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Larkin & Bertuzzi Contract Watch? Red Wings TDL Discussion.

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59 minutes ago, GMRwings1983 said:  

We should get him for cheap.  Just use him in certain games against teams I don't like.  

He actually looked really good last night. Slow as he is he’s still pretty effective on the forecheck. Looked a little like Sundqvist, but then be beat the sh*t out of that guy and I remembered the big difference between him and Sundqvist.

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On 1/19/2023 at 11:13 AM, kipwinger said:

The dudes from the Winged Wheel Pod are reporting that Larkin's initial ask was 9.5-9.7 and Yzerman's initial offer was 8.4 million. There's no reason to think this thing doesn't get done at 9-9.1 million. Makes you wonder if this isn't all a big ploy to influence future negotiations. Like, if SY is willing to hardball his captain over 500K then if you're a young guy or a depth guy you're going to think twice about pushing too hard.

Anyway, take it for what it's worth. That podcast is rightfully criticized around here (and it should be) but they do seem pretty plugged into the organization. Not hard to imagine that they have a source.

I don't mind WWP, but they do go a bit soft on the Wings, management, etc.  No doubt because they are trying to maintain "relationships".

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6 minutes ago, mackel said:

I don't mind WWP, but they do go a bit soft on the Wings, management, etc.  No doubt because they are trying to maintain "relationships".

They’re just soft in general. You should have heard their take on Provorov the other day. Laughably stupid take.

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3 hours ago, kipwinger said:

They’re just soft in general. You should have heard their take on Provorov the other day. Laughably stupid take.

I saw it.  I watch all their pods on YouTube.  I see both sides of that, BUT the religion angle was clearly an excuse.  Just come out (no pun intended) and say it Provorov.

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31 minutes ago, mackel said:

I saw it.  I watch all their pods on YouTube.  I see both sides of that, BUT the religion angle was clearly an excuse.  Just come out (no pun intended) and say it Provorov.

The pearl clutching by the pod guys was the annoying part. Is there anybody in the world who doesn't know that Christianity has a pretty hard a fast rule against homosexuality? Next they'll ask Ivan Provorov to wear a Planned Parenthood jersey, and when he also won't do that then I"m sure the Winged Wheel guys will have a fit of the vapors.

Look, I think religion is stupid. Like REALLY stupid. It's a dumb worldview for dumber people. But religious people exist, they have since forever, and we all know exactly what they believe. Acting offended that a religious guy won't be an LGBTQ activist when his religion very explicitly prohibits homosexuality is...wait for it...almost as dumb as believing there's a man in the sky who cares which people you f*ck.

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13 hours ago, kipwinger said:

The pearl clutching by the pod guys was the annoying part. Is there anybody in the world who doesn't know that Christianity has a pretty hard a fast rule against homosexuality? Next they'll ask Ivan Provorov to wear a Planned Parenthood jersey, and when he also won't do that then I"m sure the Winged Wheel guys will have a fit of the vapors.

Look, I think religion is stupid. Like REALLY stupid. It's a dumb worldview for dumber people. But religious people exist, they have since forever, and we all know exactly what they believe. Acting offended that a religious guy won't be an LGBTQ activist when his religion very explicitly prohibits homosexuality is...wait for it...almost as dumb as believing there's a man in the sky who cares which people you f*ck.

Pretty much my take. Why is anyone acting surprised? Did you just discover abrahmic religion yesterday? Cause if that's the case I cant wait to tell u the even nuttier stuff they believe...

I think the dumb shocked pikachu face reactions from athiests like WWP, only serve to make these christians feel persecuted too. Which is kinda their thing, it only radicalizes them more.

Best course of action: mind your own business, just like Provorov was. I think he actually looks like the good guy in all this. Although I dont take folks religious beliefs personally...

Also, *cough* Datsyuk *cough* *cough*

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47 minutes ago, Walman6million said:

Pretty much my take. Why is anyone acting surprised? Did you just discover abrahmic religion yesterday? Cause if that's the case I cant wait to tell u the even nuttier stuff they believe...

I think the dumb shocked pikachu face reactions from athiests like WWP, only serve to make these christians feel persecuted too. Which is kinda their thing, it only radicalizes them more.

Best course of action: mind your own business, just like Provorov was. I think he actually looks like the good guy in all this. Although I dont take folks religious beliefs personally...

Also, *cough* Datsyuk *cough* *cough*

Hockey Playing Christian: I think gambling is a sin

Management: We want you to be in a commercial for Draft Kings Sportsbook

Hockey Playing Christian: No thanks, I'd rather not.

Management: Why do you hate capitalism? Aren't you a team player?

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1 hour ago, kipwinger said:

Hockey Playing Christian: I think gambling is a sin

Management: We want you to be in a commercial for Draft Kings Sportsbook

Hockey Playing Christian: No thanks, I'd rather not.

Management: Why do you hate capitalism? Aren't you a team player?

Me: wanna go out with me sometime?

Girl: im a lesbian

Me: thats fine

Girl: if ur fine with that then okay

Me: sex now?

Girl: i only have sex with women

Me:

Screen_Shot_2018-10-25_at_11.02.15_AM.pn

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8 hours ago, kipwinger said:

Hockey Playing Christian: I think gambling is a sin

Management: We want you to be in a commercial for Draft Kings Sportsbook

Hockey Playing Christian: No thanks, I'd rather not.

Management: Why do you hate capitalism? Aren't you a team player?

To be clear I think he's an orthodox catholic, which is an actual religion... unlike the for profit "Christian" churches in the US, which are profit centers and tax shelters. 

Either way it's an excuse to make bigotry, well excusable. 

I'd have respected him a lot more had he been honest and said I hate those people for who they are, rather than hide behind "religion".  Atleast he'd own it.

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4 minutes ago, mackel said:

To be clear I think he's an orthodox catholic, which is an actual religion... unlike the for profit "Christian" churches in the US, which are profit centers and tax shelters. 

Either way it's an excuse to make bigotry, well excusable. 

I'd have respected him a lot more had he been honest and said I hate those people for who they are, rather than hide behind "religion".  Atleast he'd own it.

Maybe he doesn't "hate those people". Maybe he just doesn't feel like being a champion for their lifestyle by wearing a shirt promoting that behavior. Choosing not to endorse someone else's sexuality is not the same thing as hating them for it. Hate the sin, not the sinner...or something like that. Likewise, I don't think that dudes like Colin Kaepernick "hate America" because he chose not to stand for the national anthem. These conversations are much more nuanced than that. We just happen to live in a world where nobody cares about stupid crap like ambiguity.

 

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12 hours ago, mackel said:

To be clear I think he's an orthodox catholic, which is an actual religion... unlike the for profit "Christian" churches in the US, which are profit centers and tax shelters. 

Either way it's an excuse to make bigotry, well excusable. 

I'd have respected him a lot more had he been honest and said I hate those people for who they are, rather than hide behind "religion".  Atleast he'd own it.

First, he's Orthodox, not Catholic. They aren't the same thing.

Second, they're all for profit tax shelters.

Third, the "Christian" churches in the US you're referring to are a lot more liberal than what you call "actual religions" and are almost always accepting of homosexuality.

Lastly, I have no idea how you're reaching this bizarre conclusion. All base religions are just bigots using religion as shield now? Provorov wanted all this negative attention just so he could be "lol homophobic"?

 

Edited by Walman6million

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Here's my newest, and perhaps smartest idea yet on how to improve this team. Fire sale everyone that isn't essential. Bert, Maatta, Suter, Erne, Zadina, Vrana, Ned, maybe even Kubalik and/or Perron. Get what you can get, firsts are great but don't turn your nose up at 2nds or 3rds. Then turn around and package the best of those assets at the draft to move up. We'll likely be drafting somewhere around 8-12. Trade that pick, plus the best assets you got in the trades, and maybe a decent prospect to get into the top three. Bedard's going first, and nobody is trading that pick. But Fantilli and Carlsson are both REALLY good centers. Land either one of those guys and our rebuild is basically complete. At that point we'd have depth at center (Fantilli/Carlsson, Kasper, Veleno), productive young wingers (Berggren, Ras, Raymond, Mazur), and studs on defense (Seider, Edvinsson, Wallinder, Johansson, Buium).

That's a powerhouse organization in the making right there.

Edited by kipwinger

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13 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Here's my newest, and perhaps smartest idea yet on how to improve this team. Fire sale everyone that isn't essential. Bert, Maatta, Suter, Erne, Zadina, Vrana, Ned, maybe even Kubalik and Perron. Get what you can get, firsts are great but don't turn your nose up at 2nds or 3rds. Then turn around and package the best of those assets at the draft to move up. We'll likely be drafting somewhere around 8-12. Trade that pick, plus the best assets you got in the trades, and maybe a decent prospect to get into the top three. Bedard's going first, and nobody is trading that pick. But Fantilli and Carlsson are both REALLY good centers. Land either one of those guys are our rebuild is basically complete. At that point we'd have depth at center (Fantilli/Carlsson, Kasper, Veleno), productive young wingers (Berggren, Ras, Raymond, Mazur), and studs on defense (Seider, Edvinsson, Wallinder, Johansson, Buim).

That's a powerhouse organization in the making right there.

Youre on the right track.  The key play this season is Chychrun, tho.  Instead of mortgaging all our forwards for mid round draft picks each round, I say we mortgage our picks for Chychrun.  Here me out.  For as many times as we've connected on a 10-20 draft pick (one - Larkin), we've missed in that range numerous times.  And by missed, I dont mean the players are complete busts.  I just mean they arent first line/pair material (Mantha, Ras, Zadina, Smith, Cholowski, etc.).  So if we know that our first round picks are going to fall in that range for years to come, the time is now.  GMs know that Boston's first rounder is a lot less valueable than Anaheim's.  Our first rounders still have weight right now, so its not absurd to think that 2 or 3 of them and some mid level prospects could bring us Chychrun.  2023 1st, 2025 1st, 2024 2nd, 2026 2nd, Johansson, McIsaac, and Zadina for Chychrun.  Acquiring that ONE player takes us a step further.  With our backend at:

Chychrun-Seider

Walman-Hronek

Chiarot-Lindstrom

Edvinsson

 

Husso

Ned/Cossa

 

We are a playoff team.  Not a possible playoffs.  We are in for sure.  That should be the focus.  After our on ice product is shored up, then Yzerman can work on improving the draft order each draft.

 

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2 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

Youre on the right track.  The key play this season is Chychrun, tho.  Instead of mortgaging all our forwards for mid round draft picks each round, I say we mortgage our picks for Chychrun.  Here me out.  For as many times as we've connected on a 10-20 draft pick (one - Larkin), we've missed in that range numerous times.  And by missed, I dont mean the players are complete busts.  I just mean they arent first line/pair material (Mantha, Ras, Zadina, Smith, Cholowski, etc.).  So if we know that our first round picks are going to fall in that range for years to come, the time is now.  GMs know that Boston's first rounder is a lot less valueable than Anaheim's.  Our first rounders still have weight right now, so its not absurd to think that 2 or 3 of them and some mid level prospects could bring us Chychrun.  2023 1st, 2025 1st, 2024 2nd, 2026 2nd, Johansson, McIsaac, and Zadina for Chychrun.  Acquiring that ONE player takes us a step further.  With our backend at:

Chychrun-Seider

Walman-Hronek

Chiarot-Lindstrom

Edvinsson

 

Husso

Ned/Cossa

 

We are a playoff team.  Not a possible playoffs.  We are in for sure.  That should be the focus.  After our on ice product is shored up, then Yzerman can work on improving the draft order each draft.

 

I've thought about Chychrun a lot. He's an awesome player and I wouldn't hate it. But given what we've got in the pipeline I'm willing to gamble that our LD will be just as good with or without him in a few years. It's a risk, but not an insane one given how good Edvinsson and Wallinder are and how good Walman has turned out to be. What we don't have is a genuine #1 center prospect. A Fantilli or Carlsson would give us that. If I'm the GM I'm putting every single asset I have to use finding that guy. A top six and top four that looks like this in a few years would be siiiiiick:

 

Ras-Carlsson-Raymond

Berggren-Kasper-Mazur

 

Wallinder-Seider

Edvinsson-Hronek

 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Here's my newest, and perhaps smartest idea yet on how to improve this team. Fire sale everyone that isn't essential. Bert, Maatta, Suter, Erne, Zadina, Vrana, Ned, maybe even Kubalik and/or Perron. Get what you can get, firsts are great but don't turn your nose up at 2nds or 3rds. Then turn around and package the best of those assets at the draft to move up. We'll likely be drafting somewhere around 8-12. Trade that pick, plus the best assets you got in the trades, and maybe a decent prospect to get into the top three. Bedard's going first, and nobody is trading that pick. But Fantilli and Carlsson are both REALLY good centers. Land either one of those guys and our rebuild is basically complete. At that point we'd have depth at center (Fantilli/Carlsson, Kasper, Veleno), productive young wingers (Berggren, Ras, Raymond, Mazur), and studs on defense (Seider, Edvinsson, Wallinder, Johansson, Buium).

That's a powerhouse organization in the making right there.

This would be lovely. As much as I'd love Bedard, getting another center in the system with 1C potential is ESSENTIAL. We need guys that can take over when Larkin starts to decline in the coming years. 

My one and only concern with Larkin as 1C and nobody in the pipeline to take that spot is how short our contention window would be. Moving up into the draft to take the best center not named Bedard would very much curb that issue. 

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1 minute ago, marcaractac said:

This would be lovely. As much as I'd love Bedard, getting another center in the system with 1C potential is ESSENTIAL. We need guys that can take over when Larkin starts to decline in the coming years. 

My one and only concern with Larkin as 1C and nobody in the pipeline to take that spot is how short our contention window would be. Moving up into the draft to take the best center not named Bedard would very much curb that issue. 

Agreed, and Fantilli/Carlsson are bona fide 1C players. These aren't tweeners like Kasper. They're GOING to be top line centers. A handful of other guys (Smith, Yager, Heidt) all have 1C potential, but they're not locks in the same way that Fantilli/Carlsson are. We have the assets and are about to get a bunch more. Go get your guy and you've got a powerhouse team in the making. I would literally just throw assets at whoever has the #3 pick as long as they aren't part of our 23 and under group.

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2 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Agreed, and Fantilli/Carlsson are bona fide 1C players. These aren't tweeners like Kasper. They're GOING to be top line centers. A handful of other guys (Smith, Yager, Heidt) all have 1C potential, but they're not locks in the same way that Fantilli/Carlsson are. We have the assets and are about to get a bunch more. Go get your guy and you've got a powerhouse team in the making. I would literally just throw assets at whoever has the #3 pick as long as they aren't part of our 23 and under group.

Absolutely. There is also that slim chance of winning the draft lottery. Just imagine. I'd take Bedard and STILL try and move up for one of the two centers you mentioned.  

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1 minute ago, marcaractac said:

Absolutely. There is also that slim chance of winning the draft lottery. Just imagine. I'd take Bedard and STILL try and move up for one of the two centers you mentioned.  

Well you'd have to imagine that in any "move up" scenario our 1st round pick would be the center piece of the trade package. Like, the 8th overall pick plus a bunch more stuff for the 3rd. If we win the lottery our first round pick would be spoken for. Honestly though, if there was ever a time to even land the 2nd pick with the lottery this would be the year. I don't even really give a sh*t about Bedard. I'd be thrilled with any of the top three centers. Stylistically Bedard is roughly comparable to Matthews, Fantilli to Eichel, and Carlsson to Barkov. Stick any of those guys on our team with what we've already got and we're winning the Cup at some point down the line. 

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6 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

Well you'd have to imagine that in any "move up" scenario our 1st round pick would be the center piece of the trade package. Like, the 8th overall pick plus a bunch more stuff for the 3rd. If we win the lottery our first round pick would be spoken for. Honestly though, if there was ever a time to even land the 2nd pick with the lottery this would be the year. I don't even really give a sh*t about Bedard. I'd be thrilled with any of the top three centers. Stylistically Bedard is roughly comparable to Matthews, Fantilli to Eichel, and Carlsson to Barkov. Stick any of those guys on our team with what we've already got and we're winning the Cup at some point down the line. 

Yeah, brain fart on my part there haha. Don't mind me. Been a long week! 

But yeah, winning either of the two lottery picks would be huge. Love Bedard though. That kid simply wants to win. He carried Team Canada on his back in the World Juniors. Canada gonna have a rough go at the next tournament without him. 

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2 minutes ago, marcaractac said:

Yeah, brain fart on my part there haha. Don't mind me. Been a long week! 

But yeah, winning either of the two lottery picks would be huge. Love Bedard though. That kid simply wants to win. He carried Team Canada on his back in the World Juniors. Canada gonna have a rough go at the next tournament without him. 

He's obviously an amazingly talented player, but I've operated for years under the assumption that the best player (at any given position) in the draft isn't THAT much better than the next best player (at that position). And generally I've been right about that. Even when I've been wrong I haven't been THAT wrong. Sure McDavid is WAY better than (pre-injury) Eichel, but Eichel is still a stud 1C. Same with Matthews. He's definitely better than Tage Thompson, but I wouldn't be crying if the latter was on my team right now. And most of the time they're closer that that (see Lafreniere and Stutzle or Raymond). If we land Bedard I'll be over the moon, but I'll be exactly as happy if we managed to land Fantilli or Carlsson because as good as Bedard is offensively, it's not hard to imagine a scenario where one of the other two turn out to be comparably good pros. 

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2 hours ago, kipwinger said:

I've thought about Chychrun a lot. He's an awesome player and I wouldn't hate it. But given what we've got in the pipeline I'm willing to gamble that our LD will be just as good with or without him in a few years. It's a risk, but not an insane one given how good Edvinsson and Wallinder are and how good Walman has turned out to be. What we don't have is a genuine #1 center prospect. A Fantilli or Carlsson would give us that. If I'm the GM I'm putting every single asset I have to use finding that guy. A top six and top four that looks like this in a few years would be siiiiiick:

 

Ras-Carlsson-Raymond

Berggren-Kasper-Mazur

 

Wallinder-Seider

Edvinsson-Hronek

 

 

 

That top 6 is way too "crap shoot" for me tbh.

 

We have Raymond and Larkin who we KNOW fit in an NHL top 6.

Ras and Veleno have looked the strongest of our current bottom 6 to me this year.  Both look like their skating has improved that extra 1/2 step they needed.  Ras had two bursts last night that were eye openers.  One in the third where he was tripped going around a dman and the game winner.  Veleno has been AWESOME this year.  He never scores, but recently - his line always recovers the puck in the dzone and transitions the play to cycling in the ozone.  Larkin and Veleno lines seem to be more adept in this than Suter, Copp, and Erne lines right now.  That says a lot about Veleno to me.  He hasnt found his offensive NHL game yet, but the 2-way product looks good to me.  His possession metrics for the season dont exactly support what Ive been seeing recently, so we'll see if there is an improvent on paper later.  But those 2 guys have POTENTIAL to land in next year's top 6. IMO.

 

Berggren looks great so far.  I think his solid 2 way play has been a big part of Veleno's recent play looking better.  I see him in the top 9 at worst.  So it's a fair assumption he takes a top 6 winger spot.

 

Kasper and Mazur no way.  They are not Lucas Raymond.  They are Veleno/Ras.

 

So I really think your top 9 looks like this:

 

______ - Larkin - Raymond

Berggren - Veleno - _______

Rasmussen - Copp - Kasper

 

as a make shift top 9.

 

And reality is Yzerman needs to ne approaching it as:

 

_______ - ________ - Raymond

Berggren - Larkin - ________

Rasmussen - Copp - Veleno

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

That top 6 is way too "crap shoot" for me tbh.

 

We have Raymond and Larkin who we KNOW fit in an NHL top 6.

Ras and Veleno have looked the strongest of our current bottom 6 to me this year.  Both look like their skating has improved that extra 1/2 step they needed.  Ras had two bursts last night that were eye openers.  One in the third where he was tripped going around a dman and the game winner.  Veleno has been AWESOME this year.  He never scores, but recently - his line always recovers the puck in the dzone and transitions the play to cycling in the ozone.  Larkin and Veleno lines seem to be more adept in this than Suter, Copp, and Erne lines right now.  That says a lot about Veleno to me.  He hasnt found his offensive NHL game yet, but the 2-way product looks good to me.  His possession metrics for the season dont exactly support what Ive been seeing recently, so we'll see if there is an improvent on paper later.  But those 2 guys have POTENTIAL to land in next year's top 6. IMO.

 

Berggren looks great so far.  I think his solid 2 way play has been a big part of Veleno's recent play looking better.  I see him in the top 9 at worst.  So it's a fair assumption he takes a top 6 winger spot.

 

Kasper and Mazur no way.  They are not Lucas Raymond.  They are Veleno/Ras.

 

So I really think your top 9 looks like this:

 

______ - Larkin - Raymond

Berggren - Veleno - _______

Rasmussen - Copp - Kasper

 

as a make shift top 9.

 

And reality is Yzerman needs to ne approaching it as:

 

_______ - ________ - Raymond

Berggren - Larkin - ________

Rasmussen - Copp - Veleno

 

 

To be clear I was talking about a few years down the road. Obviously Larkin fits into the top six now and in the near future. Just maybe not when he's 30+. A few other things I'd say. Kasper just matched Lucas Raymond's D+1 scoring rate despite playing a harder position on a worse team. He's also bigger, stronger, and faster. Based on everything he's done up to this point in his career (which is all we have to judge him on) there's absolutely no reason to think he won't be a top six player. He's not flashy, but flashy isn't the same thing as effective. Larkin's not flashy, wasn't when he was drafted either. I don't see any reason why Kasper couldn't develop into that.

Likewise, Mazur is...a stud. He's not David Pastrnak, but he's very likely another Tyler Bertuzzi or Riley Smith type winger. He was one of the top NCAA freshmen a year ago and played like a monster on Denver's way to the National title. Then he was USA's best forward in the World Juniors. And now he's tied for 2nd in the nation in NCAA goal scoring. On top of that he brings decent size, plenty of grit, and tons of speed. While I think he can play up and down the lineup, those type guys (think Alex Killorn for Tampa) are not out of place at all in the top six on a contender.

Which brings me to Ras. Ras has been the best player on the ice for the last 5-6 Red Wings games. Not coincidentally he's playing a power forward role in our top six. And he's scoring. A lot. And he's only going to continue to improve if they keep him in that role. He's an absolute force every time he's on the ice, not just with his physicality but with his skill. He's beating goalies clean with his wrist shot (he did this a lot last year too) and his playmaking is massively improved. He's another guy who can play up and down the lineup, but he's showing every game that he's a top six winger. If he finishes the season with 20(ish) goals and 50(ish) points as "the other guy" opposite a scoring winger it's hard to argue that he doesn't belong. Especially when you consider he spend most of the first part of the season centering a 3-4th line with guys like Erne and Sundqvist.

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48 minutes ago, kipwinger said:

To be clear I was talking about a few years down the road. Obviously Larkin fits into the top six now and in the near future. Just maybe not when he's 30+. A few other things I'd say. Kasper just matched Lucas Raymond's D+1 scoring rate despite playing a harder position on a worse team. He's also bigger, stronger, and faster. Based on everything he's done up to this point in his career (which is all we have to judge him on) there's absolutely no reason to think he won't be a top six player. He's not flashy, but flashy isn't the same thing as effective. Larkin's not flashy, wasn't when he was drafted either. I don't see any reason why Kasper couldn't develop into that.

Likewise, Mazur is...a stud. He's not David Pastrnak, but he's very likely another Tyler Bertuzzi or Riley Smith type winger. He was one of the top NCAA freshmen a year ago and played like a monster on Denver's way to the National title. Then he was USA's best forward in the World Juniors. And now he's tied for 2nd in the nation in NCAA goal scoring. On top of that he brings decent size, plenty of grit, and tons of speed. While I think he can play up and down the lineup, those type guys (think Alex Killorn for Tampa) are not out of place at all in the top six on a contender.

Which brings me to Ras. Ras has been the best player on the ice for the last 5-6 Red Wings games. Not coincidentally he's playing a power forward role in our top six. And he's scoring. A lot. And he's only going to continue to improve if they keep him in that role. He's an absolute force every time he's on the ice, not just with his physicality but with his skill. He's beating goalies clean with his wrist shot (he did this a lot last year too) and his playmaking is massively improved. He's another guy who can play up and down the lineup, but he's showing every game that he's a top six winger. If he finishes the season with 20(ish) goals and 50(ish) points as "the other guy" opposite a scoring winger it's hard to argue that he doesn't belong. Especially when you consider he spend most of the first part of the season centering a 3-4th line with guys like Erne and Sundqvist.

Youre making all the points to DITCH our draft packs, you realize?

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