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Buppy

Member Since 14 Feb 2009
Offline Last Active Jul 12 2014 03:03 PM
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#2507049 A plea to Holland.

Posted by Buppy on 07 April 2014 - 07:53 PM

 

My biggest issue is that this is the automatic way it's done.  The roster is always full of veterans so there's little room for any of the prospects to even get a chance until someone gets hurt or until they've run out of waiver options.  I'm sure it's because Babcock and Holland don't generally trust rookies/young players until they prove their worthiness, but maybe that's changed this year.  I think it has with Babcock, and I hope it has with Holland.  Not completely, I don't think they should abandon the process and rush Mantha, Pulkkinen, Athanasiou, Mrazek, and some of the young defensemen all up here next year, but start leaving room for some of them to get a decent taste of NHL action and go from there.

Well, it's not the automatic way it's done. More often than not the really good players do earn roster spots before they run out of waiver exemptions. Usually because they're good enough to earn an injury call-up prior to that, and perform well when they do. Occasionally it's just because we have an opening.

 

Fischer, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, Filppula, Helm, Smith, Brunner, Dekeyser... all of them did it. Possibly Hudler and Kronwall as well. Maybe even Abby (I think 07-08 counted as his first year, but maybe not).

 

Tatar and Nyquist are more exception than rule. The guys that normally get left down until they're out of options are the guys like Kindl, Emmerton, Andersson, Kopecky, Ritola, Mursak...

 

Free agency is a narrow window, and once you let that opportunity go you can't go back. Sign a proven player and leave a kid you think is ready in the minors: It doesn't work out, or you have injuries, you have the option of using that kid. Pick the kid instead of a proven player what happens if it doesn't work? Fall back on another kid you didn't think was as good as the first one?

 

And now we're getting to a point where kids are competing against other kids. Emmerton lost his spot to Andersson. Andy may be headed the same way, or if not then there's less opportunity for Glendening, Ferraro, and Callahan. Could be hard to find spots in the lineup for all of Tatar, Nyquist, Jurco, and Pulkkinen, even if we leave one or both of Jurco and Pulu in GR next year and that's not even considering Mantha possibly jumping one (or both) of them.

 

In short, nothing about how we handle young players needs to change. Mostly because we already handle them the way you're all suggesting anyway. The way we handled Nyquist this year should have been different, which is to say it should have been the way we handled other good kids in the past. But that's in the past, it worked out pretty well regardless, and there's no good reason to think it's a pattern or particularly likely to happen again.




#2507028 Jack Adams award discussion and speculation

Posted by Buppy on 07 April 2014 - 06:04 PM

I've never liked the whole "coached the team well despite injuries" argument.  By that rationale Blysma should win it, considering Pittsburgh has more injuries to equally important players, and has a better record. 

I think Bylsma should get consideration, though I wouldn't say they've had more injuries to important players. It's fairly even, with the Wings being worse at forward and the Pens worse on defense. I think it comes down to what value you want to assume for Weiss and Vokoun.




#2503522 Legwand to Detroit for Eaves, Jarnkrok + cond 3rd/2nd

Posted by Buppy on 30 March 2014 - 02:51 PM

 

I get what you are trying to say I really do but you know desperate times are calling for desperate actions and once desperation is getting the best out of you...rational thinking takes a backseat. Holland himself said their goal was trying to get defensive help or do nothing but then further injuries happened and Wings had to change their plans.

 

It is what is now but I will say this, I PRAY Jarnkrok becomes a star so a mistake like that won't happen twice.

Yeah, it was a desperate situation. Fighting for a playoff spot, Weiss having a setback, losing Datsyuk and Helm (and uncertain if any of the three would be back healthy this year), plus Zetterberg already out for the year, plus Franzen just coming back, and it was our last chance to add anything. 

 

And you are suggesting that the "logical" thought in that situation is play yet another kid with no NHL experience (and not exactly lighting up the AHL) rather than a proven performer who had 40 points already this year.

 

The desperation likely contributed to the overpayment. Good job by Poile to recognize he had us in a bad spot and take advantage. However, given how well Sheahan has done, as well as Glendening looking like a quality 4th-liner, and all the other good looking prospects we have, I'd say we could afford it. Jarnkrok had one more year of waiver exemption. We have Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Weiss, Helm, Sheahan, Andersson, and Glendening as center options for 3+ years. Tatar, Nyquist, Jurco, Pulkkinen, and maybe Mantha in the same time frame as Jarnkrok. Then add several 4th line/reserve options. There wasn't much of an opportunity here for him. Even had we kept him it would have cost someone else an opportunity. 

 

Regardless of whether Jarnkrok becomes a top line player, or even a bona fide star, making the trade was a solid decision. And good decisions are as important as results. You shouldn't judge everything based on hindsight and speculation. We'll never know if we could have done the trade without including Jarnkrok so there's no point in speculating. What we do know is we had an immediate need and more "future potential" than we have spots for. You trade from strength to address a weakness, and that's exactly what we did. How it works out is also important, of course, but just not the only important factor.




#2502750 Perspective

Posted by Buppy on 29 March 2014 - 12:05 AM

...

 

Maybe, just maybe, the days of roster overbuilding and prospect overripening are gone, and proud veterans aren't waived because the team can't find a trade partner, and energetic young players are expected to learn how to play the NHL game at the AHL level.  If the performances of Nyquist, Tatar, Andersson, Lashoff, and DeKeyser didn't prove that last year, throw in Jurco, Sheahan, Glendening, and the cups of coffee this year, and the evidence is pretty strong... give the kids a chance.

At the risk of going too far off-topic, I think we need to keep this "kid" thing in perspective. It's not like these kids are fresh-from-the-draft teenagers. They're 22, 23, 24; most with multiple years in the minors to mature. If the evidence of anything is pretty strong, it's that "over-ripening" works.

 

And it's not like we've ever been particularly averse to giving young players an opportunity, even when they've had a year or more left of waiver exemption. There's a fair-sized list going back to the 90s when we were just getting good, through Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Fischer in the early 2000s, then Filppula and Hudler, followed by Helm, and you could even count Brunner last year. The only thing noteworthy about the current youth injection is the number of good prospects we've accumulated in recent years. And while that quantity is definitely a good thing, it also means there just isn't room to give all the kids a chance. 




#2502538 Gustav Nyquist Appreciation Thread

Posted by Buppy on 28 March 2014 - 12:45 AM

53 goals and 90 asssits in 137 games isn't just a playmaker either. That's a good all-around player who spent a lot of time with the puck. He had 371 shots in GR, virtually identical to his shots per game this year.




#2498613 Is the Real Brendan Smith Finally Starting the Show Up?

Posted by Buppy on 21 March 2014 - 10:35 AM

 

Yep, he played so great with Kronwall that Babs split them up 8 minutes into the first period and only once, sporadically, in the second period allowed them to play together again.  And, as I've said, he was fourth on the team in time on ice as well. 

 

So I guess my question is, if he was playing so good with Kronwall as everyone says, why was he demoted from the top pair and why didn't he get more ice time?

 

Babs probably just has it out for him huh?  He'd rather give the ice time to an "undeserving" Quincey because he's purposely trying to ruin the season?  Maybe it's Gary Bettman's fault? 

 

Or maybe, just maybe, you and all the other Smith apologists are seeing what you want to see, and making excuses for a guy you want to succeed. 

He wasn't demoted. 18 of his 27 shifts were with Kronwall, including one in OT. PPs/PKs looks like the main reason they were separated at times.




#2493984 Question: 2 scoring line/2 checkers or 3 scoring/1 checker?

Posted by Buppy on 10 March 2014 - 02:34 AM

Fortunately, players come in more than two varieties so it's not really an either/or scenario. You want some good scorers (your Datsyuks and Zetterbergs), some secondary scorers (Franzen, Nyquist, Tatar), some complimentary players (basically someone cheap, not necessarily good on their own, but able to play alongside skilled guys and provide decent production - Bert, Cleary, Homer types, in better seasons, Abby), some two-way guys (secondary/tertiary scorer that also provides good defense - Flip, Weiss, possibly Helm, Sheahan), and finish off with some solid checkers (cheap guy, solid defense/PK ability and/or high energy/physicality - Miller, Glenny, Andy). Then try to piece it all together to get a balanced attack with all four lines able to chip in some offense.

 

Something like:

Good/secondary scorer - Good scorer - Complimentary guy

Secondary scorer - Good scorer - Complimentary guy

Secondary scorer - Two-way guy - Checker

Secondary/Checker - Two-way guy - Checker

 

Obviously can be shuffled around based on exact personnel and their positions, and player chemistry, and some players might fit in multiple categories. Basically, I think if a team has Cup aspirations they need to get at least decent production from the third line, and occasional production from the 4th. A team like Pittsburgh is going to struggle more often than not in the playoffs, and most teams that try to build that way aren't going to have players as good as Crosby and Malkin, especially trying to build through trades and UFAs.

 

With Pav and Hank healthy, I think we have the "good scorers" covered, but of course the more the merrier and one more would sure be nice due to injury concerns. Secondary scoring is our biggest strength, along with checkers. Complimentary guys, mostly Bert and Abby this year, could use improvement. Alfie and/or Legwand could fit in those spots if they came cheap enough. Our two-ways are maybe a little weak, but mostly just from injuries.

 

To afford it all, the checkers and complimentary guys should be pretty cheap and you need a few others on bargain deals (easiest with young players on 1st or 2nd contracts), with the rest ranging from mid-level to high.

 

Reality complicates all of that. Getting the right guys isn't easy. Sometimes they're just not available, and even if they are someone else might get them first. Then you have to fit them all under the cap and hope they all gel with each other and your coaching staff and philosophy.




#2493316 If Kronwall isn't a #1

Posted by Buppy on 08 March 2014 - 09:33 PM

Kronwall was better all-around than Rafi, just wasn't a better partner for Nick. And the list of defensemen that weren't as good as Lidstrom back then included everyone, with only a very few even being debatable.

 

If Lidstrom is your standard for a #1 defenseman, I think you'll spend the rest of your life disappointed.




#2486905 2014 draft thoughts.

Posted by Buppy on 26 February 2014 - 04:11 PM

Buppy we are thin. very thin. I have already moved up most of the guys ready. tatar, nyquist, Callahan, Pulk, Jurco, Andersson-forgot him earlier, and Sheahan. That is just about everyone off of the Griffins. mantha, AA, Nastisauk need at least a year more of seasoning. Then they will be up. The rest of the guys we own the rights to are either: 1. not producing, or 2. several years away. Many are still playing college hockey, junior hockey, or yet to be drafted. Couple over in Europe. 3. This doesn't allow for any guys to fail. Which of course several will. Not everyone makes it. Some get hurt. That is why more depth is needed. Be it via draft, trades or UFA. We need more F's. Stars would be great, but just depth would be a major help right now.

So if I decide to ignore half our defensive prospects, does that make us thin there? Or are you the only one who's allowed to decide which prospects count?




#2486756 Injury Updates

Posted by Buppy on 26 February 2014 - 04:00 AM

Buppy, now whop is cherry picking? have you ever read anything about Weiss's career? he is always hurt. basically every season he is hurt. Just in case you haven't followed, here are the highlights:

2002/02-His first full season. Plays 77 games-has a broken toe

2003/04-plauys 50 games-broken leg and sprained knee

2004/05-lockout

2005/06-plays 41 games-major wrist injury

2006/07-plays in 74 games-knee and shoulder injuries

2007/08-plays in 74 games-shoulder injuries again

2008/09-plays 78 games-groin injury-best season to date

2009/10-plays 80 games and is largely healthy all year

2010/11-plays 76 games-only minor injuries but numbers drop-49 points

2011/12-playus 80 games-no major injuries

2012/13-plays 17 games-major wrist injury

2013/14-played 26 games-hernia surgey, missed 32 games so far

 

Now I ask you, who is Weiss? is it more likely he is the guy that gets hurt in 6 of his 11 seasons or the guy that remains healthy for 5 of the 11 seasons? He is also 31 soon-in April. We signed a guy to a long term deal for good money that 1. can't stay healthy overall and 2. His best days are already behind him. That means 1 thing: Bad deal.

74 or more games in 7 out of 10 years prior to signing here. He also played in the AHL during the lockout. 80 games. 8 out of 11. 62 and 64 (out of 68) games his first two years in the OHL. 53 total games 01-02, not sure how many he might have missed from injury, since he was on the Florida roster for part of the year then went back to junior, but I'll still say he could have played 68. He's played 72 out of 73 playoff games his teams have played. All told that's 988 out of 1140 possible games. ~87%, 10 of 13 years being better than that, and one more year being unsure but maybe lower.

 

Typically, around half the league misses 8 or more games every year. In 11-12, there were around 8300 man-games lost to injury (out of 44280). Almost 19%. Average of about 13 games lost for each of the 620 regular roster players. Injuries happen, and happen to most players at some point. Minor injuries happen to most players every year.

 

But even if you do assume he will miss time, you should still assume he would put up decent numbers...since he has done exactly that over his career. The least we should expect is 14-15 goals, 40-ish points. Maybe not great for almost $5M, but his recent history does suggest he should be better than that, at least in the short term.

 

If you don't like Weiss, fine, just say that. Stop acting like there's some statistical evidence that proves he was going to suffer a major injury this season, or will in the future, or that his production would decline dramatically.




#2486752 Trade deadline fast approaching - who should we target?

Posted by Buppy on 26 February 2014 - 12:18 AM

Love Callahan if available, would be a great fit.

Meh, if he's really looking for a deal in the 7yr/$6.5-7M range, I want no part of him.

 

This was how I felt last year, but then we made the playoffs and took off. So while the chance to make the playoffs hasn't completely evaporated, the brass should do all they can to upgrade the team even though we all know they won't.

That depends on what you mean by "do all they can" and "upgrade the team".

 

If you mean upgrade for this year, there's a hell of a lot that could be done that would be incredibly stupid from an organizational standpoint. If you mean upgrading the organization as a whole, upgrading for the future without sacrificing this year or upgrading this year without sacrificing the future (or both), that "all they can" list is likely to be pretty short.

 

Sounds to me like you just want to see something happen so you have some news to get excited about. But easing fan boredom is a poor excuse for making a trade.

 

I just don't see why we would make a move now. Our season is crap and going to get worse. Unless we are getting Crosby for Quincey, there isn't a good fit atm. Deadline deals are very expensive. More than off season deals. Why pay the higher prices now, when we need several pieces. better off waiting until summer. let the kids come up and play and see what they can do.

I would agree (though not necessarily with "crap and going to get worse" part), and it would seem Holland does too. However, not all deadline deals are expensive and/or rentals. Something like the Stuart deal would make sense; a veteran defensive defenseman wouldn't likely cost a lot. Most teams looking for defenseman at the deadline tend to focus on puck-movers.

 

A scorer probably isn't likely, since the demand is usually so high. But there's a lot of teams with little cap space, so who knows.




#2486207 Ok a way way too early look at the 2015 draft......

Posted by Buppy on 22 February 2014 - 12:19 PM

A top 6 full of 20 goal scorers is great? Isn't that your complaint about our current top 6? But at least yours is big.

 

If we tank a little we should grab Khalil Mack. Not the biggest guy at 6'3", 248 and maybe doesn't have quite the explosive speed off the corner that Clowney has, but he doesn't have Clowney's character issues either. He'd be unblockable in the NHL. :)




#2484921 Trade deadline fast approaching - who should we target?

Posted by Buppy on 18 February 2014 - 04:32 PM

IMO don't see any of them being available.

Zidlicky and Pitkanen could be available and would be decently inexpensive rentals, unless they do well we could always re-sign them too. Both move the puck well, which I believe is what we need

Isn't Pitkanen out for the season? Or did something change?

 

Zidlicky would be a good fit, and workable under the cap if we move Quincey. I'd have to think NJ would want help up front though, they're too close to being in a playoff spot to really be considered a seller. We don't really have a lot to spare, especially if Hank is going to miss much time.




#2484750 Trade deadline fast approaching - who should we target?

Posted by Buppy on 17 February 2014 - 03:17 PM

One guy that I believe could be available and gotten for mid tier prospects and picks is steve ott. I think Ott would be a great fit on this team, especially if Z is out for a long period of time. I don't think we would have to leverage the farm to get him either. I think it would cost us something like andersson, pulkinenen (terrible spelling), almquist and middle of the road picks.

WAY too much to give up for Ott. At most I'd go Andy plus one pick or prospect (and not a top one either). Also, how do we shoehorn in another $2M+ in cap?




#2484239 10 ton elephant in the room.

Posted by Buppy on 15 February 2014 - 12:34 PM

Would you settle for a box?  There may is or and may is not be a dead cat in it.

 

Sorry.  Nerd break.

... 

Sorry, had to correct your nerdness.