Buppy

I don't buy the "making the team worse" argument, nor the cap argument. First of all, especially last year, when all was said and done, we still had $4.5 million in cap space. But even in years before last, guys that likely would've been moved to make a trade happen would have balanced out most of the cap issues. And while I don't think you could say that making a trade that ships out talent for talent would make the team better immediately, I don't think it'd make them so much worse either. It probably would have been even then, with a stronger defense but somewhat weaker offense. But it'd make the blow of losing your top three defensemen over the course of one year much easier to swallow. Again, I'm not talking about just replacing Lidstrom, but also Rafalski and Stuart. Holland didn't even find a way to bring in a Stuart-level guy. I don't wholly disagree with some of what you're saying, and I'm not trying to suggest that perfection is the only option, but I absolutely am saying that if Holland was a truly great cap-era GM, I don't think he would've had the number and the magnitude of gaffs that he's had since really running up against the cap crunch. And don't take it from me, take it from him! He blatantly admitted that he was shocked and unprepared for what happened in the off-season in the summer of 2009. It's been much of the same drill each off-season since then, only getting worse in some ways as the seasons go by.

 

And to be clear, I'm fine with having a year or two or even more of struggle to get things right. If we have to field a weaker team in order to sign better guys for awhile as we sort out this transition and evolve, so be it. What bothers me most about Holland's approach is that he's seemed content to change as little as possible because the team with the core of Dats, Z and Lidstrom was generally going to be good enough to at least make the playoffs. But now Lidstrom's gone, and while the core is still strong, it hardly makes the team infallible. If heaven forbid we do lose Datsyuk in 15 months, and three months later we start the season having not addressed yet another hole in any meaningful way, will it still be excusable?

 

Pittsburgh landed Iginla tonight. Doesn't guarantee them anything, but we weren't even on Iginla's list according to most. No matter what you think of the deal or the other teams or how it might play out, that we weren't even a real part of the conversation is very telling of the status of our team. And again, I'd be fine with that status if it actually felt like we were building to something. But it doesn't, at all. We're just getting old and tired. As opposed to paying dues, we're just eeking by. 

You're very obviously nowhere close to "fine" with struggling.

Being a weaker team is typically how you land those better players. Getting superstars to build around typically requires being very bad for a time. It's not that Holland is content or doesn't want to change anything. It's that you can't spin straw into gold. He could spin some straw into some different straw, and maybe that would make you happy as it would at least be something to talk about, but it wouldn't make any real difference.

Yes, when Rafalski retired we got some cap space, after having none for two years. In hindsight, Holland might have given up a pick for a chance to talk to Wisniewski or Ehrhoff. Would either really make us any better? Make the future any brighter? Knowing he wouldn't get Suter, he probably goes harder after other options. Would Wideman or Carle really make that much difference?

To build, you need something to build on. The struggles we're having now and will likely have in the near future is how we'll find that foundation.

Since we were really feeling the cap when we were still paying Zetterberg around $2.5 million/season?

 

....

 

But all in all, the "you could do better" thing hangs over the last four years like a cloudy sky on the verge of rain.

That is a ridiculous standard, and if you were to apply it to any other GM in the history of any sport you're not going to find even one you think is adequate.

In the span of a few seasons we lost Yzerman, Shanahan, Hull, Robitaille, Fischer, Larionov, Hasek, among others, plus maybe the best coach of all time. Chelios went from a Norris candidate to depth player, Draper and Maltby from invaluable role-players to guys filling out the roster. We'd lost in the first round, second round, and first round. We had a lot of good prospects and could afford to lose some. Plus we made the transition to the cap era.

Holland made some moves, some were decent, some not so much. We signed some cast-offs that no one else wanted, brought up some young guys, signed one big UFA. It worked and we won a Cup. It wasn't luck that we had a bunch of cheap guys. It's what you have to do in the cap era. Then we had to start paying guys and trying to fill the rest of the roster with bargains. Some of those guys were decent, some not so much.

It's just not reasonable to expect that we should have had a replacement for Lidstrom before he left. The only way to get that is to get lucky, either with a prospect or someone else's cast off. If you want someone already proven, you would have had to give up a lot to get them, and we couldn't have fit them under the cap. We would have had to make the team worse in previous years. Maybe in hindsight you can say they should have, because we haven't done much in the playoffs anyway, but really you all would have just been bitching about mismanagement back then.

Some people are completely backward in thinking that the biggest needs, the biggest losses, should be the easiest to fill. Fact is, those holes have the fewest available options and the least margin for error. That's why almost no one, in any sport, in any era in history, has much success filling them without a hitch.

Nothing Holland could have done would have been better than landing Suter and Parise (particularly since we wouldn't have had to give up anything), and he put us in position to make a strong play for both of them. Unfortunately, it didn't work out. But we're still in a good position to add more, and we still have a well stocked prospect pool. Maybe, probably even, things will get worse before they get better. That's the nature of the beast. We need stars and those almost always come through the draft. Once we have our next generation of stars, then will come the time to start making trades and looking for a good UFA or two to put us over the top. Hopefully at that time, some of the young prospects we have now will emerge to fill some roles at bargain prices.

Sure, we could make a move or two now and it might work out. Or not. Look at the Rangers, Philly, San Jose... Maybe Holland could have done better. But who actually has?

Pittsburgh? Cup winner, last three years lost in the 2nd, 1st, and 1st round. Found some nice fits at forwards, including one absolute steal of a trade, wrecked their defense. Looking good this year, maybe they'll go somewhere, maybe not. Their best players can't stay healthy, probably going to have cap troubles again in a couple years.

Chicago? Cup winner, sat watching the TV hoping for Dallas to lose to put them in the playoffs the following year. Two first round losses. Looking good this year... Likely cap trouble again next year.

Boston? Cup winner, lost in the first round last year. Looking good... maybe some cap trouble next year.

LA? Cup winner, had to fight down to the wire to make the playoffs, likely the same this year. About $15M to fill almost half their roster next year...

Anaheim? Doing great this year after plenty of struggles since their Cup win. Big commitments to their stars likely to create some cap issues down the road...

Anyone else...

Pretty much all that separates us from any of them is they have young stars while ours are aging. Most of them were irrelevent not long ago, and will likely end up back there before too long. Come back when their stars are aging and see how much better they do than Holland. I bet none of them do half so well.

What Holland has already done proves that he's a great GM. He's had some luck, and a great staff to work with, but he's still been great. No matter how successfully we make it through our current transition or the next.

Who knows, maybe he doesn't want to jump right in. Have the Wings ever signed an NCAA player this time of year, and played them in Detroit or GR before?

Abby. It was only two games, right at the end of the year when we already had the President's Trophy locked up, but I think he stayed on as black ace for the Cup run.

If Franzen can go 15+ games without a goal multiple times the last couple years... 

Except he hasn't. Since his breakout he's had one major slump. At the end of '10-11, where he went 14 games, then another 8 right after finally getting one. From March '08 to that point his longest slump was 6 (twice), and he only hit (or missed, maybe you'd say) 5 three other times. Last year he went 6 games early in the year, then 8 near the middle. Those were the only times he went more than 4. This year he went 6 (3 before his injury then 3 after).

He's not nearly as streaky as people seem to think. Some people just hate Franzen, but Brunner still has that new car smell. For Franzen, going 2 games without a goal is like Brunner going 20.

If you want someone prone to goal slumps, it's Zetterberg. This year already he's gone 11, then 9. Last year 13 then 9, plus a 6 and four differest 5s. '10-11 he went 11, 9, three more 5s. '09-10 he had a 12, a 9, three more 5s. His tendency to go cold is why he's gone from scoring 30+ to low 20s. But he's a hero so we don't care about that...

I mostly just read the forums, I never really post. But why in the world can't the Red Wings find a real top 6 wing to play with Datz??? I mean the guy even ask for it pretty much, along with Babs calling it out last season play-offs. You would think that most free agents or anyone would jump at the chance to play on the wing with Datz. Every night I see Abs and Cleary line up along the side of Datz, my brain breaks. The Wings have had like 3-4 Seasons now to find him anything better then Cleary or Abs, it really shouldn't be that hard. This almost reminds me of the Flames with Ignila, which is another sad story. The Wings found someone to play with Z its overdue to find someone to play with Datz. I also feel if the Wings have any chance of keeping him longer then next year they gotta make this happen now rather then later. But in the end I guess the Wings have had 3-4 seasons to get a lot of things done but haven't. The way they been playing I can say for sure right now without Datz, you'll see even fewer people at the "sold out Joe Louis Arena". This has me feeling pretty down when I watch the Wings play to tell the truth. Anyways sorry If I went off topic.

You act like he's been playing with Abby and Cleary for years, it was a handful games while some guys were injured. Over the last few years he's typically had players like Zetterberg, Franzen, Hudler, Filppula, Bertuzzi, and Holmstrom. None of them were bad.

The idea that Pav would consider his linemates for one short stretch of season in his decision-making is beyond preposterous. I wouldn't blame him if he doesn't want to stick around for a rebuild when he won't likely last long enough to enjoy its fruits, but I'd be shocked to learn that he's such a diva that he'd be particularly concerned about his linemates for a dozen or so games.

...

Does anyone really believe that Drew Stafford, or Smid, or Regehr couldn't be had right now?  Furthermore, does anyone really believe that they wouldn't help us?

 

I'm at a loss. 

Not that they wouldn't help, but they wouldn't help enough to matter.

You don't give up picks and prospects for middle-aged players just to slightly increase your chances of making the playoffs or the 2nd round. Especially for guys who may leave in the summer.

Something I don't really get:

 

We're all, "Yay! The young guys are finally getting a shot, and showing their stuff! So there are gonna be some big changes this summer!" But the only reason the young guys are up on The Big Club to begin with is injuries (e.g. Helm, Bertuzzi, Filppula, Samuelsson, Colaiacovo....) So what happens when these guys get healthy and return to the lineup? What happens to our youth movement then? Am I way off in assuming Tatar & Co. will get flushed back down to Grand Rapids and Holland will say something to the effect of "This whole ordeal has shown us our young guys can step in when called upon. (But there's just no room for them as is)"? Which is ok, I guess. I just can't wrap my head around why everyone seems to think all these young guys are now full-timers.

We're not likely to get fully healthy before the trade deadline. At that point, the roster limit is removed so we can still keep all the kids up (assuming we have cap space, which we should). If Lashoff was going to get demoted, he certainly would have been already. At most he could spend a short time down then be back up after the deadline. Of course, if White/Cola/Huskins/trade addition were to come in and play really well it might push him out of the lineup, in which case he'd probably be sent back down for the playing time.

Forwards are a bit tougher. No question that Flip and Helm will be in the lineup if healthy, along with Pav, Hank, Mule, and Brunner. I would guess Abby, Cleary, and one other PKer (Miller/Emmy/Eaves - probably rotating unless one steps up) would be in. Sammy for a RH point shot makes sense, and Bert likely makes it. Leaves one spot for Tootoo, Tots, Andy, and Gus to fight over. I think if the kids want to stay in the lineup, they need to show they can kill penalties or outscore the size advantage of Bert and Sammy.

I think we are, but the players like playing for the Wings.  Thankfully

 

Many people think of Datsyuk as one of the league's top 2 or 3 players.  Yet he doesn't get paid like one of the top 10 forwards in the league.  

 

Look at Filppula, who I forgot to mention.  Just about any team would pay him more than Holland has signed him too.  Even Franzen, people have remarked, gets paid little for what he's produced offensively in past seasons (although now it's looking deserved).    

 

With that said, Holland has overpaid some players as well.  Samuelsson is getting the same as Filppula, even though he's old and has no upside.  Quincey definitely doesn't deserve that bloated contract either.

 

But to make my point, yes we do undervalue our top players.  Datsyuk, Kronwall, Zetterberg and Filppula should be getting paid more, and would if they tested the free agent market in the past.  

I think you're failing to consider the situation when those players were signed.

Flip had played two full seasons, had a career high 36 points, was a RFA, and the cap was $56.7M. $3M for 5 years was generous. He was certainly a bargain last year, but he didn't sign his deal last year.

The cap when Pav signed was $50.3M. He'd put up back to back 87 point seasons, but those numbers were only good enough for 17th overall. It was before any of his Selke wins. And at the time he had a history of disappointing playoff scoring (3g, 12a in 42 games). If you look at his salary as a % of the cap, and rate it to what the cap is today he'd get around $8.5M, putting him behind only Ovechkin, Crosby, and Malkin. Again pretty good all things considered.

Zetterberg is in the upper-tier of the league in salary. He has a nice cap hit with the long-term, back-diving deal, but he's not under-valued. Same with Franzen.

Kronwall a little, but his deal does dive a bit. Helm is probably the most undervalued deal on the team.

While all of them probably could have gotten more as UFAs, that's mostly because the bidding drives prices up and guys get overpaid. Getzlaf likely could have gotten more as well. Point is, you can't directly compare contracts signed in different years. The circumstances when the contracts were signed are what matters.

The only thing that surprises me is how many people thought the lockout would translate to lower cap hits. I thought he could get around $10M as a UFA so this seems about right.

Well, this is shocking news indeed...

 

But seriously, you'd think Kenny, even in the private little world that he lives in, would know that his deadline quotes have become something of a joke with fans and at least come up with a few new lines.

You'd think fans could tell the difference between an actual quote from Holland and fake quotes made by other fans to mock him. Holland said the "getting our players back will be our deadline acquisition" line once. In 2009-10 when we had no cap space to add anyone. All the rest is just fans whining about the lack of any exciting moves.

Even this quote is being wildly misrepresented. What Holland actually said was, "Ultimately, the next two to three weeks will determine certainly my thinking for the Detroit Red Wings,". Basically it will depend on who's available and at what cost, or it could even turn out that we'll be sellers.

He then pointed out that we have some key players injured, and getting them back will make a difference on its own. And he's right. Helm's been out all year, and we've been without either Franzen or Filppula for half of it. If Helm wasn't on the team and Kenny traded for him at the deadline, and it didn't cost us anything, you'd be ecstatic.

The thing with Kindl everyone needs to remember is, he is only 25, not even close to his prime yet. How good was Ericsson 3 years ago? he was still making tons of mistakes. In fact, I think Kindl may be ahead of Ericsson at the same age.

As a goup: Kronwall, Ericsson, Kindle, lashoff, Smith, and Q are pretty good athletes. 5 of the 6 under 30. 5 of the 6 over 6ft tall. The only negative is, they are all lefthanded. If we are able to swap 2 for equal RH Dmen, we would be set. But that is about all we need on the blueline right now. They are mobile, big, enough toughness, and enough offense.

Just turned 26 actually. He should be ahead. Problem is he should be a lot ahead. Should be better than Ericsson by now. This is his 6th pro season and 3rd in the NHL. It's only Ericsson's 4th full year in the NHL. You expect better development from a 19th pick.

We already have to worry about growing pains with Smith and Lashoff, and a #2 man who's really nothing more than a decent #4, and Q not scoring... I appreciate your optimistic viewpoint, and I'm not saying our current group is terrible, but I think we need more than a swap for a couple equal RH's in order to be set.

Not bad for an undrafted free agent.

Exactly. I hate the "hindsight" thing. A lot of us here wanted Hossa over Franzen at the time. Hossa was and still is a better player. For the deal Hossa signed with Chicago, it's not like the Red Wings couldn't have found a way to make that work compared to Franzen's. Holland chose the wrong guy.

Better player, sure, but hardly impactful enough to call it a huge mistake. Goal production has been similar. Hossa has more assists, but also would have created a bigger cap problem in those first two years. Better defensively, yet he's been on the ice for a lot more goals against. Kills penalties, but Chicago's PK has been even worse than ours prior to this year. Their PP has been bad as well. They've finished behind us in the standings the past two years and lost twice in the first round.

They're playing great now, and look capable fo winning a Cup, but it's not because they have Hossa instead of Franzen. Over the life of their deals, Hossa will very likely produce more, but it's hard to quantify the impact of the extra cap hit. If we spend the next several years a couple million under the cap that choice will look worse, but if we spend to the cap who's to say.

I didn't say that. Cleary sucks a$$. That being said, why can't Nyquist beat him out? Or eaves or Emmerton, or...... that is the point. Read what is written and stop ass-u-me-ing. I don't think Nyquist will ever be better than a 40 point guy in the NHL. That is my opinion. But I have also said several times, the only way to find out is for him to play in the NHL. Play him. Then he makes it or breaks it.

He's a rookie who can be sent down without losing him. If we had to waive him to send him down, you can be sure it would be someone else on the way out.

Remember Datsyuk only scored 35 points as a rookie. Hank only 44. Franzen 16. Flip scored 23 points in his first 105 NHL games. Even if you assume Nyquist is a star in the making it's still unlikely that he'd be so good as a rookie that it would be worth losing another player over. We don't have Brett Hull to play with him on the 4th line, and we already have one rookie in the top 6. He's not a center nor a physical player. We're not going to waste development time by keeping him up to sit in the pressbox. Probably not a good idea to put him in a spot where we're depending on him on the PK.

It's just not an optimal situation for him right now. If we'd had a training camp and pre-season, maybe he would have won a spot. If we were a better team that could better afford to carry him if he didn't work, or a worse team not worried about the consequences, he might have a spot. In short, the main reason he's being sent down is because he can be.

If this becomes a career altering injury, he should hang em up this offseason. Would open up a spot for a Tatar or Nyquist + more cap flex

By "hang them up" you mean "take the Ian Laperriere, spend two years on LTIR so we don't get screwed by the 35+ clause, retirement plan". Yes, I agree.

That said, I hope he gets better. Always better if you can retire on your own terms, and few enough get to do it. Plus, chronic back pain sucks.