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Buppy

Member Since 14 Feb 2009
Offline Last Active May 24 2016 06:43 AM
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#2662392 Forward Line Combos/Discussion

Posted by Buppy on 27 March 2016 - 12:06 AM

 

Tatar is second on the team in goals. Richards is the top point getter for our bottom two lines - which is where he plays. For a team that is lacking offense, maybe getting rid of those guys isn't a great idea.

I'd agree with you on Tatar. He's been one of our best players this year. But he and Nyquist have both spent much of the year in the bottom 6, and they're outperforming Richards by a lot. Richards 5v5 scoring rate is the worst on the team besides Miller and a few guys that only played a few games. He's been doing well lately, so I wouldn't expect replacing him to do much, but probably wouldn't hurt. Glendening has also been playing well lately, but I'd take him out as well. 




#2662002 Looking ahead at expansion draft

Posted by Buppy on 25 March 2016 - 07:22 PM

Chipman seems to be running the jets like a small market team so I doubt they'll buy out Enstrom.

I mean, that team didn't even want to pay to captain so I'll doubt they are willing to pay a potential future Norris winner in trouba.

An offer sheet at around 8 x 8 with 20 mill signing bonus should be enough to get this guy too bad Holland doesn't do offer sheets :(

Many things wrong with this.

 

One: Can't offer 8 years. 7 years is the max.

Two: Can't offer $20M signing bonus (unless spanning multiple years). Max is about 14 million, depends on the cap.

Three: Trouba being a potential Norris winner is a stretch. Offensive skills seem only decent at best.

Four: Trouba right now is not worth close to $8M. That'd make him the 2nd highest paid defenseman in the NHL.

Five: Compensation for that would be 4 1st-round picks. Trouba is not worth close to that.

Six: That would create some serious cap problems for us.

Seven: Offer sheets are stupid. There is a reason why almost no one makes them.




#2661673 The Holiday tradition: 2016 Draft thoughts.....

Posted by Buppy on 23 March 2016 - 01:41 PM

Like I've said before, I don't know a ton about any of these guys, other than articles, youtube clips, stats, so I don't have anything against Fabbro really, other than not like drafting out of the Canadian Junior A Leagues. The BCHL is a lower tier league and not known for a great development program. The only noteworthy defenseman I know that has come out of that league is Justin Schultz (there likely are others). In saying that, I wouldn't be disappointed with the pick, just would love to see one of the other three fall to us (don't see it happening)...

Both Fabbro and teammate Tyson Jost (who I think would be another good pick) are committed to college. They can't play CHL or they'd lose eligibility.


#2661228 Fixing this mess....

Posted by Buppy on 21 March 2016 - 12:23 AM

 

You land Stamkos by making a hockey trade, trade whatever you have to.  A combo of Tatar, Gus, Mantha, Picks, Prospects. Whatever you have to do. Larkin and Stamkos going forward would be scary.  Mrazek in net. Shore up the D and it would be unstoppable I think.  

Stamkos has missed the playoffs 4 times, and swept in the first round once. The two decent runs TB has had he was 5th and tied for 3rd in team scoring. He's a good player, and worth pursuing, but not to the point of giving up anything ridiculous for him. Conditional pick or some prospect who's not going to get a chance here is all his rights are worth. 
 

Where my math freaks at ?
 

Datsyuk regular season stats:

	        5G/60	AG/60	5P/60	AP/60	T5G/60	TAG/60	AGM	A5G/Y	AAG/Y	A5P/Y	AAP/Y
05-06 to 11-12	0.96	1.11	2.59	3.32	3.48	4.61	7.71	15.86	26.86	42.57	80.14
11-12 to 15-16	0.67	1.06	1.87	2.76	2.62	4.02	18.25	8.25	18.50	24.25	48.00
This season	0.42	0.86	1.40	2.21	2.23	3.45	16	6	16	20	41
Rel. last 4	69.79%	95.50%	72.20%	83.13%	75.29%	87.20%	236.57%	52.03%	68.88%	56.96%	59.89%
Rel. this year	43.75%	77.48%	54.05%	66.57%	64.08%	74.84%	207.41%	37.84%	59.57%	46.98%	51.16%

5G/60-5P/60 = Individual 5v5 Goals/Points scored / 60 minutes

AG/60-AP/60 = Individual Goals/Points scored / 60 minutes, all situations

T5G/60-TAG/60 = Team 5v5/All situations Goals scored / 60 minutes

AGM = average games missed, per year

A5G/Y-A5P/Y = Average individual 5v5 Goals/Points per year

AAG/Y-AAP/Y = Average individual Goals/Points per year, all situations

Rel. last 4/Rel. this year = Performance the last 4 years/this year relative to performance from 05-06 to 11-12

 

The decline is there. He had a good year last year, but 4 of the last 5 years were down fairly significantly from where he was in his prime. Combined with the increase in injuries, it's a major difference.




#2660872 Forward Line Combos/Discussion

Posted by Buppy on 18 March 2016 - 07:04 PM

Those are 4 scoring lines on paper alright.

 

Helm should be switched with AA. 

Glendening and Richards should be switched with Jurco and Pulkkinen




#2660810 Fixing this mess....

Posted by Buppy on 18 March 2016 - 12:19 AM

If Stamkos is going to get $10 per year, letting the contracts of KFQ, Richards and Helm come off the books covers that. Howard will get traded as will Smith. $8M more right there. If Stamkos doesn't want to come here, then at least you still have a ton of cash to pursue other options. It's been proven since the deadline that Holland cannot stand pat this off season. All we can hope for this season is that they squeak into the playoffs, but I doubt it.

Holland needs to redefine his team this summer or needs to be fired.

 

 

 

See, I'm torn here. I love the Wings, I've never seen them miss the playoffs and I want the streak to keep going. But what I'm afraid of is if we make the playoffs this year, Holland might get the idea that we don't need to make any chances and keep what he's got. It's just happened too much for me to not expect that. I just wonder if maybe (and I hate that I'm about to say this) if they miss the playoffs, maybe thats a wake up call to Holland.

Nothing that happens this year is likely to change what happens in the off-season.

 

People seem to think Holland has been deliberately trying to not improve the team. We don't want a wake-up call. That's desperation, and it almost always leads to making things worse. We need to continue to do exactly what we have been doing. Develop our kids, draft well, and try to make smart additions.

 

Most of what people want to see happen wouldn't actually make us any better. The secondary and lower line players that everyone hates are not our problem. We have an excess of prospects that could make some of those guys expendable, so there's a chance to make a move or two. But any move like that will not, by itself, really change anything. Might be exciting enough to appease some fans who just want to see something happen, at least until the team struggles. Then it will be right back to "Holland's done nothing". 

 

The problem with the team is Datsyuk and Zetterberg. Kronwall and Green, maybe coaching, to lesser extent. But mostly D and Z. Nothing is likely to get substantially better, the team won't be "redefined", until Datsyuk and Zetterberg are no longer the leaders of the team. Considering the $13.6M cap hit they have, it's also unlikely that we'll be able to afford a replacement from outside the system. Almost no team in the league has secondary players making near that much. Dallas, mostly because they have Benn and Seguin very cheap right now. You don't get cheap players through trade or UFA unless it's someone at least mostly unproven.

 

One thing we have going is that we have a lot of cheap young kids, so if we can shed some salary, we might be able to make a good offer to Stamkos. But he's one player, and he'll have a lot of options if he hits UFA, so it's unreasonable to expect it to happen.




#2658336 Forward Line Combos/Discussion

Posted by Buppy on 09 March 2016 - 04:19 PM

 

While I like the idea, I have hard time seeing them sit Richards, even though he has been just as invisible as a lot of players, I think Jurco gets sat if Mantha comes up. Although, I think maybe giving Nyquist or Tatar a night or 4 off may get them the message...but it may be too late with only 16 more games left...

Nyquist and Tatar are not our problem right now. 




#2657866 Good News or Bad News?

Posted by Buppy on 07 March 2016 - 12:55 PM

I still don't get why he doesn't use the right hand shots on their intended spot on the pp. I'm really tired of watching Green (and Marchenko) playing the right point. 

Green switches off fairly often, doesn't help. Our puck movement on the PP is abysmal.




#2657401 Jensen

Posted by Buppy on 03 March 2016 - 10:03 PM

What else do Pulk and Frk do well at an NHL level then?

I don't know or care much about Frk. Taking 3 years to adapt to the AHL doesn't inspire much optimism.

 

But Pulkkinen's offensive awareness and passing are good. He'll go to the net, follow up plays, anticipates well. He's engaged all over the ice. Decent along the boards, especially for a little guy. His speed, quickness, and puck-handling are ok. Basically everything to be a decent secondary scorer.

 

Needs to get a bit stronger and more importantly he needs more experience in how to deal with NHL competition.

 

I'm sure you'll disagree, but it's all beside the point anyway. The entire reason for the existence of the AHL, or at least for the affiliation between the NHL and the AHL is to develop prospects. Take kids whose skills aren't yet ready for the NHL, and get them ready. If a kid has good NHL-level skills from the start, they aren't even going to be in the AHL in the first place. And development doesn't stop when you get to the NHL either. Pretty much every player will still improve from where they start. 

 

Pulkkinen wouldn't have produced in the AHL the way he did if all he could do was shoot. Wouldn't have made an AHL team at all. Wouldn't have been drafted. Wouldn't be on an NHL roster now. Wouldn't have produced what he has so far, which is similar to what Tatar and Nyquist did in the early stages of their careers. But even if you don't agree about what kind of skills he has right now, the important thing isn't what he is right now. It's how he develops from now.




#2657392 Jensen

Posted by Buppy on 03 March 2016 - 07:52 PM

But they can all do more than just shoot, which is where Pulk and Frk are at

Again, gross oversimplification. Like saying Larkin and AA can't do anything but skate fast.




#2657382 Jensen

Posted by Buppy on 03 March 2016 - 05:44 PM

What guys who can only do one thing well and are sub par everywhere else would you call a good player?

This is a fallacious question. Not only begging the question as to whether or not a player is actually sub-par everywhere else, but also ignoring the entire crux of the argument. My point is that it is how well a player develops that determines how successful they will be, rather than how good they are at the moment.

 

Even so, players like Nyquist, Tatar, Hudler, the Sedins, Ribiero, and many, many more are good players even though they don't do much besides score.




#2657371 Jensen

Posted by Buppy on 03 March 2016 - 04:01 PM

 

I didn't say either were average AHL players.  I said they can score against AHL competition but not NHL players because of those reasons.  I said that all last year when people were frothing at the mouth over Pulkkinen's shot and insisting he's going to be a 30 goal scorer, and now the same applies to Frk.  One trick ponies don't work at the top level.

...

But you're ignoring what is by far the most important factor in determining how well a player will translate to the NHL: development. You're essentially saying that whatever a player is in the AHL is all they can ever be. But if that were even remotely true, then every decent player with even "one trick" would have scored at a high level, and any player with a full set of skills would have dominated at a level that would make Pulkkinen look like Drew Miller.

 

Your last sentence is just wrong. For one, it's not really accurate. A gross oversimplification. Secondly, there are and have been literally hundreds of successful "one-dimensional" players in the NHL. 

 

Continued development and improvement is so much more important than whatever number of "tricks" you want to simplify a player down to.




#2657317 Jensen

Posted by Buppy on 03 March 2016 - 02:43 AM

NHL defenses close the gap quicker than AHL defenses, and NHL goalies close holes that AHL goalies leave wide open. That's why guys can score a ton in te minors and do nothing in the NHL. It's like college football players. Tim Tebow dominated at Florida when he was bigger and faster than college linebackers. He got to the pros and they were all as big as him or bigger and faster and he was terrible.

Only partially true. If it was only a matter of AHL defense/goaltending sucking, then every halfway decent player would score like Pulkkinen did last year. Players who do that are better than other AHL players. It's just that being better than AHL players doesn't guarantee that a player will continue to develop, or continue enough to do the same in the NHL at least. Some are at their peak already, and will flare out in the NHL, some will improve proportionately and be similar, and some are below their peak and will be even better in the NHL.




#2656168 Defense pairs

Posted by Buppy on 28 February 2016 - 06:14 PM

I don't know anything about this but how would it balance out over time? the top pair will always play against the top line of the other team, or as much as possible anyway. It's not like both teams just roll all 4lines equally which would have to be the case for it to even out.

 

A first dpair will always have a tougher matchup than a third pair will.

It balances because over time, there will be shifts where the opposing team gets their top players out against your bottom players, or vice-versa. Injuries/line-juggling move a player up/down in the lineup.

 

And it's not like teams have only one good player or line. A top player may have a lot more time against a specific player (like Dekeyser may play more minutes against Crosby), but if you look more of an overall picture (like Dekeyser against "good offensive players") it will be more even.

 

Yes, if you compare a player with a coach making a concerted effort to shelter him to a player with a coach giving them all the toughest assignments, there will be a difference (though I'd bet less than you'd think). But that's the absolute extreme. 

 

http://war-on-ice.com/series.html will show head-to-head matchups for all games between two teams in a given season. You can use that to look at who a player played with and against to get an idea. For example:

Attached File  detvcar.jpg   179.68KB   0 downloads

On the actual site, you can mouse-over the squares to see actual minutes.

 

For the Wings, Kronwall, Ericsson, Dekeyser, and Quincey are all used about the same. Smith, Green, and Marchenko tend to be more sheltered. I'm not going to go through every bit of data for all the hundreds of players in the league, but I have to believe that if there was a big difference, it would show up in the stats. 

 

I suspect that no matter what, people who don't like what the data says are going to dismiss it anyway.




#2655548 2/27 Stadium Series GDT : Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche, 8:00 EST

Posted by Buppy on 27 February 2016 - 02:29 PM

Projected lineups:

RED WINGS
Henrik Zetterberg - Pavel Datsyuk - Justin Abdelkader
Dylan Larkin - Andreas Athanasiou - Brad Richards
Tomas Tatar - Riley Sheahan - Gustav Nyquist
Tomas Jurco - Luke Glendenning - Teemu Pulkkinen
 
Niklas Kronwall - Alexey Marchenko
Jonathan Ericsson - Mike Green
Danny DeKeyser - Kyle Quincey
 
Petr Mrazek
Jimmy Howard
 
Injured: Drew Miller (knee)
 
Scratched: Brendan Smith, Xavier Ouellet, Darren Helm
 
Rotoworld reporting that Helm's been sick, but seems ready to go now. So likely in over Jurco or Pulks.
 
AVALANCHE
Alex Tanguay - Nathan MacKinnon - Gabriel Landeskog
Mikhail Grigorenko - Matt Duchene - Jarome Iginla
Blake Comeau - Carl Soderberg - Shawn Matthias
Cody McLeod - John Mitchell - Jack Skille
 
Erik Johnson - Francois Beauchemin
Nick Holden - Tyson Barrie
Chris Bigras - Andrew Bodnarchuk
 
Semyon Varlamov
Calvin Pickard
 
Injured: Jesse Winchester (head), Brad Stuart (back)
 
Scratched: Zach Redmond, Reto Berra, Andreas Martinsen