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Buppy

Member Since 14 Feb 2009
Offline Last Active Today, 01:05 AM
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#2328193 2012 Lockout Watch

Posted by Buppy on 10 September 2012 - 03:04 PM

Both sides are going to have to be open to move from their initial positions in order to get a deal done. So far, the movement away from their initial positions have been small to say the least. You mention that the owners already have, but that movement was just a blip on the radar. I find it funny how people who are dead set against the owners in this want to see them make the first major move. As if that would be the olive branch that the players need to make a deal. From what I have seen so far, neither side has it right. Neither side has put forward a proposal that would even come close to fixing the issues that are out there.

What we need are less fans siding with the owners or players and more fans getting angry at both sides and putting pressure on them to make a deal. The people who are siding with one camp or the other are typically blinded by their hatred of the other side so much that they cannot see the real problems. You, for instance, want to see the owners come forward with a meaningful proposal. That is all fine and dandy, but why can't both sides work together to get a deal done? Why does it have to be the owners alone? Why not the players? Oh, thats right, the players are right in your mind, and every proposal they put forward has the pulse of the league in mind right? :P

As for your questions on how I would know if the 57% would work or not or if the cap floor is a real problem, you are right in that these things could work in certain systems. Even I don't know what will work and what won't work in any given situation. All I do know is that there is a time to take sides and there is a time to stand with other fans and put pressure on both sides to get a deal done. That is where the fans should be sitting right now, not reading NHLPA or NHL propaganda and believing that your side is always in the right while the other one is always in the wrong.

If you cannot see how that approach makes someone ignorant and uninformed, then I cannot help you. :)

If you think Forbes data, attendance reports, other web reports regarding revenue, and math are "propaganda" then we probably should end this debate. I've looked at the numbers available and drew my own conclusion, it just happens to be pretty close to what the players seem to want. You seem to have just made up your mind that both sides are equally "wrong" without any sort of data, evidence, or analysis at all. You say neither side is right, and not even close to fixing the issues but you can't provide any rationale in support of what you think the issues are.

You're right that blindly accepting statements from either side is a poor way to form an opinion, but that doesn't mean both sides are equally wrong, or equally far from right.



I don't have any specific "evidence" that the floor is a problem to a lot of teams other than it being obvious....a lot of teams simply can't afford to pay to the floor. When you say the floor is based on cap hits, not actual salary, well.....the cap is based on actual salary, so it's the same thing. If you suggest Edmonton can end up paying almost $10 million less in salary than they have in cap hits, that just means they pay $10 million more in salary than in cap hits in the future, it's just a timing thing. In the end, total cap hit = total dollars spent, there is no difference.

Not really. Edmonton's situation is mostly the result of bonuses. Any bonus money that can potentially be earned counts against the cap, but if they are never earned they are never paid. Back-loading contracts can also lower the actual dollars spent, and then the player could be traded before the salary rises above the cap hit.

And you can say it's "obvious" that the floor is a problem, but as of the most recent numbers available to us, it wasn't. 26 teams should have been able to afford the floor in '10-11. One of those that couldn't moved, and reportedly did much better last year. The numbers we have suggest that probably 24-28 teams should be able to afford the floor now, and that's not even counting additional revenue sharing, or other methods to reduce spending.


#2328114 2012 Lockout Watch

Posted by Buppy on 09 September 2012 - 02:44 PM

So, in your opinion, the players need not make any concessions because there are no issues with the league finances right now?

Lets face facts here, the NHL is in trouble. What the owners are proposing won't fix the problem and the NHLPA doesn't want to see the salary floor go down.

So far, the NHLPA just wants to keep everything they have right now and the owners don't want to address the problems that they have with their ownership group and clubs that are not financially secure. Its a dangerous mix, and one where both sides really need to address.

The greed on both sides is going to drive the league to initiate a lockout. Sure, the uninformed and the ignorant people will say the league is at fault for locking out the players. The ones who have looked at the issues that are dogging the league as a whole right now will be able to see greed and stupidity as the biggest problems right now.

The NHL is not in trouble, some teams are in trouble, and most of those wouldn't be if the owners were smarter..

And the players are willing to make concessions. They are willing to lower their share of the revenue. They're reportedly even flexible on the one option year. The players want to increase revenue sharing. They proposed allowing cap space to be traded, which would allow teams struggling to reach the floor to spend less and gain assets for doing so. How are they not trying to address the issues?

The players don't want to accept another salary rollback, and they shouldn't. League revenues will likely be around $3.5 billion, and as of now there's about $1.75B in salary commitments with almost all teams having full rosters. So it seems we're pretty close to a 50/50 split right now. It's not the players fault that the wrong teams are spending money. Buffalo is and has been hemorrhaging money but they have the highest salary payroll in the league. $20M this year for Myers and Ehrhoff. $6M for Leino. Minnesota, San Jose, Tampa Bay are no better. Middle of the pack in revenue but trying to spend at the top while teams that can afford it like the Wings, Leafs, Rangers, Canadiens, and Flyers can't get enough players worth spending anything on.

You want to call people uninformed and ignorant, but it seems you have no idea what the players are proposing and haven't looked at any of the numbers available. I think you just want to blame the players regardless of any facts.


#2325323 Holland losing his moxie? Is Detroit slipping as UFA destination?

Posted by Buppy on 15 August 2012 - 10:32 AM

Sure but you can't deny Holland operates in a different way then most other GM's. Holland is an extreme on the spectrum. Plays extremely close to the vest, conservative, long-term game. On the other end of the spectrum you have Holmgren. Plays balls to the wall, high-risk high-reward, blow up the team to get that cup now game. Everyone else falls somewhere in between.

Sure Holland chased Nash, and Suter, and blah blah blah.....price wasnt right though and so he didnt pull triggers on things. Thats him. He's not the kind of guy who gives up Zetterberg for *insert Dman here*.....Holmgren is that guy. Mike Richards and Jeff Carter is all I gotta say.

So yes this off season is due to his decisions....bad or good....but those decisions were made by him and his philosophy of hockey business

I don't think this is true. I think Holland has been conservative mostly because we haven't had the need to be otherwise. In the last few years, we were handcuffed for a couple by the cap, and once we did get some space the options were limited, and our trade assets have been limited. Most of our best/most-tradeable prospects have been picked in the last few drafts. We don't have a 23yo putting up 76 points to give us the option of trading our stars, nor have Pav and Hank been rumored to have off-ice issues.

Holland may not be as 'extreme' as Holmgren or Wilson in San Jose, but that doesn't mean he's the complete opposite either.


#2325276 Holland losing his moxie? Is Detroit slipping as UFA destination?

Posted by Buppy on 14 August 2012 - 10:05 PM

stuff

I think you're trying to divine a philosophy to fit what happened, as if it's all just part of the master plan.

I'd say the reality is far, far simpler. You can't always get what you want. And despite Jagger's claims to the contrary, trying won't necessarily get you what you need either. Given a mulligan for the last couple years, Kenny would likely take a different approach.

The better defense, in my opinion, is, "So what?". He made some decisions, passed on some options hoping for better, but it didn't work out. So what? There's nothing particularly bad about maybe not being one of the top contenders for a few years. Much of his job relies on making educated guesses about the future. Sometimes, the guesses will be wrong, or someone else will guess right quicker. So what? It isn't Holland's philosophy that put us in the spot we are now. It's that the rest of the league isn't required to follow it.

Some of his critics want to say they still support him: 'not saying he sucks, just that he could do better'... And they've been saying it at every opportunity for the past month and a half. I think if that's really all they wanted to say, they'd be satisfied at having said it innumerable times already, but whatever. There may be a big difference between "sucks" and "could have done better", but there's also a big difference between "could have" and "should have".


#2324342 Evander Kane is a Better Option than Zach Parise

Posted by Buppy on 08 August 2012 - 03:47 PM

Pavel Datyuk is paid $6.7Million and averages 70 points (23g) every year. Is he worth it?
Henrik Zetterberg is paid $6.1Million and averages 73 points (23g) every year. Is he worth it?
21 year old Kane scoring 68 points (25g) is not worth it?????

Datsyuk and Zetterberg are centers who play Selke defense, and even considering that, no. 20-odd goals and 70 points (playing ~80 games) is below what I think we should expect.

Datsyuk has scored 196 points in 206 games (.95 ppg) the last three seasons. His points were down in the injury-plagued 09-10 season, and goals were down last year, but I would expect him to get back to high-20s - low-30s goals, and stay close to or over a point/game for at least a couple more years.

Hank has 219 points in 236 games (.93 ppg). His goals have been down for three years, and he had a horrid start last year. I don't know if he can get his goals back up, but I think he can do better than his point totals last year. Maybe not for the duration of his contract, but it is less than what you'd need to offer Kane, and at least he had aproven track record to base it on. I'm not all that happy with his numbers since he signed his deal. I never expected him to be "worth" it in the later years, but I was hoping the early years would make up for it. Considering all the intangibles I can't complain too much though, so long as he doesn't degrade too much further too fast.

~$6.7M for 68 points (.83 ppg) for a winger who doesn't play Selke defense is overpaid. Not by a huge amount, but still overpaid. And you're banking on a big IF, in that he needs to continue to improve just to get to that point. And you have to give up a bunch of draft picks to get him. I still don't think we could get him for the compensation you think we could. Who knows what those picks could become. Edmonton gave up a chance at Tyler Myers, Justin Schultz, and a 3rd rounder (nothing special so far) for the right to overpay an underperforming Penner for a few years.

I wouldn't have a problem paying Kane that amount if we didn't have to give up anything for him. Good enough chance that he will improve. But there's too big a risk that he won't improve to justify paying that and giving up the picks.


#2323949 Evander Kane is a Better Option than Zach Parise

Posted by Buppy on 06 August 2012 - 05:01 AM

Byran Little averages 45 points each year. Last year was no different...Little scored 46 points.

Thomas Vanek on the other hand is a solid performer. Vanek averages 64 points every year...last year he scored 61.

Evander Kane on the other hand scored 26, 43, 57. Statistics show players are more productive at 23 to 26. I'll predict Kane scores 68 points next year.

At 21, his first full season, Little scored 31 goals and 51 points. The next season he scored 13g, 34p. The next 18g, 48p. 24g, 46p last year. Similar amount of games each year.

At 23, in his 2nd year, Vanek scored 43g, 84p. In the five years since, he's averages 32.4g, 63p. Again, no major time lost to skew the averages.

Thus far, neither player has matched their early production. Little's goal scoring regressed substantially, just starting to rebound 3 years later. Vanek's point totals regressed substantially, and given his age now he may never match those totals again. Both players regressed during that 23-26 age range. Kane follows that path, you should expect him to average ~45 points for the next few years.

Bobby Ryan is another example, though he's mostly just stagnated. 31g, 57p in 64 games as a 21yo rookie (40g, 73p pace for 82 games). Fairly similar the next two years, then a down year this one, where he scored the same 31g, 57p but in 82 games instead of 64. Again, he's in your magic age bracket.

What most players do doesn't mean Kane is certain to improve. He might, and I'd love to have him. But even if he does score ~68 points next year, paying him $6.5-7M is still overpayment (unless 50 of those points are goals). Especially considering he's not a center nor particularly good defensively. And you have to give up a bunch of draft picks for that right. And that's making the assumption that you could even get him that cheap. The Jets would know better than anyone his potential for further improvement, and how much it would hurt their team to lose him. If they think there's a reasonable chance he can live up to a deal like that, they'd match.

There's a reason few offer sheets are made. It's not some code of honor between GMs. It's the RFA rules.


#2323895 Our Current Defense / What Holland Can Do *merged

Posted by Buppy on 05 August 2012 - 01:13 PM

nothing is going to happen until the CBA details come out. then holland will dig through the bin to offer the best one left a small contract, and invite a handful of D-men to camp for tryouts.
during this he "might" call a few eastern teams to see if their overflow works with us without a player trade beyond kindl/emmerton/mursak and low picks.

we WILL have another mid-level d-man in the lineup on day one...but our offense is set. (after a few subtractions)

...

i am all for an offer sheet to evander kane, and matt gilroy on D. if the wings are going to try to stay "on top" they need to get bold & young.

the next few years are going to be a lull in success until our prospects start popping up, or we get aggresive in contracts.

Yeah, unless we somehow land Doan, I doubt anything happens until TC/preseason, other than maybe adding one of the vets like Hannan, Kubina, or Rozsival. Probably want to get a better idea of what Brunner and Nyquist can do before we do any more tinkering with the forwards.

Don't know much about Gilroy. The Hockey News makes him sound a little Lebda-ish, but I've also heard he has some potential. I think we really need another PKer on defense, so he doesn't sound like a good fit.


#2322525 Semin signs one year, $7m deal with Carolina

Posted by Buppy on 27 July 2012 - 03:47 PM

It's not panicking and oh no the sky is falling. It's our roster sucks, and what are you doing, Ken?, and hey it'd be nice to compete for the Cup this season but that's not happening which is stupid.

Too many high horses around here, if anything.

Our roster sucks but Semin makes us a contender?

Yeah, something is way too high...


#2321085 Flyers sign Weber to offer sheet: 14y/$110m ($56m 1st 4yrs)

Posted by Buppy on 22 July 2012 - 11:53 PM

Why would you need to use a personal attack?

Add Parise to that list as well. Since it was no secret that Suter was going wherever Parise went, you can add him to that list as well. So we have 4 players there, it seems the Wings have offers on the table for Doan and Semin and until the cards fall I will not say why they did or did not choose Detroit, but it seems Detroit as their destination is not a scale tipper for them anymore.

I find it difficult to avoid personal attacks because I get frustrated by people who I believe are unreasonable. I want to respond with rational debate, but I feel like it would be pointless.

Case in point: You say Suter and Parise did not want to play in Detroit. The truth is only that Detroit did not end up being their top choice. There's a big difference there. A player may want to play for multiple teams, but they can only choose one. Expecting everyone to want to play here more than they want to play anywhere else, and concluding that if they don't it means they didn't want to play here at all is irrational and unreasonable. I said as much in my previous reply and you still failed to grasp the concept. Hence why I feel rational debate is pointless.

There isn't any great organizational malfunction that needs to be addressed. No dereliction of duty. No flawed schemata. s*** does happen. We missed out on a couple free agents, s*** happens. It could be just a speed bump, or it could send us right off the track into a catastrophic crash. This is what is supposed to happen. This is how the system is designed. What goes up must come down. Since when is maintaining a top contender in perpetuity the new standard for adequacy in sports? What franchise, ever, in the history of any sport, has remained among the elite for nearly two decades without a single blemish?

Maybe it all isn't as easy as some think. Maybe things don't happen just because you want them to or because you can write them out on a message board and make them sound reasonable. Maybe when decisions are made, even those based on impeccable reasoning, they don't always work out. Maybe you give a solid effort but still fall short. Maybe sometimes those failures compound into situations that have no ready solution. Maybe speculating in hindsight on what might have been done better isn't the best way to evaluate performance. Maybe "consistently exceeding all reasonable expectations" shouldn't be what we expect from our management. Maybe a guy with such a sterling record deserves a little more respect. Maybe we can give a guy af****** break.

But I guess it makes us feel better to rant and finger-point. Have fun with it I guess. I'll continue trying to resist my more choleric urges.


#2321048 Flyers sign Weber to offer sheet: 14y/$110m ($56m 1st 4yrs)

Posted by Buppy on 22 July 2012 - 09:49 PM

Hardly, if that was the case I could close my eyes and grab a handful.

You act like he was just speculating about Weber's lack of interest. But the reports all indicate that Weber's camp said they weren't interested. At that point submitting a formal offer is basically pointless.

I suppose you could assume they were just lying about not not being interested, because I'm sure that happens in negotiations all the time. Then after they reject the first offer, you should assume it was an accident and send another. Then you assume they were just kidding around, then spilled coffee on it, then were playing hard to get, then needed to burn one for warmth, then wanted to make paper airplanes, then experimenting to see if they can re-combine all that paper back into a living tree... Hell, just fax him an offer every minute of every day. Send af****** parade of Korean bike messengers with confetti guns to rain tiny pink, blue, and yellow formal offer sheets all over Nashville. Due dilligence, you know.

Or you could just assume that no means no. Not like you would really be satisfied if we had submitted a formal offer and were rejected.


#2316921 Ken Holland, Post-Scotty Bowman

Posted by Buppy on 08 July 2012 - 02:04 AM

99-01, 2nd round loss, 2nd round loss, 1st round loss...
03-07, 1st round loss, 2nd round loss, 1st round loss, 3rd round loss...
Hawks 11-12, 1st round loss, 1st round loss...
Wings drafts from 95-97 (Scotty was director of player personnel), 27 players picked, 8 played at least 1 NHL game, combined total: 415gp, 17g, 47p

We were perfectly capable of some "poor" stretches even with Scotty.

It's a team game, and that goes for the front office as well. I'm sure Scotty was a positive factor, as many others in scouting and management are. All deserve thier fair share of credit, and all their fair share of blame (which IMO is none). You can't say "everyone else" deserves all the credit, but Kenny alone gets all the blame.

One thing all the Kenny bashers seem to be ignoring is the fact that what the Wings are going through now is exactly what the "parity rules" were purposely designed to cause. The draft, the cap, lowering the FA age, etc...all of that designed specifically to prevent teams from being as good as the Wings have been for as long as we have been. In Holland's tenure as GM, every single other team has missed the playoffs at least once. The Wings weren't the only good team in 98, nor were they head and shoulders above the rest of the pack. Colorado, New Jersey, Dallas...all have rebuilt (or are still trying to) since then. Other teams have come and gone.

In 08 we had Hank, Mule, Flip, Hudler, Sammy, Cleary, Stuart, and maybe more that I'm forgetting contributing at a level above thier cap hit. Then we had to start paying people. We lost some guys, and couldn't afford top FAs. When we got some cap space, long-term contracts and/or more competition for 27yo UFAs limited the players available.

Unless you're picking in the top of the first round, you can't expect recent draft picks to add anything. 25 players drafted in 2010 or 11 have played in the NHL. 17 were picked 14th or earlier. Of the other 8, only 3 have played more than 10 games. 3 out of 393. Even the 2009 class is mostly just starting to break in to NHL rosters. 49 of 197 picked 15th or later have played in the NHL, only 15 have played 40 or more games. Average contribution from the 49 so far is 37 games, ~3.8g, 11p. We also haven't had much contribution yet from the 06, 07, or 08 drafts, when Scotty was still here. And there's a lot more NHL regulars from those years now.

Much of our long-term success strategy has been reliance on veterans. That, and lacking top prospects, limit our trade options. A couple years with no cap space limited them further. This last year, when we had space and some assests we could trade, almost no one was on the market and prices for many that were rumored to be were apparently too high for anyone to pay, given the lack of trades.

In short, this is how it's supposed to work. If you think Scotty, or anyone else, would have made any real difference, you're not being reasonable.


#2315342 Matt Carle signs with Tampa Bay: 6-years, $33-million

Posted by Buppy on 04 July 2012 - 09:40 PM

From our perspective, when does a bit of overpayment stop being a reason not to sign someone? I mean, we have how much cap space?


We're pretty much there. My only hope is the overabundance of forwards we have (16 I think, if we re-sign Abdelkader). I'm hoping we can use the extra forwards as leverage in a trade for a decent d-man (i.e. Yandle).

Short-term overpayment would be ok, but not for 6-13 years...

If people are worried that we're not a playoff team right now, then with Carle we'd be at best a 7-8 seed. If we're a 7 or 8 now, then with Carle we're maybe a 5. And regardless, we may still need a full rebuild soon depending on how Pav and Hank continue to age. What Carle would bring is not worth making that commitment.


#2315215 The Next Move

Posted by Buppy on 04 July 2012 - 07:54 PM

"We've got all summer now," Holland said. "The market has been combed over pretty good. We'll explore trades. We're happy that we got the guys that we did on July 1 (F Mikael Samuelsson, F Jordin Tootoo, F Damien Brunner, G Jonas Gustavsson)."

Holland added: "Part of this might be that we might have to go with some kids that we think are ready."


From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitne...4#ixzz1zhRnGOSk



Right now I have the feeling that with Holland taking his "step back", he may miss out out on trying to sign Carle, or Carle will want more money than Holland is willing to spend for him after being turned away by Suter.


I don't think he'll trade for Yandle, or Nash for that matter, as both teams are well aware of what we currently have on roster, what we need and how badly we need it, and their prices will be way too high for Holland to pull the trigger on it.


And the last line concerns me where he appears to be.. I'll say "comfortable" going forward with what he have and with those in the minors....

Missing out on Carle wouldn't be too big a deal. A stop-gap like Hannan or Roszival might be better anyway if we can't swing a trade. Depends on how much Carle would take. $4M or less for 2-4 years? Probably not now that he's the "best" one left. And he's not good enough to make a big difference in how far we can go.

Regarding the bold: I see Kenny taking a lot of flak the last few years for expressing confidence in our players. It's like people see comments like that and completely forget what he's tried to do or the circumstances we've been in, and also ignore anything he says about considering other options. Seriously, what do you expect him to say? You think he should act like a fan and say, "This f'in sucks! We suck now and we won't make the playoffs ever again!!!1! Franzen's an A-hole!!one! I'm trading everyone!!?/! I'll trade Joe Louis for that Rocky statue!!! Next guy that walks through that door is getting a blank check just so we can say we did something!!exclamation point!"

The last few years, either because of the cap or lack of available players, our options have been very limited. Sucks that we haven't landed any of those few as of yet, but there's no reason for even fans to be as negative as they have been, much less for Kenny to be.


#2309517 Ken Holland

Posted by Buppy on 24 June 2012 - 03:28 PM

Well, if he lands Suter and Parise and we win the Cup, I think it will cement his legacy as a HoF GM. If he lands neither, and we miss the playoffs or exit early it will tarnish his image in the short term (unfairly), but long term he will still be remembered as one of the best.

Remember, he was also assistant GM for 3 years, and director of amatuer scouting for 7 before that. He played a significant role in building the team he "inherited". He's also made some big moves that people consider "failures" just because they didn't result in a Cup. Hossa, Hatcher, Clark/Samuelsson/Ranford, Cujo, Lang... He's also facing an uphill battle. We may need some big signing or trade, but that doesn't make doing it any easier. There's one real impact defenseman who might be available, and about 20 teams with the desire and ability to make a good offer for him. We have some assets to trade, but that doesn't mean any teams with the players we want will make those players available or be interested in what we can offer.

Fact is, if Red Wings fans judged other teams or GMs by the same standard Kenny has to live up to, they'd all be considered abject failures. We just lost the best defenseman of our generation, plus Stu, Rafi last year. Our stars are in their 30s. We haven't had any high draft picks during his tenure. We've dealt with the loss of stars and key roleplayers, like Konstantinov, Hasek, Yzerman, Hull, Fedorov, Robitaille, Shanahan, Chelios, Draper, Maltby, Osgood, Fischer, and more without needing to rebuild. And we are still talking about making moves to keep us a Cup contender rather than about rebuilding. That says alot more about Kenny than anything that might happen July 1st or afterward.

But if we don't make any big moves, and Kenny says, like last summer or the deadline, "We wanted to make some moves, but could find one that fit. But we like our team." everyone will just jump on the "we like our team" bit. As if all the best FAs offered to play here for free and every other GM offered to trade us their best players for our worst and Kenny turned them down. It's like half this board thinks the rest of the league has to get Kenny's permission before they can do anything, and the only reason we haven't done more already is because we didn't want to.


#2307704 If we fail to reload with top UFAs we should?

Posted by Buppy on 17 June 2012 - 11:44 AM

Sign Parenteau,Moen and one of Konopka/Prust,get both Wideman and Garrison and sign a backup goalie for cheap.

Not the best possible team on paper,but definitely much tougher and deeper than the last season roster

Wideman/Garrison in place of Nick/Stuie. Parenteau/Moen/Konopka or Prust in place of Hudler/Homer/two of Emmerton/Mursak/Miller/Eaves/Nyquist.

Tougher maybe, but certainly not deeper. If we had to settle for that, I'd be ok with it, but I think we'd need to look at our trade options. At least for help on defense.