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PavelValerievichDatsyuk

Member Since 17 Jul 2010
Offline Last Active Today, 02:52 AM
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#2682917 For the Kenny apologists, what Holland move would change your stance o

Posted by PavelValerievichDatsyuk on 11 July 2016 - 04:55 PM

If we didn't trade Datsyuk's caphit, we probably wouldn't have Nielson or Vanek. I would be interested to see what the criticism level would be like around here in that case. No one will know for a while what we missed out on with Chychrun, so I think speculating can only go so far.

 

I think it's interesting to compare this trade to the 2013 draft trade where we similarly moved down in the 1st round. 

 

2013: down 2 spots (18:Mirco Mueller - 20: Anthony Mantha) + we received a 2nd rounder (58th: Bertuzzi)

2016: down 4 spots (16:Jakob Chychrun-20: Dennis Cholowski) + we received a 2nd rounder (53rd: Hronek) + we got rid of Pav's caphit + took we took on Vitale's caphit)

 

If you take out the part about the 2 contracts switching hands, the 2 trades look very similar if you look at pick numbers. We gave up a higher 1st round pick in 2016, but we received a higher 2nd so that compensates a bit. Haven't seen any complaints about the 2013 trade and we didn't even get rid of a big contract as part of it. 

 

But, obviously, the difference is that we ended up with the higher ranked player (Mantha ranked 15, mueller ranked 16th in the consensus top 30) (Chychrun ranked 12, Cholowski was honourable mention - just outside the top 30).

 

As a sidenote, I don't think we can guess that we would have picked Chychrun. Both Chychrun and Fabbro were ranked higher than 16th and Stanley was taken 18th, so there were D choices and our choices often deviate from the rankings (cholo, bertuzzi are examples).

Holland trading the 16th pick and the Defense man that they desperately need were traded for one single year of relief of Dats contract should wake the rest of them up.  The Jets got a great defense man with our 16th pick.  Holland is the worst part of the Detroit organization, has delayed their rebuild and continues to do so.

We made the trade to Arizona not the Jets - Or maybe you're referring to them as the relocated Jets? Also, the trade was 16th+Dats for 20th+53rd+Vitale. To simplify it to Dats for Chychrun is very misleading.




#2682650 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by PavelValerievichDatsyuk on 08 July 2016 - 04:13 PM

The difference between Goose and Helm is that Helm turns 30 sometime this season and Goose was turning 26 entering into his prime. 

 

I honestly would probably be calling this an excellent deal if Helm was 25 rather than 29. I'm looking at this situation in it's entire scope. I'll reiterate some points.

 

1. We have a log jam of NHL forwards.

2. We have a log jam of AHL forwards or extras trying to become NHL forwards (Mantha, AA, Jurco, Pulk, Bert, Callahan)

3. 5 years. This contract runs till he's 34. If 29 year old Helm's best is 33 points what will 32 y/o Helm be? 33? 34? 

4. His best production was when he was 24 years old. His next best production was in 2015 where he thrived as Datsyuk's wing (Tatar - Datsyuk - Helm line). Can he repeat the production without Pav? I'm not saying he won't but it's something to think about.

5. Injury history. It's pretty bad. Doesn't mean it will happen again, doesn't mean it won't either. These things should be considered when making 5 year deals imo.

6. Was it worth paying $3.85 million when perhaps AA could take the role? AA doesn't have the same grit but he can probably provide the same duties on the third line and on the PK. We also have Nielsen now so the PK will primarily be his to handle.

7. Perhaps it is Helms market value. Maybe you guys are right. But does that mean management should pay it? I mean, it's not like it's Datsyuk hitting UFA. If that was the case, we do whatever we could to retain him. But was their hand really forced here? I don't think so.

 

I just don't see this contract working out in our favor. I hope I'm wrong though. And it all depends on if he has a NTC or NMC. 

 

If there's a NMC then lol. 

3. 5 years is short for anyone re-signing a UFA at 29. I'll bet we had to go with this higher cap-hit to cut down the years. Most signings of homegrown UFA forwards seem to be 7 or 8 years now. I don't see any problems with a 34 year old Helm. We just signed Nielsen at 32 for 6 years.

4. Like in my previous post, His best production year was 2 years ago when he was 27. As you say, his 32 pts. in 2010-11 was without Pav. If you take this year's production numbers as the beginning of a downfall most of our team will be in the basement in  a few years. I expect most players' number to return to form as Blash/new PP guy figures out the offence/lines better in his 2nd year.

5. He does have an injury history. The back injury was concerning but that was 3-4 years ago and hasn't come back. His cut wrist tendon isn't a recurring problem. The concussion this year in training camp can maybe account for some of his down year since he didn't have the regular season prep. Not too worried about injuries on the whole since they've all been unrelated, rather that one chronic problem.

 

Anyway, I've said my piece. To me, Helm is someone we know what to expect from and that's speed, consistent effort, solid defensive play, secondary scoring. I think we'll see that for the 5 year term.




#2682643 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by PavelValerievichDatsyuk on 08 July 2016 - 03:27 PM

I don't think it was THAT important to resign Helm to be honest. And I especially didn't think Miller was either. I think Holland tried to play it safe and wanted to keep them in case he didn't land other free agents.

$3.85 x5 isn't a slight overpayment for a bottom 6, 26 point scorer. It's a pretty big overpayment. Even if he kills penalties.

Just to put it into perspective, Gustav Nyquist scored more goals (27 goals) than Helm scored points (26 points total) when he got his contract and only makes 900k more.

This was a bad contract. And it's not even bad in hindsight like Ericsson's was (who was probably expected to be a pretty good D man but ended up disappointing most fans). This one is bad from day 1 and I'm hoping to god, moses and buddah that there's no NMC or NTC so we aren't stuck with it if it doesn't work out.

Goose scored 17 last year. Taking from a different year seems like cherry picking stats to me. 

 

This wasn't an essential signing. I'm glad we reupped him, but I can see why some disagree. Without the Miller, Ott signing, I think people would look at it differently. I don't think the caphit is a big deal, though. We have Lark, AA, and others on their entry contracts and other young players on RFA deals for the next while - we would have to worry the cap for a bit. Also, who was there to throw money at?

Even in his best year he put up 33 points (once). Almost everyone you mentioned were either former 40-55 point scorers or are making 900k less than his current contract is so either way it's still an overpayment. Matt Cullen signed his 3 year extension after scoring 48 and 39 points and signed with the penguins after scoring 25 points in 62 games (not 25 in 77). And why would I compare one bad contract with another? (Matt Stajan). Actually Stajan's contract isn't that bad since he's 3.1 million not 3.85. Kruger is only 26 and still has an upside. He's not 29. 

 

No matter how you cut it, it's an overpayment. By about a million dollars. Which is my point anyway. He's worth less than $3 million. Max $3 million in my opinion. Probably would have gotten $4.5 million in free agency because some managers like to throw money. 

This is not true. 

 

2010-2011: 32 pts

2012-2013: 26 pts in 68 games (got injured, traslates to 31 pts. over the full year)

2013-2014: 20 pts in 42 games (lockout season. His best season for pts per game. 39 pts over 82)

2014-2015: 33 pts

 

Last year was a down year for his production - like it was for almost everyone on the team. from his record you can expect over 30 pts from him.

 

I think saying he's worth less than 3 mill is unrealistic. He would have gotten more than 4 in free agency. That is worth - market dictates value.




#2682584 Darren Helm re-signed: 5 years, $3.85m AAV

Posted by PavelValerievichDatsyuk on 07 July 2016 - 08:18 PM

Ya, look at the log jam caused by re-signing Helm. This guy will be the downfall of this all because he MUST play in the top 9. He is no better than a 4th liner, but no, he is now going to bump more deserving 3rd liners out of the organization...

Krs-one covered most of my response, but also Helm never said this bolded no matter how many times you refer to it. He said he's fine with playing on the lower lines as long as there's "that respect factor." Whatever the hell that means, but he does seem to be fine on the 3rd and 4th.




#2682557 Darren Helm re-signed: 5 years, $3.85m AAV

Posted by PavelValerievichDatsyuk on 07 July 2016 - 04:40 PM

He does seem like the odd man out..

 

Tatar - Nielsen - Vanek

Zetty the Grizzly Teddy - Larkin - Abulkadir

Nyquist - Sheahan - AA/Helm/Mantha

Miller - Glendogmillionaire - Ott/Jurco

Have thought about this some more and there's no real problem

 

Z-Lark-Vanek

Ny-Nielsen-Abby

Tat-AA-Helm

Mill/Ott-Glen-Shea

Jurco,Pulk

 

Ott is just in for Miller as he comes back or injuries or extra grit.

 

Mantha starts in GR, which I think most of us expected anyway. Injuries will come.

 

Not sure how much of a shot Jurco and Pukkinen are going to get this year, though - I Do wish we hadn't signed Miller and Ott.




#2682459 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by PavelValerievichDatsyuk on 06 July 2016 - 05:22 PM

 

Torey Krug says hello. I wouldn't call him a long shot, nor would I personally call him a guarantee. I think, having watched him play for Victoria and at the WJHC for Canada, I think he's going to make the NHL. Whether or not he's a top 4, let alone a top 6 is up to him.

Krug's 5'9"so Hicketts is even smaller. I know there are short guys. St. Louis was 5'8", Gerbe, etc. But there's few of them for a reason. though, and even less among Dmen. It's the same reason why a player of Hicketts calibre went undrafted. I've been impressed with him, but I still consider him a long shot.




#2682456 Thomas Vanek signs 1 year, $2.6m deal with Detroit

Posted by PavelValerievichDatsyuk on 06 July 2016 - 05:05 PM

People think Ken Holland will trade a vet at the deadline?
 

It is unlikely that we do so since Vanek is likely a more capable player, but we have done it around the deadline recently:

 

2016: Kindl (26 - so not really a vet)

2013: Huskins

2012: Commodore

2010: Leino (27 - not really a vet)

 

These were all guys that didn't perform and we only got 6th or 7th rounders. I think it could be an option with Vanek if Mantha comes up and proves himself. From this list, we only send out guys that are superfluous. 




#2682448 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by PavelValerievichDatsyuk on 06 July 2016 - 04:47 PM

Hicketts has done well, but at 5'8" he's very much a long shot to make it to the NHL.




#2682313 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by PavelValerievichDatsyuk on 05 July 2016 - 06:40 PM

Which they never will because Kenny would've to admit how bad that contract is. Which is why he won't buy it out either. ;)

It's not about admitting it's a bad contract. Everyone but Ericsson's mom knows that's too much for him. (Although it's looking less bad when you have Petry getting 5.5 and other such deals) 

 

It's the fact that if we bought him now, it would be 1.375 against the cap for the next 8 years. On top of the 1.067 from Weiss that's around for 5 more years. Can't just keep buying out people and handicapping the team. Plus who are we making room for? Many would argue that Sproul, Jensen, Ouellet would be better options, but enough to justify the cap?

 

Ericsson has a modified NTC so he could be tradeable or keep him on the lower pairs where can handle the competition better.




#2682290 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by PavelValerievichDatsyuk on 05 July 2016 - 03:36 PM

Nyquist won't be the one getting traded you guys should just stop suggesting it, if teams want a small 20 goalscorer they are asking for Tatar who is cheaper and the only one most people would consider a sniper, Nyquist is a playmaker so if they want a playmaker then maybe goose gets packaged, Highly doubtful if I'm the opposing GM I'm asking for Tatar

So...Nyquist won't be traded unless people want him, then he might be traded?

 

And... Tatar is the most attractive except that it's highly doubtful that he'd be the one asked for? 

 

 

 

 

P.S. I'm also stealing LeftWInger's "..." thing




#2682284 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by PavelValerievichDatsyuk on 05 July 2016 - 02:39 PM

That's a blatant lie. Unless Ott is going to be sent down there isn't room.

I'm guessing you didn't actually read the article, just the quoted section. 

 

"With Darren Helm re-signed, the Wings have 12 forwards signed to one-way contracts, along with Dylan Larkin, plus restricted free agent Teemu Pulkkinen. That’s 14 forwards for 12 spots, but one or more could be moved in a trade, creating opportunities for the next generation.

“Going to camp, we expect Andreas Athanasiou, Anthony Mantha, Tomas Nosek, Tyler Bertuzzi — some of those kids are going to make the team,” general manager Ken Holland told the Free Press. “We’re holding a spot or two for the kids if they can make it."

 

They acknowledge that that there's no room with all the current forwards, but it seems from these comments that not all those players will be around when the season starts. 

 

St. James frames the Ott signing partly as "insurance for Drew Miller as he attempts a comeback from a rebuilt knee." Maybe he's sent out or down as soon as Miller's back. Or maybe he's just there for competition. Also, the team surely knew about Pulkkinen's surgery so that creates a spot to start the year.

 

Holland has no balls so NOTHING will get done, but I would go after Trouba.  Tatar & Mantha.  Trade Mantha before he has an average year with no broken leg.

 

Trouba can be a legit number one.

Mantha broke his leg 2 years ago so he's already had a year without the efffects of that. He had a better year last year. He's just under were Tatar and Nyquist were as (in terms of production) at that same point of their development:

 

2nd Year in GR:

Mantha: 60 games - 45pts (21g, 24)

Tatar: 70 games - 57pts (24g 33a)

Nyquist: 58games - 60pts (23g 37a)

(T+N were on better Griffins teams, though)

 

I'm sure Mantha value has already dipped a bit for trade discussions. I think I'd still prefer a trade involving Nyquist at this point. I think Mantha's style will do better in the more organized NHL play. I'm on the fence, though. Giving up 2 of our future scoring wingers would be a big hit - would prefer sending out a Dman, but I think it's obvious there's less value in our group there. 




#2682070 Who do you have as the top 5 Wings of all time..

Posted by PavelValerievichDatsyuk on 03 July 2016 - 12:48 PM

Wrong. Zetterberg would destroy that era with his speed and skill while using their big wooden sticks and s***ty skates. Stop being dumb.

 

My criteria was on-ice ability. Not legacy or accomplishments. On-ice ability is heavily dominated by skill competitions like skating, shot accuracy/velocity and puck handling. All of which Henrik Zetterberg in his prime excels at. Stop being wrong.


Then don't post stupid s*** like how Gordie led a 6 team league in scoring in his era. it's trivial garbage

I have no idea how this statement makes sense. If you lead the league, that's a huge accomplishment. The fact that it was a 6 team league doesn't make it less impressive. That's like saying it's no feat to lead scoring in olympic hockey. Some say the current league just waters down the talent pool (but think I think the growth of the game means the talent pool is larger to counteract the effect).

 

You're not making a list of all-time greatest, you're saying who would succeed in today's NHL while keeping the training regimes/techniques of their time. That's a crap shoot to me and I don't really know why that's worth considering. With the advance of the game, players are getting faster, and in better shape all the time. I think with that considered, I think you could argue that the most recent stars would therefore be the best. Or maybe Mrazek in the greatest wing goalie of all-time because the goaltending position has developed so much even since Osgood's prime.

 

Over different historical circumstances isn't a level playing field. Different rules, different equiptment, etc. I think greatness is dealing within the constraints of your time and excelling. Who did the best against their contemporaries is the greatest in my opinion.




#2681962 Steve Ott signs 1 year, $800k deal with Detroit

Posted by PavelValerievichDatsyuk on 02 July 2016 - 01:48 PM

 

I'm not wrong. Hits, Penalty Minutes, Fights have 0 correlation with winning. McCarty having a lucky playoff game that one time is pretty insignificant in the long run when he's a net negative for his entire career.

McCarty 96-97: 49pts in 68 games   Can't do anything else????!!!

 

Also you saying he's a net negative: Do you mean +/-? Because he's a +61 in his career. 




#2681827 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by PavelValerievichDatsyuk on 01 July 2016 - 10:06 PM

Realistically speaking PVD.. We both know Miller will be playing all 82 games. Management/coaches like him too much. It seems Jurco, Pulk, Mantha are SOL this year, perhaps even AA as well.

 

Unless Neilsen's PK ability makes Miller expendable. Which imo it should but might not. 

 

Hopefully there's a trade. 

Agreed, the silverfox will ride again. I was just saying what I'd prefer.

 

If you slot Miller in for Jurco, though, that is a likely roster to me:

Lark-Z-Abby

Ny-Niel-Vanek

Helm-AA-Tat

Miller-Glen-Shea

(pulk, Jurco, Ott in GR)

 

Those that are saying there must be trade for a Dman in the works, I think should temper their expectations. We basically have Nielson and Vanek in for Datsyuk and Richards. Ott is an extra forward, but if Ott is only called up for injuries then there's no roster crunch. Of course there's Mantha, but I doubt he's on the opening roster.

 

I'd like a trade for D help though. Ny, Shea could be shed could be replaced by Mantha and Ott/Jurco. Of course, E and Howard are contracts we would like to get rid of if there was a way to put them in the deal. We would need to send out a Dman for anyone coming in.




#2681737 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by PavelValerievichDatsyuk on 01 July 2016 - 05:23 PM

So ken hollad made us basically an older team... f*** holland and his love of veterans

Nielson: 32 younger than Datsyuk: 37 

Vanek: 32 younger than Richards: 36

 

How did we get older? Ott is 33 which isn't even that old and he won't play much. He only played 21 games last year.

Pretty much our lineup will look like this:

Larkin - Z - Abdelkader
Nyquist - Nielsen - Vanek
Helm - She - Tatar
Miller - LG - Ott
Jurco
AA and Mantha = Grand Rapids

DeKe - Kronwall
Errorson - Green
Smith - Marchenko
Ouellet

I don't think anyone realistically thinks AA won't be on the team. I think Ott will be a GR call up.