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number9

Member Since 22 Nov 2010
Offline Last Active Today, 12:11 AM
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#2519726 Next Seasons Needs/Team Future

Posted by number9 on 08 May 2014 - 12:13 PM

We need a top line scorer, a top power forward, a shut down D man, a puck moving D man, a new starting goalie, multiple gritty bottom 6 forwards, a new coach, and a new GM.

If we do that will everyone be happy?


#2519420 Wings Advanced Puck Possession Stats

Posted by number9 on 06 May 2014 - 12:58 PM

So I saw a Leafs fan do this, and for them all of their fighters ended up at the bottom of the list, so I thought it might actually be a semi decent metric and wanted to see how the Wings lined up.

 

Corsi F% is basically an advance stats proxy for puck possession. (Shots + shots missed the net + shots blocked for your team and the others while a player is on the ice)

 

The Leafs fan did Corsi F%, minus Corsi F% of linemates, plus the Corsi F% of opposition. So basically it's CF% adjusted for the strength of competition and strength of linemates.

 

Here's the numbers for the Wings during regular season 5x5 play:

 

  1. Tatar 0.563 - 0.500 + 0.496 = .559
  2. Datsyuk 0.561 - 0.500 + 0.494 = .555
  3. Nyquist 0.546 - 0.510 + 0.501 = .537
  4. Sheahan 0.561 - 0.522 + 0.494 = .533
  5. Jurco 0.558 - 0.524 + 0.494 = .528
  6. Zetterberg 0.532 - 0.517 + 0.508 = .523
  7. Helm 0.531 - 0.508 + 0.492 = .515
  8. Legwand 0.496 - 0.492 + 0.501 = .505
  9. Alfredsson 0.513 - 0.511 + 0.495 = .497
  10. Franzen 0.511 - 0.514 + 0.500 = .497
  11. Samuelsson 0.505 - 0.505 + 0.497 = .497
  12. Emmerton 0.502 - 0.505 + 0.498 = .495
  13. Abdelkader 0.508 - 0.518 + 0.503 = .493
  14. Andersson 0.500 - 0.515 + 0.495 = .480
  15. Miller 0.489 - 0.510 + 0.494 = .473
  16. Bertuzzi 0.496 - 0.524 + 0.497 = .469
  17. Cleary 0.473 - 0.512 + 0.499 = .460
  18. Glendening 0.462 - 0.518 + 0.495 = .439
  19. Weiss 0.420 - 0.520 + 0.505 = .405

 

I was glad to see all the kids right up there with Datsyuk and Zetterberg. A testament to how well they've worked in our puck possession system so far. Defensive players like Abdelkader, Miller, Andersson, and Glendening ranked low, which didn't surprise me bc most don't have the offensive ability to possess the puck a lot. Not surprisingly either is how low Weiss, Cleary, and Bertuzzi are, all guys that should have shown more offense.

 

These numbers are far from 100% reflective of puck possession skill, but if we were to go off them a puck possession team should ice this forward lineup next year:

 

Tatar - Datsyuk - Nyquist

Zetterberg - Sheahan - Jurco

Legwand - Helm - Alfredsson/Franzen

Abdelkader - Andersson - Alfredsson/Franzen

 

I think most would agree with that lineup or some variation of it. We also have Weiss who's numbers could be much better next year.

 

Thoughts on the calculations or results? It's very moneyballish so take it for what it's worth




#2519391 So who are the top RHed Dmen?

Posted by number9 on 06 May 2014 - 11:17 AM

That's not really true. There was a 4 year period when the wings didn't choose any right-handed Defencemen, but that was back in 2001-2004. We chose 2 in 2000 so there were those guys in the propect pool and we had Chelios, Dandenault, Krupp on the roster for those years and even Olausson in 2001 so there wasn't much need for rightys. Since 2005, there has been a lot of RH D chosen, but the draft picks just haven't worked out.
 
Right-handed Defence draft picks since 2000:
2000: Paul Ballantyne
2000: Alexaner Seluyanov
2005: Juho Mielonen
2005: Bretton Stamler
2006: Logan Pyett
2008: Max Nicastro
2009: Nick Jensen
2011: Ryan Sproul
2011: Marchenko
 
From everything I have read, It looks incredibly likely that Marchenko and Sproul will be on the Red Wings in the future.


I wouldn't completely rule out Jensen or even Nicastro either


#2519276 Next Seasons Needs/Team Future

Posted by number9 on 05 May 2014 - 01:58 PM

Hi people. Just found this place while searching for Red Wings draft needs and considerations. Wow. Seems like a lot of people know what to do!! I think the main hole they need to fill is top line sniper. I wonder if Ovechkin talks are out of the question???


Welcome to LGW. Yes, we all know what to do. In fact everyone here agrees we should trade Franzen for Ovechkin straight up.


#2519206 Now some gritty forwards.

Posted by number9 on 04 May 2014 - 09:30 PM

F Michael and Bama I sorta disagree with u. I think Holland has tried to draft a new core over the last years... Going after guys like Goose, Tatar, Pulkinen, Almqvist, ironhook, Etc. But once he got those guys he started peppering in size and grit more and more. AKA Bodin, Hudon, Callahan, McKee, Glendening, Mcnulty, Bertuzzi, Wheaton, etc. Sheehan and Jurco are bit gritty and big themselves as well. Holland knows these future Grindy types will compliment his up and coming core.

Of course we will always favor soft euros, it's where our best scouts are, but holland isn't dumb. He's not taking them only and he's taking them less now that he has a lot of them.

Agreed guys. Holland used to talk about needing 1 big forward per line. That was why he brought Bert back the second time. he knew what was needed, and that was while we were still a team in the west. Now in the more rugged east it might be 2 big F's per line. Yes he has started drafting bigger F's the past few years, but most of them have been Euro's: Tvardon, nestrasil, Jurco, etc..... Last year he finally grabbed mantha-more sniper than gritty and nastasiuk who is fairly gritty. But those guys are still down the road a bit.


Ok, completely ignore every large or gritty player He's drafted. He's done a lot more than draft those 5 in the grit and size department


#2519019 Will Mantha join GR after the QMJHL playoffs?

Posted by number9 on 03 May 2014 - 01:50 AM

Buying out players only happens when there significantly overpaid. Franzen, regardless of ur own qualms with him, is worth 4 million, and would get more than that per year on the open market. Tootoo, whether u like him or not, doesn't play, and is therefore worthy of a buyout.

Sure Franzen has that ridiculously long contract, but I'm willing to bet he's still enough decent at 38. If I'm wrong when that rolls around ill change toon, but till then I believe


#2518574 Your predictions for the roster heading into the offseason.

Posted by number9 on 01 May 2014 - 01:20 AM

In my perfect world we boot Franzy the Panzy and throw three years at 20mil at Iginla so he can meet his stated goal of playing to 40.   We waive bye bye to Legwand, and the rest of the FA including Alfie.
We then have these lines
 
40-13-Iginla
14-15-21
90--43-8
41-18-20
 
Quincey walks, Lashoff gets dealt we promote Marchenko and Oulett and Kindl sits in the pressbox.
 
We then have defense pairings that are:
 
55-2
65-Marchenko
52-Oulett
 
Be great if we can also dump Kindl..the we can elevate Sproul and have a 2nd RH Dman.
 
But...since the  Franzen's gonna stay, he can center the 4th line and show us how committed to defense he really is and Andersson becomes an extra forward


The red wings don't need 3 of their top 6 forwards, or a few of their established D-men. Rebuilding is fun. It's a joke bc what ur suggesting will never happen. Welcome to the red wings.


#2517730 The Franzen Hate.

Posted by number9 on 27 April 2014 - 04:59 PM

 

Your arguments are littered with only stats, and not what is played on the ice. It's obvious you turn a blind eye to the turnovers he creates, and I'm assuming it's someone else fault for his give away yesterday. Most people seem on the same page about the same flaws with Franzen, but points are all that seem to matter to you. I don't care if he scores 50 points a year, we can put another player to play with Datsyuk that will do that and more.

 

I compared Franzen with Cleary to show how broken your comparison of Franzen vs Nyquist really is.

 

Oh, so because of yesterdays turnover Franzen is now labeled as an overall turnover machine? Yeah, that was a bad give away. But it was also just one of only two give aways he had in the PO's. He also lead the team in take-aways during the PO's with 4. Now those stats do have some recording errors, but they still don't paint the picture of a guy who consistently gives away pucks.

 

Sincerely,
Guy who only reads boxscores




#2517624 The Franzen Hate.

Posted by number9 on 27 April 2014 - 01:01 PM

One goal in 23 games, none in the playoffs. How can he possibly not do better than that? None of us expect him to be the Euro Twins. Franzen should be able to perform more consistently than he has, though. What else is he doing on the ice if he isn't scoring goals besides passing the puck up the middle to the wrong team?


Not one of the kids had a pt in the playoffs either, but they are cool and new unlike Franzen


#2517595 The Franzen Hate.

Posted by number9 on 27 April 2014 - 12:10 PM

Filppula: on pace for 63 pts
Franzen: on pace for 62 pts

Fil costs about a million more than Franzen, so Tampa should buy him out right?

Franzen buy out a no brainer? U ppl live in a bizarre fantasy land
Hudler: on pace for 59 pts and he costs the same as Franzen. Calgary definitely going to buy him out too *rolls eyes*


#2517594 The Franzen Hate.

Posted by number9 on 27 April 2014 - 12:00 PM

41 pts in 54 gp for $4 mill is fine by me. Expecting Franzen to be our teams goal scoring X factor in most games is unrealistic IMO. He's a $4 million dollar player, not a $6 or a $7 million dollar player like Datsyuk and Zetterberg.

"But he could be so much better!"

No he can't. He's good for 50-60 pts a season and that's it. Expecting more bc of his brief 08-09 playoff streak is unfair.


#2514279 Next Seasons Needs/Team Future

Posted by number9 on 23 April 2014 - 10:10 AM

So we need a new coach, a new GM, a new top Dman, a new top scorer, and a new starting goalie? Agreed?
Do we need a new logo too?


#2514249 Next Seasons Needs/Team Future

Posted by number9 on 23 April 2014 - 06:54 AM

Said it in the GDT, saying it again here: we need a Wayne Simmonds like whoa.
 
Franzen, Kindl, Pulkkinen, Almqvist for Simmonds?


I think that's a huge overpayment for Simmonds and would not "LOL" at you.


#2512851 Lines/Lineup changes for Game 3 (Home game 1)?

Posted by number9 on 21 April 2014 - 09:33 AM

Abdelkader - Datsyuk - Alfredsson
Nyquist - Legwand - Franzen
Tatar - Sheahan - Jurco
Miller - Helm - Glendening


#2512805 Gus & Tatar almost traded to Calgary per McKenzie

Posted by number9 on 21 April 2014 - 12:35 AM

 
It's because your argument is nonsense. I was using Reductio ad absurdum to show how bad your argument was, it was a complete non sequitur. Just because I don't share your unrealistically optimistic assesment of Sheahan is only proof I don't share that view and nothing else. 
 
Learn proper argumentation. It helps you not look like a complete fool.


I'd say the only non-sequiter here is jumping to conclusions.

Sheahan is yes a third line center right now, but he's still very young, and has had lots of success already in his rookie year. To completely slot him at 3rd his entire career would require a crystal ball. Twins point was a good one, and not absurd. Guys like Zetterberg were never projected to be 1st liners when they were drafted. Neither was Sheahan. To say he doesn't have any potential to make 1st line at this point in his career is absurd.

That's not optimism that's just argumentationizing