Up late watching the shootout then had to be up early. Ugh.
Lots to like last night and some things to dislike. A point on the road against a top western team doesn't suck but the fact we could be looking at one point either keeping us from Montreal or Tampa in the first round or missing home ice against each look no further than last night for it.
I will say this, more and more I'm noticing Brendan Smith excelling at 4 x 4 situations. He really puts pressure on the forward defending him. I like that. I'd get him out there more in those spots. I have much respect for Jakob Silfverberg of Anaheim the way he approaches shootouts. He has a plan. Only three shots does he practice, top corner, like last night, low corner and five hole. No slapshots, no moves, no 5 minute attempts, from the same spot every time and he knows which one he's using before he skates at the puck. One wonders if certain Wings could learn from such a zen approach.
Last night was a hard miles game, tonight will be tough.
I'm not ready to anoint Silfverberg some sort of shootout wunderkind just yet. Even your best shootout performers hover around 50% over their careers. He's currently shooting at 69%. Eventually he'll regress back to the mean. A few years ago it was Wojtek Wolski who couldn't miss in the shootout.
There's a principle in physics, I don't remember the name, which states that even when you know the probability of something happening, you don't know WHEN each instance will take place. So, even if you know that good shootout performers only shoot about 50%, you don't know whether all the misses will come at the beginning, middle, end, of their careers or whether they'll be evenly dispersed.
Flip a coin a hundred times and you might start out getting 7 heads and 3 tails, but you'd be wrong to assume that the likelihood of flipping heads is 70%. And you can be sure that it will even out later.
- Rhah likes this