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kipwinger

Member Since 31 May 2011
Offline Last Active Today, 07:07 PM
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#2679582 The Holiday tradition: 2016 Draft thoughts.....

Posted by kipwinger on Today, 03:07 PM

Teams draft best available.  If that's a goalie then it's a goalie.  You really only draft position of need if there's really no difference in quality between two or three players when you're drafting.  Likely the reason they took the goalie is because he was obviously their highest rated player available at that particular point in the draft.  I'd rather have too many good goalies, than a more evenly balanced prospect pool with worse players.  Too many good players is an asset.  While our trades didn't necessarily pan out, it's because we had too many good forwards and defense prospects that we were able to deal Jarnkrok, Janmark, and Backman without "mortgaging our future".




#2679561 The Holiday tradition: 2016 Draft thoughts.....

Posted by kipwinger on Today, 11:47 AM

I'm a big fan of our picks going the college hockey route.  One thing that's true of college athletes across the board is the amount of time they have to dedicate to fitness.  They have required gym times that are typically overseen by accomplished trainers and nutritionists.  For a guy that's undersized, I think it's the best bet.  Not that Canadian junior teams don't emphasize fitness, but I think all things being equal a player comes out of college hockey more physically mature than they do out of Canadian Juniors.  

 

 

Also, anybody else impressed with Tyler Wright's drafting?  He's put together some very solid draft classes the last 3 years and you really don't hear too much about him otherwise.  He's sort of below the radar within the organization, but I like what he's doing. 




#2679435 The Holiday tradition: 2016 Draft thoughts.....

Posted by kipwinger on Yesterday, 11:02 AM

Givani Smith certainly would not have been available in the 5th-7th rounds... I really like that pick a lot.

 

I know right.  People around here ***** and moan for YEARS about how we never draft any tough, gritty, abrasive forwards.  So we draft an 18 year old who's 6'2, 200+ lbs., leads his league in penalty minutes, and is big and tough. 

 

What do people do?

 

***** and moan. 




#2679425 The Holiday tradition: 2016 Draft thoughts.....

Posted by kipwinger on Yesterday, 10:54 AM

I'm not sweating any of these picks.  Over the last couple of years I've found myself saying "Who's Tyler Bertuzzi", "Who's Axel Holmstrom", "Who's Ville Saarijarvi"?

 

Fast forward one year.

 

They're all studs in their respective leagues.  If nothing else, we draft really well. 




#2678755 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kipwinger on 23 June 2016 - 04:24 PM

Don't want Subban, I heard he was a turnover machine.


#2678712 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kipwinger on 23 June 2016 - 10:09 AM

1. You measure possession using corsi and Fenwick, not giveaways and takeaways.

And here's why...

2. Most really good possession players have lots of giveaways. Why? Because they have the puck a lot. Hard to turn the puck over when you're chasing it all over your own zone. Subban, Burns, Thornton, Karlsson, and Doughty led the league in giveaways this year. Are they bad possession players too? Obviously not.


#2678658 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kipwinger on 22 June 2016 - 07:10 PM

A slow piece of s***. But who cares, speed doesn't matter in hockey anyway.


#2678628 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kipwinger on 22 June 2016 - 04:40 PM

Stats say Brendan Smith is one of the best possession defensemen in the NhL and he is not so there are instances of analytics being not the end all be all to understanding a players performance. Usage plays such a huge part of these stats

I think you should take more stock in the fact that a coach scratches and won't play certain players more than their beastly possession metrics


Brendan Smith IS one of the best possession defensemen in the NHL. He's just not particularly great at other things, like scoring or maintaining his zone coverage. I'm not sure what's so tough about this? You could be an overall bad player but still excel with regards to possession. Conversely, someone like Tyson Barrie is good at scoring, but bad at driving possession. You're conflating two things that aren't the same. Possession metrics don't indicate that you're a good offensive (or defensive) defenseman. They simply indicate that you're a good possession defenseman. Whether or not you value that trait is another story, but the numbers don't lie.


#2678606 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kipwinger on 22 June 2016 - 12:50 PM

The example you just gave isn't a tautology.


#2678566 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kipwinger on 21 June 2016 - 10:31 PM

Your argument is tautological. You think the data is "inaccurate" because it doesn't comport with what you see, and you trust what you see because the data is supposedly inaccurate.

Or, in other words, Tatar isn't a good possession player because I don't see it. And I dont see it because i dont believe possession stats. And round and round we go


#2678545 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kipwinger on 21 June 2016 - 05:56 PM

All it means is that when he's on the ice the team directs more shots at the opposing net than they do if someone else is on the ice. In this respect the stats are quantifiably true. Maybe your perception is skewed. Either way I tend to put more faith in math than I do your eyeball test. But that's just me.
What's more, when you break down his WOWY stats you see that every individual he plays with directs more shots on net than if he weren't playing with them. Its pretty iron clad.


#2678541 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kipwinger on 21 June 2016 - 05:27 PM

I don't really care about the lefty righty thing either. We have enough righties to make balanced pairs now with Green, Marchenko, and maybe Sproul.

I wouldn't trade Tatar thought. I want a team based on possession and he's been one of the best possession forwards in the NHL for the last two years.


#2677712 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kipwinger on 14 June 2016 - 08:37 PM

I don't think there's any reason to over inflate Smiths value, but there's no value in denying it either. He's a good possession defenseman given the minutes he's getting. Currently, he's no problem for the wings on the third pair. But should you find yourself gushing too much over him remember that Green's possession numbers are almost as good AND he scored way more points. That's what stops Smith from being good instead of situationally good. He hadn't, so far, translated his puck possession skills into active offensive contribution. So he's decent, not nearly as good OR bad as his detractors or proponents suggest.

Saying all that, I'd keep him. I think the league is trending toward athletic, puck possession, defensemen. And I think he has value in that regard. But I think ideally he will always be a third pair guy unless he starts producing enough offense to counterbalance his poor defensive zone play.


#2677165 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kipwinger on 08 June 2016 - 04:12 PM

Except that's not true at all. You absolutely CAN isolate individuals performances using advanced stats. In simple terms, by aggregating the shots for and against accrued by a players most frequent linemates when said player is on the ice w/them vs. when they aren't and someone else is. Its no different than measuring someone's possession numbers, just in reverse. Instead of counting the shots for, you'd count the shots against. And I assume you're perfectly fine with those stats, you've used them repeatedly in the past to analyze the play of Brendan Smith. And using those same measures you find that Miller's unit gives up a ton of chances when he's on the ice rather than say Jurco or Anderson. Probably because despite his shot blocking, he's too slow and weak to gain control of the puck, and too unskilled to advance it when he does. Either way, Miller sucks.


#2677127 The Wings request permission to interview Todd Richards

Posted by kipwinger on 07 June 2016 - 06:05 PM

Damn, pretty bummed about this. Really was looking forward to seeing a more aggressive Red Wings team. Hope whomever we get is the same style. I REALLY don't want to watch any more boring trap hockey out of this team.