I'm not really sure that defenseman are more or less likely to have a long career than forwards are. I mean, there are quite a few recent examples of forwards who played well into their 40's as well. I think the determining factor is A) what type of game do you play, and B) what kind of injury history do you have.
Lidstrom played a really long time because he was relatively healthy throughout his entire career, and his body didn't wear out as a result of getting pummeled for 20 years. Orr's career was short because he had injury issues. Robyn Regehr retired at 35 because he played such a physically grueling style for a number of years. There's really no recipe.
If I had to handicap it I'd say Seabrook will see the end of the contract without losing too much off his game. While he does play a relatively physical game, he's not had too many injuries, and his usage will likely get easier as he ages. His offense will probably suffer as he gets older, but nobody ever relied on him for offense anyway. He'll be a capable, 38 year old, stay at home defender, leader, and all around steady blueline presence who puts up 20-25 points. And none of that will be worth 6 million bucks. But it will be a good contract for the next 4-5 years. Which is all Chicago really wants from him anyway.
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