Jump to content


kipwinger's Photo

kipwinger

Member Since 31 May 2011
Online Last Active Today, 01:37 PM
***--

#2574389 How is the Wings' Pro Scouting?

Posted by kipwinger on 24 February 2015 - 01:30 PM

All the guys you mentioned were depth AND stopgap signings.  The fact that they didn't have a huge impact isn't really that big of a surprise to me.  There's nothing wrong with this team's pro scouting.  Holland and co. are the best in the business at managing a roster.  Which isn't to say that he cant make mistakes, but when he does they're typically MUCH less harmful than the mistakes of other GMs. 




#2574377 2/23 GDT : Red Wings 3 at Ducks 4 (SO)

Posted by kipwinger on 24 February 2015 - 12:42 PM

Howard gets beat glove side high in the shootout.  It's his achilles heel.  If we go to a shootout tonight, Howard will get beat glove side high.  It's the nature of things.




#2574367 2/24 GDT : Red Wings 0 at Kings 1

Posted by kipwinger on 24 February 2015 - 12:07 PM

I'll be at the game. Will be breaking in my Winter classic jersey. Got nice seats for my B Day. Wings better win this one. Go Wings !

 

I'll donate 100 dollars to a charity of your choice, if in addition to your Winter Classic sweater you dress up as Nikki Sixx otherwise.  Sort of an East meets West thing.  The ball is in your court.

 

Edit:  For clarity's sake, I'm talking about Nikki Sixx circa 1983.  Obviously. 




#2574347 Is Jimmy Our Playoff Goalie?

Posted by kipwinger on 24 February 2015 - 11:02 AM

Yes.  He is. 




#2574338 Zetterberg leaves after 2nd Period; "upper body injury"

Posted by kipwinger on 24 February 2015 - 10:42 AM

 

So when someone defames an entire nation's people, what word would you use to describe it?

 

Xenophobia.  The word is xenophobia.  "Canadian" is a nationality, not a race.  So defaming Canadians, or any other nationality, isn't racism.  It is, however, stupid and wrong. 




#2574331 2/23 GDT : Red Wings 3 at Ducks 4 (SO)

Posted by kipwinger on 24 February 2015 - 10:30 AM

Up late watching the shootout then had to be up early. Ugh.

 

Lots to like last night and some things to dislike. A point on the road against a top western team doesn't suck but the fact we could be looking at one point either keeping us from Montreal or Tampa in the first round or missing home ice against each look no further than last night for it. 

 

I will say this, more and more I'm noticing Brendan Smith excelling at 4 x 4 situations. He really puts pressure on the forward defending him. I like that. I'd get him out there more in those spots. I have much respect for Jakob Silfverberg of Anaheim the way he approaches shootouts. He has a plan. Only three shots does he practice, top corner, like last night, low corner and five hole. No slapshots, no moves, no 5 minute attempts, from the same spot every time and he knows which one he's using before he skates at the puck. One wonders if certain Wings could learn from such a zen approach.

 

Last night was a hard miles game, tonight will be tough.

 

I'm not ready to anoint Silfverberg some sort of shootout wunderkind just yet.  Even your best shootout performers hover around 50% over their careers.  He's currently shooting at 69%.  Eventually he'll regress back to the mean.  A few years ago it was Wojtek Wolski who couldn't miss in the shootout. 

 

There's a principle in physics, I don't remember the name, which states that even when you know the probability of something happening, you don't know WHEN each instance will take place.  So, even if you know that good shootout performers only shoot about 50%, you don't know whether all the misses will come at the beginning, middle, end, of their careers or whether they'll be evenly dispersed. 

 

Flip a coin a hundred times and you might start out getting 7 heads and 3 tails, but you'd be wrong to assume that the likelihood of flipping heads is 70%.  And you can be sure that it will even out later. 




#2574327 Zetterberg leaves after 2nd Period; "upper body injury"

Posted by kipwinger on 24 February 2015 - 10:12 AM

I agree that fighting is harmful in that it can leave a player with long-term issues related to concussions, brain trauma, etc. If that's your only argument, fine.

But to say a genuine fight doesn't impact a hockey game is silly. That's like saying a big hit or shot block doesn't affect the momentum of a game either. Or the crowd even. There are too many variables and differing scenarios that a scientific study won't be able to capture this.

Also, chemistry and camaraderie are vital to any hockey club. Sticking up for your linemate after a dirty hit is part of being a good teammate. You don't want think stuff like that brings a team closer together?

 

The research shows that after a fight there IS an offensive surge.  For one, or both teams, and not necessarily for the team that starts, or wins, the fight.  Both teams get amped up.  I never said guys didn't get amped up after fights.  Sure they do.  But it doesn't reliably make your team play any better, AND it might actually make the other guys play better.  

 

Secondly, I certainly agree that chemistry and comraderie are important.  But there are tons of ways to develop chemistry and comraderie.  The Wings are always near the bottom of the league in fights, but don't seem to noticeably suffer from a lack of team cohesion, while a team like Edmonton (which fights much more often) does.  Given how many other methods there are to accomplish team unity, and given that fighting doesn't seem vital to achieving it, I'm going to err on the side of caution and suggest we dispense with the method that kills people's brains slowly. 




#2573965 Zetterberg leaves after 2nd Period; "upper body injury"

Posted by kipwinger on 23 February 2015 - 11:03 PM

I'm just happy that at least two people on LGW don't completely hate me.  Look who's burning bridges now, Grandma...ya jerk!




#2573890 Zetterberg leaves after 2nd Period; "upper body injury"

Posted by kipwinger on 23 February 2015 - 10:01 PM

 

Fighting doesn't have any impact on the sport? March 26, 1997 called to disagree.

 

"This is a game that brought the Red Wings together," said Vernon, who picked up his 300th career win. "Whether it was the first-period fighting or the overtime goal, a game like this only helps give you confidence to go into the playoffs. When you go to the playoffs, everybody has to be ready to do the job and stay together. Tonight showed the guys were willing to pay the price."

http://usatoday30.us...85/97085360.htm

 

"Certainly, I think that was the turning point as far as the Red Wings' success went. Up until that point, the Red Wings were close, but never tasted victory, and by that I mean Stanley Cup victory."

http://www.mlive.com...laude_lemi.html

 

"After postseason heartbreaks in 1994, '95 and '96, the Red Wings finally developed a swagger on March 26, 1997, one that would carry them to three championships in six seasons."

http://sports.espn.g...=neumann/070326

 

Well as interesting as a bunch of anecdotal evidence is, actual scientific research suggests that fighting has no positive effect on the outcome of the game.  The ol' eyeball test is good for finding a date on a Friday night, but if you want to find the truth about real world phenomena...you have to use science.  Bummer. 

 

https://georgetownsp...a-hockey-fight/

 

"We can see in all four of these data sets that there is no evidence that winning a fight leads to better results in the immediate aftermath of the fight. In fact, it appears that the team winning the fight will score slightly less goals in the game than they did previously. In all four groups, the percentage of goals scored by the winning team is within 1.96 standard deviations of the percentage of its total goals scored, indicating that the results are negligible. Thus, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that winning a fight has no impact on a team’s momentum and goal differential."

 

 

http://blog.philbirn...erformance.html

 

So, I guess, our overall conclusion from this study isn't completely certain. We wind up with a summary like:

1. The effect doesn't seem to exist for run-of-the-mill fights.
2. When a goon fighter on a goon team fights when his team is down, it seems to benefit that team by 1/8 of a goal, or a bit less than a normal power play.
3. But, that effect isn't statistically significant, so we have some doubts that it's real.
4. And, with only 364 such datapoints qualifying out of around 5,000, only a small percentage of fights match the criterion for that kind of boost.

If you had to reduce that to one line, it might be: At best, there might be a small effect in certain specific circumstances ... but much, much less than sportscasters make it out to be.




#2573803 Zetterberg leaves after 2nd Period; "upper body injury"

Posted by kipwinger on 23 February 2015 - 03:38 PM

Yes I think that sums up thoughts. I know it will never get to zero. Also I do not believe that if cheapshots are drastically reduced I do not think fighting would disappear.

As I said in my edit after you quoted me I think we disagree over the amount of supplemental discipline and the acceptable level of cheapshots we can legislate to in our game. I have a higher tolerance for them than you do. As I said the level the league is at right now is fine with me and you want a further reduction

 

I think that cheapshots can, and should, be reduced to levels consistent with other contact sports.  I also don't think this is unreasonable or unrealistic.  If a guy gets a concussion by hitting his head on the boards, or ice, after a LEGAL check...it's unavoidable.  If a guy gets hit in the head by an opposing players elbow, because the league does not seriously discipline that kind of recklessness...it's a problem. 




#2573742 Zetterberg leaves after 2nd Period; "upper body injury"

Posted by kipwinger on 23 February 2015 - 01:00 PM

I do not believe this has happened in any other sport with success. You still have guys blasting qbs and wrs. Still have people stomping on guys. Also mind you this is hardly an easy thing to make happen the nhlpa would certainly be against it. I do not believe that fines can be made substantial enough for there to be a noticeable decrease in dirty hits.

I like fighting because I like to see people stand up for themselves.

 

This is exactly the problem with this debate.  The fighting people ways respond with "well fines won't get rid of cheap shots 100%".  Of course they won't.  But it'll work better than enforcers have.  Every single contact sport has fewer malicious hits and cheapshots than the NHL has because they have stiffer fines. 

 

Don't believe me?  What was the big dirty hit epidemic the NFL used to have?  Spearing.  You almost never see it in NFL games anymore.  Why?  What got rid of it?  Definitely not a bunch of goons beating the s*** out of each other.  It was fines.  BIG fines. 

 

You guys act like if another method of punishment won't completely eradicate dirty hits, that it's not worth doing.  That's false logic.  The fact that it's not a PERFECT deterrent doesn't mean it's not a BETTER deterrent. 




#2573723 Getzlaf calls Ovechkin a diver, O says "I have hair"

Posted by kipwinger on 23 February 2015 - 11:25 AM

Didn't Micheal Douglas come out and say that going down on chicks gave him mouth cancer?

 

Get the wheelz back on the bus!




#2573701 Zetterberg leaves after 2nd Period; "upper body injury"

Posted by kipwinger on 23 February 2015 - 09:59 AM

 

Are you trying to join Crymson on hfboards or something?  

 

If I get banned for arguing this point, the moderators of this forum should be ashamed.  I'm arguing with two guys who have consistently used homophobia as a way of defending a point of view that is hardly defensible in the first place.  I don't know how else to describe that type of thinking other than to say it's stupid, insensible, archaic, and disgusting.  I guess maybe I'd call it "fundamentally sickening and inhuman".  That's pretty accurate. 

 

Nevertheless, I actually appreciate (even though I don't agree) your view on fighting.  Because at least the logical basis for it rest on nostalgia, and not the denigration of other groups of people. 




#2573700 Do Maple Leaf fans deserve better?

Posted by kipwinger on 23 February 2015 - 09:53 AM

 People get offended over anything in todays ultra 'pc' society we live in.

 

That said - wonder Rielly will be on the trading block.

 

I don't think anybody's calling for Reilly's head.  It's pretty much universally acknowledged that he's a young kid who made a mistake and said something stupid that you shouldn't say anymore.  I thought, however, that it was also universally acknowledged that you shouldn't use large groups of people (women, homosexuals, black people, Irish, etc.) as a pejorative.  And that when you do, people will be offended.  Not "easily" offended, mind you.  But justifiably offended. 

 

I mean, that's reasonable right?  To expect that your gender, skin color, religious preferences, etc. won't be consistently used as an insult by people in public. 




#2573675 Zetterberg leaves after 2nd Period; "upper body injury"

Posted by kipwinger on 23 February 2015 - 01:57 AM

 I believe the NFL has a much larger issue at hand with brain trauma/debilitating injuries/prescription med abuse/domestic abuse than the NHL.

 

The HBO special on the Chicago Bears 1985 Super Bowl team is the tip of the iceberg.

 

I don't feel qualified to say whether one sport is worse than the other with regards to causing brain injuries.  They both demonstrably have a serious issue with it.   I do, however, feel that ANY sports league should absolutely prioritize the health and safety of their players.  One easy way to do that, in hockey, is to take unnecessary (and avoidable) hits to the head out of the game.  And one very easy way to do that is to remove fighting by removing the "so called" need for it...increase penalties for serious infractions to the point where players err on the side of caution. 

 

Caution.  The operable word.  Heaven forbid human beings in the 21st Century learn how to enjoy sports where players must be cautious of one another.