Jump to content


krsmith17's Photo

krsmith17

Member Since 12 Jun 2011
Offline Last Active Today, 01:33 PM
-----

#2683825 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by WingedWheel91 on Today, 12:49 PM

It's true LeftWinger - I didn't necessarily like the 5 year term either, but Darren Helm is an extremely valuable forward that creates roster flexibility unlike anyone else. He is our best penalty killer plus our best (or second best) forechecker. He has been useful on the first line, and he's obviously been great on the 4th line. Having forwards like this is invaluable, especially in the playoffs when you win or lose games after you win or lose individual matchups. This undeniably happened against Tampa Bay in 2015 (who went to game 6 of the Finals) when Luke Glendenning got hurt and missed the last two periods of game 4, after completely suppressing the "kid line" to that point entirely. I truly believe the legend of Tyler Johnson may have never been a thing if not for that injury.

 

Daren Helm has that ability plus more to offer offensively.

 

Would I like him more at $2,950,000? Of course. But that isn't the math or the question that matters... It was widely reported that he took a hometown discount and had offers over $4,000,000 to leave - so we made it up on term. If the question to me is you can have Helm at $3.85 or no Helm, I take what I know considering I just lost my best player who was also a Center.

 

So if the "number" everyone seems comfortable with (which basically equates to the difference of a league min contract) isn't that big a deal - I can't really accept that one guy is preventing all of Jurco, Mantha, Anthanasiou and Bertuzzi from a job in the NHL. 




#2683821 Fixing this mess....

Posted by kickazz on Today, 12:22 PM

I wanted to go back to a point someone made in another thread about how people who use advanced analytics are acting like they know better than the coaches. This is not true at all. There's things in Blashill's coaching which makes sense and actually works and nobody is refuting the point. The perfect example is Brenden Smith who was sheltered and thrived under Blashill. Another example is demoting Ericsson to third line and promoting Dekeyser to first line. I'd say most of the stuff put out on ice is just fine and obviously Blash and the analytics are lining up in that regard.

 

The issue comes in where certain MINORITY of the players are being misused and that's where the criticism starts to fall on Blash. Right now there's a few players being misused and those include Glendening, Zetterberg and Drew Miller. 

 

So the next time someone comes about with wacky arguments that "Oh look at the analytics people trying to act like they know better". Stop seeing s*** in black and white, that's not what people are trying to say. They are just pointing out some of the weakest links in the lineup that need  to be changed in order to make the team go from being an 8 seed to something better. 

 

"Your team is only as strong as your weakest player" 




#2683812 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kliq on Today, 11:10 AM

If Helm wasn't paid $4M there would be more money available to offer Mrazek. Period, simple. That signing directly affected this negotiation. But hey, we sure got a fast 4th liner who will get top minutes because he gets top 6 money for 13th forward stats. Screw the future, we have Darren f****** Helm! That's the Juckf****** pott right there!

Screw AA, screw Mantha, screw Jurco and Pulkkinen, f*** our future for Helm! Oh and Howard can always be our #1. Darren and Jimmy, plan the parade!
:hysterical:

Nyquist was a wasted signing and Helm is too! That's $9M and two roster spots that can help our future...but hey, let's settle for bad to mediocre.

 

Man, talk about being over the top, everything is the 6 degrees of Darren Helm with you. Its like now that Franzen is done you need a new whipping boy for everything. Mrazek being offered what he is being offered is not because of Helm, it's because of his collapse mid season. You dont give 5mil to a guy that was bailed out by his backup. I would have to imagine that even if Helm walked these offers would be no different.


But it just goes to show where Holland stands. Instead of putting the value and focus on the future, he puts it in helm. Mrazek will not forget this.

 

An offer in a negotiation? You make it sound like Holland slept with his wife, seriously relax.




#2683802 Fixing this mess....

Posted by kickazz on Today, 09:58 AM

PVD you have to take it into context.

 

You can't compare Tatar to Glendening in the "all situations" chart. You would have to compare Tatar to Nyquist, Datsyuk, Zetterberg and all the other players who get similar time of 5 on 5 time. In that regard, Tatar is obviously the best possession player. 

 

Glendening's best comparison is probably someone like Darren Helm who gets PK time as well. In that regard Helm is the superior possession player. 

 

As far as the all situations numbers are concerned, take it this way: Glendening is being put out in the defensive zone more often but is struggling. There are players in the league who have similar if not worse defensive zone starts than him who aren't struggling nearly as much and are on worse teams than the Red Wings (I've already posted this chart in the other thread). But to me this isn't about Glendening, it's more about the entire team. If it's a 3-2 game with 1 minute left to go in the favor of Red Wings, this chart makes me think that Glendening should not be on ice to take the faceoff as he struggles in the defensive zone. I'd much rather put another center to take the faceoff even with a slightly lower faceoff win %. Because what really is the difference between 54% and 53% faceoff and first guy being Glendening and the second player being Datsyuk? 

 

Finally, there actually is no correlation to Glendening's zone starts and his possession numbers. In 2013 when he entered the league, he had about 50% defensive zone starts compared to last year where he had 70% defensive zone starts but his Corsi was only SLIGHTLY better in 2013 (but he played far less games in 2013 so it probably would have ended up being the same). It was still far far below the team average. So the issue with Glendening is not because of his zone starts, it's because of his inherent lack of possession skills. He's simply not a good possession player, regardless of what situation he's in. 




#2683777 Fixing this mess....

Posted by kickazz on Yesterday, 08:57 PM

I saw that on twitter. But what I noticed wasn't Tatar. I noticed Glendening. :)

 

At this point I'd keep Tatar over Nyquist. 




#2683774 Fixing this mess....

Posted by kipwinger on Yesterday, 08:45 PM

More evidence that Tomas Tatar should NOT be traded.  Dude's a stud.

 

CoKD0DjUEAAigaL.jpg

 

CoKD1bwUIAECrBl.jpg




#2683701 Fixing this mess....

Posted by kliq on 23 July 2016 - 03:27 PM

Not true at all. Right now we are going to have about 24 million in cap space after we resign our RFA's. Yes that is in a perfect world. But the point remains we have a good amount of cap room. Sing Schenn for say 5 million per, trade for or sign a #1 Dman for 8 million per year, that only comes to 13 million. Still have room to add more pieces to the F group and a vet backup G. We have 7 roster spots that could be open and need to be filled after moving out guys like Tatar, Nyquist, Smith, Sproul, Jensen, Howard, Andersson, etc....

All numbers are based on what generalfanger.com has posted.

 

I couldn't help but think of this back and forth when Schenn signed today with Phoenix for 2 years at 2.25 total (1.25 caphit). Signing him for 5mil per year would have been a MASSIVE over-payment.




#2683697 Glendening signs 4-year, $1.8m AAV extension

Posted by kickazz on 23 July 2016 - 02:11 PM

That's not true because both Helm and Sheahan are considered defensive forwards with higher defensive zone starts than the top 6 and their numbers are far better than Glendening. 

 

Far better. Would you like me to post another chart or is it going to end up in another excuse driven post? 

 

Why bother I guess. I've said my piece. Last year when WIIM posted it we all called them crazy. At this point Mlive has caught on and I'm sure the rest of the press will follow suit. 

 

BTW what does bad team mean? We were one of 8 teams to make the playoffs in the east. That's a bad excuse. In the chart I posted of top toughest usage forwards,  Auston Watson and Mikka Salomaki both play for Nashville (7th seed). Bryon Froese plays for the Maple Leafs (Lol). I feel like you're completely ignoring charts and figures people are posting for you without even reading jumping to conclusions of denial. Unless you can actually look at the points I'm trying to make, and read the information on the charts (and realize those other players are also on "bad teams"), this is pointless. I'm basically arguing with someone who refuses to look at data. 




#2683693 Glendening signs 4-year, $1.8m AAV extension

Posted by kickazz on 23 July 2016 - 01:55 PM

Again just because he doesn't generate shots doesn't mean he isn't good defensively. Wings defensive zone style is to sit back and allow outside shots and get into lanes. If Glendening had great possession numbers the way he is utilized he'd be Zetterberg in his prime. Giving up a lot of shots doesn't mean you're not doing your job defensively. To say Glendening isn't good defensively is to go against every knowledgeable coach he's ever had

You can really see who on this board goes to Winging it in Mowtown... As soon as you realize those people on that site are nothing but fans you become humbled and realize you're not more knowledgeable than NHL coaches and managers. I'm not going to just cast off all advanced analytics but the data is so skewed on a team to team basis. If we were a Stanley cup contender this data would be alarming. This is a bad hockey team and the data reflects that more so than a single player. What a strange coincidence, every player that isn't used defensively has outstanding numbers and every defensive player has terrible ones. I guess that can only mean those guys are trash and Jurco and smith are elite. If you ran your team based off these stats you wouldn't have a good team

Lol. First it's not WIIM. It's quite clear you have decided to brush away any fact given here and run the same narrative OVER AND OVER again. The original article came from Mlive that Krsmith posted. 

 

http://www.mlive.com...gs - MLive.com)

 

Second, when all things are equal I showed you a graph of top 15 tough usage forwards in OTHER teams and still in denial. Cool. Seriously if you can't come up with a good argument and keep going on about "well I don't believe numbers" blah blah blah then that's fine. If you have nothing to show for your argument then this conversation is useless. I'm giving you basic stats and you're still stuck on anti-advanced stats narrative.

 

Basic simple, goals against, shots against, ice time. 




#2683691 Glendening signs 4-year, $1.8m AAV extension

Posted by kickazz on 23 July 2016 - 01:23 PM

He's used like a premier shut down forward on this team. Probably one of the most utilized shut down centers in the league. For him to have glowing stats the way he was used he'd have to be the best defensive forward in the league and a star player. Glendening has tough assignments night in night out. For his possession numbers to be great he'd have to be outplaying top line players every night and therefore be a superstar. He plays the tough minutes so Z and co don't have to and last I checked our defensive game was one of the only respectable parts to our game last year

Literally the wings were a team that was bad at everything but defensively were decent but we blame our defensive forwards all off season
 

This is starting to become one of the most used and incorrect arguments for Glendening. The whole "well he plays tough minutes that's why his numbers are bad".

 

Let me show you other players in the league who also play so called "tough minutes". The title of this graph is a dead give away btw. 

 

ZQbdZqbl.jpg

 

Take a look. Out of 15 players in the league who are subject to "tough minutes" Glendening ranks amongst the bottom at shot generation. What's his excuse? There is no excuse. He's just not a good shutdown forward. I'm moving on from this narrative that Luke Glendening is a good defensive forward.

 

He simply isn't. Kruger, Desjardins, Watson, Nystrom. Majority of the people on that list have better shot attempts than Glendening and similar defensive zone starts. And before anyone says, "it's because our coaches prefer to play safe". That excuse doesn't work when you look at other defensive forward on our team. 

 

This guy ranks bottom in shots against when short handed, ranks bottom in GOALS AGAINST when short handed. Ranks towards bottom shot generation amongst other players in the league who have just as much defensive zone starts as him.

 

I think I'd rather us move on from using Glendening for this role and move onto using Sheahan and Helm. Or like I said earlier, give Frans Nielsen the defensive shutdown role just as Zetterberg was in from 2006-2013.

 

If people want to ride on the "Well Luke Glendening works hard and Holland, Babcock and Blashill all praised him so he must be good" narrative then by all means. But even the simplest stats, eyeball tests and obviously advanced stats are racked against this argument. 

 

Anyways no point. 5 more years. Hopefully rookie coach learns from his mistakes sooner rather than later. 

 

The top two overusage issues on this team are:

 

1. Henrik Zetterberg

2. Luke Glendening 




#2683682 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kliq on 22 July 2016 - 11:57 PM

Ya, he's so far and beyond the best 3rd line center that when he retires, the league is going to retire the #43 from every team.

I give it until December and 98% of his "supporters " will have turned on him. Just like Ericsson, just like Franzen, just like howard, just like Cleary and just like Hudler. You better believe when it happens, I'm just going to sit back and smile! Ya, right!you'll never hear the end of it! Ericsson, right! Franzen, right! Howard, right! Cleary and hudler? Yep, right again!

 

So you would rather be "right" and Helm sucks, then be "wrong" and have Helm light it up this year? Way to be a fan.

We all get it, you don't like Helm, but we don't have to have this debate in every active thread. Its getting Bill/Miller like.
 




#2683680 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by kickazz on 22 July 2016 - 10:22 PM

He wasn't moved off center because he's wasn't good at it. We've lacked wingers and had a bunch of lower line centers so Helm played wing. To me, his ability to play in many situations is one of his strengths.

 

Helm's not a top 6 winger. haven't seen anyone argue that. 

Precisely. Something I've noticed with the Red Wings is we've had really crappy luck where we lack top 2 centers but are filled with bottom 2 centers. Have plenty of top 9 wingers. Our lack of top 2 centers basically forced Zet to switch to Center and maintain the position which means we no longer had a good/elite winger for Datsyuk (ironically Helm became Datsyuk's winger with Tatar when Franzen went down). Helm was switched to Wing because we have too many Sheahans, Anderssons, Ferraros and Glendenings. Basically bottom 2 line centers. And none of those guys can play winger that well. Maybe Sheahan but not really. 

 

This goes hand in hand with my bitching in the other thread about Glendening. We are using players in positions because we are forced to or maybe too stubborn to, rather than being able to use them at their best.

 

I'd say Helm is our best third line center if given the opportunity again. And I'd rank him as a top third line center in the league. I don't know about being the best in the league. Maybe it's possible. 

 

It could be proven (to an extent)with math freak data but then people would get into the whole "dial-up", "blah blah advanced stats suck, I'm staying ignorant to it" conversation again :)

 

STILL HATE HIS CONTRACT THO




#2683678 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by PavelValerievichDatsyuk on 22 July 2016 - 10:07 PM

Comparing him as a top 6 winger to third line centers is an apples to oranges comparison. He's so good at center he hasn't been used there in 2 years

He wasn't moved off center because he's wasn't good at it. We've lacked wingers and had a bunch of lower line centers so Helm played wing. To me, his ability to play in many situations is one of his strengths.

 

Helm's not a top 6 winger. haven't seen anyone argue that. 

 

There was some nice goals from mr. no hands this past year. 3 were GWG (tied for 3rd on the team behind Lark and Abby). Think he would have had a better year if he hadn't had the concussion in training camp which I think accounted for the slump to start the year.




#2683677 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by marcaractac on 22 July 2016 - 09:59 PM

So you're sure the evidence is there, you just don't have it.

First, TBTLC would actually have to center the third line, which he hasn't done since shortly after Babs dubbed him that. He was an unproductive second line winger until Blash moved him to Glendening's wing last year.

 

If you need evidence so bad why not Google it yourself? Not everyone on the internet cares about trying to convince random people of what they already know. 

 

This team has had identity and depth issues for a few years now. It is of zero surprise that Helm had to log a lot of top 6 minutes. Despite the fact this team is nowhere near contention, at least now there is enough depth to have actual top six players play in the top six. I'd fully expect to see Helm back on the third line this season. If not, the management of this team will just continue to show incompetence. 




#2683670 Official 2016 Detroit Red Wings Offseason Thread

Posted by joesuffP on 22 July 2016 - 07:11 PM

There wasn't any real reason to turn on Franzen anyways. He was a beast in his prime and even better in the playoffs. After he got older he was still a very good top six player and is pretty much the exact player we are missing right now

The point is people on this forum will turn on anyone regardless of facts just so it follows their own made up narrative