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FlashyG

Member Since 04 May 2012
Offline Last Active Yesterday, 05:35 PM
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#2500624 Around The League - Eastern Conference Playoff Race

Posted by FlashyG on 25 March 2014 - 12:13 AM

The odds say we need to be .500 or better for the last 11 games of the season to get a playoff spot. We could even make it with a sub .500 record as long as we take a few of them to OT.

 

Nobody is saying we can't use help but just as we can't expect to go 11-0 til the end of the season its not realistic to expect our competition to go 0-10 or 0-9.

 

I'll take any help we can get but really all the Wings have to worry about is winning as many of the remaining games as they can...Their fate is in their own hands.

 

Its teams like New Jersey and to a lesser extent Washington who NEED help to get a spot. Even Toronto is dangerously close to that category.




#2500583 Around The League - Eastern Conference Playoff Race

Posted by FlashyG on 24 March 2014 - 09:11 PM

Stupid rangers f*** .... That really hurt

 

Tonights games don't matter all that much.

 

With Philly losing and the Rangers winning our playoff chances remain exactly the same. The other 2 games will probably drop our chances slightly but no more than .1 or .2 %

 

Tomorrow's game is huge though




#2500492 Callahan called up from GR.....

Posted by FlashyG on 24 March 2014 - 05:25 PM

Hopefully he comes in like a wrecking ball.

 

9yLPnFP.gif




#2499587 % chance of making the playoffs

Posted by FlashyG on 23 March 2014 - 03:22 PM

According to Sportsclubstats we still have a 94.7% chance of making the playoffs if we finish with a record of 5-3-4.

 

Its 96.4% if we go 7-5

 

If we go just .500 (6-6) our chances are still 69.6%

 

Our fate is totally within our own hands.




#2499467 % chance of making the playoffs

Posted by FlashyG on 23 March 2014 - 03:40 AM

Euro twins I personally agree with that last sentence you pointed out. Holland assembled a pretty crappy team IMO to start the year.

But due to many of the trash being out it's given so many young kids to prove their worth. I believe it's because of their talent and the great coaching of both blashill(spelling) and Babcock.

Honestly if our roster stayed the way it is except for z dat and E being back it's the best we could be.

The unfortunate thing with e being back is smith will get dumped to s*** pairings again. And idk who I'd put with z and dat as I'd want the legwand nyquist an Franzen line to stay together. Maybe Alfie with z and dat so we could actually have a "puck control" line lol.

Ya I'm Prolly forgetting someone but I'd do:
Alfie dat z
Franzen legwand nyquist
Tatar Sheahan jurco when healthy again forgot him...miller for now
Glendening helm Ferraro

Kronwall smith
E DK
QUINCEY and lashoff or kindl.


Unfortunately z will be out for season most likely. Hopefully dat back soon!

 

I'd go with the exact same top 3 lines, although I doubt Babcock will.

 

Abdelkader is missing and he'll definitely be in the line-up, Weiss will too if he gets healthy. Ferraro will definitely be back in Grand Rapids, and its likely Jurco will too If everyone is back from injury.

 

Fully healthy I think the best we can hope for from Babcock is something along the lines of

 

Zetterberg - Datsyuk - Alfredsson

Nyquist - Legwand - Franzen

Tatar - Weiss - Sheahan

Abdelkader - Helm - Miller

 

scratches - Glendening, Bert. Andersson

 

Kronwall - Ericsson

Dekeyser - Quincey

Lashoff - Smith

Kindl




#2498852 Epic Video of a Minor League Goalie doing the Wobble

Posted by FlashyG on 22 March 2014 - 12:03 PM

If one of our players tried doing that, even without gear, they would wind up on IR. 

 

Darren Helm would pull his groin watching that video.

 

 

that sounded dirtier than I wanted it too.




#2498788 % chance of making the playoffs

Posted by FlashyG on 22 March 2014 - 12:54 AM

How does a Chicago win affect us?

 

+0.1% for Chicago's Win.

 

Tomorrows games that affect us are

 

Minnesota v Detroit

Toronto v Montreal

San Jose v Washington

New Jersey v New York R.

Philadelphia v St. Louis

Dallas v Ottawa

Winnipeg v Carolina

 

If we win in regulation or OT our chances improve to 64.8%, Winning in a shootout improves our chances to 64%.

Losing in OT or a shootout improves our chances to 54% and losing in regulation drops our chances to 42.5%

 

Best case scenario for us is all the bolded winning in regulation. That would improve our chances to 70.5%




#2498761 % chance of making the playoffs

Posted by FlashyG on 21 March 2014 - 09:58 PM

Here are the schedules of the teams we're fighting with.

Toronto (3 pts ahead but played 2 more games)

Montreal
@New Jersey (2nd of back to back)
St. Louis(3rd in 4 nights)
@Philadelphia
Detroit (2nd of back to back)
Calgary
Boston
Winnipeg
@Tampa Bay
@Florida
@Ottawa

Rangers (3 pts ahead but played 2 more games)

@New Jersey(2nd of back to back)
Phoenix (3rd in 4 nights)
Philadelphia
@Calgary
@Edmonton
@Vancouver
@Colorado
Ottawa
Carolina
Buffalo
Montreal

Columbus (1 pt ahead but 1 more game played)

@Islanders (3rd in 4 nights and 4th in 6 nights)
Detroit
Penguins
@Carolina (2nd of back to back)
Colorado
@Philadelphia
Chicago (2nd of Back to back and 3rd game in 4 nights)
Islanders (3rd in 4 nights and 4th in 6 nights)
Phoenix
@Dallas
@Tampa Bay
@Florida (2nd of back to back and 3rd in 4 nights)

Washington (tied in pts but 2 more games played)
@San Jose
Los Angeles
Boston
@Nashville (2nd of back to back)
Dallas (3rd in 4 nights)
@New Jersey
@Islanders (2nd of Back to back)
@St Louis
@Carolina
Chicago (2nd of back to back)
Tampa Bay (3rd in 4 nights)

Our remaining schedule

@Minnesota
Minnesota (2nd of back to back and 3rd in 4 nights)
@Columbus (4th in 6 nights)
Montreal
@Toronto
Tampa Bay (2nd of Back to Back)
Boston
Buffalo
@Montreal (2nd of back to back and 3rd in 4 nights)
@Buffalo
@Pittsburgh (2nd of back to back)
Carolina (3rd in 4 nights)
@St Louis
 
 
Looks to me that the Rangers and Leafs have far easier schedules than both us and Columbus. I expect Washington drop off in the next few games and the race for that final playoff spot to come down to a dogfight between us and Columbus.
 
Its kind of irritating that the Rangers who have the easiest travel schedule in the entire league also get the benefit of having almost none of their games on back to backs while we have 4 sets of them in the final 14 games. 



#2496321 Maple Leafs 2 @ Red Wings 3

Posted by FlashyG on 17 March 2014 - 11:48 PM

It seems the title of the thread was cut off.

 

Its supposed to be titled "There are no Playoffs...There is only Zuul."




#2496312 Maple Leafs 2 @ Red Wings 3

Posted by FlashyG on 17 March 2014 - 11:26 PM

gC5ibra.jpg


 


Abdelkader is a game time decision, if he's out Landon Ferraro will be making his NHL debut. If that's the case I have no idea which line he'll be on. Leafs lines are an educated guess.




#2488706 Trade deadline fast approaching - who should we target?

Posted by FlashyG on 02 March 2014 - 10:25 PM

As a few others have mentioned, it takes time for prospects to turn into regulars or stars. Very rarely do guys come into the NHL and put up 80 points. The far more common route is a guy come up, plays 60ish games and has 30ish point. Next year more games and more points. 3rd year the same. That was the route with most of our stars now. It took them 3-5 years to hit their potential. So, are we a really good team in 3 or 4 years by standing pat? Maybe. First not all of our prospects will work out. Second Datsyuk is then gone. Third, will Z's back hold up? Fourth, will Franzen still be around or will concussions have ended his career by then?

Four years from now, Kronwall may also be done. same with Howard. E will be in his mid 30's. Most if not all of those guys will playing fewer games and putting up fewer points as they travel through their mid and late 30's. In other words, we will be treading water.

 

In 3 to 4 years, Datsyuk may be gone, but Z's back will be better than its been in a decade after his surgery, this type of procedure works wonder on the type of pain he's experiencing. Suggesting Franzen's career could be over due to concussions is as likely as suggesting Crosby's will, its a possibility but not one with great probability. 

 

It is true though that all 3 will be a lot less productive than they are right now, but Nyquist, Tatar, Jurco and Sheahan will be at their peaks and in some of their cases will be far better players at that point than Ryan Kesler, especially considering Nyquist is already playing better than him.

 

What we need both now and for the future is a #1 defenceman, I think the chances of getting one out of Sproul, Ouellet, Marchenko, or Backman is greater than the chances of getting one via trade. The best we'll get right now is Edler who is another #2 guy. You have to draft and develop defensive anchors, once you have one you never trade it away.




#2488685 Trade deadline fast approaching - who should we target?

Posted by FlashyG on 02 March 2014 - 09:12 PM

 

No offense, Flashy, because you're a good dude who makes kickass GDTs - but I'm an immature, impatient, impetuous Wings fan, and I grow weary of "Let's wait until next season, because..." There will always be high-quality players available at the deadline, true - but there will also always be reasons, excuses, rationalizations as to why we shouldn't do anything.

 

We have to improve significantly if we want to win one more Cup with Datsyuk and Zetterberg. I'm high on our young guns and Griffins, but Ouellet, Sproul, Pulkkinen, Jarnkrok - they're all at least one more season away. And even then, they'll only be rookies. (Brendan Smith is a reminder that being a very good defenseman in the NHL is very, very, very hard.) Meanwhile, our core will be that much older and probably less effective.

 

Free agency sucks. We know the script: most of the top guys will re-sign, and the ones who don't will be looking to Get Paid and therefore won't be coming to Motown, because we're generally averse to bidding wars these days. We can't realistically expect a Daniel Alfredsson to fall into our collective lap every summer. (Collective Lap. Add that to the band name list.) Even Weiss was sort of a stroke of luck, as he was very keen on becoming a Wing. And, given Weiss's monumental struggles, I fear Kenny's never going to take a chance on a high-end free agent again.

 

The only other option? Trade.

 

I feel like maybe the stars are aligning for us here on the trade front. The cap room we'd need? Suddenly we have it. The attractive young roster players we'd need? Nyquist, Tatar, Sheahan, Jurco. Potentially high (and therefore quite valuable) first-round pick? Yep. And, of course, a wealth of promising prospects. (In Mantha - who may be having his first and last this-kid-is-just-plain-better-than-everyone-else season - we have, for the first time in a long time, a prospect that any and every GM in the league would probably love to have.)

 

I'm not saying we should sell the farm, our future.

I'm not saying we should be in on high-priced rentals like Vanek.

I'm not saying we're a contender who just needs one big trade to put us over the top.

I'm not saying we absolutely must make a big trade.

 

I'm saying...Why not now? Why not doing something this season?

 

I feel we're in a position to make a significant move. I don't know that such a move is there to be made, but I've always believed that the possibilities are never limited to the rumors. Nearly any player can be had for the right price; a smart, creative, wiley GM might make things happen. Easy for me to say, of course. But it's also easy to do nothing.

 

/rant

I'm not saying we shouldn't go all in for a chance to win a cup with Datsyuk and Zetterberg around, I'm saying that we'd be better off doing so next season than we are right now.

 

Basically any move we make right now is to improve our chances next season anyways because regardless of what we do, this season is in all likelihood a lost cause as far as cup chances are concerned.

 

The deadline is the worst time to make a trade anyways, prices are through the roof, only a handful of guys are available and a bunch of teams are outbidding one another to get them. If we're going to improve for next season do it at the draft, at least then we know what pick we're giving away, and hopefully we've gotten a better feel on our prospects so we're less likely to give away the good ones.




#2488652 Trade deadline fast approaching - who should we target?

Posted by FlashyG on 02 March 2014 - 07:32 PM

 

Would you trade those guys if it meant winning the Cup this year?

 

We all would, but unless both Zetterberg and Datsyuk are healthy we aren't winning the cup with Kesler and Edler anyways.

 

There will always be players of their caliber available at the trade deadline, and I wouldn't be opposed to trading prospects to get them if I thought it would make us legitimate contenders for the cup, but this year I don't think there is any moves available that put us in that category given our injury situation




#2488649 Trade deadline fast approaching - who should we target?

Posted by FlashyG on 02 March 2014 - 07:25 PM

 

Ehrhoff is signed beyond this year though. Getting him makes this team better going forward regardless of how you look it at. Whether we are in limbo right now or not, it would be a great pick up. They can't revolve decisions like these based around what ifs. If we have someone hurt, than we need to get better. Not stand pat and be all "better luck next year". 

 

Mantha and Mrazek you'd have to think are untouchable. Especially Mantha. But for Sproul or Oulette to be a part of a package for Ehrhoff? No brainer really. We have plenty of kids in the system. 

 

What you are saying makes sense as far as trading for a rental goes. But that wouldn't be the case here. Ehrhoff is a proven player who can improve this team. Sproul and Oulette are 2 guys who MIGHT improve the team a few years from now. 

 

It wouldn't be a great pick-up at all if it costs us our first round pick. Right now we're 5 pts out of drafting 8th overall, and 8 pts away from picking 6th. That would give us around a 10% chance at picking 1st overall. Our Captain is injured for the rest of the season, and will be lucky to be back even for the 1st round, and our best player is clearly playing injured to the point of not practicing on off days.

 

Maybe I'm overvaluing potential but I think we're a far better team holding onto that pick and all our prospects rather than gambling that Ehrhoff who hasn't exactly elevated any of the 3 teams he's played for to new heights, will bring us back to the cup.

 

Also I wouldn't say Mrazek is untouchable, of all our top prospects he's probably the most easily traded. He's not going to be more than a back-up goalie for at least a few years, and would probably be better served playing somewhere where he'll get to start. The problem is goalies with no NHL experience aren't going to return much no matter how high their potential. 




#2488623 Trade deadline fast approaching - who should we target?

Posted by FlashyG on 02 March 2014 - 05:40 PM

I agree with flashy but management needs to trade for a dman preferably Weiss and quincy for a strong dman

 

The problem there is that Weiss is a huge question mark having played so few games over the past 2 seasons and being locked into such a long term expensive deal.

 

Quincey on the other hand is on an expiring contract so he'd be nothing more than a rental to a contender.

 

You'll need to add a 1st round pick, or a couple blue chip prospects to that if you want to get a top pairing defenceman (which is what we need) and even then it doesn't mean anything if we don't have Datsyuk and Zetterberg healthy come playoff time.