ToastyWing

Pumped for this one. Hoping the Wings can win the season opener for the 4th straight year! I really like the top 3 lines. That 4th line though... my prediction: Det 4 - TB 2 (Larkin, Vanek, Tatar goals + Sheahan empty netter)

Kind of interesting that both of Hollands 'disciples' - Yzerman and Nill are ranked (well) ahead of him - #1 and #6 respectively. In fact of the top 10 'ranked' GMs, Only 2 (Nashville and SJ) have been with their team for longer than 6 years. You often hear about Coaches having a 10 year limit on being effective, as their message can often get stale over time and players tend to tune them out. I think that is also possible with GM's (to a lesser degree), their philosophy can become stale, and often times they rely on 'whats worked before' and don't change with the times. Its very easy to get tunnel vision as a GM, and this seems to have been the case with Holland...he was a master at finding the right fit of superstars who could actually play together as a team (its not as easy as it looks - see the Yankees), and he had a knack for surrounding himself with a staff full of people extremely good at their jobs (scouting in particular), additionally, he was/is extremely good at retaining his players. Very rarely do you see a player leave the Red Wings (that the wings actually wanted to keep) - he is loyal . This used to be a positive attribute as it showed other players that once you're a Red Wing, they will take care of you, and there was no salary cap so who cares if its a slight over payment - hes 'our guy' now, and the Wings treat their guys better than any other organization. The salary cap has honestly messed up Holland something fierce. yes he won the cup in 08 but that team was almost completely built prior to the salary cap era. He has tried to adjust - but seems to have overcompensated in some aspects. He used to deal young players and draft picks without a second thought, he now hoards them like they are all the holy grail, and is petrified of trading away a potential 'stud' for an established vet. One area he hasn't changed at all in is loyalty to his players. He still signs guys to very generous contracts (this off season being a prime example), and makes sure they get playing time/a roster spot, even thought there are more talented/cheaper players in the AHL chomping at the bit to player at this level. This is awesome when you have a team full of studs, as you will most likely keep them around, but when your team is full of average NHLers, you need to be cut throat and fearless when it comes to choosing who to keep and who to let walk away. I am not saying that Holland cant be successful again, but history is def. against him suddenly changing his ways and making the necessary roster moves that this team needs. I think a change of scenery would be better for everyone involved...

Maybe I'm crazy, but I don't mind this signing at all...I actually like it. Glendening is the type of guy you want on your team and in your Locker Room. He is probably one of least naturally talented players in the league, yet he makes it because he constantly outworks his opponents, on and off the ice. That kind of commitment and will to work is worth something...I truly believe that. Additionally, he is young - this contract will take him through his prime years. This isnt us signing some 30+ year old career grinder who has seen his best days. How often have the Wings signed a player to a contract which consists only of their prime years (ending at age 31). I honestly cant think of many... He has improved his point totals every single year hes been in the league, going from 7 to 18 to 21. I see no reason to think he cant surpass 30 pts in a season at some point over the duration of this contract. He reminds me of Draper in many ways - and their careers have been prerty similar to this point. Draper was overlooked and essentially given to the wings for free. Glendening was un-drafted and not taken seriously until the age of 24 when he finally cracked an NHL roster. At the age of 27 Drapers career high in pts was 23. Glendening just had a 21 pt season. Drapers next 4 seasons he had pt totals of 12,24,30,35 pts. Who's to say Glendenning can't have a similar career path? If you think otherwise what evidence supports this? It's true the Wings have far to many forwards at the moment, but there that doesn't mean this is a bad signing, it just means Holland needs to trade some of them. Of all the contracts Holland has given out this offseason, this nowhere near the worst. IMO of course

I was referring to the (unofficial ?) votes they had back in 2011-2012. Also just the 'eye test' for me - ya he never scored the most points (which is basically the requirement for winning the Hart Trophy it seems), but he was one of if not the most talented players in the NHL for a solid 5-8 years. http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/2012/02/detroit_red_wings_pavel_datsyu.html I personally would have no problem with Z and Osgood having their jerseys retired. I love both of those guys and think they both should be in the HoF, but just for me I view Dats and Feds as slightly higher on the Red Wings 'Legends' chart. That being said if the Wings somehow manage to get another Cup while Z is on the team - his first as a captain - then he will have his jersey retired IMO

For me it comes down to two things: 1. Were they the best player in the league at any point in time? 2. Would I be genuinely upset if someone else wore their number while on the Wings? Out of the four you listed above, only Datsyuk and Fedorov meet 'my' criteria - Datysuk never won a hart trophy, but he was voted by his peers as the best player in the league, and is considered one of the most talented stick handlers of all time. - Fedorov is in the HOF, was a hart trophy winner, and even though he left on semi bad terms, was one of the best players on the Stanley Cup teams. Most importantly - I would be upset if anyone wore either of those numbers, which is really how I judge it haha

Nielson did outscore Datsyuk, but only by 3 pts (52 vs 49) even though he played in 81 games, compared to Datsyuks 66. I personally think the trade off between last years Datsyuk and next years Nielson will be a wash. That being said, I also voted that the team will be better this season, but by how much depends on whether or not they swing a trade for a Defenseman. Currently Id say 'slightly' better (as in 2-6 pts better). But if they can get a legit Defenseman (top 2 pairing, not necessarily an elite D-man), Id bump that prediction up to 6-10 pts better. I think that Blashill being in year 2 (and having an improved coaching staff) will help a lot. I know some of you (myself included) were down on him at times last season, but I have not given up hope that he can be a top coach in this league. I just cant see the entire team struggling to produce like it did last season. I haven't checked the numbers, but I think that of our top 10 most important players, damn all of them had their worst seasons (outside of rookie years). I expect Nyquist, Tatar, and Sheahan to all top their point totals from last year. If one/more of them are traded for a Defenseman, then I expect some combination of AA/Mantha to produce at a similar rate as those guys did last season (but our D would be better in that situation). I expect Kronwall to be much better this year. I think he was embarrassed by his play, particularly 'post knee injury', and I expect to see him come into the season with a chip on his shoulder. Yes hes 35, but there are plenty of players who are productive at that age. Besides, he managed a measly 3 goals and was -21 last season (which was last on the team by a decent margin)...if he doesn't perform better this year, then honestly he needs to retire. Zetterberg I'm more torn on...he looked really bad at times last season, and clearly is not a top line (or even 2nd line) guy at this point in his career. I personally think think he got worn out...he has 20 pts the first 23 games of the season, and only 9 pts the last 20 games of the season. If he were to play on the 3rd line/have his minutes limited to 15-16 per game (he was at 19:20 last year) he could be far more consistent and still have some gas in the tank for the playoffs. For the goalies - thats a toss up....I can see Mrazek being a stud all year, or being inconsistent again. If im betting, I go with the first option, but I am also an optimist at heart lol.

I agree with you that Subban would have never been dealt to us since we are in the same Division as Montreal, but what makes you think Weber wouldnt have been available for the right package? Its a moot point now, but I find it difficult to believe Holland couldnt have thrown a package together tempting enough to get the Preds to bite....assuming he sack'd up and was willing to deal some combination of Mantha/AA/Svech/Nyquist/Tatar/Picks/etc. Just FYI - if the Wings did trade for Fowler, I would be happy. I think hes a good player (not great but good, and a solid upgrade over what we have currently), and he also went to my same High School lol. I just don't think it would be 'enough' to turn this team around. I would rather package several (all) of our assets for a Home Run / Top 10 Defenseman, over trading for a few very Solid, but ultimately not top end players. That being said, I understand the odds of another top D-man being traded this offseason (let alone to Det.) is extremely low, so best case scenario for me would be getting a player in the same category as the two you mentioned (Shattenkirk/Fowler) + Dumping Jimmys contract (Not necessarily in the same trade). If he can do that Id say this off season was a success. (But the team still wouldn't be a contender in my mind - even though they'd be better for sure)

Is Fowler a Legit #1 D-Man? His best season was arguably his Rookie year - hes been trending down a bit, especially the last two seasons. While hes a good player, trading an above average young Forward for an above average young Defenseman doesnt do much for me -it might improve the team slightly, but not enough to make us a contender. IMO this team needs a shake up badly, and should make a big move for a big impact player (Defenseman). There are only a handful of those in the NHL, but the Wings can make a run at one of them if Holland is willing to take some risk and part with some young prospects....Its funny because up until last year Illitches other team (Tigers) was run by Dombrowski - who would constantly trade highly regarded prospects for star players (which almost always worked out in the Tigers favor). Holland is the absolute polar opposite and seems mortified at the thought of trading away a future superstar. This is okay in some (rare) cases, but 99% of the time I'll take a proven NHL talent over an unknown, regardless of how high that unknowns upside might be.

Thanks - not sure if you are being Tongue and Cheek with your question or not lol, but no - while I have watched the vast majority of Wings games the last 20 years or so, most of my info was pulled from stats found on the interwebz.. As for how reliable/useful these types of metrics are for scouting - I am not sure...scouting is heavily based on judging potential over current results, and to my knowledge there is no reliable method to calculate potential in Hockey (or any sport for that matter). IMO Advanced metrics are best used at finding undervalued players already at the NHL level (or close to it). Everyone knows who the elite players are. You don't need Corsi/Fenwick/(insert name here) stats to know that Crosby and Karlsson are elite players, or that McDavid is going to be a Stud. But the average fan might not be aware of how good of a player someone like Tyler Toffoli is who was 2nd in the NHL with a 59.3% Corsi ranking, despite averaging over 17 minutes per game. Smart GMs I assume us these types of stats to make the final decision between two or more seemingly similar players (or I would if I was a GM lol). (Edit: sorry for formatting...still new to this)

I admittedly didn't know much about Corsi numbers (or other Advanced metrics for Hockey) prior to this thread. I think they are very interesting, and agree that they can be useful if used in combination with a number of other traditional methods of evaluating a player. That being said in order to get a more accurate 'number' on a players worth, one would need to go much deeper than simply 'total shots attempted for - total shots attempted against' as that can lead to some ‘weird’ results. In particular, this method seems to 'reward' Players/Lines who take the most shots, regardless of the quality of said chances, as well as ‘hurt’ players who average the most ice time (and subsequently go up against the better competition). Tatar was mentioned as leading the team in the Corsi rating in 2013-2014, which makes sense because he led the team in shots that season (158). However, he was 5th on the team in shooting percentage at 12%, and 6th on the team in pts (39 pts in 73 GP). Additionally, he had an ATOI of 14:21 which was 11th among forwards that season, which indicates he was routinely playing against other teams 2nd and 3rd lines. Nyquist on the other hand had the 5th highest Corsi rating that year, even though he led the team in shooting percentage at 18.3% and was 2nd on the team in pts with 48 (1 behind the team lead) despite playing only 57 games and averaging 16:51 Min/game (5th amongst forwards). Anyone who watched that season would tell you Nyquist was far and away the better player of the two. Yet Corsi ratings indicate otherwise. This past year(2015-2016 season) is a similar story: The top 10 Wings Forwards based off of Corsi Rating (Min 500 min played) are as follows Player | Corsi | ATOI --------------------------------------------- Datsyuk 57.4 19:39 Tatar 56.4 14:21 Nyquist 54.4 15:10 Richards 54.0 14:58 Helm 52.0 15:04 Larkin 51.9 16:33 Sheahan 51.5 15:14 Zetterberg 50.7 19:25 Abdelkader 49.6 18:26 Glendening 45.1 14:35 Outside of the Magic Man (who despite playing on one leg and being old, was still our best player) - 5 of the next 6 players averaged about 15 min or less. This tells me that the Corsi rating depends a lot on the quality of your opponent. Only the elite players will have a top Corsi number while also playing top 3 minutes. That being said - I think it is useful, and Ive enjoyed looking into it today, but as many of you have said already, its best used as a supplementary tool to evaluate a player. I still use the eye test personally, but when comparing players I dont watch all the time, this can come in handy, to a certain degree.

Ha - ya I've been a long time lurker on these boards and noticed that Eklund is routinely called out for being unreliable. I just added the article for some additional context - I am more curious what everyone thinks it would realistically take to trade for an elite D-man. Its been a long time since Holland has made a bold move, and trading for Karlsson (or a player similar to him) would be just that. I personally think that this team would be much better off if they were to somehow secure an Elite Defenseman who can move the puck and make good/crisp passes, than they would be if they kept the D Corps the same (or made a slight upgrade) and had brought in an elite Forward (IE Stamkos). Obviously signing Stamkos would have been preferable because he wouldn't cost any assets, but if TB suddenly put Stamkos and Hedman on the trading block (which isnt happening, just a theoretical) I think that the Wings would be better off trading assets to acquire Hedman, as he has the ability to help the entire team/make several players 'better'.

Apologies if this is the wrong thread for a trade thought - but with the seemingly surplus of Forwards currently signed, the logical move for Holland going forward would be to package some of them in trade to land a top pairing Defenseman. Last week I would have thought getting a top end guy would have been impossible, however the Subban trade made me question things, so I was wondering what you think it would take for the Wings to land Karlsson from the Sens? According to an article written in April, no Senators player is safe - including Karlsson. http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/GARTHS-CORNER/Karlsson-On-The-Trade-Block/6/76279 This could just be a ploy by the new GM to put his team 'on notice' but assuming Karlsson really IS available, what would the price be? My first thought would be Nyquist + Svechnikov + Marchenko + 2017 1st Rd Pick for Karlsson. Would this be enough? Would this trade make the Wings better? It would essentially be two 1st round picks (Svechnikov being last years 1st) + Marchenko/Nyquist, for a top 3 D-man in the league. (Again sorry if this is wrong area to post question - just thought it was interesting, even though its likely a pipe dream)

Solid signing in my opinion. It's funny (or maybe sad?) that Helm got paid $1.3mil more than Vanek this year considering its almost guaranteed that Vanek out produces him this season.