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e_prime

Member Since 05 Sep 2005
Online Last Active Today, 11:07 PM
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#2651403 2016 Trade Deadline Thread

Posted by Buppy on Today, 06:10 PM

 

Larkin is good, he might be great in a couple years.  That doesn't change the fact that there are no good defense prospects in the system, just some guys who might be solid second pair guys some day.  Dekeyser is at best a decent #2/excellent 3rd pairing guy, not even close to elite.

 

Who else has had what the Wings have had in the last decade?  Chicago, LA, Boston, Pittsburgh have all been better by quite a bit.

 

The Wings are 2 points out of second place.  The Isles are also 2 points behind the Wings with 2 games in hand, knocking Detroit out of the playoffs entirely.  It goes back to the "good enough" mentality.

 

This team is not good.  It struggles to score.  There's no chemistry and little structure.  The defense is mediocre at best, the stars are aging, the support players aren't good enough, and Larkin and Mrazek are probably the only things keeping them from being well out of the playoffs right now.

 

Holland has lost whatever trust he built up with the Cups.  He's handed out terrible contracts, signed a string of duds in free agency, and has been paralyzed with fear of trading the next great player who comes out of nowhere, but then doesn't want to give the prospects a shot until he has no other choice.  There was zero need to sign Richards with Larkin, AA, and Mantha in the system, but he's so overcommitted to "over ripe,"  which used to be just a phrase meaning we have a lot of good vets, that he's incapable of trusting the very kids he refuses to trade.

The problems you site aren't problems that can be fixed by trading. At least not nearly as easily as you make it seem. 

 

I think you are so convinced that the rest of the league is beating down Kenny's door trying to give us their best players for our prospects that you can only explain the lack of trades on "fear". Even if you ignore the three prospects and three picks he's traded in the last two years, that's pure conjecture.

 

The only prospect that was credibly rumored to be untouchable in recent history was Smith. Maybe Mantha before last year. In hindsight you can say Smith was a mistake, but considering we were on the brink of losing most of our defense, it's hard to argue that we shouldn't have been trying to hang on to our top D prospect at the time. Nyquist and Tatar were both rumored to be in trade offers. Pulkkinen has never had the trade value some here think he does/did. Nor have any of our D prospects. Given who we have traded, I can't see why you'd think he'd be too shy about trading any of them.

 

There may not have been any need to sign Richards, but there was also no real need not to. I don't believe having AA or Mantha in his place changes where we are now. With Richards, we get a more or less guaranteed level of performance, plus we still have the option of bringing up AA or Mantha. 

 

I disagree that Holland has handed out terrible contracts or signed a string of duds. He hasn't been able to land the impact players people have wanted, and had to settle mostly for depth guys. I don't think that makes them duds. Just seems that way relative to what was hoped for. Weiss didn't work, but other than that most have done what could be reasonably expected. 

 

I also disagree that our support players aren't good enough. Very few teams have 4th-6th forwards as good as Tatar, Nyquist, and Abby. Bottom 6 hasn't been great this year, but it's a good group. Bottom 4 defensemen, whichever 4 we want to consider the bottom, is probably above average.

 

Our issues are at the top, not the middle or bottom.




#2651400 2016 Trade Deadline Thread

Posted by Buppy on Today, 04:45 PM

 

Based on scouting and the team's own projections.  I don't see "well, most guys drafted there don't make the NHL" as an excuse.  Holland is smart enough to know that it's extremely difficult to build a winner without high end players, they don't have those guys with the possible exception of Larkin, and he is doing nothing to address it.  Instead he hands out bad contracts, hoards his prospects, and won't let anyone leave unless they make it clear they want no part in staying.  I'm not satisfied with year after year of mediocrity, sliding into the playoffs and losing in the first round and saying"well, if this or this happened, I think we might have won that round, and after that you never know."  

 

Dave Dombrowski went overboard with trading and made some crap moves, but at least he was smart enough to realize that most prospects don't live up to their ceiling and moved them when the value was high to get established players in their prime.  Holland used to do that too.  Now he seems afraid that if he trades a guy like Pulkkinen he's trading away Finnish Hull like a bunch of fans say.

 

A couple years ago when arguing against the "everyone is untouchable" mentality, I suggested that if a guy like Jamie Benn or Tavares was available and it would cost Nyquist, Sproul, Pulk and a first then you have to do it, and I was told by several people "no way that's too much even for a guy like them.  Is there anyone who wouldn't do that deal now from the Wings perspective?

 

To win the Cup, you need two high end forwards and an elite defenseman, or the harder road with one elite forward, a high end defenseman, and an elite goalie.  The Wings might have one forward in Larkin, lesser possibilities in Mantha, AA, or Svechnikov, a guy who looks like he might be an elite goalie, and nobody close to that on defense.  That means at least one, and ideally two, trades need to be made.  Goalies are notoriously hard to predict, I've seen far too many have a ton of success early then fall back to earth to put too much faith in Mrazek yet.  Holland seems to be content to just sit on his hands, make some minor moves, and stand pat rather than take any risks anymore.  If you're not improving, you're going backwards, and the Wings aren't improving.

Nyquist and Tatar were never expected to be more than what they are. Jurco maybe had some high hopes when he was drafted, but has mostly been underwhelming from his first year in GR. Pulkkinen has played 60 games. 

 

You can say all you want that if we could trade prospects for proven stars we should do it. And you're right. But we can't. A couple years ago, Nyquist, Sproul, and Pulk wouldn't have been anywhere near enough to get Tavares. Not in the ballpark. Not even in the same state as the ballpark. By your logic, unless your drafting a "sure thing", you should trade all your picks every year for proven talent. But no one does that. Why? Because if you're trading potential for a guarantee, it takes a lot more potential.

 

The best you can do is something like Seguin. A guy who seems on the verge of being a star, but not quite there yet. But those deals are very rare. Maybe you can find a player on an expiring deal and hope to re-sign him. Maybe pay some potential to upgrade a roster player. But no matter what, if you're paying potential, your taking some risk. Not just risk that what you're giving up might turn out to be better than you thought, but risk that what you're getting might not be as good as you hoped. Taking risks can be fine, but they need to be appropriate. 

 

The reason we aren't improving isn't because Holland is too risk averse. Not too content or standing pat. Not bad contracts or hoarding prospects. It's because what we've been losing, to decline and retirement, is offsetting the improvements we've made. If you want to get rid of all the prospects and young players, but keep the declining players, you're going to get more of the same unless you get really lucky to find the next Seguin. And even if you do, you've eroded your secondary talent.

 

It's far too simplistic to say you need two elite forwards and a defenseman to win a Cup. For one, almost any team can say they have that, or at least borderline. You also need quality secondary players. Losing the latter in the hopes of finding the former is almost certain to fail. Maybe you do land that star, and if so finding the secondary players is easy by comparison. But it's much more likely that you fail to find a star, or a good enough star, or a star you can keep long enough to build the rest of the team.

 

Trying to build through the draft (without tanking) is itself a risk, but no moreso and no less likely to work than trying to build the core of a Cup team through trades. Certainly more difficult to draft a star without tanking, but drafting a star player or two or three doesn't make a Cup team either, and tanking doesn't even guarantee a star. The vast majority or rebuilds peak not far from where we are now.

 

We're not a mediocre team because our secondary players aren't stars. It's because our stars aren't stars. Our stars are also nearing the end of their careers. So change is inevitable, though maybe slower than some would like. If we're looking to take risks, it should be with players we are reasonably sure won't be part of our future. Maybe we decide that Pulk, Jurco, and Sproul won't fit in the future, but we're not going to get anything significant for them. That's the definition of the minor moves you're criticizing Holland for. If we also dump some salary we might get a decent rental who probably won't make much difference, and will keep us in a tight cap position. We can also be sure that Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Kronwall won't be part of our future. At least not much of it. Potentially looking at a much better return, and doesn't also require extra salary dumps. That's the risk we should be considering.




#2651381 2016 Trade Deadline Thread

Posted by Aethernum on Today, 01:16 PM

That's fine but we've been saying future future future and kept getting progressively worse as a team every year. And that's my point. Years ago our "future" was Nyquist, Tatar, Sheahan, Jurco, Pulkinen. Well believe it or not those guys are in the NHL now. And of those 5; 1 is scratched, 1 has mostly been scratched, 1 centered the 4th line today and was demoted because of AA. And 2 that are in their supposed prime are being outscored by Larkin - 19 year old.


That's because Larkin is our future, too. He's our home run hit. Nyquist and Tatar were/are solid doubles. Jurco and Pulks are still in development. Mortgaging our future for the present would be a strikeout. I don't like striking out. I like consistency and the occasional home run hit and the chance every year to compete for a Cup by making the playoffs. How many other teams have had what we have had, even in the last decade?

Look, we're one game out of second place in the division. Why the doom and gloom? At the beginning of this season, everyone predicted that we'd just miss the playoffs. Right now, we're solidly positioned to not only make the playoffs, but to have a chance to challenge for a top spot in the division. So why the insistence that our team is collapsing and the end is nigh?
 
Between Larkin, Mrazek, DD, and our young guys in AA, Marchenko, etc...I think we are better situated for the future than just about any other team in the NHL, and most people who do this for a living would agree. And we've managed that while still managing to make the playoffs every year and take Stanley Cup winners and finalists to 7 games. I ask again - how many teams have had what we have had? It's a short list.
 

You can have all the shiny new parts to a car but you won't be able to build anything out of it unless you have the correct parts. We have way too many small players. Needs have to be addressed. It's about getting better as a team and having a complete package. I think AA, Larkin are good pieces to hang on to. But I don't see how we can have 3 of Nyquist, Tatar, and Pulkinnen who are literally some of the smallest players in the league. 
 
So either tankit and do the future the right way instead of the bs way or rebuild on the fly. If you're rebuilding on the fly then do it correctly. We're one or two important pieces away from being a cup contender.


I refuse to accept that tanking is the right way to do the future, and I think any real fan of hockey would agree with me. You take care of the present by taking care of the future. You don't mortgage the future for the present, and you don't trash the present for the future. Say what you will about this team right now, what we've done is the future the right way. Also, half the teams in the NHL are one or two important pieces away from being a Cup contender. That's what the salary cap does to you. 
 
When it comes right down to it, I don't understand the fan experience that is perpetually mired in negativity and paralyzed by the fear of loss. It's like we refuse to enjoy victory because we're so terrified of the emotional letdown of an inevitable defeat. Is this a great team? Not yet. But it's a good team. Enjoy that. Appreciate it. Acknowledge it.
 
If Holland makes a slam dunk deal at the trade deadline, I'll be thrilled. But if not, let's have the perspective to say to ourselves that maybe, just maybe, Holland knows what he's doing, and to see that he has our team positioned - again - for a playoff run and a bright future.
 

People need to get out of la la land where they expect playoff teams...in our division...who are directly competing with us...to deal us there best players.


But, but, but...we're Detroit! Isn't that how it works? Being rational about these things is such a pain.


#2651284 2/6 GDT : New York Islanders at Red Wings, 7:30 EST

Posted by Hockeytown0001 on Yesterday, 05:06 PM

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#2651274 2016 Trade Deadline Thread

Posted by kliq on Yesterday, 04:41 PM

The irony in all of this if the team did a proper rebuild post Lids they would have been in a much better position going forward and would be able to acquire some real talent instead of 2 months rentals.

 

By proper rebuild, do you mean tanking? I think the problem is that people want immediate success when it comes to the Wings and cant take the fact that they still may be a couple years away . What do you define as a "proper" build. You have said in the past that you thought that the Wings should have dumped everyone minus Zetterberg, Datsyuk, and Kronwall. What do you think that would have done for them? I love the way the Wings are re-building, they have completely reshaped their team, and at the same time stated competitive.




#2651266 2/6 GDT : New York Islanders at Red Wings, 7:30 EST

Posted by kickazz on Yesterday, 04:32 PM

OMG, NY announcer joked that the bad ice may be due to Flint water.

Really? Poisoned kids and that's his joke? Wow

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Smith made sure Marzek wont get a shutout xD


#2651196 Should the Red Wings Trade for Byfuglien?

Posted by kickazz on Yesterday, 02:46 PM

FYI if Dustin Byfuglien was on our team right now ... Mr. Fatty would be third in points behind Larkin and Z. A bit embarassing that a fat guy is outscoring our small skilled forwards while playing defense! He also has more goals than everyone on our team except Larkin. It's hilarious. 




#2651237 Should the Red Wings Trade for Byfuglien?

Posted by Hockeytown0001 on Yesterday, 03:38 PM

Big Buff in Detroit would be awesome sauce. 




#2651232 2/6 GDT : New York Islanders at Red Wings, 7:30 EST

Posted by puckloo39 on Yesterday, 03:27 PM

Athanasiou on the PK.   If I can't have Miller there, I like Athanasiou.

 

Agreed!  We have to start replacing missing parts, like Miller... not just band-aiding.  I hope AA is up for good after today.




#2651223 2/6 GDT : New York Islanders at Red Wings, 7:30 EST

Posted by jimmyemeryhunter on Yesterday, 03:17 PM

Yes, please keep athanasiou in the damn lineup.


#2651220 2/6 GDT : New York Islanders at Red Wings, 7:30 EST

Posted by puckloo39 on Yesterday, 03:14 PM

You should adopt this as your catch phrase when we're not getting calls.

 

 

hey, it worked, didn't it??  Me and Mickey are givin' 'em hell today~~




#2651216 2/6 GDT : New York Islanders at Red Wings, 7:30 EST

Posted by jimmyemeryhunter on Yesterday, 03:13 PM

No calls for the Wings again this game.  In other news it's Saturday.

for those without a Detroit feed, Mickey was just saying the Wings have no killer instinct.  He's right.  Now would be the time to get another goal, and not sit on a two goal lead which could easily be a one goal lead, then tied, then.... we are not the Vinner....
 
Please step on the gas, Wings.


You should adopt this as your catch phrase when we're not getting calls.


#2651218 2/6 GDT : New York Islanders at Red Wings, 7:30 EST

Posted by Hockeytown0001 on Yesterday, 03:14 PM

That's what we got Green for. Need more of it. 




#2651204 2/6 GDT : New York Islanders at Red Wings, 7:30 EST

Posted by Hockeytown0001 on Yesterday, 03:04 PM

Huge missed call on Richards, he's rightly pissed. 




#2651192 2/6 GDT : New York Islanders at Red Wings, 7:30 EST

Posted by jimmyemeryhunter on Yesterday, 02:39 PM

4 shots on goal.
2 goals.

I'll take it.