This is a nice story about O'Reilly's work ethic when he's got himself a contract, but currently he's a hold out and that can be viewed by many as a "bad attitude" or "bad teammate."
I think he could be a great player, but I wouldn't throw $5 million a season at him just yet.
Adrian Dater (Avs writer) offers up this analysis, which I think sums up nicely the counterpoints for all the "IS COLORADO DUMB OR WHAT!?!? SIGN THIS GUY ALREADY" analysis that's out there.
(Dater even admits to some of that analysis himself.)
I am a mean sarcastic writer sometimes. Just the way I am, take it or leave it. But I pride myself in being fair.
So I was thinking today: I’ve been a little tough on the Avs in the Ryan O’Reilly situation. Ripping on them for take-it-or-leave it offers and essentially saying “How can you not sign this guy?” But I also think it’s fair to try and put forth a counterargument as to why the Avs may be in the right for taking a hard line in salary talks.
Let me, therefore, be fair and point out a few things about O’Reilly, maybe try to channel the Avs and their thinking a bit. I’m not saying this is what they are thinking. I’m saying I’m going to channel them as best I can.
- O’Reilly wants to be paid like a 30-goal scorer in this league. He scored 39 goals his first three years in the league. He’s never even scored 20. Guys who steal a few pucks and score 15-20 goals are great (his career high is 18, last year), but they aren’t $5 million a year players.
- O’Reilly is basing all his salary demands on one good year. He wants at least $5 million a year for one good year. But he’s played three. Sorry, kid, but you haven’t proven yourself enough yet to get that kind of money. Besides, if you’re as good as you say you are, then you’d have taken a one- or two-year deal, played your butt off and put up another big and maybe even better year and PROVEN you’re not just a one-year wonder. Then, you would have really had the Avs by the shorthairs at the bargaining table.
Then, you would have been eligible for arbitration and pretty much gotten any salary you’d want from the arbitrator. Or, you would have forced the Avs to cry uncle, admit you’re the real deal and then gotten that long-term deal for maybe even more money than you want now.
But you want to be guaranteed huge money for a long time without truly having proven yet that you can do it consistently.
- You had your best scoring year playing with the NHL rookie of the year. (Duchene) Which came first, the chicken or the egg?
- Your camp may be ridiculing supposed friend and teammate Matt Duchene for taking a short-money contract and thereby setting a floor too low for your own self. Fine, but guess what? Matt Duchene worked his butt off this summer, got himself in incredible shape and has played great this season, and now he’s likely looking at a huge new contract before too long. Maybe the Avs even reward him already with a rich contract extension before too long, to not have to worry about keeping him down the road.
That could have been you.
Oh, and by the way: Duchene put up 132 points his first two years in the league. You put up 52 and were a combined minus-3. In fact, your career plus-minus is -4.
- Speaking of that great last season you had, can we talk about the last six games of the year? You know, the ones that were the crunch-time games, the ones that would determine if the Avs made the playoffs or not, the ones where the really great players are supposed to rise to the occasion?
Your stats for the final six games: Zero goals, one assist, -2.
Over the final 18 games, you scored two goals for us.
- How do you think you really come off to your teammates? As a team-first guy, or a me-first guy now? Think about that one hard.
OK, I’m back to my normal self again. Channel time over. I think now that I have accomplished my mission of being fair and presenting both sides.
Now, it’s up to the real parties involved to channel the rest of this story.
EDIT: Formatting. The cut and paste job of the article made it impossible to read.
O'Reilly has to agree to the offer sheet. If he wants's $5mill a season, then he certainly isn't going to sign a $3.364/yr offer sheet. If this drags out long enough, I'm seure an offer sheet is not out of the question. But it will be for the money he wants, and Colorado I'm sure will certainly match. For $5mil/yr the compensatio would be a 1st and a 3rd. For a playoff team, that's not really an awful price for a top 6 forward. Again however, if an offer sheet goes to O'Reilly it would have to be outrageous for Colorado to not match.
Oh yes, I understand all that. If the sides are as deadlocked as they seemingly are, an offersheet is just what O'Reilly or the 'lanche may be looking for. Someone else to force their hand into making a deal. Which is why I find the idea of an offer sheet for O'Reilly to be amusing.
If you're truly interested in him on your roster, you don't offersheet him. You pry his rights from Avalanche for a younger roster player and/or a decent prospect and/or a 2nd or 3rd round pick. (Depending on how you value him)
Then you offer O'Reilly a serious wake up call of a deal.
He's turned down both deals the Avalanche have offered:
2 years at $7million (3.5 cap hit) and 5 years at $17million (3.4 cap hit.)
He wants 5 years/ $25million
I don't think O'Reilly is worth $5 million/year. It's a shame that Colorado signed David Jones to $4/yr -- he's healthier than Jones... and yeah, he was only drafted 30 spots lower than Duchene in the same draft, but he's no Matt Duchene.
(Who will be looking for a new contract very soon) EDIT: I thought Duchene's contract was up this year.
If he's looking around the league at other contracts... Well, he's no Jamie Benn either, which is what he think's he's worth.
He's gotta look at the bridge deals that Del Zotto and Subban got and seriously understand that with the new CBA and lower cap next year it is going to ensure that sane GMs don't overspend on solid, but yet unproven talent.
Take that bridge contract and play your guts out for that next contract.
Had Tootoo squared up like a man and fought like fighters are supposed to do, Reaves likely would have destroyed him. He's much bigger and a much better fighter. So, it's no surprise that Tootoo threw the sucker punch, otherwise he gets pummeled.
You conveniently missed the video of the Tootoo/Bertuzzi fight, I guess? Tootoo has the ability to hold his own against larger fighters. While I'm certainly not going to give Tootoo any points for the sucker-punch, he saw the opening and took it. If he ends up doing this while he's on the Wings, I'll probably grumble a bit, but at least we'll have some snarl again.
That's more or less the package that i'd give up if i were Holland. Tatar is a really good prospect, Emmerton can be a good depth/role guy and Kindl could work out well for the Flames with more responsibility and ice time. With a $6.6 mil price tag, that automatically drops JBo's trade value cause the other team is eating his salary and his past 3 seasons all under 30 points leaves much to be desired as Drake said. There's no way Kenny offers more than that, but at the same time, we need another Dman to jump in the 7th position if Kindl goes. I wish Janik was still here to be that guy. Also, with Bouwmeester on the trading block, teams know that the Flames need/want to get him out to shed salary and beef up their terrible roster with at least a couple good players.
Bouwmeester is on the trading block because he is expendable now that they have Wideman. They'd certainly love to dump his salary, but like it has been said before, Calgary does not NEED to trade JBow. They could just as easily dump Babchuk if they're looking for a bit of cap or salary relief.
Without Bouwmeester, Calgary still has seven defensemen. Kindl isn't going to see an increased role with the Flames. He'll be a third pairing guy or healthy scratch. ...and if he can work out for Calgary, why can't he work out here. I'm of the camp that think he's made improvement and will continue to do so if he sees the same amount of responsibility here in Detroit. ...and we DON'T have Janik. ...or Meech. ...or any other defenseman on the Griffins that's seen much NHL time. So, why at this point would we dig ourselves, albiet possibly smaller, another hole to fill on defense?
We need a stay home defenseman more than we need another puck moving guy. Sign a FA that we won't have to give up a single roster or prospect for. If we want JBo so badly, we should go after him with forwards and a pick. I don't necessarily think that they are, but IF the Flames are so desperate to dump him, it should not take Fil or Franzen.
It's funny how Rutherford is able to hand out these contracts (Semin, Skinner, Ruutu, and Staal) while Karmanos asks for a 24% rollback in salaries. They're already spending $7 million more than last year.
Question: If Nashville tanks this season and Weber does want out... what does it take to get Weber into a Detroit jersey next off-season?
My guess would be to get good ol' Stevie Y on the phone and work out a nice three way deal again. In fact, I think maybe Holland should try this approach more frequently as so many teams seem unwilling trade with us.
...and this soon to follow...Holland misses out on Bobby Ryan as this guarantees Ryan will be a Flyer if traded...f***!
Dude you are *so* negative. ...and I can't believe you want to trade Flip over your new whipping boy "Franzine."
Whoops. Just noticed Franzine is in the second option... which is still mystifying to me.
The joke about Howe and the veiled joke about Vladdy are classless. I know it's a "roast" but at the expense of former players battling dementia and permanent paralysis it's not particularly funny. There's a whole team of players that could have been better utilized for hilarity's sake... Oh wait, that would have required better writers.