As already noted, more potential as that is all you have to go on in the draft. It is a crapshoot for the most part and you can go on and on all day, week, month coming up with examples of why was so and so chosen over so and so. I'll give you another, why did the Wings pick Jody Gage and Boris Fistric instead of Mark Messier?
My only thought on this is - what did Holland/Nill/amateur scouts see in Emmerton 41st, Matthias 47th, and Axelsson 62nd over Lucic 50th, and Marchand 71st in the 2006 draft?
Looking at the players you pointed out though, using a purely stats based analysis (much more goes into the draft obviously), you'll get the following (from year they were drafted). I left out Axelsson as he was playing in Europe, harder to compare from pure stats perspective vs. the other guys that all played in the CHL.
Emmerton - 6'0", 190 lbs, 66 games, 90 pts
Matthias - 6'4", 216lbs, 67 games, 34 pts
Lucic - 6'4", 220lbs, 62 games, 19 pts
Marchand - 5'9", 190lbs, 68 games, 66 pts
Looking at that and knowing the draft is a crapshoot, it should make a lot of sense as to why Emmerton and Matthias were drafted ahead of Lucic and Marchand. Emmerton clearly looked to have the most offensive upside and he had good size. Matthias and Lucic were both had great size, but Matthias appeared to have better offensive upside (they were both drafted very close together. While Marchand appeared to be better offsensively than those to, he was very small. Guys like him often don't even get drafted. If you are that size, you have to be great offensively to get a sniff and it's not like he was lights out in that regard, he was just about 1 ppg.
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