You've made some bad assumptions:
--> Osgood retires. I have a hard time buying that right now. If he does it'll be a surprise not something you can predict at this point.
--> Holmstrom isn't re-signed. This summer I'd be on board here, but now? No way. If his current scoring pace keeps up he's obviously good for another season. And yes, he'll retire as a Red Wing. For argument’s sake I’ll give him $1,750,000 for one more year. (I doubt he’ll return from injury and keep scoring at his current pace—he always trails off as the season goes on)
--> Leino's still here in October. As much as I was a huge Leino fan coming into this season I just don't see him here in October if he doesn't pick up the pace. At this rate he'll be waived or traded. Maybe not, though, since he still has lots of potential to be a scorer, he just needs a huge confidence boost.
--> Larsson plays in Detroit next season. I'm a big Larsson fan but this just won't happen. He's still got AHL eligibility left and Holland likes his prospects over-ripe. Moreover, I can't imagine a goaltending tandum with a combined 1 season of NHL experience on a Ken Holland team. If Ozzy retires Holland will bring a veteran in on a 1 year contract.
--> Kindl is the 7th d-man. No way in hell. Kindl's considered a huge piece of this club going forward, so just like Ericsson, Kindl will be playing in the top 6 or not at all. Considering that this is his last year of AHL eligibility it's clear he's going to be a member of the top 6 defense (expect tons and tons of bitching about rookie mistakes and turn-overs-- this kid's never had a plus year as a pro hockey player).
--> Contracts for RFA's. You're right on Abdelkader, Larsson and Ritola-- they have no business getting raises. However, the CBA has specific rules for how much players have to get in terms of RFA raises (rules I'm too lazy to look up right now). It's a small percentage that's based on how much they're making at the time. Meech is getting paid less than the current league minimum so he'll get an undeserved raise as well (assuming he isn't waived, traded or allowed to go to free agency). Helm, Miller and Eaves will all get raises, although it won't be significant. As much as Helm would like to see his pay doubled he's still a grinder with almost no scoring upside to speak of-- he'll likely get 1-1.25 million. Miller and Eaves will probably get similar deals. If I had to guess I'd put them all at $1,000,000 each, but knowing Holland they might end up signing for $850,000.
--> Miller AND Eaves are returning. Pick one. They're essentially both the same player. This club is in dire need of more scoring so keeping extra grinders isn't the solution. I'd pick Eaves based on his scoring upside, but Miller's played his role well too. This is a tough call to make. Maybe they both stay like you said, it all depends on the Leino and Hudler situations as well as whether Holland is able to (or wants to) bring in more top 6 talent.
--> Bertuzzi walks. Not likely. He's stated that he wants to remain in Detroit and this is the perfect opportunity. He hasn't been able to stick with one team longer than a single season since he played in Vancouver. This guy does not want to hit the UFA market and start over again. Add to that the fact that he's played excellent this season and this guy will be signing a 2 year contract for a reasonable amount this summer. I'd peg the contract at $2,000,000 although Holland might get him for less-- it all depends on what his goal/pts total is after 82 games. Just to be safe I’ll use $2,250,000 below.
So, with those changes in mind here's what you have left:
2010 Outlook:
FORWARDS:
1) Datsyuk (6.7)
2) Zetterberg (6.083333)
3) Franzen (3.954545)
4) Filppula (3.0)
5) Cleary (2.8)
6) Bertuzzi (2.25)
7) Holmstrom (1.75)
8) Draper (1.583333)
9) Helm (1.0)
10) Eaves (0.850)
11) Miller (0.850)
12) Ritola (0.60)
31.4212
DEFENSEMEN:
1) Rafalski (6.0)
2) Stuart (3.75)
3) Kronwall (3.0)
4) Ericsson (0.9)
5) Kindl (0.883333)
6) Meech (0.5)
15.033333
GOALIES:
1) Howard (0.716666)
2) Osgood (1.416666)
2.133333
Salary Cap: 56.8
Total Salary: 48.587865
Cap Room: 8.212135
So now we have about 8 million dollars in cap room but are minus the player who made the Wings an elite defensive team for two decades. Not good. The d-core in this scenario is s***. Rafalski's the highest paid d-man in this scenario but he's clearly on the decline and is being paid based on his play coming into the contract (which is fine given that Holland knew he'd be overpaying Rafalski at the end of his contract-- that's the sacrifice he made to get Rafi signed here).
Unless next year is officially a rebuilding year the entirety of the money 'saved' from a hypothetical Lidstrom retirement would have to be spent on a suitable replacement. If you subtract Nick from this team and don't provide a suitably elite d-man to replace him the Wings defense will be horrifyingly bad next season. Kronwall, Stuart and Ericsson will all be better next season but that collective improvement can't offset the loss of the second greatest defenseman in the history of the game.
Add Kovalchuk to the roster and the Wings will be scoring in bunches, but defensively we would have to expect a very, very significant decline. Remember-- defense wins championships.
I just hope Holland can convince Lidstrom to re-sign for another year and keep him here long enough to get a handle on just what the top end potential is for the following players: Kronwall, Ericsson, Kindl and Smith. In other words, Holland will want to make a judgment call on whether they can "replace" Lidstrom from within (either with a single superstar, or some combination of quality players).
