Detroit's draft plans

[grsbmd 0]

We've talked a lot about what Detroit should do with their first round pick, so I thought I'd start a topic to discuss what the Red Wings' plans for the draft as a whole should be. To start out, I want to analyze what we already have in the system. I've divided prospects into three categories and placed players where I believe they'll be next fall. Although every team's needs are different, you generally want to have a good variety of prospects (i.e. mobile defensemen, skilled forward, 3rd line grinder ...) at every level.

The first category is Unsigned prospects. This includes junior leagues and overseas leagues. This is where almost all players end up out of the draft. Unsigned prospects are generally 1-3 years away from getting a contract and graduating to the next level.

The second category is Signed prospects. These are prospects who are under contract with the Red Wings organization. Most of these players play in the AHL, although the Red Wings choose to let some develop overseas. This does not include AHL depth players not drafted by the organization. These prospects may graduate at any point due to their performance, but they generally run out of waiver options after 3-4 years (don't remember the exact terms).

The third category is NHL-level prospects. These guys are either out of waiver options or challenging for a full time roster spot on an NHL team.

Here are our prospects (in no specific order), their projections, and their probabilities of graduating to the next level. I've categorized them as I believe they will be in the fall:

Unsigned prospects:

-- Brendan Smith - D - Offensive defenseman - Although he has 3 years of college eligibility left, he's almost a lock to be signed at some point.

-- Joakim Andersson - C - defensive/ two-way center - One of 2007's more promising prospects. Expect to see a contract in 1-2 years.

-- Zach Torquato - C - Skilled forward - did not live up to expectations last year and will need to improve to be signed

-- Sergei Kolosov - D - Physical defenseman - Still in the system, but a long shot of ever graduating.

-- Anton Axelsson - LW - defensive forward - Could still be signed, but hasn't yet because of Detroit's depth in this area

-- Nils Backstrom - D - two-way defenseman - Unimpressive so far and unlikely to factor into Detroit's plans

-- Randy Cameron - C - 3rd/4th line forward - Hard to get a read at this point

-- Nick Oslund - LW - 3rd/4th line forward - Has a lot of time left until the signing deadline and could get a contract depending on Detroit's depth.

-- Bryan Rufenach - D - Mobile two-way defenseman - If he performs well in the next three years, could be signed.

Signed prospects:

-- Jakub Kindl - D - Two-way defenseman - One of Detroit's most promising prospects. Had a bad year, but is expected to challenge for an NHL spot in 1-2 years

-- Justin Abdelkader - LW - 2nd/3rd forward - Performed well in games with Detroit. Should also graduate in 1-2 years.

-- Jan Mursak - LW - Skilled forward - Probably the best offensive talent in the system. Expected to be an NHL player at some point.

-- Cory Emmerton - C - Two-way forward - Will need to continue his scoring at the AHL level to see any call-ups

-- Dick Axelsson - C - Skilled forward - May play in Europe or North America. Can expect to be notice if he plays in Grand Rapids.

-- Daniel Larsson - G - Potential NHL goaltender - Best goaltender in the SEL last year. Can expect to see call-ups and a full time position in Grand Rapids next year.

-- Logan Pyett - D - Mobile offensive defenseman - Will have to impress with skill and speed to be noticed.

-- Mattias Ritola - RW - 3rd/4th line forward - Needs to play a solid two way game and score to move to the next level.

-- Evan McGrath - C - Skilled forward - Unimpressive in two AHL seasons. Needs to score consistently.

-- Ryan Oulahan - C - 4th line forward - Hasn't impressed in the AHL so far. Will need a consistent all-around game to get call-ups.

-- Johan Ryno - LW - Skilled forward - Will need to play in Grand Rapids this season to continue to progress, but is still a great prospect.

-- Logan Koopmans - G - Depth goaltender - Looking to be a career AHLer, could still see call-up duty as a backup.

NHL prospects:

-- Jonathan Ericsson - D - Two-way physical defenseman - Will likely be a full time NHL defenseman this year.

-- Darren Helm - C - Two-way 2nd/3rd line forward - Could see a roster spot this year, but still has waiver options.

-- Jimmy Howard - G - NHL starter - The goaltender of the future could split starts with Osgood this year.

-- Kyle Quincey - D - Physical defensive defenseman - Good enough to play as a depth defenseman on many NHL teams, but Detroit's depth works against him.

-- Derek Meech - D - Mobile defenseman - Detroit's 7th Dman last year, will still struggle for a roster spot, due to defensive depth.

-- Ville Leino - C - Skilled forward - Could see a regular roster spot, if he can adjust to the North American style.

Now onto what Detroit needs to address in this year's draft. Detroit has six draft picks: 30th, 91st, 121st, 151st, 181st, 211th

-- Because 2006 was such a strong year, many prospects graduated to the AHL. Depth is needed at every position.

-- All of the goaltending prospects are close to the NHL. This is a decent year for goaltenders. With two netminders with NHL potential, perhaps they will draft a long-shot goaltender later in the draft.

-- There is only one skilled forward among the unsigned prospects. Most of the others have graduated to the AHL level.

-- Although they're difficult to find, there are no power forwards in the system at any level.

-- The two physical defensemen (Ericsson, Quincey) are close to graduating, and the only other physical defenseman (Kolosov) seems to be a long-shot.

-- Although there are plenty at the AHL level, there is only one good defensive forward among unsigned prospects.

That being said, I'm not familiar with a lot of the prospects this year. I'll leave it up to others to speculate which players might fit which needs. Feel free to add your own observations.

[B.B. 0]

Good analysis. I think our biggest needs will be to draft a power forward, and a physical defensemen. In the later rounds, we will probably take a goalie, and a couple of undersized, skill guys that you hope can develop and turn into the next Hank or Pavel.