Building on last year's thread I made...

[lookalive07 251]

My curious and mathematical mind took some time to create a spreadsheet that takes the current standings (as of 3/22/11), and calculates how many points each team in the playoff race is on pace for.

For those who are interested, I took each team's overall record, their last ten record, and their record against each team remaining on the schedule and calculated percentages for their ability to gain points against these teams. I took some averages and did some math and figured out what the playoff race might look like if each team played on pace for the remainder of the season. This is what I came up with:

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINAL STANDINGS

1. Vancouver - 120

2. San Jose - 107

3. Detroit - 106

4. Los Angeles - 104

5. Phoenix - 102

6. Nashville - 102

7. Anaheim - 100

8. Chicago - 99

9. Dallas - 99

10. Calgary - 94

(No matter what, Phoenix would have more wins in this situation, which scares me because we'd play Nashville... )

According to my calculations, which are based on algorithms designed to calculate point totals that teams are on pace to have by the end of the season. if a team is doing better as of recent, their percentage to gain points is higher, as is if they have a better season record and if they have gained more points against an upcoming opponent over the season series. These percentages are then averaged and a decimal is produced, which tells me how many points down the stretch can be added to their current total.

tl;dr version: Essentially, the algorithms calculate these totals using the Last 10 games stat, season series and overall record.

There are a few situations where Chicago misses the playoffs while Dallas makes it, one of which being my favorite option, that being Detroit wins their last three games vs. Chicago, which gives Detroit 108 points and Chicago only 96.

Chicago's situations to attain 11 pts in 9 games:

-> 5-3-1, 99 pts, 45 wins overall

-> 4-0-4, 99 pts, 44 wins overall

-> 3-1-5, 99 pts, 43 wins overall

-> 2-0-7, 99 pts, 42 wins overall

Dallas' situations to attain 13 pts in 9 games and make the playoffs:

-> 6-2-1, 99 pts, 46 wins overall

-> 5-1-3, 99 pts, 45 wins overall

-> 4-0-5, 99 pts, 44 wins overall

Any situation with less wins down the stretch would give them less wins than Chicago, thus keeping them out of the playoffs. If tied, it would depend on GF, which Chicago would likely win since they are ahead right now by about 30 goals. Thus, Dallas needs to go 6-2-1 or better in order to make the playoffs. Chicago can still make the playoffs with a 3-1-5 record or a 2-0-7 record if Dallas does any worse than above because they would have less than 99 points.

I also calculated these for my optimal situation as I stated above, where we beat Chicago each game for the rest of the season:

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINAL STANDINGS

1. Vancouver - 120

2. Detroit - 108

3. San Jose - 107

4. Los Angeles - 104

5. Phoenix - 102

6. Nashville - 102

7. Anaheim - 100

8. Dallas - 99

9. Chicago - 96 (99 if they lose in OT or SO)

10. Calgary - 94

And if you were curious, the East doesn't change one bit if everything goes on pace.

Edited March 25, 2011 by lookalive07