nkuehnl

I did read the thread. Your numbers are impossible, which is why I ignored that post. Detroit sits at $50.19 million without signing anybody. Pencil Hossa in at $6.1 million and Detroit is at $56.29 million. That leaves $.41 million. The cap is not going up next year, so the $57 million figure is a fallacy. Your only suggested trade is Lebda, who makes $.65 million. Detroit is now at $55.64 million. Detroit cannot re-sign Kopecky, Downey, and Leino for a combined salary of $1.06 million; it is impossible. Even if I accept your random addition of $.3 million to the cap, it is STILL impossible to sign those 3 players. Furthermore, Leino makes $.875 million right now; there is absolutely no way he signs for less than Hudler's current deal ($1.015m cap hit). So, to sum up, even if I: a) took away Abdelkader (stupid, because he will bring more to the team than Maltby or Downey) b) assume the cap will raise to $57 million (with no evidence to back this up) c) assume Leino will only make Hudler-money Detroit is still over the cap by a slim margin and the team is spread so thin offensively that one injury to Hossa, Datsyuk, and Zetterberg would hurt the team significantly instead of just being a bump in the road (e.g. Hossa this year). Osgood has been awful, the team defense has been mediocre, and people are suggesting to make the roster top heavy offensively. There's no sense to it. I'll ask again: who on that roster is going to make up for the ~80 goals (including ~11 game winners) that will disappear with Hudler, Franzen, and Samuelsson? It sure as hell won't be Filppula or Cleary, who currently see 16-17 minutes of ice time per game and will only score ~25 goals combined by the end of the season. How about Holmstrom? Anyone think he's going to repeat his offensive performance despite being older, slower, and now tackling injury problems as well? How do you think a year-older Osgood will perform -- when he's already been average-to-below-average this year -- with a weaker team next year? Obviously Detroit's roster will be worse next year simply because we can't afford to sign everyone. It makes a hell of a lot more sense to keep Franzen, Hudler, Samuelsson, and Leino over Hossa and Stuart. The two groups make similar money, but the first group outproduces the second by a vast margin and Detroit wouldn't have to worry about seeing Downey or Meech play significant time up front.

Sorry, but both of those are ridiculous claims. Using projected totals, Detroit will lose 84 goals and 181 total points after taking away Franzen, Hudler, Samuelsson, and Kopecky. Who on next year's roster will be able to make up for that loss? It won't be Leino, because we can't afford him. Filppula and Cleary haven't been reliable scorers, so it's not going to be them. I also sincerely doubt Helm or Abdelkader are going to break out like Hudler and Franzen. Not to mention the fact that signing Hossa at 6 million (which isn't necessarily realistic) automatically puts Detroit over the cap for next season. Detroit would be forced to shed salary just to be cap compliant, and then they would have to use whatever limited cash left over to fill in the empty roster spots. As I said earlier, this is our 09-10 roster -- again, at 57 million dollars -- if we sign Hossa and do nothing else: Hank-Datsyuk-Holmstrom Cleary-Filppula-Hossa ??? - Helm - Abdelkader Maltby-Draper-Meech ??? Lidstrom-Rafalski Kronwall-Stuart Lilja-Ericsson Lebda Osgood Howard Cleary and Filppula are not reliable scorers, regardless of whatever anecdotal evidence LGWers want to post. Both players average almost 17 minutes a game and yet the only players they regularly outproduce are named Kopecky, Maltby, and Draper. Meech is a terrible forward, Abdelkader is unproven, and Helm is not entirely reliable at this stage of his career. Draper and Maltby are also getting older and less effective. Holmstrom is beginning to have injury problems and is also aging. Tell me again how this roster has depth. Furthermore, Detroit is currently 19th in goals against per game (2.9). Only three playoff teams are worse in that regard. Conklin is 10th in GAA (2.45) and 23rd in SV% (.911); Osgood is statistically the worst starting goaltender in the league being 39th in GAA (3.14) and 43rd in SV% (.884). The team is also 26th on the PK (78.2%), which is absolutely terrible. Regardless of whether SV% is a team stat (hint: it's not, and the evidence is in the Conklin/Osgood comparison), you're saying that our goaltending/defense/PK will be fine next year despite the fact that: A) Osgood will be a year older and a year slower. B) Detroit will replace Conklin -- who has been good -- with Howard, who has been wholly unreliable in all of his starts over the years. C) Detroit's roster will be significantly downgraded. This is all without opening the can of worms that is the scenario of trading Stuart or Filppula, which brings in way too many variables that would make this post longer than it already is.

This is precisely why the model won't work for Detroit. The teams paying that much for superstars also have great goaltending to make up for the lack of depth.

Signing Hossa would be a stupid move, in my opinion. How can anyone justify spending almost $33 million on 5 players? That's assuming Hossa is fine with $6 million, too. $33 million locked up on 5 players: Hank, Datsyuk, Hossa, Lidstrom, Rafalski $14.75 million locked up on the next 5 players: Stuart, Kronwall, Filppula, Cleary, Holmstrom $9.23 million on the rest: Draper, Maltby, Helm, Abdelkader, Lilja, Meech, Lebda, Ericsson, Osgood, Howard = ~$57 million for this roster with gaping holes: Hank-Datsyuk-Homer Cleary-Filppula-Hossa ???-Helm-Abdelkader Maltby-Draper-Meech Lidstrom-Rafalski Kronwall-Stuart Lilja-Ericsson Lebda Osgood Howard That roster would still have to lose something in order to be cap compliant. The depth is already terrible. A healthy version of that roster makes the playoffs without too much difficulty but injuries could potentially ruin them. If they traded Stuart, they could grab Kopecky and Samuelsson, but then you're looking at a defensive core with no depth at all. Samuelsson-Helm-Kopecky Maltby-Draper-Abdelkader Lidstrom-Rafalski Kronwall-Ericsson Lilja-Meech ??? The point is, two of Franzen/Hudler/Leino at $6m-$7m is much more important to this team than a $6m-$7m Hossa. No team can't afford to pay for 5 superstars without suffering elsewhere. edit: especially when they've already got 2 questionably high contracts (Stuart, Filppula) and below-league-average goaltending.

If it's not Detroit... The Columbus Blue Jackets go to the Finals and defeat the Boston Bruins. At least, those are the two teams I'd like to see win it if not for Detroit.

Hopefully Holland doesn't think like you, otherwise Detroit is looking at some serious roster problems next year. I was of the minority opinion that Stuart shouldn't have been signed last year and it's obvious that his 3.75M contract is going to hinder Detroit for the 09/10 season. He had his moments in the playoffs, but he's been about as effective as Lilja this season and Lilja plays for one-third of the cost. I'd rather have Franzen or Hudler over Stuart, especially when Stuart's replacement would be Ericsson. Of course, I'd also rather have Hudler or Franzen over Filppula as well. Hudler-Franzen-Leino Kronwall-Ericsson looks much better to me than Cleary-Filppula-Leino Kronwall-Stuart

This. Stuart and Rafalski both have market-reasonable contracts, too, so it wouldn't be difficult to come up with a lengthy list of interested teams to present to either of the guys. It's not like their only options would be terrible destinations.

09/10 roster, ~50 million dollars Zetterberg - Datsyuk - Holmstrom ??? - Filppula - ??? Cleary - Helm - ??? Maltby - Draper - Abdelkader Lidstrom - Rafalski Kronwall - Stuart Lilja - Ericsson Meech - Lebda Osgood Howard That leaves ~6 million dollars to sign the following players: Hossa Franzen Hudler Leino Samuelsson Kopecky It would be quite a task to win the Cup with the above line-up. Detroit would have to pray for no injuries because they would have no room to tinker with the roster at the trade deadline. Holland, therefore, must make a trade (or multiple trades) before next season or accept the fact that his team is not going to be at the upper echelon of the league. Players who could be traded Forwards: Filppula (3M cap hit/4 years left) Let's face it, he's been less than stellar offensively this year and he's at least 5th on the defensive depth chart for next year's potential roster. Three million dollars is a bit high for his play right now and his skillset is redundant when comparing him to the rest of the Red Wings. Cleary (2.8M cap hit/4 years left) I don't have any problems with Cleary, but I think it's possible he could be traded. At 2.8M, he doesn't really provide the type of offense to be a mainstay on either of the top two lines. Samuelsson and Holmstrom both outproduce him at a cheaper price. Cleary is better than Holmstrom defensively, for sure, but Cleary can't reproduce Holmstrom's PP output. As for Samuelsson/Cleary, if it's a matter of saving 1.2m-1.5m, give me Samuelsson every time with the current cap problems Detroit has. I've heard some people mention Maltby and Holmstrom, but they're both UFAs after next season and it's extremely unlikely that Holland would trade either of them. Defensemen: Rafalski (6M cap hit/3 years left) He's been lousy defensively, for sure, but do point out which of our defensemen have been defensive stalwarts this year. On top of that, he's the 4th scorer on the team behind Datsyuk, Hossa, and Zetterberg. We already have to suffer Samuelsson playing the point on the PP, I don't really want to see what happens when we get rid of Rafalski, too. I'd say it's possible that he's traded, but very unlikely. Stuart (3.75M cap hit/3 years left) He had a decent playoffs, though I think Kronwall's run helped to overrate Stuart. If Ericsson can play more minutes next season (and by all indication, Babcock seems to think so), Stuart is too expensive for a 4th defenseman. Lebda (.65M cap hit/1 year left) Useless, especially with Meech and the emergence of Ericsson. As of right now, I doubt that I'll see Lebda in a Red Wings jersey next October. Meech (.5M cap hit/1 year left - RFA) He's cheaper than Lebda and Detroit could use him as a reserve next year (or as a 6th, depending on if any of the above are traded). He'll be here if Lebda isn't. Goalies: Osgood (~1.4M cap hit/2 years left) Honestly, I don't see the point of keeping him around after this season. I'd rather see them take a chance on Howard and there are cheaper back-ups available. That said, I find it hard to believe Holland would get rid of him a second time. Howard (~.7M cap hit/2 years) Howard's expendable with the emergence of Larsson and McCollum. I don't foresee Detroit getting a whole lot out of Howard in a trade though. I'd rather see him get a chance to run with the team next year. My argument is that trading Filppula and Stuart would give us the best return and best salary relief. As for who I'd want from our own FA list: 1. Franzen 2. Leino 3. Samuelsson 4. Kopecky 5. Hudler 6. Hossa Keep in mind this is obviously not a list based on my favorites or on skill. Hossa is last simply because re-signing him is not feasible. Hudler is second-to-last because I don't think he's going to be worth the money spent and I think we could get a nice return for him by trading his RFA rights. Kopecky won't get much of a raise; he's an effective role player; he still has some untapped offensive potential. Samuelsson is cheap and effective for what he does (aside from playing the point on the PP, but I digress). Leino could be locked into a cheaper, long term contract and he's got great potential. Finally, Franzen brings too many different skills to the table to let him walk. On that list, he's the second best defensive player (to Hossa), the biggest and most physical player, tied for second best offensive player (tied with Hudler [though Franzen is much more capable of doing things by himself], second to Hossa), and he's also the perfect replacement for Holmstrom on the PP.

Zetteberg - Datsyuk - Holmstrom Franzen - Filppula - Hossa Leino - Helm - Hudler Cleary - Draper - Samuelsson Matlby/Kopecky Lidstrom - Rafalski Kronwall - Stuart Lilja - Ericsson Meech/Lebda Osgood Conklin ZDH needs no explanation. Franzen/Filppula have connected before, and Hossa has to go somewhere. There's not a whole lot of chemistry with this line but Hossa and Franzen are capable of getting things done by themselves. It'll be hard to score against this line, too. Helm/Leino and Helm/Hudler have awesome chemistry. That's a hell of a 3rd line. Put simply, that's the best 4th line in the NHL. They're all scrappy and defensively responsible. Combined, they also have enough skill to pot some clutch goals. The defense is the same as it was last year, but Ericsson is bigger, stronger, and better than Lebda and Meech. Let Osgood have his chance; if he fails, put in Conklin. I'm a Conklin guy all the way but if Ozzie finds his confidence, he can take this team to the finals again.

The only upgrade Detroit could have made was in goal. That's really not feasible when we're paying 5 players 6m+, though. Holland's post-cap model has been spending money on skaters and relying on a team defense rather than getting an all-star goaltender at the expense of superstars up front. This isn't going to change until Lidstrom retires. Nobody made an upgrade yesterday that was better than Drake-->Hossa, so I don't think we have anything to worry about. Calgary certainly got much better, but we have no control over that. Holland's "trade deadline" is going to be at the draft where he has quite a few decisions to make: Sign Hossa? Sign Franzen? Sign Kopecky? Sign Samuelsson? Sign Hudler? Trade Hudler's rights? Sign Leino? Trade Leino's rights? Trade Stuart (3.75m) for salary relief? Trade Filppula (3m) for salary relief? Trade Lebda (.65m) for salary relief/roster space? That's way too many questions mark on the team already without adding in the headache of a trade deadline acquisition.

Filppula is better defensively and he is physically stronger. Offensively, Hudler is better. But, Filppula is a small part on this team and it really won't matter what happens with him in the long run. I would be just as happy with this second line instead: Hudler-Franzen-Hossa

It's coming. I don't think Hossa will be here longer than a year unless we lose some other significant players. This is a one year shot for Hossa. He's not going to pass up a $70m+ deal twice in a row. Hopefully he wins the Cup before fading to obscurity in Edmonton, though.

Bingo. The Pens are the best team in the East right now, and that's all the writer is trying to say. That said, they are highly overrating Fedotenko. Fedotenko played with Lecavalier or Richards for most of his time in Tampa and he didn't do anything. I can't see how Malkin or Crosby are going to turn him into more than the 45-50pt player he is. Satan is also not better than Sykora, and Sykora scored 60 points. Still, even though their wingers are mediocre, they have the best centers in the conference and a great young defense backstopped by Fleury. Pittsburgh has nothing to worry about.

Vancouver has an amazing defense and one of the best goalies in the league. Their young players are stepping up, and Sundin would instantly legitimize their 2nd line. Vancouver is a couple of forwards away from being a serious contender. Sign Sundin now, make it to the deadline, and acquire a big name forward and you're set for a good chance at the Cup. Detroit: great chance at winning, 7 million dollars Vancouver: decent chance at winning, 20 million dollars It's not an easy decision.

Huselius for any kind of money would be a bad move for this team.

Samuelsson was terrible everywhere until he came to Detroit. His defensive play was nonexistent. Huselius is also a better offensive player than Samuelsson, but that doesn't mean anything. Huselius wouldn't be any worse than Samuelsson, defensively, once Babcock and company were through with him. In the long run, they're both 3rd line players who somehow masquerade as 1st/2nd line players. We don't need 2 of those types of players.

No thanks, we already have a Samuelsson. Plus, I don't really want to see the results of reuniting Lilja and Huselius.

Zidlicky was sliding down the depth chart anyway. Hamhuis, Weber, and Suter are all better players now. This gives them some room to go after a winger like Rolston or Naslund.

Gallant was a terrible coach in Columbus. I wouldn't want anything to do with him.

Are you really saying Lilja, Lebda, Chelios, and Meech are all better than Weber? Really? Really? Weber would immediately step in and share the #3 duties on the depth chart with Kronwall. It is also practically a guarantee that Weber will be better than Kronwall over their respective careers. Weber is already better offensively, and he has the tools to be better defensively as well.

Aside from the Conn Smythe, I would say the Pearson is the most prestigious. Being named the MVP of the league by your peers is much better than being named MVP by sports journalists. Vezina would be number 2 simply because being named the best goalie in the league is essentially another MVP award. Goalies also seem to be overlooked a lot for the Hart and Pearson. So, in my opinion, I'd rank it like this: 1. Conn Smythe 2. Pearson 3. Vezina 4. Hart

The #1's. A) Detroit isn't getting twice the picks now and they're doing just fine drafting those gems in the late rounds. B) Players that go 1st overall are much different now than they were 10 years ago. In addition to getting a Filppula, Zetterberg, or whoever at #91, Detroit could also get an Ovechkin, Crosby, or Stamkos at #1. C) Detroit could easily trade that #1 pick and get a fantastic package that helps them right now, as opposed to having to wait for the player to mature. Double picks sounds tempting, especially with our management and scouting, but that first overall is a sure thing nowadays and you're not going to find many Crosbys or Ovechkins outside of the top 2 picks.

Kopecky was one of our better forwards down the stretch. I can't believe how many people are writing him off.

It's something like that, except ~40 regular season games or at least one finals game. Kopecky will definitely get his name on there.

This. Detroit can talk all they want about how they retaliate by scoring instead of fighting, but so far they've been completely ineffective on the PP. The 1 goal they've scored came with ~12 seconds to go in the 1st game, so they're essentially 0-fer this series. Granted, 14 powerplays is not a favorable statistic considering a few of those ended early or began later and only ran for 10-30 seconds, but still. The biggest thing will be weathering the storm. It seems inevitable that Pittsburgh is going to score their first goal at home, and that is going to give them a tremendous boost, especially with the crowd behind them. Detroit would do well for themselves by scoring first and not faltering if Pittsburgh puts one in the net. Detroit's looking really good and Babcock is absolutely pumped for Game 3, so I have a ton of confidence that they can pull this off. Pittsburgh is going to play their best game yet, but Detroit sounds ready to up the ante as well.