mmamolo

Me chosing the words 'simple probability' was probably misleading. I didn't mean to imply that I was looking at it from a purely evenly weighted probable outcome standpoint. No two situations, in sports, are ever the same. I assumed that that was implied. You're right, if you were to look at it from how you were explaining, it is just as likely. However, the intabgibles make it very unlikely and, again, I assumed that would be implied. Either way, it's no big deal. We're getting into something based on semantics and interpretation of my original wording.

The probability of each team is not weighted evenly. On a dice you have the same possibilities of rolling a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6. Here you have intangible factors that make certain teams better than others. Adding to that teams relative probabilities of finishing in certain spots has changed from last year to this year. For Example: The probability of Detroit winning the Central Division last was say 95%. While the probability of them winning this year is say 50% due to Chicago being that much more improved and Detroit being that much more weak. Coupled with that you have to consider the probability that Columbus finishes in a spot to recreate the matchup. Their relative probability has also changed. With teams like LA and Edmonton improving and Columbus and St Louis staying relatively the same the probability of LA or Edmonton of making the playoffs has gone up while the probability of St Louis or Columbus making the playoffs has gone down simply by the improvement of LA and Edmonton's probability. This changes everything. You're right if you were to look at it as though it is completely an evenly distributed probability, but it's not.

I think it's kind of funny ppl are listing guys that when in their prime were amazing players but those guys never spent their prime with Detroit. The one name that stuck out to me when reading this thread was Curtis Joseph. This guy had some unbelievable years no doubt, but his time in Detroit was forgettable. I would imagine that when compiling a list like this you would make it with Wings players who performed best as a Red Wing. If you're going to do it with guys who suited up for the Wings while out of their prime, but had insane numbers and seasons while in their primes for other teams the list gets silly. Chelios (3 Norris trophies, none with Detroit) Hull (Hart, not with Detroit. 86 goal season, 131 point season etc.) Robitaille (12 30+ goal seasons, only one with Detroit) and so on and so on You get my point.

Although the seeds would be different you've got the exact same four playoff matchups predicted for 2010 as we had in the 2009 season. Simple probability says that the chances of that happening are extremely small. I don't think Vancouver will be that strong. I say Clalgary wins the Northwest. I'd also like to mention how every single year the media all predict Detroit to be weaker. Heading into every playoff the media predicts Detroit to stumble. Most often to not the media doesn't give the Wings the credit they deserved. It's no shock everyone thinks the Wings will stumble this year. I guarentee you that even after the two dominant playoffs runs Osgood has gone on the last two years when it's time to enter the playoffs this year the media will claim Detroit has questions marks in net. Personally, I'm used to the Wings being underrated. It makes it all the sweeter when they show them up. That being said, I'm not sold the Wings will end up the first seed but I do think they will still win the Central. I'm not entirely sold on Chicago. I think they had a fairly easy route to the WCF last year. Calgary crumbled and Vancouver never gets passed the 2nd round becuase they don't score enough come playoff time even with Luongo in net. Now taking Khabibulin away and going with Huet as your number one kinda stings too if you ask me.

Hossa's whopping 3 assists in 7 Stanley Cup finals games certainly didn't help. His 15 points in 23 playoff games wasn't what we were expecting from him. That being said, 15 points in 23 games is by no means terrible; it's just not what you expect out of a guy of his caliber or from a guy who is getting paid what he was. Personally, I just think our injuries caught up to us and our offense dried up. I remember watchign game 5, when we blew out the Pens 5-0, and saying to my friend that we're in trouble. Anytime you blow a team out in tight playoff series you're giving them all the motivation in the world to come back at you harder than ever. Biggest reason we lost was Datsyuk and Lidstrom not being 100%, or even close really. No team can lose guys like that.

I definitely don't think it would be a bad thing to be able to do that to other teams. I just don't agree with ppl saying this team is soft. They are by no means the most menacing team to play against but they certainly don't get pushed around on a nightly basis by every team in the league either.

I agree with what you're saying. It's not up to the star players to be hitting etc. I certainly wasn't implying the Wings have a ton of toughness. I was more commenting on those that say overall the Wings are soft. I agree, I would like to see more toughness throughout their lineup but by no means do I think the Wings are the 'soft european' team a lot of ppl claim they are. I'll also agree Franzen has had his moments where he has looked a little follish in how he reacts to hits etc. But I still think he plays a fairly tough game. Both Zetterberg and Franzen don't make tons of hits but they both drive the net hard, go into the tough spots and absorb their share of abuse. As a matter of fact I think that for the most part the Wings as a team play that way. They may not dish out too much punishment game in a game out but I do think they get into those tough spots on the ice and take the hits to make the plays. With the exception of Williams now (who I dont think necessarily does that) I can't say that I'm ever really overly frustrated with any player not being willing to the abuse. Hudler perhaps could be someone on last year's roster that shyed away a little bit but even that, I don't think I've ever been too frustrated by him. At the end of the day, ya I agree it would help to add a some tougher guys, who can both dish out and absorb the punishment but I feel like the Wings are a lot tougher of a team than they're given credit for. There's a lot to be said about players and teams willing to take the abuse to score and to win as opposed to players and teams looking to dish out the abuse.

I'd have to think about my forwards a little but if it's all time I'd be hard pressed not to include Howe. Seeing as I'm going to be biased to guys I've seen play in my lifetime I'm going to look at it from the stand point of the last 25 years. My D would be Konstantinov - Lidstrom no doubt.

That's a really good point. Plus ppl get complacent and hate to see the same winners. Ppl dont want to just see forwards get all the major awards and they don't want to see Lidstrom win it for a 7th time in 8 seasons. It's just the nature of the beast

I don't think the Wings need a Goon but I wouldn't be against adding more hard nosed, gritty guys to the line up that can play a little bit (like Dallas Drake). But one thing that pisses me off is when our current Wings get called soft. I think Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen and so on all have a bad rep for being soft. I don't think any of them get the credit they deserve in the toughness department. They aren't the toughest guys in the league but they can take hits, give them and most of all the take the punishment to put up points. Ppl can laugh all they want but Datsyuk lays out ppl's left and right in the playoffs. That being said, I wouldnt mind seeing some gritty guys on the fourth line. Maltby used to be one of those guys for us. We don't necessarily ened fighters, although that'd be entertaining, but it does help to have guys like Maltby in his prime that can muck it up, play hard, and get under the opposing teams skin. A team is all about balance. Scoring, defense, grit, skill, experience, poise etc etc. Personally I think we're pretty balanced right now. But that's just my opinion.

I cant see Franzen fighting but that doesn't mean I think he's a ***** either.

I by no means think Filppula is the next Jesus Christ of point production but it seems like some are being pretty harsh on his offensive abilities. This year is his chance to have his break out year. From not only a point production standpoint but from a responsibility and consistency standpoint. At the end of the day I think we'll be looking at him in years 4 and 5 of his current contract and be thinking that we have him at a solid cap hit. Whether you think he produces enough or not I think we'll be happy with the deal we signed him to.

Jackman over Zetterberg was disgusting. I remember being so pissed that Federov lost to Belfour too. Especially seeing as Belfour won the Vezina that year. I was surprised that Hedman was ranked as low as he was on that list as well.

100% agree. I hope Filppula has his breakout year. I dont know that he'll ever become an absolutely stud but I do believe he'll be a 70 point guy in this league one day

Thats f***in funny

Persaonlly I think it's a lot harder to stay on top than ppl sometime's think. I think Lidstrom had the experience, the intelligence and poise to lead this team coming out of the cap. Not only that but he was also the guy who made the most sense. At the time Zetterberg, Datsyuk and co. weren't near ready. You could make arguments for Chelios and guys like that but Nic was rewarded for being a homegrown talent, a guy who puts his team first and a guy who as been through all the ups and down and rigors with this franchise. You can call him an interim captain if you'd like and it's true that if he retires in say two or even three years a 5 or 6 year captaincy isn't that long relative to Yzerman's tenure but I think Lidstrom's captaincy will be remembered for two main contributions. 1. Taking over for Yzerman and keeping the team very succesful now in the cap world where we can no longer spend liek crazy in the offseason. Three straight trips to the conference finals or better is not an easy feat no matter who is on your team. 2. Grooming us for the future. Lidstrom is here to not only groom our young defensemen like he did with Kronwall and is now going to do with Ericsson but he's also groomed Zetterberg and Datsyuk. There are a lot of characteristics that I think they at least in part learned from the way Lidstrom leads this team. When the captaincy is ready to be handed over to Zetterberg (most likely) he'll be ready because of what he has learned fro mLidstrom, just as Lidstrom was ready because of what he learned from Yzerman. Plus I think it's important to think of the effect Lidstrom had on leading all of his fellow swedes on this team. To answer your question directly, I dont think the captaincy is somethign to be given to a guy on a short term period (like a chelios or someone three years ago). I think it shoudl go to someone who has been there a long time and hopefulyl deserves it and will stay a while and be effective. I think any of the other possible choices three years ago weren't ready. I dont think they, or the team, would have had the poise and experience to handle three straight deep playoff runs.

I dont think that's realyl a fair comparison. Lidstrom wasn't handed an already great team. He was part of an already great team. It's not really fair to either Yzerman or Lidstrom to compare them as captains. Both had very different situations, with different ppl around them, and in different eras of the league. During Yzerman's time (a lot of it) we had poor coaches and management. But then when things turned around we bought and traded and signed the best players in the league. During Lidstrom's time, the cap was introduced and we were forced to get more out of fewer all star players. Both Yzerman and Lidstrom have proven to be great captains in my opinion, each for different reasons. I dont think you can ever really compare the two with each other, or anyone else, because situations are never the same. You should be determining if someone is a good captain based on his own merit and how you feel he handles certain situations for himself. You shouldnt think how would Yzernman have handled a SC hangover at the beginning of the 08/09 season. They're different guys, with different teammates, with different coaches, different scenarios, different eras. It's pointless to try and compare apples with oranges.

If Holmstrom resigned for $1M, we retain one of Williams/Bertuzzi for even a mild increase to $1.7 and then we pay Helm and Abdelkader 800k each we'd be left with $11.75M to resign Lidstrom, two more forwards and lose whatever cap space is to be lost with the decrease in the cap.

Even though I definitely wouldnt be surprised to see Holmstrom retire after this year I realyl think he still cuold serve a purpose on a one year deal at $1M bucks. At that point he'd be playing for the lvoe of it, not for money so he could possibily even take a chelios type deal of 800k. I wouldnt turn my back on Holstrom for the 2010-11 season for 800k

I dont know about Franzen getting 80 pts to be hoenst. He's not an assist machine by any stretch. If Franzen puts up his 40, say 45 for argument's sake he'd need 35 assists. He's never had more than 25 assists (last year) so that'd a tall order to fill. I think Franzen ends somewhere in that 40 goals and 30 assists range for 70 odd points.

Exactly. Plus you've got to figure Williams/Bertuzzi wont be back. So money wise we're in solid shape I think

I think there is a lot to be said about the mentality that Lidstrom and the wings approach the game. They're calm and collected. They dont take bad penalties, the play between the whistles and approach all areas of the game with skill and intelligence. I think the fact that Lidstrom is the poster child for this type of play says a lot abotu him being the captain of a team who plays this way as well.

I agree. If anything I think we'd see Abdelkader and Helm sign similar deals to that of Leino this year. 800k/yr over a couple seasons.

I was talking about goals, not points.

You think it'll be Zetterberg or Franzen? I think Zetterberg will crack 40 but I feel like Franzen will out score him