kipwinger

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Everything posted by kipwinger

  1. kipwinger

    2021 Season

    Biega is the safe choice if Cholo or Lindstrom show that they haven't improved at all since last year. Again, he's not helping you but he's not hurting you nearly as bad. I'd give those youngsters their chances, but if they suck then Biega plays until Seider is done in the SHL. To some extent every player on the Wings is chasing the play (aside from Mantha and Larkin). Nobody has very good possession numbers. But what separates Cholo from all the other defensemen is how much more often he starts in the offensive zone (58%). He leads the team in o-zone starts and his shot share is 46%. Compare that with someone like Nemeth whose shot share is an nearly-as-bad 49% but who is buried in the defensive zone 60% of the time. So the Wings actually generate MORE offense under Nemeth (despite having to go 200ft to do so) than under Cholowski who is already right there. The same is true for Hronek (40% o-zone starts, 47% shot share). So yes, the whole team sucks but Cholowski plays the easiest minutes on the team and sucks worse at keeping the puck pointed in the right direction. He is (by far) the most egregious example of this on the team. The next closest player in terms of o-zone starts is Mantha. He starts in the o-zone a lot, but keeps the shot share in the Wings favor pretty significantly (56%).
  2. kipwinger

    2021 Season

    I'd play neither since they're both actively hurting you. Lindstrom's possession metrics are worse than Cholo's. But neither are contributing to offense. Both are actively helping the other team's offense actually, because they both suck. I'd MUCH rather see Stecher and Merrill get those minutes unless Cholowski can demonstrate that he's fixed his defensive issues when he inevitably gets a few games in the lineup. Cholo doesn't contribute to team offense. His personal stats are better than a Nemeth (for instance) so it seems like he does but actually the Red Wings shoot at the other team's goal LESS often with Cholo on the ice. So while HIS offensive numbers improve, the team's offense is worse, when he's playing. Not exactly "offensive" when the team spends significantly less ice time in the ozone when Cholo is playing than when is isn't, despite the fact that he starts there more than any player on the team. I would agree that he has skills that should help him contribute offensively. He's a great skater with a good shot. But those don't do you any good if the other team has the puck whenever you're on the ice.
  3. kipwinger

    2021 Season

    It's all about goal differential (actually shot differential these days). I don't know Ehn's metrics, but whether or not he scores much, if he doesn't get scored on very often then he's not hurting you as bad as a guy who scores a lot but gets scored on way more. In theory it's better to have a guy who scored 1 goal all year and gave up 20 than a guy who scored 15 goals but gave up 40. Both guys aren't adding anything to your wins, but one guys is hurting you worse than the other. And don't just take my word for it. There was a reason why Mike Hoffman, Duclair, and AA were all the last to get contracts and they were all dramatically underpaid relative to their expectations. Edit: As far as Cholo goes, he led the team last year (among regulars) in offensive zone starts (58%) so he is HEAVILY sheltered already and his shot metrics are an abysmal 46%. So despite him being given more opportunity to "generate offense" than anyone else on the team the Red Wings actually get badly outshot when he's on the ice. Or, to put it another way, when Cholo is on the ice more offense is generated for the other team than for Detroit despite the fact that the other team has to go 200 ft. to get a shot and Cholo starts right next to their net nearly 60% of the time.
  4. kipwinger

    2021 Season

    I watched the scrimmage. "Helped off" is a stretch. Bertuzzi skated along beside Svech because he initiated the contact that caused the injury IIRC. Bert was just being a good teammate. Svech didn't need assistance, he was basically fine. Not clear that it was even his arm, could have been a shoulder. Svech was just bent a little over keeping his arm tucked up under him as he skated off so everyone assumed arm.
  5. kipwinger

    2021 Season

    Didn't Athanasiou teach us that irrespective of how many goals you score, if you give up more then it's a net negative for the team? To the extent that Cholo has offensive ability it is overshadowed by how often he gets scored on. Blashill has stated as much. No team (that's trying to be good) is going to throw a defensive liability on the ice game after game just because he scores a point every 3 or 4 games. Sure you can mitigate his shortcomings and accentuate his strengths by sheltering him at even strength and gifting him powerplay time, but he's still got to take a regular shift and he's shown that when he does he gets scored on disproportionate to how often he generates offense. When Cholo learns how to limit the chances against him he'll earn a spot, and get an opportunity to score, and that's how it should be. Otherwise he's just a defenseman version of AA, and those guys suck.
  6. kipwinger

    2021 Season

    TBH I'm amazed that they didn't put a giant f*cking Little Caesar on the side.
  7. kipwinger

    World juniors tournament

    They don’t play with jam.
  8. kipwinger

    2021 Season

    That third line. Woof.
  9. kipwinger

    2021 Season

    Dubois already has a better ppg average than Mantha and he’s 22. CBJ would likely want a similarly productive player (Mantha) to help them now, but we would have to sweeten the pot because Dubois is younger, plays a harder position, and their organizational center depth sucks. I’d be happy to do it for a guy who scored a point per game in last years playoffs going head to head against Austin Matthews and Brayden Point. This kid is VERY good.
  10. kipwinger

    2021 Season

    Apparently Pierre Luc Dubois wants out of Columbus despite just signing a two year deal. This guy is a beast. Wings should move heaven and earth to land him. To Detroit: Dubois To Columbus: Mantha, Veleno/Rasmussen, 2nd
  11. kipwinger

    Johnson, Killorn, and a 1st?

    If I were a team up against the Cap I'd do the exact same thing. It's a shortened season. Why not let Lundqvist or Kucherov or whomever sit out for (basically) half a season to fix some nagging injury rather than lose a bunch of assets?
  12. kipwinger

    Red Wings players / prospects on loan

    I hate to break it to you bleeding hearts, but I don't "care" about the actors who made Breaking Bad either. Love the show, totally entertained by it, but I don't "like" Brian Cranston or Aaron Paul. It's just entertainment. You could switch the rosters of the 90s Red Wings and the 90s Avalanche man for man and I wouldn't give a f*ck as long as the Joe Sakic led Red Wings won just as often as they did in reality.
  13. kipwinger

    2020 Offseason

    From what I understand there's no obvious #1 like there has been in years past and the class is heavy on defensemen supposedly, but I don't really know whether it is deep or not. I'm generally of the opinion that most classes are about the same anymore (because the scouting is so good) and that the only real difference is who's at the very top. If there's a McDavid/Eichel situation people will say the class is crazy good, and if there's Hischier/Patrick they'll say it's bad. But about the same number of guys will pan out from either class. Still too early to tell, but from what I've seen there's no obvious superstar at the head of the class so as long as we're picking in the top 5 I'd assume we're getting a player who's generally as good as any other player in that area.
  14. kipwinger

    2020 Offseason

    I don't really care too much as long as we're in the bottom five. The concensus top pick is Owen Power, who I don't care about considering our depth on defensemen. I'm completely content picking 3-5 and landing one of the centers (preferably Johnson or Beniers from Michigan).
  15. kipwinger

    Red Wings players / prospects on loan

    Not all all. I like sports and music. I'm a fan of one hockey team. But I don't care who plays for them (provided they win). That's the extent of it. However, I don't "like" or care about the players. If Joe Veleno died in a fire tomorrow I wouldn't care. At all. But if the NHL folded tomorrow I'd be pretty bummed because I like watching professional hockey, something Veleno will get to do a lot of from the press box.
  16. kipwinger

    Red Wings players / prospects on loan

    Not at all. I like tons of things. For instance I'd really like you to f*ck off. But I'm not holding my breath. Kinda like I'm not holding my breath that Joe Veleno will ever be anything more than 3rd line center on a non-competitive hockey team.
  17. kipwinger

    Red Wings players / prospects on loan

    I feel about the Red Wings the way I feel about most entertaining, yet inherently meaningless, things. And I feel about you the way I feel about genital warts.
  18. kipwinger

    News From Around the NHL *Mod warning page 75*

    They aren't, he just always seems to lose "must win" games. That's basically what I was referring to.
  19. kipwinger

    Red Wings players / prospects on loan

    You brought it up when you asked, so don't blame me. But I'm happy to help you understand. Watching hockey is entertaining, so I watch quite a lot it. Some players, on all hockey teams, are really good...and therefore more entertaining to watch. However, I'm only a fan of one specific team, the Red Wings, because I'm from Michigan and have a (reasonably) healthy amount of civic pride. If I have a choice between all 31 teams winning the Cup, it would be the Red Wings. I don't really care which players help them achieve that goal. The minute a player stops playing for the Red Wings they fall off my radar pretty significantly, regardless of how entertaining they are. For comparison's sake, I also enjoy watching MMA because it's entertaining. But I'm not a fan of individual fighters because none of them represent the place I'm from in any obvious way. I still watch, I still enjoy it, but I don't care who wins as long as I'm entertained.
  20. kipwinger

    Red Wings players / prospects on loan

    To me "like" is a silly word in this context. I'm a fan of the Red Wings and want them to win. If those two guys help the Wings win I'll be happy about that. But I'd be just as happy if Brad Marchand or some other "unlikable" player helped them win because I don't "like" or "dislike" hockey players (or other people I haven't met).
  21. kipwinger

    News From Around the NHL *Mod warning page 75*

    He should look on the bright side. He can't get lit up in the playoffs if he doesn't play. There's always a silver lining.
  22. kipwinger

    Red Wings players / prospects on loan

    I was responding to the questions you asked man. You said "Do you like Veleno?" and "do you like Seider?". That's what started this. Not my place to speak for you and who you do/don't like.
  23. kipwinger

    Red Wings players / prospects on loan

    It's not clear to me that anyone said he was being "outperformed". It is a FACT, however, that he's being out produced. And that's relevant because his team sucks, so he's being outproduced by players who aren't all that good in a league that's worse than the NHL. Perhaps that doesn't bode well for his NHL upside? Bingo. I like sports and music. I don't like people I've never met.
  24. kipwinger

    2020 Draft Thread

    This is definitely interesting. I'm curious if there's any source for identifying which NHLers use longer sticks.
  25. kipwinger

    Red Wings players / prospects on loan

    I am a fan of the team, I don't care which players play for the team as long as they win. Again I don't "like" people I don't know because that would be silly. I don't "like" actors or musicians either. I like movies and music. I guess maybe because I'm not into personality cults.