kipwinger

Scoring 45 points a season (on average) is not "solid" for a top six center on a good team. You realize that almost no teams win the Stanley Cup with a 2C who only score about 45 pts. The worst 2C in recent memory is Schenn and his .65 ppg is significantly better than Danault's .52 ppg. So if Veleno ends up like Danault, as you've consistently projected, he will play on the 3rd line for any playoff caliber team.

1. As you've pointed out many times there is a pandemic and flat cap. That means that prices are depressed because teams are not generating revenue and are more reluctant to spend. In a few years, when things are more normal, teams may be willing to acquire bigger contracts for their Cup runs. 2. Again, I've said they're probably marginally overpaid but I don't think by much. You've gone on and on over the years about how a good contract awards players a million dollars for every ten points they score. By your own standard Killorn is basically not overpaid at all, and Johnson is slightly overpaid now but wasn't when his contract was signed. Assuming more minutes for Johnson means he'd score another 15-20 pts. a season he wouldn't be over paid either. 3. The value of dealing with Tampa is that you're getting picks/prospects AND useful players. Any other "cap dump" is probably not going to end with the Wings getting good players and certainly not players of Killorn or Johnson's caliber. If Yzerman made three separate trades and got a 2nd round pick, a depth center capable of bouncing around the middle six, and a 2nd line winger that would have led our team in goals last year, all while giving up NOTHING, people would have licked his balls.

So you think Danault is "one of the best 2C in the league"?

1. 30+ year old players get traded all the time. Dont see why this would be different. 2. Their contracts aren't "huge". I agree they may be marginally overpaid, but you're being hyperbolic. 3. The contracts won't hurt the team in the slightest. We will have MORE salary cap space at the ends of their deals than we do now because we'll be replacing big money contracts (Dekeyser, Helm, Glendening, Filppula, Nemeth, Staal, etc. etc. etc.) with ELCs (Veleno, Ras, Seider). To answer your question, I think Yzerman WILL get more in a trade for these two because Tampa is in a tight spot. But in a hypothetical sense, if it was either take a late first for Killorn and Johnson or else take nothing I'd take the 1st. You'd be getting a valuable draft pick that might help you move up at the 2021 draft, you'd be getting two good players to help guide the lockroom and hold young players accountable, and both of those guys will be tradeable later.

I agree with all of this. Players are "elite" or not. And those "elite" players who center the second line are "elite 2C". That's exactly what I've been saying for two days. NONE of the players you mentioned are "elite". None of the players KRsmith mentioned are "elite". And certainly we wouldn't determine a player's position based on where he MIGHT play on a different team. If Luke Glendenging comes out this year and plays on the Wing's 2nd line all year, then he's a (bad) 2C until he isn't. Doesn't matter that he wouldn't do that on another team. Also of note, Malkin's career TOI is that close to Crosby's because Crosby missed significant portions of his career with injuries. During those periods Malkin moved up the depth chart, became the 1C and got the associated minutes. The law of averages being what it is, their TOI seems seems pretty close. Crosby has averaged more TOI in 9 of the last 10 seasons. The only season he didn't was an injury plagued year in which he only suited up or 22 games.

Both of those players are well regarded around the league I'd assume, and both will fetch the initial return the Wings get for them, but another return in a few years when they're traded. In the mean time their value will be A) that they both played big parts on a dominant, Cup winning team, and B) are better than any depth player currently playing for the Wings (most of whom will be leaving in the next two years). Finally, neither of those two guys played much with Stamkos, Kucherov, or Point. So their numbers aren't inflated by playing with a star the way Artemi Panarin blew up Ryan Strome's numbers this past season in NY. Killorn and Johnson's most frequent linemates were each other and Cirelli and that line actually played MORE in the playoffs than the elite guys did, suggesting maybe they're better than people are giving them credit for.

Of course they're not the norm. That's why they're elite. Because there aren't many of them. Elite players of any variety are "not the norm". That's what elite means. I'm having a hard time understanding how a player who isn't amongst the very best at this position (Schenn for example) can be "elite". Are there "elite" 4th line wingers too? "Elite" third pair defensemen? "Elite" backup goalies? I presume all or most of the people on this board played hockey at some point in their lives. So they all remember the lineup that was usually written on a whiteboard somewhere in the lockroom, and which in in NHL is submitted to the league, timekeepers, and media before the game right? That's an official lineup card for the game telling everyone who's starting in what positions. That lineup has 4 forward lines on it. Whoever is centering the second line, is the 2nd line center. This isn't some big riddle to solve. Occasionally the 2nd line center is so good that they'd be a 1st line center on another team, but that's irrelevant. They play 2C. I doubt you guys would rush to call Veleno a 4th line center just because there are a handful of teams in the league for which that's where he'd play.

I think it's too early to start a 2021 Draft Thread just yet, but in any event sign me up for this guy. Kent Johnson, center at Michigan, is playing at a point per game pace as a freshman. Oh, and he's absolutely sick. Reminds me a bit of Jason Spezza.

Zadina and Hronek both recalled from their loans to the Czech league today. Gotta figure the NHL and Player's Association will be announcing a start to the season before long.

So according to your definition there are a handful of 1st line centers who are actually 2nd line centers despite playing on the first line AND there are 2nd line centers who are actually 1st line centers despite having other, better, centers playing on the 1st line and being higher on the depth chart them they are? Makes sense. Or (and hear me out) maybe if you center the 2nd line you're a 2nd line center?

All of those players are elite, and all of them play 2C. So yeah, they seem like the EXACT definition of "elite 2C" to me. Apparently your definition of "elite 2C" is a guy who plays less, and scores less, than Jordan Staal. Lol.

Malkin is an elite 2C. Draisaitl is an elite 2C. Tavares is an elite 2C. If you think Veleno has that ceiling that's on you (he doesn't). Or maybe you shouldn't throw words like "elite" around and then expect people not to take you at face value when you make outrageous claims.

Can't imagine where I got the idea that you think Veleno will be a dominant 2C?

Okay, and if Yzerman has Tampa by the balls (as you've repeatedly suggested) then Yzerman can ask for the moon and Brisebois will have to pay up no?

You'd rather not take both or you wouldn't take both? And if you would, what would it take? There must be SOME price that you'd take both players for. And if Yzerman has Tampa over a barrel, as you've repeatedly said, then Brisebois should basically have to pay it right? So why wouldn't you take both?

Okay. But then in the Timashov thread you said " I would not take Johnson AND Killorn for just a 1st round pick. I'd want a 1st, plus another pick and / or prospect for Johnson, and at least a 2nd for Killorn" which suggests you WOULD take both provided the Wings got a 1st, 2nd, and prospect. It's confusing because that's exact what you said you wouldn't take for both on 12/9/20 (as quoted above). So you can see how someone might be confused right? So, what would it take for you to trade for both Killorn and Johnson?

This is misleading. Elsewhere you've said you wouldn't trade for Johnson and Killorn for a 1st, 2nd, and top prospect. Everyone agrees that a 1st isn't enough, but you've made it clear that you wouldn't do it for more than a 1st. So maybe it's on you to explain what you consider "well compensated"? So let's nail this down. What would it take for you to pull the trigger on a trade for Johnson AND Killorn?

^^^^^^^^ What's hard to understand is that you said that you wouldn't do Johnson AND Killorn for a 1st, 2nd, and prospect on 12/9/20 in this thread (as quoted above). Back then (5 days ago) you said your wanted Johnson OR Killorn for a 1st AND 2nd. But over in the Timashov thread you said you would take Johnson AND Killorn for a 1st, 2nd/prospect, and a 2nd; which is the same thing that you said you wouldn't do in the post above.

You've made that much clear. But again, here you're saying you wouldn't do it for a 2021 1st, 2022 2nd, and prospect. But elsewhere you said you'd do it for something similar to that. When everyone else said "yes" to the deal above you said "no" and then multiple days later said you'd do basically the exact same deal in another thread. So what changed?

I'm confused, in the Timashov thread you said you would want a 1st and 2nd/prospect for Johnson AND a 2nd for Killorn. But here you're saying you WOULDN'T do a 1st, 2nd, and top prospect for both. Seems like you're contradicting yourself.

I absolutely do it for a late first and second. Worst case scenario you draft a billion times in the first two rounds. Best case scenario you package the 30th (for example) pick with the 5th or 6th overall that the Wings may end up with, and move up a few spots to nab the player you really want at 2nd or 3rd overall.

Ashes to ashes.

Hard yes. Bert-Larkin-Mantha Ryan-Johnson-Killorn Fabbri-Nemestnikov-Zadina Helm-Glen-Filppula Neilsen/Svech

I'd do some version of this trade in a heartbeat. Though I'd prefer a top prospect and a 2022 1st personally. At the end of this season Helm, Glendening, Bertuzzi, Hronek, Filppula, Ryan, Gagner, Erne, Staal, Nemeth, Biega, Merrell, Weiss, and Bernier come off the books. That's roughly 46 million dollars in cap space accoring to CapFriendly. Bert, Hronek, and maybe Glendening and Bernier will get new contracts with marginal raises, totally no more than 10 million over and above their collective current cap hits. Killorn and Johnson are another 9 million. You've still got about 27 million dollars to round out the roster, and most of that will come from guys like Ras, Seider, Zadina, Veleno etc. who are all on ELC's. PLUS Killorn and (to a lesser extent) Johnson are actually good, so you can maybe flip them toward the ends of their deals. Of course you do this if you're getting another 1st and a top prospect. It's a steal. You'd have all the cap flexibility you'd need. You could do everything described above AND sign a top free agent or two. Plus the following year Dekeyser, Nielsen, Namestnikov, and Stecher are UFAs. The first two are unlikely to be brought back and the last two, if brought back, will only get marginal raises.

Veleno isn’t even close to the best player in his own age group. Many players his age, and younger, already outperform him. They’ve all got just as many years to develop as he does. He’s already being out produced by guys drafted a year or two after him. Is he suddenly going to get WAY better and they’re all going to stand still? Doubtful. Unless he’s some outlier, which he’s given no indication he is, he’s going to be a winger or a 3C because he doesn’t score enough. And it’s not like I’m just pulling this out of nowhere. Almost every single scouting report on Veleno questioned his ability to produce offensively at the next level. It’s hardly controversial, except to you apparently.