kipwinger

I'm confused, in the Timashov thread you said you would want a 1st and 2nd/prospect for Johnson AND a 2nd for Killorn. But here you're saying you WOULDN'T do a 1st, 2nd, and top prospect for both. Seems like you're contradicting yourself.

I absolutely do it for a late first and second. Worst case scenario you draft a billion times in the first two rounds. Best case scenario you package the 30th (for example) pick with the 5th or 6th overall that the Wings may end up with, and move up a few spots to nab the player you really want at 2nd or 3rd overall.

Ashes to ashes.

Hard yes. Bert-Larkin-Mantha Ryan-Johnson-Killorn Fabbri-Nemestnikov-Zadina Helm-Glen-Filppula Neilsen/Svech

I'd do some version of this trade in a heartbeat. Though I'd prefer a top prospect and a 2022 1st personally. At the end of this season Helm, Glendening, Bertuzzi, Hronek, Filppula, Ryan, Gagner, Erne, Staal, Nemeth, Biega, Merrell, Weiss, and Bernier come off the books. That's roughly 46 million dollars in cap space accoring to CapFriendly. Bert, Hronek, and maybe Glendening and Bernier will get new contracts with marginal raises, totally no more than 10 million over and above their collective current cap hits. Killorn and Johnson are another 9 million. You've still got about 27 million dollars to round out the roster, and most of that will come from guys like Ras, Seider, Zadina, Veleno etc. who are all on ELC's. PLUS Killorn and (to a lesser extent) Johnson are actually good, so you can maybe flip them toward the ends of their deals. Of course you do this if you're getting another 1st and a top prospect. It's a steal. You'd have all the cap flexibility you'd need. You could do everything described above AND sign a top free agent or two. Plus the following year Dekeyser, Nielsen, Namestnikov, and Stecher are UFAs. The first two are unlikely to be brought back and the last two, if brought back, will only get marginal raises.

Veleno isn’t even close to the best player in his own age group. Many players his age, and younger, already outperform him. They’ve all got just as many years to develop as he does. He’s already being out produced by guys drafted a year or two after him. Is he suddenly going to get WAY better and they’re all going to stand still? Doubtful. Unless he’s some outlier, which he’s given no indication he is, he’s going to be a winger or a 3C because he doesn’t score enough. And it’s not like I’m just pulling this out of nowhere. Almost every single scouting report on Veleno questioned his ability to produce offensively at the next level. It’s hardly controversial, except to you apparently.

I never "gave up on him". I literally JUST compared him to Jordan Staal. You seem to think being realistic about a player's upside is somehow pejorative. Also I wasn't trying to "gotcha" with Jurco, I was pointing out that being in the NHL sooner doesn't make one "better" and he's an excellent example. Another example might be Marco Rossi, who will almost certainly be in the NHL sooner than Lucas Raymond, and you've made it very clear you think Raymond is better right? Edit: Also, I agree that Veleno will probably improve. But so will every other 20 year old player. It's not like he's the only one developing. Sure he'll get better, and so will everyone else, and he'll still be middle of the lineup as a center (or higher as a winger).

You're right. He was draft eligible in 2015. I got that wrong. Nevertheless, his subsequent development (and production) has demonstrated he's a top offensive prospect. He was the 2019 AHL rookie of the year (as voted by coaches), and the 2020 AHL goal scoring leader. So it's not like I'm the only one who thinks he's a top prospect. I don't really understand what "graduating to the NHL" has to do with anything. Your boy Tomas Jurco played fewer games in the AHL than Gustav Nyquist or Tomas Tatar before getting called up, but he wasn't a better player. Something tells me Veleno might have a tough time cracking Tampa's lineup as well.

I'd be happy if Veleno turned into a 2C as well. That's what's being debated here. I don't think he'll be capable of "holding down a 2C spot" because he doesn't produce enough offensively. How many 2C in the league can't score? I think, at best, you're looking at a Jordan Staal type, mid-40 point 3C with good defense. And that's IF he sticks at center. Move him to the wing and he might be able to play in the top six as "the other guy" to a Zadina or Mantha or Raymond because he's very physically talented. He just doesn't have the offensive skill. Which is why he's getting outproduced by Moritz Seider for the 2nd straight year. I'm just not sure how many times the guy has to have mediocre point production at lower levels before everyone realizes he's not going to be more than a mid-level guy in the NHL. Edit: Also, in his draft plus 2 year (as an NHL rookie) Dylan Larkin did indeed play wing and scored 23 goals and 40 some points. For comparison's sake, in Veleno's draft plus 2 year he was getting overwhelmed by AHL competition and scoring roughly as often has 4th liner Chase Pearson, who was playing about 4 fewer minutes per night.

This is false. Veleno scored 79 points in 64 games in his draft year. ABB scored 89 points in 65 games in what would have been his draft year had he been drafted. At the same age ABB scored more. In their draft plus one years Veleno scored more. The only time both players were in a similar league at the same age was their draft year and their draft plus one years in the QMJHL, and in those two years ABB produced more once and Veleno produced more once.

Agree. Veleno is more productive on the wing than at center. A team starved for offense thought (correctly) he'd produce more on the wing than he was at center. Doesn't mean he's not "good enough" at center, but it definitely means he's not productive enough. Otherwise they would have left him where he was. Regardless of whether he's 20 or 25, I don't believe Joe Veleno will ever lead ANY league in goals because...wait for it...he's not very productive offensively.

Again, ABB lead the AHL in goals as a top center. He absolutely dominated a top men’s league. The men’s league that most closely resembles the NHL in style and speed and physicality. He would be an extremely good get. Veleno has never performed that well offensively at any level, including junior levels. If ABB joined the Wings he would immediately leapfrog Rasmussen and Veleno and be our top center prospect by about a thousand miles. Veleno can’t even stick at center in the SHL, ABB dominated the AHL at that position.

ABB led the AHL in goals last season from the center position. When Joe Veleno leads ANY league, in ANY major major statistical category, I’ll consider revising my assertion that ABB has the higher offensive upside.

Yeah, I typically don't think those are that big of a deal. Players that realize they aren't wanted usually find teams they're willing to go play for. I think Tampa pretty easily moves two of them, but Brisbois is going to REALLY have to sweeten the deals. Edit: I'd take their two s***tiest contracts, Johnson and Gourde, but I'd want Barre Boulet and their 2022 1st.

I think they move two of Johnson, Killorn, Palat, or Gourde. I don't see them moving Point, though if they did I'd obviously be interested.

I'd like to see Yzerman target Alex Barre Boulet when he inevitably takes Johnson or Palat from Tampa to help them out with their cap issues. He's a top six center in the making, absolutely torching the AHL, and blocked in Tampa's lineup by Point and Cirelli. Really good offensive center prospect who could probably be had.

Agreed on Seider. I'd move Joey V to the Wing and let him be the digger for Zadina the way that Bertuzzi is the digger for Mantha. I think he'd compliment skill pretty well in that role, but I don't see a guy who can consistently make skilled offensive plays. He'll contribute plenty as "the other guy" but it's pretty clear to me that he's not an offensive driver after failing to score much in his draft year, failing to score much in his AHL season to the point where he got demoted down the lineup, and now failing to score much in the SHL to the point where he had to get moved to the wing. Or just trade him, as you've indicated, since we're probably good on the wing after drafting about 400 of them with high picks the last handful of years (Mantha, Bertuzzi, Svech, Zadina, Berggren, Mastrosimone, and Raymond).

Seider is a monster. I've already made the Seth Jones comparison, but another guy that comes to mind is Miro Heiskanen. Here's a dude who doesn't get the love that the elite scoring d-men get, but he's a minute muncher, has good enough offense to produce against top opposition, and is a possession beast. Any notion that Seider's offense is lacking should have been dispelled last season when produced in the AHL as an 18 year old, and is producing now in the SHL as a 19 year old. His offense has been better, in both the AHL and SHL, than Veleno's, so that's something right?

So reports from the twitterverse, including Bultman, indicate that Veleno has been playing on the wing the last few games in the SHL. Bummer.

I would have thought it was clear from the totality of my posts. I think Veleno will be a 3rd line, two-way center, who doesn't produce offense consistently because of his limited puck skills. Why do I think that? Because the NHL is a harder league to score in than the SHL or AHL and Veleno didn't produce very well in those leagues either. In fact, he's producing less well than other, less developed, Red Wings prospects including Berggren, Seider, and Raymond. Edit: You realize that Mantha's .67 ppg in the NHL is EXACTLY the same as his AHL production (.67) right? It's not like he got better. He's the same scorer. So (using the logic from your example) we should expect Veleno, who was an inconsistent third line center in the AHL to pull a Mantha and...be the exact same thing in the NHL? Cool, glad we agree.

Since they were drafted, Beggren has played 87 games at all levels. 58 in the SHL against men and 29 against juniors. He has also dealt with several severe injuries. Veleno has played 135 games, 65 in "men's leagues" (SHL and AHL) , and 70 against juniors. He has dealt with no serious injuries. If anything Veleno is MORE developed than Berggren. Yet he scores less. Berggren's ppg against men is .51. Veleno's is .45 in the SHL and .43 in the AHL.

Berggren, who is also 20 and playing in a men’s league, is torching the SHL. Keep in mind he was picked after Veleno and has missed the better part of two years with injuries. That’s the difference between a guy who has natural offensive ability and one who doesn’t. In every way Veleno is further along in his development and yet he can’t out pace Berggren because he simply doesn’t have the puck skills to produce anything other than middling offensive numbers. He’s currently getting outpaced by Seider (A 19 year old defenseman) as well. And it’s only going to get harder to score when he gets to the NHL. I think we are looking at 40 point, two-way, 3rd line center here.

Joe Veleno's offense just continues to disappoint. Not a surprise that guy feel to 30th overall. Looks like his two-way game is rounding out, which is a good development but man does he lack offensive creativity. You'd think he'd be an assist machine considering he's basically a guaranteed zone entry with his speed and athleticism, but so many plays just die on his stick. I'll be shocked if he ever scores 50 points in the NHL.

It's not really that hard to figure out. No realignment (even a temporary one) is going to pass without a majority of the owners supporting it. And owners of non-traditional markets would be stupid to agree to a division in which they all play against each other. They'd lose tons of revenue. If you're Tampa, would you rather have Detroit and Chicago come to town or Carolina and Dallas? Back when they proposed the realignment a few years ago everybody was all excited about the possibility of an Original Six Division. It was the dumbest thing ever. Why would any owner agree to a realignment plan in which all the most lucrative organizations, with the most established fan bases, all played each other and not you?

Timashov sucks anyway, who cares?