kipwinger

I think it's too early to start a 2021 Draft Thread just yet, but in any event sign me up for this guy. Kent Johnson, center at Michigan, is playing at a point per game pace as a freshman. Oh, and he's absolutely sick. Reminds me a bit of Jason Spezza.

Zadina and Hronek both recalled from their loans to the Czech league today. Gotta figure the NHL and Player's Association will be announcing a start to the season before long.

So according to your definition there are a handful of 1st line centers who are actually 2nd line centers despite playing on the first line AND there are 2nd line centers who are actually 1st line centers despite having other, better, centers playing on the 1st line and being higher on the depth chart them they are? Makes sense. Or (and hear me out) maybe if you center the 2nd line you're a 2nd line center?

All of those players are elite, and all of them play 2C. So yeah, they seem like the EXACT definition of "elite 2C" to me. Apparently your definition of "elite 2C" is a guy who plays less, and scores less, than Jordan Staal. Lol.

Malkin is an elite 2C. Draisaitl is an elite 2C. Tavares is an elite 2C. If you think Veleno has that ceiling that's on you (he doesn't). Or maybe you shouldn't throw words like "elite" around and then expect people not to take you at face value when you make outrageous claims.

Can't imagine where I got the idea that you think Veleno will be a dominant 2C?

Okay, and if Yzerman has Tampa by the balls (as you've repeatedly suggested) then Yzerman can ask for the moon and Brisebois will have to pay up no?

You'd rather not take both or you wouldn't take both? And if you would, what would it take? There must be SOME price that you'd take both players for. And if Yzerman has Tampa over a barrel, as you've repeatedly said, then Brisebois should basically have to pay it right? So why wouldn't you take both?

Okay. But then in the Timashov thread you said " I would not take Johnson AND Killorn for just a 1st round pick. I'd want a 1st, plus another pick and / or prospect for Johnson, and at least a 2nd for Killorn" which suggests you WOULD take both provided the Wings got a 1st, 2nd, and prospect. It's confusing because that's exact what you said you wouldn't take for both on 12/9/20 (as quoted above). So you can see how someone might be confused right? So, what would it take for you to trade for both Killorn and Johnson?

This is misleading. Elsewhere you've said you wouldn't trade for Johnson and Killorn for a 1st, 2nd, and top prospect. Everyone agrees that a 1st isn't enough, but you've made it clear that you wouldn't do it for more than a 1st. So maybe it's on you to explain what you consider "well compensated"? So let's nail this down. What would it take for you to pull the trigger on a trade for Johnson AND Killorn?

^^^^^^^^ What's hard to understand is that you said that you wouldn't do Johnson AND Killorn for a 1st, 2nd, and prospect on 12/9/20 in this thread (as quoted above). Back then (5 days ago) you said your wanted Johnson OR Killorn for a 1st AND 2nd. But over in the Timashov thread you said you would take Johnson AND Killorn for a 1st, 2nd/prospect, and a 2nd; which is the same thing that you said you wouldn't do in the post above.

You've made that much clear. But again, here you're saying you wouldn't do it for a 2021 1st, 2022 2nd, and prospect. But elsewhere you said you'd do it for something similar to that. When everyone else said "yes" to the deal above you said "no" and then multiple days later said you'd do basically the exact same deal in another thread. So what changed?

I'm confused, in the Timashov thread you said you would want a 1st and 2nd/prospect for Johnson AND a 2nd for Killorn. But here you're saying you WOULDN'T do a 1st, 2nd, and top prospect for both. Seems like you're contradicting yourself.

I absolutely do it for a late first and second. Worst case scenario you draft a billion times in the first two rounds. Best case scenario you package the 30th (for example) pick with the 5th or 6th overall that the Wings may end up with, and move up a few spots to nab the player you really want at 2nd or 3rd overall.

Ashes to ashes.

Hard yes. Bert-Larkin-Mantha Ryan-Johnson-Killorn Fabbri-Nemestnikov-Zadina Helm-Glen-Filppula Neilsen/Svech

I'd do some version of this trade in a heartbeat. Though I'd prefer a top prospect and a 2022 1st personally. At the end of this season Helm, Glendening, Bertuzzi, Hronek, Filppula, Ryan, Gagner, Erne, Staal, Nemeth, Biega, Merrell, Weiss, and Bernier come off the books. That's roughly 46 million dollars in cap space accoring to CapFriendly. Bert, Hronek, and maybe Glendening and Bernier will get new contracts with marginal raises, totally no more than 10 million over and above their collective current cap hits. Killorn and Johnson are another 9 million. You've still got about 27 million dollars to round out the roster, and most of that will come from guys like Ras, Seider, Zadina, Veleno etc. who are all on ELC's. PLUS Killorn and (to a lesser extent) Johnson are actually good, so you can maybe flip them toward the ends of their deals. Of course you do this if you're getting another 1st and a top prospect. It's a steal. You'd have all the cap flexibility you'd need. You could do everything described above AND sign a top free agent or two. Plus the following year Dekeyser, Nielsen, Namestnikov, and Stecher are UFAs. The first two are unlikely to be brought back and the last two, if brought back, will only get marginal raises.

Veleno isn’t even close to the best player in his own age group. Many players his age, and younger, already outperform him. They’ve all got just as many years to develop as he does. He’s already being out produced by guys drafted a year or two after him. Is he suddenly going to get WAY better and they’re all going to stand still? Doubtful. Unless he’s some outlier, which he’s given no indication he is, he’s going to be a winger or a 3C because he doesn’t score enough. And it’s not like I’m just pulling this out of nowhere. Almost every single scouting report on Veleno questioned his ability to produce offensively at the next level. It’s hardly controversial, except to you apparently.

I never "gave up on him". I literally JUST compared him to Jordan Staal. You seem to think being realistic about a player's upside is somehow pejorative. Also I wasn't trying to "gotcha" with Jurco, I was pointing out that being in the NHL sooner doesn't make one "better" and he's an excellent example. Another example might be Marco Rossi, who will almost certainly be in the NHL sooner than Lucas Raymond, and you've made it very clear you think Raymond is better right? Edit: Also, I agree that Veleno will probably improve. But so will every other 20 year old player. It's not like he's the only one developing. Sure he'll get better, and so will everyone else, and he'll still be middle of the lineup as a center (or higher as a winger).

You're right. He was draft eligible in 2015. I got that wrong. Nevertheless, his subsequent development (and production) has demonstrated he's a top offensive prospect. He was the 2019 AHL rookie of the year (as voted by coaches), and the 2020 AHL goal scoring leader. So it's not like I'm the only one who thinks he's a top prospect. I don't really understand what "graduating to the NHL" has to do with anything. Your boy Tomas Jurco played fewer games in the AHL than Gustav Nyquist or Tomas Tatar before getting called up, but he wasn't a better player. Something tells me Veleno might have a tough time cracking Tampa's lineup as well.

I'd be happy if Veleno turned into a 2C as well. That's what's being debated here. I don't think he'll be capable of "holding down a 2C spot" because he doesn't produce enough offensively. How many 2C in the league can't score? I think, at best, you're looking at a Jordan Staal type, mid-40 point 3C with good defense. And that's IF he sticks at center. Move him to the wing and he might be able to play in the top six as "the other guy" to a Zadina or Mantha or Raymond because he's very physically talented. He just doesn't have the offensive skill. Which is why he's getting outproduced by Moritz Seider for the 2nd straight year. I'm just not sure how many times the guy has to have mediocre point production at lower levels before everyone realizes he's not going to be more than a mid-level guy in the NHL. Edit: Also, in his draft plus 2 year (as an NHL rookie) Dylan Larkin did indeed play wing and scored 23 goals and 40 some points. For comparison's sake, in Veleno's draft plus 2 year he was getting overwhelmed by AHL competition and scoring roughly as often has 4th liner Chase Pearson, who was playing about 4 fewer minutes per night.

This is false. Veleno scored 79 points in 64 games in his draft year. ABB scored 89 points in 65 games in what would have been his draft year had he been drafted. At the same age ABB scored more. In their draft plus one years Veleno scored more. The only time both players were in a similar league at the same age was their draft year and their draft plus one years in the QMJHL, and in those two years ABB produced more once and Veleno produced more once.

Agree. Veleno is more productive on the wing than at center. A team starved for offense thought (correctly) he'd produce more on the wing than he was at center. Doesn't mean he's not "good enough" at center, but it definitely means he's not productive enough. Otherwise they would have left him where he was. Regardless of whether he's 20 or 25, I don't believe Joe Veleno will ever lead ANY league in goals because...wait for it...he's not very productive offensively.

Again, ABB lead the AHL in goals as a top center. He absolutely dominated a top men’s league. The men’s league that most closely resembles the NHL in style and speed and physicality. He would be an extremely good get. Veleno has never performed that well offensively at any level, including junior levels. If ABB joined the Wings he would immediately leapfrog Rasmussen and Veleno and be our top center prospect by about a thousand miles. Veleno can’t even stick at center in the SHL, ABB dominated the AHL at that position.

ABB led the AHL in goals last season from the center position. When Joe Veleno leads ANY league, in ANY major major statistical category, I’ll consider revising my assertion that ABB has the higher offensive upside.