kipwinger

I want a center that plays like a center. I don't want a "center" who doesn't even play that position consistently and is kinda weak and kinda slow. I genuinely don't think Pefetti will play C at the NHL level without significantly more development. We're talking years. The kid looks like a tadpole and the creative part of his game, while significant, tends to get negated without decent skating. Look at Casey Mitelstadt (a guy I was VERY high on). He was supposedly an cerebral, offensive, dynamo too. But he was under developed and couldn't dipsy doodle around the ice in the NHL the way he was accustomed to. So now he's back in the AHL indefinitely trying to learn how to play like a professional center. And he was much bigger and faster than Perfetti. I think Perfetti is a talented player and might be a top five talent on offensive skill alone. But I think he falls on draft day. Maybe a team with a very long developmental curve picks him in the 8-12 range, but there are significant concerns about picking that kid for me.

JVR is still a very useful player. Sooooo, I'd trade for him and Philly's 23rd overall. Then flip JVR to a contender and retain about 2.5 million per year, for a couple of 2nds or a decent prospect.

Can we get Josh Anderson to be the other winger on that line?

This is an interesting dynamic that I totally agree will define the remainder of Mantha's time in Detroit. There's basically no way in hell that he should be getting paid more than Larkin right? Larkin gets paid 6.1 million AAV and outperforms Mantha in every single way possible. But you also get the feeling that Mantha isn't going to be okay with anything below 6 million AAV. Normally you'd bridge this gap with a short term deal to let Mantha prove he's the 35 goal, 70+ point winger he thinks he is (but hasn't been so far) but the team probably balks at that because they'd lose control of him at the end of it. Ideally they'd rather lock him up longer term. This is by no means an easy contract negotiation. I'm guessing he'll get about 3 years, 6 million AAV, but that's a super risky contract.

I can understand why you'd think this, but I don't think that the evidence (or logic) concur with your assessment. Here's why I say the BLM line is a beast: Premise 1: The BLM line is Detroit's only good line. Premise 2: As a result they get the highest quality of competition. Premise 3: They cave in that competition to the extent that their possession metrics are the 10th best in the league, as a line. https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/detroit-red-wings/line-combinations/ Conclusion 1: The BLM line faces the best every night, and controls the play against the best every night in most instances. Conclusion 2: Throw the BLM line out against other team's top lines, cancel those other team's top lines out (or actively beat them) and let your 2nd line full of offensive guys (as per my original proposal) run up the scoreboard.

I genuinely don't think we're as far away as people think, IMO it's just a matter of getting people in the right places to succeed. We need a top of the lineup offensively capable center in this draft (any of Byfield, Stutzle, Rossi, or (maybe) Perfetti will do). We need that this year because this year is deep in forwards and next year isn't. Would hate to get a higher pick next year (which is loaded with defensemen) after taking Drysdale this year. Then take a LD next year. Preferably an offensive one. With my 2nd rounders in both years I'm looking at goal scorers. Jan Mysak fits that bill this season, so someone like that on the wing. The Bert-Larkin-Mantha line is a nightmare matchup for other teams top lines. They proved all season that they can play against tough matchups and succeed. Your "2nd" line is your bread and butter scoring line. Byfield/Stutzle/Rossi/Perfetti with Zadina and somebody to dig out pucks (I'm thinking Veleno or Rasmussen) would go in to take the offensive zone draws and put points on the board. After that it's all depth. One of Ras or Veleno centers the 3rd line with any combination of wingers, we've got a bunch of good depth options in Fabbri, Mastrosimone, Berggren, or anybody we draft in the 2nd rounds the next two years. 4th line? Who cares. Pearson-Glendening-Smith. Done. On defense you draft a Werenski to Seider's Seth Jones next year. You put one of McIsaac or Johansson with Hronek on the 2nd pair. Again, 3rd pair? Who cares. The other of McIsaac/Johansson and Cholowski, or Tuomisto, or whomever. The point is that we're probably two drafts away from being legitimately competitive. Maybe sooner if Yzerman swings a trade or two (to fill that hole in the left defense).

These are from The Athletic's Pronman, and I think say a lot about his evaluation system. When he ranked Detroit's prospect pool (released earlier this week) these guys were pretty far down the list. But when he scouted the European U20 camps later in the week look who impressed: Albert Johansson, D, Detroit Johansson was the top defenseman at Sweden’s camp. In the 2001 age group he’s historically been buried behind numerous first-round-pick caliber talents for Sweden on defense. But with all those players not at the camp, he had an opportunity to shine. He’s a very smart two-way player who can use his brain and feet to help his team’s transition game. “His game has grown a lot since playing all last season against men. He is stronger and more confident with and without the puck. He knows he can match his opponents,” Monten said. Elmer Soderblom, RW, Detroit Soderblom, drafted by the Red Wings in the sixth round in 2019, is trending up. He received praise from the coaching staff as one of Sweden’s top players at camp, along with Holmstrom and Johansson among the drafted prospects. Soderblom created chances for himself and others, and used his massive 6-foot-6 frame to get to the hard areas of the ice. “He’s a big guy but now he plays big. Gaining strength and quickness has helped his game become more efficient. He’s strong on pucks and takes them to the net hard,” Monten said.

Hate to break it to everyone but Yzerman's "plans" are to do very minor things, just like last year, and bottom out again.

I actually think that Bergevin is a sneaky good GM. He's especially good at trades.

I think it's irrelevant now anyway. St. Louis just traded Jake Allen to Montreal. They'll have no trouble signing Pietrangelo now.

I don't know a ton about St. Louis' system so I'm taking a flier here, but for the most part you only have one defenseman on the PK and St. Louis has Paryako and Scandella filling those roles. They're both excellent PKers. I'd be looking at Dunn for his offense though. Seems like we've got really good defenders in Seider and McIsaac and Hronek has all around ability, but we don't really have a guy who can put up big points from the back end. Dunn probably can do that, and I think it's encouraging that he's playing regular minutes on a Stanley Cup contender at 23. Probably not a complete liability if that's the case. To me the only real question is whether Detroit is convinced that Cholowski can figure things out defensively or not. He clearly has the same offensive upside, but if the front office thinks he can't figure it out on the back end then maybe they move on from him as their left side offensive guy.

All very valid points, but I think a big part of his playing down lineup has more to do with how stacked St. Louis is on defense. He'd have to dislodge one of Pietrangelo, Paryako, Scandella, or Faulk in order to gain more playing time. He's sorta lost in the mix with a bunch of other guys on the 3rd pair, but I don't think that's as much about his talent as it is about his age and how coaches tend to value veterans over youth in the playoffs. I'm not saying the kid is going to be the second coming of Brian Rafalski, but he seems like a candidate for a bigger role in Detroit.

I think with Dunn you'd be paying for his offense, and upside. He can run a powerplay, though obviously not as well as Alex Pietrangelo, he's got very good possession metrics, and at 23 has lots of room to grow. But make no mistake, you're not getting a workhorse. You're getting a high(ish) end left, shooting, offensive defenseman. I just think our left defense is pretty weak after McIsaac so I wouldn't mind an acquisition like that.

Totally agree, having him, Hronek, and Seider in your top four would be a massive advantage for our transition going forward. You'd have a righty (Hronek) and a lefty (Dunn) running your power play units as well. If he's actually on the block I'd be trying really hard to land him.

Definitely check out Vince Dunn as well. He's really good, and he's only 23. Very good puck moving d-man. Would love him as a future partner with Seider. I don't see St. Louis trading him, except as a last resort though. I think you'd have to take some bad contracts back (maybe Jake Allen) and I think you'd be paying a premium given Dunn's age and talent.

I'll just leave this here, forgive the sh*tty music in the second one. Not mine.

He and AA both have the same agent FWIW. I don't really think it's them as much as him being an extremely aggressive negotiator with his RFAs.

He makes 1.8 million a year and had a breakout season two years ago. Then entered this season with a badly injured shoulder that severely limited his effectiveness. He has since had the shoulder operated on and should be ready to prove himself again this coming season. I watch a lot of CBJ hockey, given that I split my time between Ohio and DC and I can tell you that he was an absolutely wrecking crew in the playoffs two years ago when CBJ beat Tampa. He ate their defensemen alive. He's like Bertuzzi, except WAY BIGGER, FASTER, AND STRONGER. I wouldn't hold my breath considering Perfetti didn't even play center consistently in the OHL. But dream big I guess.

There is TONS to like about Anderson, and I agree that with his injury last year, we'd be buying low. He's big, physical, fast, and has super soft hands. Look at the goals he's scored in his career. He ain't some Zach Kassian or Tom Wilson. The guy's got skill. Anderson-Rossi-Zadina second line would be badass. Given that Columbus has shedded draft picks the last couple years I think he could be had for a mid-2nd rounder and depending on the status of his shoulder MAYBE a middling prospect. If I'm Yzerman I'm all over this.

Top of the list is Josh Anderson. That guy is a BEAST and wouldn't cost a ton to acquire. I like Vince Dunn quite a lot too.

For one, that level is production is insanely rare. Crosby did it ONCE. To do it six or seven years in a row would be nearly impossible. Secondly, as McDavid develops a more refined two-way game I'd expect his point totals to go down slightly, not up. Same thing people always said about Datsyuk, he could have scored another 30 points a season if he wasn't so committed to being good defensively.

See my edit above. Those are the types of questions I'd be asking myself if I were a GM and I was trying to figure out a players value while taking points into account. Another issue with the 1 million per 10 points scale is that it doesn't take into account RFA vs. UFA differences in pay vs. production. In general it may be that over the life of their careers a player will earn roughly 1 million per ten points, on average. But they're certainly not going to make that while they're an RFA (if they're any good), and they're certainly not going to be worth that toward the end of their careers. I obviously haven't done the math, but I presume that while players are under team control they make less than that, and then it averages out after they sign their UFA contracts (where they'll basically all get overpaid). For example, Connor McDavid ain't dropping 125 points a season for the next 7 years. In short, it's just too simplistic a benchmark to have any real use in determining value as far as I'm concerned. If I were a GM I'd probably do what Stan Bowman basically does. Squeeze value out of RFA contracts and then trade the good players before they become UFA's to keep your cupboard stocked so that you've always got more quality RFA's coming.

I don't agree with that. Madison Bowey just scored at a 27 point pace last season and I think everybody would be (rightly) pissed off if that landed him a 2.5-3 million dollar contract. And it's HARDER for a defenseman to score like that. 30 points is nothing in today's NHL. Edit: Also, there's WAY too many variables at play to distill valuation down to dollars per points. Did a guy score 30 goals or have 30 secondary assists? Did he score 30 off the fourth line or the second? Were those 30 powerplay points or 5on5 points? Does the player do anything else well, or just chip in 30 points but cost you more with his bad defensive play (Athanasiou)?

He wrote an article about it. Basically he didn't have anything to update since last season because there hasn't been a draft yet. I get it. As I understand it, he's going to update these after the draft. I generally find Pronman's evaluations to be pretty spot on, but I tend to disagree with his weighting system. If he says a guy is a good skater, he's a good skater. If he says a guy has bad decision making, he generally does. Pronman watches a TON of hockey in person, and talks to a lot of scouts. But he tends to weight his criteria in such a way that flashy guys always have more value than quietly effective guys. This is something that I've observed before as well. Back in the 2000s Datsyuk was undoubtably a flashier, more skilled, player than Zetterberg. However for most of their careers (until Z's back blew up) Datsyuk wasn't more effective. Zetterberg always took on the tougher matchups (think Crosby and Toews) and (for most of their careers) scored at a similar rate. But Datsyuk "popped", as Pronman would say, so he's remembered as being a MUCH better player. It's mostly a trick of the eyes.

If Fabbri only scores around 30 points then it will be an absolute failure of a season for him. Throughout his (limited) NHL career he's scored at a .48 ppg rate. 30 points would mean he only played about 60 games. Meaning YET AGAIN he was hurt and missed significant amounts of time. Either that or he played a full season and scored WAY below his production averages. Either case would correctly be viewed as a failure by just about any objective observer.