kipwinger

The comparable players you're talking about probably aren't RFAs without arbitration rights, haven't blown their knees out twice, and played only 90ish games over three seasons. Excuse us for thinking maybe those things mean he should make a little less than average. And speaking for arbitration rights, that's one big difference between Mantha/Bertuzzi and Fabbri. They actually have MORE leverage than he did. So again, if you think that the agents for Mantha/Bert aren't going to press for the absolute max, given what they just saw Fabbri get, you're pretty naive.

That wasn't my intent. My intent was to show that Fabbri, like Helm, is pretty mediocre. If 24 year old Darren Helm had blown his knee out twice, was an RFA, and had only played 96 games over three year, and then got a raise from 800K to 2.9 million I think more than a few eyebrows would have been raised. As it was he got a raise from 800K to 2.1 million and a whole lot of people didn't like it. And that was before his UFA deal, which is only marginally more than Fabbri will make now. Yet when I suggest that Fabbri's contract was too much given all these issues, people act like I'm crazy. I could be wrong, but I don't see Fabbri continuing to improve that much. And definitely not into the 70 pts range. I think its more likely that he plateaus or drops off. And that's if he doesn't get injured again. Which is why I favored a one year "prove it" contract. If I'm wrong, and he comes out and drops 50+ pts next year then give him more. No harm in that. But I've seen LOTS of players have a big year and then fall off a cliff. No reason to think Fabbri's any different than any of them.

Because Jim Rutherford is a dumbf*ck and has, throughout his career, made idiotic trades just for the sake of "shaking things up".

I agree, Fabbri is a Helm level player. Accept that Helm coulld actually play defense in addition to his Fabbri-esque production at the same age. I'd also point out that Helm wasn't coming off two blown out knees. However, I'd still reiterate that spending roughly 3.5% of your cap on a Helm-level player is an overpayment given how totally replaceable they are. Again, I'm not saying there is some sort of long term implication of this deal for the team. I'm just saying that Fabbri isn't that good and given his injury history and RFA status Yzerman should have brought him in on a one year, 1.5 million deal. If Fabbri stays healthy and produces again (no guarantee) then give him a longer term deal for an AAV that closer to the upper end of what a 3rd liner makes. Giving him two years at 2.9 million seems really generous given how many question marks there are about Fabbri and the fact that he has no leverage whatsoever. I'm not sure how comparing Fabbri to Helm makes the case that he's worth this new contract. Pretty much EVERYONE on LGW hates Helm and thinks he's totally overpaid and replaceable.

That's 1 million per point on the UFA market. Fabbri is an RFA with a significant injury history. He shouldn't be getting paid at the high end of the pay scale for a 3rd line winger given these two things. Edit: Given this model we should be paying Madison Bowey 2.7 million on his next contract because his season pace was 27 pts. over 82 games. I don't think anyone would be happy with that for Bowey on an RFA contract. So this pay scale is probably not a good model for RFAs. Again, 2008 was prior at the bad signings of Helm, Abby, Nielsen, or Ericsson. Which is what I was referencing. The whole point was that if the definition of "bad contract" is one that hurts the team, then the signings of the guys above aren't "bad contracts" because they never "hurt" the Wings in any meaningful way. One the other hand, if a "bad contract" is paying a guy more than he's worth then all of those contracts are bad. And so is Fabbri's. Not world-ending bad, but not good value either.

Hossa was gone before any of the "bad contracts" I mentioned. And the Wings didn't offer Quincey a contract at the conclusion of his second stint. He did not leave because we couldn't afford him. He left because we didn't want him.

Helm was not an RFA when he signed his current 3.8 million dollar deal. Back when he was an effective 3rd liner he was making less than that. He signed his last RFA deal for 2.1 million when he was roughly the same age as Fabbri. Before that he made 800k on his previous RFA deal. He signed the 2.1 million deal in 2012 after seasons of 26 and 32 points. Robby Fabbri's career high to this point is 36 points. He's horrible defensively and he's got significant injury history. He is not noticeably more valuable than 2012 Darren Helm.

I don't "hate" or "like" players. I don't know them so having personal feelings about them is childish. I don't think he's anything more than a decent third line winger. Totally replaceable. He also has a significant injury history. And he's an RFA. because of all those things I think that 2.9 million was too much. I don't think the contract will cripple the team, though I do expect it will factor into other negotiations this year. But that doesn't mean it's not an overpayment.

Nope. Mantha got his extension in July, 2018 after his 24 goals, 48 point season. Something that Robby Fabbri has never done. Also, Anthony Mantha hasn't blown his knee out twice. If his bridge deal was worth 3.3 million, then Fabbri's should be significantly less. Which is exactly what I've been saying. Thanks for playing. I don't think he overpays more or less than anyone else. I'm simply saying that the Fabbri contract IS an overpayment. And I think that any GM, whether Yzerman or Holland or whomever, should never overpay for mediocre talent. If you're cool with him overpaying mediocre guys then good on you.

That's very succinct, but ignores the fact that their salary will be based on the outcome of a negotiation. And as with all negotiations there will be a range of potential salaries that they could fall in. Don't be surprised if they come in at the very top of that range now. Just like Fabbri did. And not because he's some stud, but because if a mediocre player is worth 3 million then a top line player is worth considerably more.

So if you're Anthony Mantha's agent, and Robby Fabbri just got 2.9 million dollars a year based on his "pace", you're telling me you're not asking for 8 million to start? Same with Bert. If I'm his agent I'm definitely starting at 6.5 or 7. Sure both of them will come down a bit, but in an ideal world you'd want Mantha at around 6 million and Bert around 5 million. And if you WOULDN'T ask for that money you'd be a horrible agent because the GM just proved his willingness to overspend my almost a million and a half dollars per year. And I DO think Nylander and Marner are relevant. Dubas hamstrung his team because he didn't use RFA leverage when he could have. And both of those players had a better track record of success than any of our guys do. And because he overpaid them he lost a 1st round pick in the Marleau trade to free up additional cap space. Something he may have to do again this year. So it's not like the pitfalls of overpaying RFAs are hard to imagine.

How? Name a single guy we wanted to sign, but couldn't, because we didn't have cap space? Name a single pick or prospect we traded away (a la Patrick Marleau) to open up cap space? It didn't happen.

Since I'm the only one "complaining" I'll respond to this. Nobody was saying the contract is a risk to the team. I'm simply implying it's an overpayment. Both can be true. If the threshold for "bad contract" is that it materially hurts the team then nobody should be complaining about Ericsson, Abby, Helm, or Nielsen either. None of those contracts have hurt the club, but ALL of them were over paid. Although now that I think about it, this contact sorta DOES hurt the team. Because when you sign mediocre guys to a premium while you've still got other RFAs (Mantha, Bertuzzi) to sign, you've just sent a message to their agents that they should demand A LOT of money. If you're giving out MASSIVE raises to Robby Fabbri for a partial season's worth of decent work then why would Mantha or Bertuzzi expect anything less than a massive raise and overpayment? You gonna play hardball with Mantha and Bert but not Fabbri? That doesn't send a good message to young talent. Plus, Toronto has recently shown that overpaying young talent (Marner and Nylander), as opposed to using the leverage of restricted free agency, does have significant drawbacks when it comes to cap flexibility down the road.

Oh, well in that case it's a really good contract. I stand corrected. Lemme try again... Hey guys you see that new Fabbri contract? Big win for Yzerman here. I know it probably seems like Fabbri's injury history, combined with the fact that he's never scored 40 pts in a season, means he should have earned less on a one year "show me" contract, but as my grandmother always says, "you didn't overpay as long as you've got more money to throw away".

I mean, I could be wrong. Clearly Yzerman would never throw large bad contracts at mediocre talent. Of course, excluding Matt Carle, and Valtteri Filppula (the first time), and Ryan Callahan, and Jason Garrison, and Andrej Sustr, and Braydon Coburn. Obviously the guy who signed those contracts understands the true value of a hockey player.

Wow, a 350% raise after one, half way decent, season. If that's the going rate then Mantha will be making about $15 million AAV and Bertuzzi about $9 million AAV before the summer is over. Atta boy Stevie.

I don't know if the Wings have in the past or not, but I'd highly doubt they do now. Too many Americans. The Europeans, and even moreso the Canadians, seem to be a lot more progressive and open about their sexuality. I read somewhere the a staggering amount of Canadian men, something crazy like 8 out of 10, admit to having had homosexual experiences. My mind was blown. Americans just aren't that open or progressive about our sexuality so I doubt the Wings have any now that all the leaders in the locker room are Michigan guys.

Totally agree. Top of the list are Mantha and Veleno. Idiots. If not for their physical tools both of these maroons would be working in a factory in some s***hole suburb of Montreal right now.

My Offseason Plan: TRADES: To CBJ: Zadina, Fabbri, To Detroit: Elvis Merzlikins, Josh Anderson To: Montreal: Mantha To Detroit: Domi, Romanov Free Agents: Taylor Hall: 7 years x 9 million AAV (Heavy Bonuses) Evgenii Dadonov: 5 years x 6 million Draft: Marco Rossi Lineup: Anderson-Larkin-Hall Bert-Rossi-Dadonov Domi-Rasmussen-Svech Helm-Glendening-Nielsen Abby-Veleno Dekeyser-Hronek Romanov-Seider Nemeth-Bowey Cholo Merzlikins Bernier

I don't like Robby Fabbri. There, I said it. I'm not mad that Yzerman acquired him or anything, obviously he's a pretty good player. But he's a huge puss, isn't fast, and doesn't shoot much. I would have looked to move him at the deadline when his value was high.

Hey, what up CatBoy? Glad to see some new blood coming into LGW. This place has been a dump for quite a while. I also agree with a bunch of your points, almost all of them in fact. Great minds think alike! Anyway, welcome!

Next year's draft class is heavy on defensemen. I'm sure Ottawa knows this. If Stutzle is really as good as every seems to think there's no way they pass on him for the RHD that everyone seems to agree is a tier below Stutzle. And if Stutzle ISN'T a tier above Drysdale, then he's not worth worrying about when we'll have our choice of Rossi or Perfetti. Yep, I'd rather have a goal scoring winger than a playmaking winger all things being equal. I would have thought that was clear by my original post. As for the rest of this drivel, if Ottawa is set on coming away from this draft with a forward and a defensemen I presume they'd rather take the best player available to them at 3, which is Stutzle, and then Sanderson (who is generally considered in the same tier as Drysdale). That way they'd be getting best overall player available to them and still fill their needs. Now, if you could stop replying to my posts that would be great. I ignored you a long time ago and I would generally be thrilled if I could just pretend you don't exist. I don't engage you for a reason.

Yep, I'm sure Raymond will turn out to be as good as those guys. Give me the guy everyone says is the best pure goal scorer in the draft class (Holtz) over the "if we're really really really really really really lucky he might be as good as Patrick Kane or Mitch Marner one day" guy (Raymond). As for your second point, you're literally saying the same thing I am. You're just too belligerent to know it. If Stutzle is generally as talented as the other guys you mentioned, enough so that other teams are willing to pass on him for them, then you don't really need to make any extra effort to incentivize them to do so.

I don't understand this line of thinking. If Stutzle is so "meh" that a team would rather have Drysdale then why would we want him any more than anyone else available to us? If a team would rather NOT have Tim Stutzle, as opposed to Rossi, Raymond, or Perfetti then he's probably not much (or at all) better than them. And therefore he's probably not worth any additional effort. This is the same thing that happened with Zadina. Everyone assumed he was way better than other guys we could have taken because he had been more highly ranked all year. But he fell for a reason. We were all jumping for joy because we thought we got a top three talent. The reality is, he was never a top three talent and we would have been MUCH better off with Quinn Hughes, someone that NOBODY thought was a top three talent.

I think Raymond's gonna fall on draft day. I think Lafreniere and Holtz are the first two wingers off the board. I really don't understand the allure of the playmaking winger. If you're drafting a winger, get a guy who can find the back of the net. I don't know if Lafreniere will be the kind of elite two-way guy you're discussing here or not. In recent memory there are only really two wingers, Hossa and Mark Stone, that have that kind of impact both ways. I expect Lafreniere to basically be a Jonathan Huberdeau or Mikko Ratanen. A big, physical, power forward with tons of offensive skill. But I wouldn't count on him being a stud two way player, penalty killer, or (obviously) face off guy. If I were the Rangers I'd trade back with Ottawa at 3 and take a center. Their center depth is as bad or worse than ours and they've already got Panarin, Kakko, Kravtsov, Kreider, Gauthier, and Buchnevich on the wings.