kipwinger

So this is the 3rd year where he's basically f***ed his season by fighting for no good reason? Awesome. There's dumb, and then there's Brendan Smith dumb, and then there's this guy.

I don't think it's a guarantee that he should get traded. After the season he's had, his bargaining power is going to be pretty low, and he's an RFA to boot. If you can lock up a guy with his skillset to a reasonable long term deal, and get 20+ goals a season from him, then he's got a TON of value to your team. I also don't think he would have fetched a 1st last year at the deadline either, considering he didn't get to 30 without a pretty significant late season surge. But generally I agree, his value was higher a year ago.

My point was not that it's impossible, but that's it's probably a long shot. AA has never scored 30 goals AND 60 points. Plus, he's just so bad at every other facet of the game that he's not going to be an attractive option for some contender's top six. So I don't see them giving up that price. If I were Yzerman my two options for AA would be 1) hockey trade in the offseason for someone like DeAngelo or Dumba, or 2) sign him long term at like 4.5-5 million a year and pencil him onto our 3rd line permanently. Either has value.

I definitely don't think he's getting us anything like that at this year's deadline. Maybe if he finishes strong this year, and is looking solid next year he might be in the 1st+ range. But not given his current production. Dzingel got a good return because he looked like he was trending up. He scored 18, 23, and then 22 (before February's deadline). So it definitely seemed like he was going in the right direction. AA is trending down right now. If he doesn't go on a tear the rest of the season and top 20 (at least) then it's going to look like that 30 goal season was a fluke and bye bye trade value.

I agree that there's not a need to move AA until his trade value rebounds, but even at his peak he's not fetching a 1st+. So might wanna temper your expectations a bit.

You mean he didn't forget how to play hockey after signing with the Kings?

The point I'm actually making is not the scouts are wrong and Lafreniere could be a bust. I mean, technically anyone COULD be a bust but I think he'll probably be really good. I'm suggesting that they're probably overstating the difference between him and the other top guys (who will all also be really good). In the end I think that difference will end up being quite small. As a result whomever gets the top pick should at least consider A) trading it and fleecing another team for a bunch of other assets, or B) drafting for position. I've never suggested that the consensus top guys are likely to be bad, just that other top of the draft guys are likely to be better than they're made out to be. And the HYPE surrounding the top guys can be weaponized in your favor if you're confident in another player.

Good talk man. Thanks for playing.

https://www.thefourthperiod.com/jan-2020/wild-ready-to-sell-retool Any interest in a trade for Dumba? He's pretty awesome.

I'm not that concerned about his height, mostly because he'll probably grow another few inches. Most draftees do. But if he doesn't, and fills out to round 200 lbs, then there are literally dozens of examples of guys who were small and stout and successful. Off the top of my head, Brayden Point, Brad Marchand, Cam Atkinson, Marty. St. Louis, Mats Zuccarello, Daniel Briere, Tyler Johnson, Tory Krug, Theo Fleury, and our beloved Ted Lindsey all come to mind.

I 100% agree. But I also have to be prepared for the likely scenario that we end up drafting 4th and Lafreniere, Byfield, and Stutzle are off the board. And in that scenario I'd be very pleased with Rossi.

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck. I honestly like the idea of Veleno playing wing the more I think about it. Let him be another Tyler Bertuzzi, and chase down pucks for Filip Zadina on the 2nd line with whomever we draft this year. He (and Bertuzzi) are the perfect "piano pullers" because they can get to pucks and win battles, but they're not completely devoid of offensive talent either.

I'm not in a position to look it up right now but weren't Datyuk and Zetterberg like 28-30 when we won in 2008?

Rossi and Lafreniere have the same usage. Rust and Matthews/Kucherov don't. So it's pretty easy to see which is an aberration and which isn't. Good catch on my math. Point still remains, it only makes a difference if Rossi plays 10 more games than Lafreniere, which he hasn't, and even then it would only be a difference of three goals (I'd be curious to know the points per game difference between the two leagues). Again, I don't care about pro scouts that much because, as I've already stated, they do obviously stupid things at the draft all. the. time. And presumably they don't care about me because I'm just a guy on the internet. You know who does care about my thoughts a lot though? The guys that responded to 25 of my posts this morning.

Also apparently he's a mean little bastard. He's been suspended already for dirty play, and nearly suspended a few more times. It doens't pay to mess Rossi it seems. He's not the biggest guy on earth, but you're not going to shove him around either. And as I feel obliged to keep saying, he scores more than Lafreniere. So yeah, he's dope.

I don't have the average fan's antipathy toward those guys, or the rivalry years in general. I remember reading Brendan Shanahan's article in the Player's Tribute where he fawned all over Joe Sakic and I sort of realized that while the rivalry was fun and all there was no reason to be delusional and act like guys who were really good actually weren't somehow. The beauty of the rivalry to me was that as insanely good as Sakic and Forsberg were, Yzerman and Fedorov were better. I actually feel about Larkin and our (hopefully) soon to be 2C the way I feel about Seider and Hronek. One guy scores all the points, one guy kicks all the ass. I like that setup. If you had Larkin and Veleno/Rasmussen eating all the hard defensive minutes and Stutzle/Rossi/Byfield torching subpar defenders I'd say you're in a pretty good situation.

Depends on the value of the 1st. Send him to a Calgary or someone who's likely to get bounced early and you're talking about a really valuable pick. I'd MUCH rather have AA and (say) the 19 or 20th overall pick than Fabbri and the 40th. But that's just me.

Most of the scouting reports I've seen suggest that Rossi is pretty stout, and strong one his skates, and very aggressive. He's already 180 lbs, despite being 5'9 so it's pretty fair to assume he'll be 200-210 lbs in his 20s. Most tend to agree that he projects out as a center because of this. He's also, as I've stated a few times, the most dynamic offensive player in the draft (and that includes Lafreniere) so I think he's as likely to have "game breaking" upside as anyone. With all that said, I don't think we need him to be a "1C". It's great if he is, mind you, but we've already got a 1C who can score 60+ points will matching up against the top centers in the game and logging heavy minutes. What we really need is a top six center who can score a ton of points precisely because he WON'T have to log Larkin type minutes. Let him be the Sakic to Larkin's Forsberg.

First Bold: Rossi is already a more talented offensive player than Lafreniere, and they're in the same league. So I don't know why he'd suddenly be worse than Raymond, who's quite a step below Lafreniere, regardless of league. Second Bold: That wasn't what I was suggesting at all. I'm a pretty astute sports better, and I would 100% percent bet that Lafreniere will go 1st overall. What I was suggesting was that it's not clear to me that he SHOULD go first, or rather, that he'll have the best NHL career. Much the same way that I was 100 percent sure Jack Hughes would go 1st overall, but that another player (such as Kakko) would have a better NHL career and would therefore have been a better pick at 1st.

Why take Raymond there when Rossi is outscoring Lafreniere? He's a more talented offensive player than Raymond AND he plays center. As far as drafting 1st I have consistently avoiding discussing it because A) Lafreniere almost certainly gets drafted there, and B) we almost certainly don't get that pick, so it's a pretty boring topic to discuss.

Agreed, no need to give him away. But like I said, if someone's offering a first, and you get to keep AA then it's hard to argue against it. Another big X factor at the deadline is Madison Bowey, who's quietly putting up some pretty solid numbers this year. Again, hard to imagine he won't be in play, though I think he's the kind of guy that would blossom in a Laviolette (or Gallant) type system.

I vacillate a lot because Rossi is outscoring Lafreniere right now in the CHL AND projects as a center, so obviously I love that. Stutzle is also a high offensive upside center. Byfield probably is less skilled than those guys (though it's hard to say by how much considering his age) but with his physical tools he's got the ability to be dominant in a way they can't be. At this point I'm genuinely fine with any of them and I don't see us taking a winger or defenseman so I'm pretty happy no matter whether we draft 2, 3, or 4.

Given that AA has pretty low trade value, and Robby Fabbri has played pretty well, if I'm Yzerman I'm taking calls on Fabbri at the deadline as well. Long term you need to keep one of the two, and Fabbri is definitely the better player, but if someone's offering a 1st (hypothetically) for Fabbri and we can lock up AA at a lower price (because of the down year) you have to consider it.

A little bit to add to this thought... Stutzle played center his entire life, projects as a center in the future, and is only playing on the wing now because he's a 17 year old playing in an adult league as a rookie. It's a little like Dylan Larkin playing wing his 1st NHL season. Far as I've read pretty much everyone assumes he'll switch back to center long term a la Larkin. Cole Perfetti is the only guy who's played center, who's likely to go around the time Detroit drafts, and who doesn't project down the middle long term.