kipwinger

I know. It was a cheap dig. But you're holding Pronman to a standard you don't even hold NHL executives to. If he can't even be wrong (which remains to be seen on Seider) once or twice per first round, then he can never be right. And that also ignores the fact that Steve Yzerman, as GM, has been VERY wrong in his 1st round selections in the past. In other words, if saying Moritz Seider is a 29th caliber pick when he's really a 6th caliber pick makes Pronman's evaluations suspect, then what does taking Brett Connolly at 6th overall make Yzerman's?

C'mon, Sandler hasn't been funny since when? Big Daddy?

Say the draft plays out like.. Hughes, Kakko, Byram, Cozens, Zegras (which was entirely plausible), then chances are that we aren't even talking about Seider at 6th. My point, which I made badly, is that it's not as though Yzerman had some keen insight into Seider. There's a good chance he wasn't "Yzerman's guy", he was just the best of what was left. If reports are to be believed (take them with a grain of salt if you want) then he was interested in two other guys more. One or two different selections by other teams, which are entirely out of Yzerman's control, and Seider very likely DOES go in the 15-20 range (anticipated by most). His selection at 6th says more about how the board shook out, and about how little Yzerman and co. thought about Zegras and Cozens as it does about how much they really liked Seider.

You've got that part wrong. The guy personally watches thousands of prospects each year and augments his observations with others' observations (including scouts and managers) in order to minimize bias. Very different than, say, a Craig Button (who also was a scout and manager himself) who tends to defer to video. I know your tribe isn't too high on media types these days, but it's not like they got some dumbf*ck to opine on these guys.

I'm not even sure this part is true though. Quite a number of reports from the accursed media had Dach and Turcotte at the top of Detroit's board. If Zegras or Cozens goes top 5, as was widely expected, it's not really that hard to see how Seider might not have even whiffed the top 15. Which is all to say that it's hard to say that Yzerman A) wanted Seider all along at 6th, or B) thought Seider was the 6th best player in the draft. It only really means that 5 other players they may have liked more were gone AND nobody was willing to trade up for anybody who was left.

A total hack?

I know! The nerve of this egghead, traveling around the globe watching thousands of hockey players over and over and over again and then not picking the exact order of the 1st round with 100 percent accuracy. What a d*ck. Genuine question, didn't Seider get burned for goals in both the first and second games on bad pinches? I obviously didn't watch but definitely thought I read that somewhere.

Wait, are you saying that it's premature to tell how good Seider will be without a healthy dose of personal bias and that he was a reach at 6th? Because you wouldn't believe the sh*t I caught for making both of those points recently.

And there's nothing wrong with that as long as you're aware (which I'm sure you are) that A) our eyes can often deceive us, and B) other people's opinions are often more informed than our own.

A significant portion of our fanbase thought Zadina would play on the NHL club out of camp last year. That was way off base. And it became clear the minute we all realized he wasn't even an especially good AHLer yet. That's my only point. If you didn't feel that way then great. You pointing out that fact that you didn't is a demonstration of the other point I'm about to make. Which is... As far as the bolded, the only value in player projection (for a fan) is to test (and demonstrate) that you know something about the sport you're discussing. Because obviously none of us have jobs in professional hockey player evaluation. As such, overvaluing a prospect is just as useless as undervaluing one. In either case you've demonstrated that you don't know as much about that player as you thought. The only real value, again for a fan, is getting it close to right (and having intelligent reasons why you think so). Otherwise, why talk about it at all. Just sit back and wait to see how they turn out. Therefore, it's usually good to get as much quality information as you can before concluding how good a player is going to be. I know it's anathema to say so around here, but if you wanted to learn that Pearson "might" be a bottom 6 center or that Soderblom can skate well for a big man you could always just read Corey Pronman's farm system analysis of the Red Wings. He made both of those exact points. Again, lots around here act like you're an ******* if you read his stuff but he apparently gets things right from time to time.

I'll follow the team as best as I can during camp, and watch all the pre-season games. Those tend to be more illuminating than Traverse City because all the guys who obviously suck will be sent home before the preseason games start. Then obviously the AHL will be a huge step up from that.

No. Discuss anything you want. It just might be wise to hold off concluding how good a player is going to be until you've seen him play at a comparable level to the one you're projecting him in. Otherwise we may end up with egg on our collective faces the way we did with Zadina.

Maybe, maybe not. It's true of the game against Chicago. Not true against Toronto (who dressed few of their top prospects). This tourney is also 4 games long. So while his performance is encouraging, IMO it isn't enough for me to conclude much about him as a player. It's obviously better than he play good than bad, but nothing about it makes him "special". Because if being a standout made him "special", then by that rationale Chase Pearson would also be "special". And he's clearly not. I'm not blaming Seider for playing the competition he's given, I just think he needs to play consistently better players before we have any idea how good he's going to be.

Nobody said you couldn't. Also, it seems perfectly reasonable to discussion the quality of competition the kid has faced up to this point in his career. It also seems reasonable to wonder what effect, if any, that will have on him once he's consistently facing NHL caliber talent (whether that be in training camp, the pre-season, the AHL, or the NHL). It seems equally relevant to ask whether a performance at a prospects tournament is the best evaluative tool when A) more than half of each team is full of free agent invitees (like Gregor McLeod) or late round picks (like Elmer Soderblom), or B) the competition is so weak that projected bottom of the roster guys like Chase Pearson are performing at insanely unsustainable rates. That's your 2nd oblique reference to Nazism today. You're on fire.

No, I'm telling you that Mortiz Seiders and Tim Stutzles are the exception in the DEL. While the Canadian Junior Hockey leagues regularly produce very high end draft eligible players. For that matter so do the Swedish and Finnish leagues. As a result it's easier to tell how good players coming out of those leagues are going to be. It's a little more of a crap shoot with the DEL, so I'm going to need to see more of Seider (like in the AHL) before I'm ready to conclude that he's going to be a 1D some day.

Let me illustrate my point. If you're Cam York, and every single day at practice you have to defend against Jack Hughes, and Cole Caufield, and Trevor Zegras, and Matthew Boldy, and Alex Turcotte then you're consistently playing against not just NHL caliber talent, but top of the 1st round NHL talent. If you're a top defender in the QMJHL you're facing a Veleno or Lafreniere or Comtois almost every game. The DEL has nothing comparable to that. I realize, as you've pointed out, that he played at the WC and looked pretty good. I agree. But that's only 5 games. When he performs like that over 75 games in the AHL I'll be a bigger believer in his "1D" upside. Until then I'll stick with what I've always thought about him, he's most likely to be a good NHL defender in the mold of a Colton Paryako.

Neither do you against pro-level competition, that's my point. Everybody thought Zadina was going to be an "elite" scorer prior to last season too, and now everybody seems to be a bit more measured. The AHL is a really good league. If Seider excels there then I'll be ready to talk about "top pair upside". But (through no fault of his own) he's never played at that level. He's never even played consistently against NHL caliber talent (past or future). No offense to the DEL, but it's not full of future NHLers, or past NHLers. So it's hard for me to figure how good he'll be until I've seen him against better players.

Here's another question, why not ignore me from the beginning? Again, I never addressed you, you addressed me to begin with. So if having this conversation is such an ordeal I'd suggest your use the ignore function. We'd probably both be better off for it.

No s***. I was starting a conversation with him because I like talking to him and generally respect his point of view. You've made it clear you don't like talking to me and don't respect my point of view, so I'm confused why you insist on talking to me? Do you even know why at this point?

Or else you'll jump into the conversation, and then pretend like I'm forcing you to listen to me?

Who do you mean by "us"? I don't ever talk to you about anything. You're the one that insinuated yourself into the discussion I was having with other people. So I'm not sure why you're acting so oppressed. Edit: Also, of course I'm going to talk about my thoughts on hockey. Who else should I be speaking for other than myself?

When have I ever addressed you about anything on this board? I had one converation with CRL, someone I talk to regularly, about not putting too much stock into this Tourney. He actually agreed with me BTW. Then I had another with Ely, who also agreed with me, and then you jumped in. So yeah, I'd "leave you be". Like I always do. Why? Because I don't care what you think about hockey.

Go ahead, nobody is stopping you. Matter of fact, I didn't address you or 91 at all. You both responded to discussions I was having with other people. So I'm not sure where you're getting this "Kip is busting our balls" attitude from?

Ok. Your assessment isn't what was being discussed here. 91 criticized me for thinking out center depth was more important than our defensemen. I was simply stating that having two decent centers in your entire organization, one of whom was still playing Canadian Junior Hockey a few months ago is a pretty shallow talent pool. Conversely our defense is deeper, but also more proven. Hronek just had a hell of a rookie season, and murdered the World Championships. Cholowski was good in the NHL, and very good in the AHL. McIsaac was the best defenseman in the Q (comparable to Veleno at center). Lindstrom played big minutes on a championship team in one of Europe's toughest leagues. And Kaski was the best defenseman in another of Europe's toughest leagues. At what point did my saying "Don't put too much stock in the Traverse City Prospects Tournament" become "I hate Seider" in your mind?

I already said I didn't. To reiterate, I was more interested in the media source providing the games than the games themselves. If you were streaming, for instance, I wanted to know where you were getting the stream from. Got it? I've already made clear that I'm not that interested in watching Mortiz Seider, Joe Veleno, and Filip Zadina beat up on 5th round picks and undrafted camp invitees.