kipwinger

That entirely depends on who's doing the ranking. I've seen Zegras as high as top five, and Dach as low as 12-15 and vice versa. Generally though Zegras has trended up while Dach has trended down, and Chicago places a premium on skill and not so much size. Total speculation that they'll pick him, but it's logical speculation at least. At any rate I think all of Zegras, Cozens, and Turcotte go before Dach, so I think he goes somewhere in the 7-10 range. I really like him and think he's going to be a very good player. He's almost identical to Gabe Vilardi in his draft year. Similar production, similar strengths and weaknesses, and similar upside. In a vacuum I would really like to have him in Detroit, I just think that if things play out like I discussed above you've got two better options in Byram or Turcotte. Byram because we need the defense, and Turcotte because he's like Larkin but with more offense (Brayden Point) and I think the organization has been skewing heavily toward speed as a team identity. If we take Byram we're in a pretty good spot defensively, but we're a little weak offensively. If we take Turcotte we're way better offensively (in addition to him we can move AA back to wing). Plus imagine having to face Larkin, Turcotte, Veleno, and Glendening down the middle. That's a meat grinder. Trouble is we'd have to go shopping in FA for defense. The good news on that front is that Trouba is an FA next year and he fits our group age wise. So I think I'm leaning toward Turcotte and crossing my fingers Trouba wants to play at home. Bert-Larkin-Mantha Ras-Turcotte-Zadina Berggren-Veleno-AA Svech-Glendening-Abby Neilsen Cholo-Trouba McIsaac-Hronek DK-Lindstrom

I don't see Podkolzin going 3rd. Chicago is pretty set on the wing but they're fairly weak down the middle in terms of their top end prospects. Have to think they'd want a center. Colorado is another team that's organizationally weak down the middle and stronger on defense and the wings. If anybody is going to take Podkolzin before Detroit drafts it will likely be Los Angeles. Three of their top four prospects (according to Pronman) are centers so they're good on that. They're not great on defense, so taking Byram at 5th would be a fine move, but you have to think that if the consensus 3rd overall falls to 5th they'd scoop him up. So here's how I see it playing out: NJ: Hughes NYR: Kakko CHI: Zegras or Cozens COL: Cozens or Zegras LA: Podkolzin DET: Byram or Turcotte

I'd sooner try to reach out and grab the moon than attempt to decipher the thought process of idiots. Edit: Also, the bigfoot thing isn't really a conspiracy. If bigfoot exists, as the dummies contend, it would just be a biological fact. Now, if the truth of bigfoot existence were being covered up by the Bilderberg Group or something it would be a conspiracy. In which case I assume all these dummies would "want" is proof of the existence of the aforementioned bigfoot.

Here's why you can be sure there's no NHL conspiracy. Because Gary Bettman still has a job. If the owners, who tell Gary what to do, wanted him to conspire to make Edmonton a championship caliber team through draft picks then he's failed miserably. If they wanted him to stop Detroit from being successful then he's failed miserably. If they wanted him to make New Jersey relevant to the NHL then he's failed miserably. And billionaires generally don't let failures run their enterprises for too long. There is no conspiracy, it's just something stupid people think when they don't get exactly what they want.

Why would NHL owners rig a lottery against themselves? Or did you think Gary Bettman was like the NHL dictator? Also, it's not "closed door". Every NHL team has a representative in the room during the lottery. Maybe look into these things?

Ummm, not to nitpick but the very definition of "lottery" precludes one from being a "screwjob".

Whelp, one of Zegras, Byram, or Cozens will be available at 6. I'm totally fine with it.

And it's that type of deep insight that keep you relevant around here. Thanks for the hard hitting analysis bud.

Letang was hurt during the Pens cup run and didn't play. And it was only AFTER the Caps won that people started saying Carlson was an "elite 1D". Prior to their win the consensus around here was that he was a step below all the other guys you mentioned. It obviously is better to have a stud defender than not, but after watching what Vegas did last year without a single top tier defender I wonder if systems are changing enough that they're not absolutely required anymore.

The CHL doesn't post ice-time stats so I couldn't find those. He did score a bit on the PP, but not sure if it was net front or on the point. I know he manned the second unit until Bouchard got back from his NHL stint so there was time to pick up a few points. But his role was significantly smaller than it would have been on most other teams either way. Here's their even strength scoring though: Boqvist: 37 pts Bouchard: 28 pts Regula: 30 pts. In the NHL not everybody gets to run a powerplay. Likely, Hronek and Cholo (or Byram if we draft him) will get those spots in Detroit. So it's never a bad thing to have a guy on the D-core who can score regularly at even strength.

Probably needs a couple years but he looks like the real deal. Petruzelli looks solid too. And we took two goalies in last year's draft that were both pretty lauded. Hence why signing Jimmy for another year was so important. I expect Larsson starts for Grand Rapids next year, gets a little coaching and maybe a late season call up, and then competes for the Detroit job in two.

I agree. I think I said elsewhere that the trend seems to be toward having good pairs that you deploy in particular situations and not having a 1D who plays a billion minutes a season.

The article that came out the other day compared him to Rick Nash. I can see that a little bit stylistically.

Not necessarily. Outside of Hronek, whom I'm not ruling out for the top pair, Bowen Byram is a legit 1D prospect. I'm completely fine taking him with our top pick this year and looking for more help up front in FA. Byram, Hronek, Cholo, McIsaac, Lindstrom is a good start on a defense. A few other thoughts on our defense. Hronek just put up a 40 point pace as a rookie. He'll break 50 next year if all goes well. And he's not a bad defensive player either. Playing all those top pair minutes down the stretch were really good for his development, and for Blashill to gain confidence that Hronek can be trusted. I expect BIG things from him in the next couple years. Also, Alec Regula is probably going to be really good for Detroit in a couple years. He's flown under the radar because McIsaac has been so good, and Regula's numbers aren't great. But when you dig a little deeper you see that he was behind Adam Boqvist and Evan Bouchard pretty much all season long in the depth chart at London so he didn't get all those sweet PP minutes to pad his stats. Almost all his offense came at even strength (which is actually a good thing for a depth defenseman). Prior to Bouchard returning from his NHL stint Regula WAS getting PP time and produced. The kid is a thoroughbred, skates like the wind, and his offense is underrated. I'm really looking forward to seeing what he can do in the AHL because I think we might have a Mattias Ekholm type guy on our hands, and I'm a huge fan of his.

You're not the only one. And I don't even think we need to "strike gold". We need our top pick this year to turn into a first line/first pair talent, and we need Veleno, Zadina, Ras, Berggren, McIsaac, Cholo, and Lindstrom to become various degrees of good. Add a couple free agents in a year or two and we're fine.

I don't think it's a bad theory or anything, I just think it's short sighted. It's like the electoral college, people are only against it when their party loses. If Detroit wins the lottery tomorrow nobody will be talking about this anymore. That's all. As far as Edmonton, who cares? They drafted in the top five a billion times in a row and they're still terrible. Buffalo too. So clearly tanking year after year isn't the advantage some people think it is.

Only on LGW could people ***** about Helm, Abby, Glendening, and Nielsen and openly pine for Calle Jarnkrok. Lol. That dude sucks. He's never scored more than 16 goals in the NHL on a playoff caliber team. In retrospect losing Patrick Eaves in the same trade was a MUCH bigger loss, yet somehow people think Jarnkrok is some devastating f*ck up by Holland. You're all a bunch of petulant children.

I know, that's the exact point I'm making. The trouble with the lottery, of course, is that it's only run one and not "over a large enough sample size" so that randomness becomes absolutely paramount in the process. There is not randomness in an algorithm. We're on the same page here bro. I think people only like the idea because it would have worked out for the Red Wings this year. If we were in Ottawa's position nobody would be clamoring for the "Gold Plan".

Not true. They'll win 9.5% of the number of time if you run them reaches a large enough sample. For instance, I just ran Tankathon 3 times and the Wings won the 1st pick 1 time and then I stopped (33.3%). I suspect that if I did it about 2,000 more times the Wings would win about 9.5% of the time.

I'd add, it wasn't just growth from the big four (although that was huge), but also that the veterans could play fewer and fewer minutes and that we'd be better for it. For years the idea was that a bad veteran is still better than an inexperienced young kid. I think this season illustrated that the quality of our farm system has improved enough to make that no longer true. Sure Abby or Helm may be a better option in the top 9 than Jurco or Frk. But they're probably not a better option than Zadina, Ras, or Veleno going forward. That's a big change for this organization. My expectation is that the Helms, Abbys, Nielsens, and Glendenings will continue to see their roles diminished, and the Ehns and De La Roses will disappear.

I'm basically on team Byram OR Zegras if we don't pick in the top two. Largely for the same reasons you are. I'm also totally fine with Kronwall and Vanek returning on one year deals. With or without the top picks I'm very optimistic about the team's future though. Obviously the play of the big four (Larkin, Mantha, Bert, AA) is promising, but so too is the fact that guys who are potentially even more talented are still on the way (Zadina, Ras, Veleno, Berggren). I'm also THRILLED by Hronek. Dude just put up a 40 points pace as a rookie. That could very easily translate to 50-60 pts in a year or two, and he's no slouch defensively. Cholo is also very promising and could be a 40-50 pt. guy. That's two higher end offensive defensemen in your top four, and a lot of promise in McIsaac and Lindstrom too. Add 4 of the top 60 picks this year, and UFAs in the next two years, and I think we're ready and able to make a big push.

Well this certainly doesn't hurt their chances of Landing Panarin considering he's been coached by Quenneville before. I think they've got the talent for sure to be Cup competitive in a year or two. Really good farm system too. Smart move by Quenneville. Where else was he going to coach that much young talent? Please, please, please let him win a Cup with Florida before Babs wins one with Toronto.

Interesting. Best coach in the world joins team full of budding stars. What could go wrong?

Haha, love getting your goat pal. I'll enjoy reading your 5000 word replay.

I'm not sure if he's "best" or not. Not even sure what that means considering teams need different things and so the best fit for one may not be the best for another. Except in rare circumstances it's usually worth considering whether the "best" prospect will be the "best" player. Not a single person said Leon Draisaitl was in the same category as Aaron Ekblad in 2014, but would you trade one for the other now? Same with Haiskenen, Patrick, and Hischier in 2017. If you're unwilling to even consider the possibility that the player you think is "best" really isn't, then you might actually miss out on the real "best" player. Jack Hughes has been annointed the #1 draft pick for about 3 years now. Not many people have been honest enough in their evaluations to even ask, "what if he's not". All I'm saying is that these days it doesn't seem so cut and dry.