kipwinger

You beat the drum on this BPA thing all the time and it seems as if you believe there's a clear separation between each and every player in the draft. There isn't. Cozens, or instance, is not "better" than Dach or vice versa. When players are bunched together in terms of talent, and you can be equally sure of getting a quality winger, center, defenseman, you'd be dumb NOT to pick players that fit your organizational needs. None of which is to say you should chase players, or go off the board, just to fill a need. But it's pretty clear that players 3-10 in this year's draft are all roughly as talented as one another. So why take a guy you think projects as a top six winger when we're already flush with top six wingers? And while I DO think we need better center depth, I think any organization should take centers (all things being equal) because they're more valuable than wingers or defensemen. Again, don't chase anyone, but if you have the choice between a center, a winger, and a defender and they're all roughly as talented as one another you're dumb if you don't take the center.

Lavoie CAN play center, but doesn't. Plus most draft boards have him ranked pretty far below where we should be drafting. So I doubt it. The more I'm reading about Cozens, the more it sounds like some scouts don't think he'll play center in the NHL. If that's true, I'd stay away from him too (thought I'm not sure if it is). If I'm the Wings' management, I'd probably target Zegras, Dach, Krebs, Newhook, Turcotte (in that order) if we want a center. If the Wings think Cozens WILL play center in the NHL, then he jumps to the top of that list.

It's a loophole. He can be sent down to the AHL so long as it's a conditioning assignment, which is limited to 14 days. He would be ineligible to play for GR for the season, as he still has a year of Junior eligibility.

Dubas likely wanted Muzzin because he's a possession monster (which Dubas is all about), but still plays really good defense. Toronto already has two offensive defensemen who can score but don't really defend well (Reilly, Gardiner) both of whom are better than Green at this point in their careers. Muzzin is a matchup guy, and if you pay attention to Toronto at all you'd know that's exactly what they've been saying they want because Hainsey and Zaitsev aren't hacking it against top forwards.

Because Muzzin is 4 years younger, costs less, has already won the Stanley Cup, and is under contract for another year.

Article said that all of NYI top four prospects from the 2018 draft are likely untouchable which is why I opted for Toews. Forgot to mention that.

No we couldn't. Stop being over the top.

If Jake Muzzin is worth that package then PLEASE trade Danny Dekeyser this offseason.

Kid's pretty solid and NYI are stacked on defensive prospects. Here's a little scouting video.

The Athletic did a piece on potential trade targets for the Islanders and mentioned Nyquist as the best fit for a rental. The proposed return would be two 2nd rounders, or a 2nd rounder and a prospect. So I propose... To NYI: Gustav Nyquist To DET: 2nd round pick, Devon Toews.

Give it the old college try?

Analytics, old or new, are an objective way to evaluate players across a set of metrics. You can argue that the measurements are bad, or misleading, or incorrectly applied, but you can't argue with the results because they're empirical. If any stat is good, bad, or in between it's good, bad, or in between for all players equally. And so for comparative purposes it has value. HERO charts just measure points per game and shot effects. Saying "Ericsson should be sitting instead of Cholowski because look at his HERO" is no different than saying "Ericsson should be sitting instead of Cholowski because he scores less per 60 minutes, gives up more shots on goal, and doesn't shoot as much". Seems pretty reasonable to me. Note: this is kind of a bad example because Cholowski, being a rookie, doesn't have a HERO chart yet so I don't know whether he's better in these areas than Ericsson. Secondly, I don't think there's anything wrong with Blashill's system (best I can tell being an amateur). Our defensemen do a good job with all the defensive parts of the game. Unfortunately defensemen in today's game need to jumpstart the transition, jump up into the rush, and produce on the powerplay consistently as well. Ours doesn't. Weird as it is to say, defenses can't just play defense anymore and that's where we need to improve. It's not that gap control, shot blocking, zone coverage, and board battles aren't important, it's just that they aren't enough anymore.

No, they haven't. Pittsburgh has won the Cup three times in that span without a Norris winner. Same with Washington. Since 2000, only 11 teams have won the Cup. Of those, 5 did not have a Norris defender (Colorado, Tampa, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Washington), and 6 did (Detroit, New Jersey, Anaheim, Boston, Chicago, and Los Angeles). So it's hardly that cut and dry. I'm not saying having a Norris caliber defender isn't good, or even preferable. I'm saying you need a good defensive group to win a Cup. I'm not convinced that having the single best defenseman makes that much difference (as opposed to having the best center for instance) because they don't really touch the puck enough to have that big an effect. I think it's way more important that the defense collectively influences the game at a really high level rather than have one stud and a bunch of other guys that are ok.

Lol. None of our current prospects has shown that they'll turn into a 7 time Norris trophy winning, hall of fame, all time legendary defenseman? Whelp...I guess we're screwed.

For sure, and I don't disagree. I just think once you get outside the top 5ish players there enough variability to make it meaningless. Like, I doubt anybody would bat an eyelash if I said Alex Pietrangelo or Aaron Ekblad were a 1A defenseman. Those same people were likely the ones saying for years that Kronwall wasn't a top defenseman, despite him being their equal (in the case of Pietrangelo) or better (in the case of Ekblad) across his career. Likewise Karlsson or Burns might reasonable be considered a 1A defenseman, but probably few would say the same of Byfuglien. I spent a good amount of time looking at all the various top defensemen's HERO charts today. One thing I found really interesting was comparing guys who everyone would consider "elite" with guys who most people wouldn't. The numbers just don't support the narrative. You'd be surprised who's better or worse than who when you take perception out of the judgement and just look at the numbers.

Even that's problematic to use as a guidepost. Is "Norris Caliber" a guy who could realistically win the Norris, or someone who received a Norris vote? Because if the former, then only about 5 guys in the league are 1A, and if the later then you have to include guys like Jacob Slavin, Josh Monson, Shane Gostisbehere, and Mark Eduard Vlasic...according to last year's voting anyway. And none of those guys are realistically better than, say, Werenski, McAvoy, Yandle, Ekman Larsson, Byfuglien, etc. etc. etc. That's the thing I hate about this type of labeling. If it's sufficiently strict enough, it'll necessarily leave out guys we all know are top defensemen; and if it's not strict enough then anybody can be one. https://www.hockey-reference.com/awards/voting-2018.html

These kinds of distinctions are essentially meaningless though. If "1A" is a guy who plays offense and defense equally well, and at basically an elite level, then there are only like 5 of those guys in the league. And if almost no teams have them, then they can't be all that vital to success. If Filip Hronek starts putting up 50 points a season he's a top pair defenseman. If he does that AND plays really good defense then he's elite. If Cholowski plays 20+ minutes a night, plays solid defense, and is good on special teams then he's a top pair defenseman. If he does all that and score 40+ points he's an elite defenseman. Labeling is so arbitrary. It's basically a popularity tool more than a useful categorization.

I'm really not as worried about our defense as everyone seems to be, for a couple reasons. First, we've got genuinely good defensive prospects. Hronek is scoring at a 40ish point pace as a rookie, and Cholowski's right around 30 points pace as a rookie. Pretty impressive. McIsaac battled through injury this season, made Canada's WJC team early (and was a big part of it), and is scoring in line with the top defensive prospects of his draft year while playing a solid defensive game. See no reason why he can't project as a top four defenseman. Maybe Gustav Lindstrom does too, though it's a bit more murky. And then our ranks are loaded with depth guys. And that's all within our own organization. Second, the idea of "you need a elite #1 defenseman" is overblown anyway because nobody seems sure what that means. Quite a few people around here were positive that John Carlson wasn't a "elite defenseman" on the Caps way to the Cup last year. Vegas certainly didn't have one. Pittsburgh has one in Letang, but their most recent Cup was won without him. Unlike centers, where I really believe you need a game breaking talent, I'm less sure you need a star on defense as I'm sure you need two really good pairs. I think we've got the makings of that. Finally, it's nothing you can't fix in free agency. While I've loathed the idea of trading for Trouba for years, nabbing him in free agency a year from now probably changes the entire complexion of the blueline. Same with Josi, Tanev, Muzzin, Spurgeon, Vatanen, Faulk, Barrie. All are FA's next year. Many of them will get re-signed, but some won't. That's what free agency is best for, filling in gaps. I would be really really loathe to reach too far on a defenseman in this year's draft given all the offensive talent that will be available. I still think that our center depth is our biggest organizational weakness at the most important position.

I just saw that the Oilers said they aren't trading their 1st this year, which bums me out because I was hoping they would give a 1st for Nyquist in the hopes of not wasting another year of McDavid's life and then they'd miss the playoffs anyway. Oh well. I'm still holding out hope that we'll get another 1st rounder somehow though. Doubt it will be high enough to get Krebs AND Zegras, but maybe Krebs OR Zegras plus Newhook. A boy can dream.

At 4 million dollar? Sure, why not? Best case scenario he's another Larionov and gives you good minutes as a 3rd liner. Worst case, you put him on IR for the last year or two. I'd only do it if I drafted a top center in this year's draft though. Our center depth is trash. Having Datsyuk for the next 3 years @ 4 million is better than having Z for the next three years @ 6 million. Still think he's provide good value on the PP.

Datsyuk returning to the NHL, and potentially the Red Wings, is in the news again today. His agent, Dan Milstein mentioned Detroit by name. He could be our new Larionov. I'd throw 3 years, 4 million per at him. Bert-Larkin-AA Zadina-Datsyuk-Rasmussen Mantha-Zegras-Svech

I like Krebs a lot too. I was actually thinking about player comparisons for him, and coming up with nothing but I think Zetterberg is a good one. Krebs seems to have really good skill, but he's also super fiesty. Zetterberg definitely had that to his game. I'd be happy with Krebs for sure but I'm still leaning toward Zegras just because of that pure offensive upside. He's got something like 10 fewer points that Hughes (and was actually even with Hughes until after the WJC tourney) and plays on the second line. Pretty impressive stuff. Reading people raving about how good he is on the powerplay as well.

This is kinda my thing with Zegras though, the more I read about the kid the more I think he's a really top level prospect who isn't getting noticed because of the team he's on. I also don't really put too much stock in "tier" because they're so often wrong. In 2017, for instance, it was a two horse race between Hischier and Patrick and everyone else was considered a "tier" below. We now know that Pettersson and Heiskanen are definitively NOT a tier below. Some of what I've read seems to suggest Zegras could be another Pettersson. Yes please.

I've flip flopped yet again on this draft. At this point, if I'm the Red Wings and I don't have the top two picks (assuming that's Hughes and Kakko), I'm taking Trevor Zegras in the top five. He projects as a center at the NHL level and by all accounts he's the most offensive dynamic center outside of Hughes.

I said as much in a previous post. Actually I said he probably sees all our potential first rounders, sounds like I sold him a bit short if he sees everybody up to round 3. And by "area" scout I meant geographic area, not position as clearly a skater is probably not the best scout for goalies and vice versa. I don't expect that Wright, or Hakan, for that matter sees every single player we draft. But I'd imagine they see anyone we're interested in using a high pick on, regardless of position or league or anything else.