kipwinger

I'm so ready for SY to sign some 4th line turd like Tyler Motte and then be done for the day. The press conference will be amazing.

I’ll admit I don’t know much about him, so I have been deep diving since the pick. But I like it. Seems like a Sam Reinhart-lite sorta winger. His size and skating are good and will get better as he gets more muscle. His skill looks good, tho I’d caution that his junior team was a wagon the last couple years so his stats may be inflated a bit. All in all a great pick at that position. I feel really good about it.

I've seen some media reports that NYI are looking for multiple 1st round picks coming back in a trade for Dobson. I can't really recall the last time any player got that kind of package coming back...maybe Hertl? So I think it's probably overblown. But if that's truly the price then I'd walk away. He's a really good player, but he's a RHD and we've got Seider and ASP long term. Use those same assets to pin down a heavier power forward type and address the LHD holes in the lineup in free agency.

Another year another Wheeler mock draft with the wings taking a 5’11, 160 lb. winger. Wash, rinse, repeat. I don’t really like our options with this pick and I think we should trade it for Dobson. He’s a stud and if we trade for him and sign Provorov/Gavrikov we would go from having one of the worst defenses in the league to one of the best.

Also, if “McJesus” wasn’t such a McPussy and scored more than 1 goal in the finals things would likely have looked different as well.

Ekblad worries me because he’s going to get paid a premium but hes constantly injured. I worry about signing too many guys who don’t really have anything left to play for.

Fun thought: After the Panthers win last night much was made about it being a "dynasty" and how were they going to retain their core guys (specifically Bennett). To do so they'd have to shed salary elsewhere, which makes them primed for fleecing. Take a look at their organizational depth and see if there's anything of interest. I like Mackie Samoskevich. He plays really hard and fast, was trained well in Florida, has ties to Michigan (USNTDP and UofM) and is an RFA so he'll need a raise. He seems primed to get traded when you consider every dollar will count down in Florida this summer.

I haven't been dialed in on the draft like I have been in years past, but I do think we need to either target size/offense in a forward or a better LHD prospect than Wallinder or Buium. I like Aitcheson and Carbonneau. Both seem big, tough, and can score. We have excellent center depth with Larkin, Marco, Danielson, Plante (this dude is really really good), and Finnie. Our defense can probably be rounded out in free agency. But our wingers kinda suck and we've got not depth there. So I'd probably prioritize Carbonneau on the wing rather than Aitcheson on defense, but those thoughts should be taken with a BIG grain of salt because again, I haven't really been as involved this year.

Yawn, I fell asleep early last night. Who won? Probably the team with the superstars right? I keep hearing that you've got to have superstars to win Cups and boy oh boy does Edmonton have some superstars.

Is Isaac Howard actually good? His calling card is his offense, which has been okay in the NCAA but nothing amazing. It took him 3 seasons to best Dylan Larkin’s 19 year old campaign in the NCAA.

Hellebuyk has been pulled in all three road games in this series. You can blame the team all you want but it sure seems like he’s the problem here.

Hellebuyk having a total meltdown right now. Damn…

I don’t really get the concern actually. I just watched the Jets win the President’s Trophy with a 30+ year old 1C who’s not THAT much better than Larkin (if at all). Kyle Conner is just Lucas Raymond with a few more years of development under his belt. Josh Morressy isn’t any better than Seider. Edvinsson is actually better than any other defender Winnipeg has. Who’s their 2C? Adam Lowrey? Gabe Vilardi? But Kip, what about the goalie ? We certainly don’t have Hellebyuk but goaltending is actually a strength of our organization going forward. So maybe we don’t get a superstar there but I’m as confident in our goalie pipeline as you could possibly be given that they’re still prospects. So again, not concerned. Here’s the main difference between us and them. Their best players are 3-5 years older than ours. And that experience counts for a lot. Are rookies Kasper, Edvinsson, Sodorblom and Johansson as good as they’re going to be? Not even close. You think Marco Kasper just had a career year at age 20? Of course not. When he’s 23 he’ll score 30 goals. Same is true to a lesser extent with Seider and Raymond. Lucas will score 90+ points really soon. Seider will score 60+ soon too? Why haven’t they already? Because they’re young and our team sucked. That’s why. Im not concerned, Im impatient. Im tired of losing and I wish SY would stop shooting us in the foot instead of investing in the team. He shouted out Montreal and St. Louis in his presser and failed to mention that both those teams invested significant assets to get players from outside their organizations. Suzuki, Laine, Buchnevich, Bromberg, Holloway, Newhook, Dach, Anderson, Schenn, Fowler. Those are good to great players that those organizations ponied but assets to acquire. Our GM has done that ONCE (Debrincat). Otherwise all he’s done is bring in junk to bridge the gap. But it’s kinda irrelevant now because all his young talent is finally arriving on the roster and most of them are as good (or better) than advertised.

It's not about "being content" with it. It's just obvious that's what's going on. When Larkin, Seider, Raymond, Dcat, Edvinsson, Kasper, etc. get us to the playoffs...then we'll go big game hunting in FA to add the elite talent. And it's not like that's a crazy idea. Elite offensive guys like Rantanen and Marner are available almost every year. My personal preference would be to go get Pettersson right now while the price is (presumably) low. I saw some hockey media guy said the other day that Pettersson isn't well thought of around the league. Good. Buy low. I think you'd have to do something around an unprotected 1st OR Danielson but not both. That would give us this to build around: ???-Larkin-Raymond Dcat-Pettersson-??? Sodorblom-Kasper-??? Compher-Copp-Ras ???-Seider Edvinsson-??? Chiarot-??? And before we even think about UFA we have Mazur, MBN, Plante, Lombardi, Buchelnikov, ASP, Wallinder, Buium, Finnie, Cossa, and Augustine (I might be missing some too) to plug some of those holes. THAT'S a pretty solid place to build from. Add Provorov/Gavrikov and Will Cuylle from outside and you've got a genuine contender IMO.

Seth Jones played 26 minutes last night (and had a goal) in a huge win for Florida. I'm totally baffled by this because all the analytics dorks (particularly at The Athletic) have been dunking on that guy for years now. Like, he's supposed to be absolutely terrible right? How are we supposed to make sense of it? I mean, I watched a guy last night who looked like a total stud. But then again, Dom Luczszdanasdkon of the Athletic said he totally blows. What gives?

Article just dropped this week that said Larkin had the 2nd hardest forward usage IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE. Dude does yeoman’s work, and was injured at the 4 nations, and still scored 30 goals and 70 points. Most years he scores 80+ with that usage. As we get more depth that usage will ease and he’ll score 90+ on a winning team. Where does the depth come from? Maybe the 20 year old 2C who just broke out this season under McClellan. Raymond will score the same, 80-90 pts. Cat will score 35+ goals. Ed and Seider will lock down the back end. All we need is for our goalies to pan out and our core looks good. Then we just need to flesh out the lineup with quality depth and thankfully we have a ton of pieces to make it happen. Every team would be better with a MacKinnon or McDavid for sure. But lots of teams are winning playoff games right now without those guys so I don’t think the lack of a premium piece is our issue.

I think Yzerman is still building this "particularly deep" lineup. Add Danielson and ASP and Cossa and Augustine and Mazur and and and... Since SY has taken over the plan was never to build around Larkin. Larkin (if he's still around) will be the old man on the Cup team. Just like Yzerman was. The actual core of the team started with Seider. I think @Jimmybigrigs69said the exact same thing years ago. The Red Wings didn't win diddly squat when Yzerman was their best player. They started winning when Lidstrom and Fedorov were their best players. Florida won a President's Trophy BEFORE they traded for Tkachuk. Yzerman is building a team of work horses and then he's (hoping) to go get a superstar or two to put them over the top. And it's not like his track record on this has been bad. His workhorses keep exceeding expectations. He's accomplishing the mission. I think you could argue that it's the periphery moves that are killing the momentum. For example, we drafted TWO absolute units on defense and they're were/are both playing out of their minds at an EXTREMELY early part of their careers. Things couldn't have gone better with Seider and Edvinsson and our defense still blows because we've surrounded them with puds. And it's not like we just couldn't land better talent. We ALREADY HAD IT. Swap Walman, Gostisbehere, and Maatta for Gustafsson, Petry, and Holl and your defense isn't a total nightmare. Keep one of Sprong or Fabbri instead of Motte and maybe our even strength scoring isn't absolutely abysmal. Swap Perron for Tarasenko and your team has a pulse... ...then add the Edvinsson, Kasper, Johansson, Sodorblom that we saw this season and you're looking at a much better team. Maybe not a contender, but a playoff team for sure. And you keep building from there. Nobody can blame this season on "too many kids, not enough experience". Our pro scouting has absolutely f*cked this team for two seasons in a row. Combined with the fact that Lalonde (and the organization as whole) has a default preference for milktoast puds who "defend well" over dynamic players who bring a number of other elements to the table. They justified Motte's roster spot because of his PK "prowess" and our PK is historically bad. Gustafson was supposed to be a cheaper, more defensively responsible, version of Ghost. In reality he's barely cheaper and no better defensively, but MUCH worse offensively. Tarasenko costs more, and scores less than any of Fabbri, Perron, or Sprong. There's no problem with Yzerman's plan (build around HIS draft picks). That's actually going really really well. The problem is that no team is built entirely of their own draft picks. And when SY and the gang flesh out the rest of the roster they routinely shoot themselves in the foot.

I don't agree with your conclusions. Recent history has shown that deep teams, with more top end talent throughout their lineup, are better than teams that have elite top end talent but not as much depth. I can't imagine too many GMs would rather be Edmonton than Florida despite the fact that the Oilers have the better "difference makers". Contrary to what most people think, I don't believe we need those pad the stats guys. We need guys that will allow Seider to go from 45 points to 65 (think Duncan Keith) points and still be a rock defensively. We need the guy who eats some defensive zone starts so Larkin can stay healthy and score 95 points. Same with Raymond. We haven't had those guys because we've've lacked qualtiy depth forever. So our top end guys get keyed on. Depth changes that. If Marco Kasper can eat those "Anthony Cirelli" type minutes, then Larkin gets to play "Brayden Point" type minutes. Same with Raymond and Seider. Those guys stand to gain a lot when they're not eating the best the opposition can throw at them for 20 mins a night.

I feel like this Pettersson situation is a lot like the Eichel one with respect to how the Wings should view it. I recall everyone in the league being afraid that Eichel's injuries would prevent him from living up to his lofty contract. Scared more than a view potential suitors away. But we're a team without an elite offensive center, and those players are REALLY hard to get ahold of. It was clearly a gamble for Vegas, but it was worth the risk in acquiring Eichel because they didn't have an elite center either. Nobody is going to hand you a top end 25 year old stud center for no good reason. Anyone available is going to have a question mark or two. With Pettersson the question mark has never been about his scoring. It's more than he doesn't really have that "killer instinct" that any decent 1C needs to thrive in the NHL. He's wilts when he's the top guy. But Larkin is the compliment to that. He's been getting nearly crippled (Jamie Benn? Mathieu Joseph?) for years because of all the hard minutes he plays and HE STILL scores 70-80 points. Give him the hard minutes and Pettersson the soft ones. It's the same deployment Edmonton uses with McDavid and Draisaitl. Watch them play, McDavid gets the soft minutes because he can score a zillion points if he doesn't also have to check top players (something he blows at). Meanwhile, Edmonton has a workhorse 2C that can eat the hard minutes AND provide offense. It's not a bad "direction" for the team IMO.

Look, I don't love Pettersson as a player. I think his game is too soft to be an effective 1C. And I think Larkin's offensive game isn't quite good enough to be a high-end 1C. AND we aren't getting a MacKinnon, Barkov, Matthews, etc. any time soon. So we are going to have to do things by committee to some extent. Pettersson has shown that if you have another center to log the heavy minutes (something Larkin has been doing for years) that he can deliver elite offensive outcomes...something we badly need. Trading one for the other would just be an exercise in "digging one hole to fill in another", but together they might add up to a winning recipe. I don't like the contract either, but I'd take solace in the fact that A) the cap is going way up, and B) we have Larkin, Raymond, and Seider on less-than-market-value deals already. If you can get them to take a bad contract (Tarasenko) in return to make the trade work then Pettersson's deal isn't really that big of a problem going forward.

Or we'd send someone on an expiring contract, like Tarasenko, to offset the cost. There's always somebody thrown into each trade just to make the money work.

Not to mention he's nowhere near as good as Larkin on a much worse contract. Hard pass. But... Given that Marco is looking really really good, I'd take Pettersson for something centered around Danielson tho. Larkin, Pettersson, Kasper down the middle would give McClellan a million options next fall. Let Larkin take the tough matchups, which he's used to (and that Pettersson can't handle). Give Pettersson the sheltered offensive minutes, which he's better at than Larkin anyway. And then absolutely cook teams with something like Sodorblom-Kasper-Berggren/Mazur on your third line. All for the cost of a really good prospect that we'd no longer need. Edit: Basically look at the trade that sent Sam Reinhart to Florida. A lottery protected 1st and a good but not great prospect (Devon Levi). I'd imagine any trade for Pettersson would look something like that.

Larkin is getting torched on Reddit for saying something that any Red Wings fan with eyes could see for themselves the last two seasons. The TDL is a time of extreme stress and uncertainty for players on bad teams. These guys genuinely have no idea whether they're going to lose friends, or have to uproot their families, or just "fold" on the season because your GM decided you were a "seller" again this year. So to put them through it year after year after year without committing to any particular direction is completely tone deaf. It drives ME nuts to see a flawed team that neither sells nor adds. I can't imagine how the players feel about it. What even is the point? It's clear going into the deadline that we're not good enough, everyone (including SY) can see it so obviously , and yet he decides to...bring in Craig Smith? Why even bother? Wouldn't the team have been better off just keeping Veleno...a guy they all loved?

Re-sign Kane. Sign Ehlers and Provorov. Trade for Cuylle (Tarasenko, Berggren, plus whatever else). If you can't trade Tarasenko then buy him out and waive Holl. Ehlers provides more pure skill to the lineup and is a really good producer of even strength offense. Cuylle also provides really good even strength offense and plays big and heavy. Provorov can handle 20 minutes a night, is a solid defender, has size, and provides complimentary offense from the back end. Cuylle-Larkin-Raymond Debrincat-Kasper-Ehlers Sodorblom-Compher-Kane Ras-Copp-Mazur Provorov-Seider Edvinsson-Johansson Chiarot-ASP Talbot Mrazek

Marner is a p*ssy. No thanks.