kipwinger

Here's a couple "bold" predictions and a couple of predictions that I (sadly) have to make if I'm being honest. The Bold: 1. Tatar produces more points than Nyquist. 2. Kindl (if not traded) has a bounce back year and produces modestly (25-30 pts. over 82 game pace). 3. Stephen "Weisszerman" Weiss makes half of LGW look foolish when he scores 25 goals. 4. Red Wings miss the playoffs for the first time in two decades. 5. Ken Holland makes solid (if unspectacular) trade for a non-superstar defenseman, fans bemoan move because it doesn't involve a big name. 6. Gus is great...again. Jimmy isn't...again. Peter Mrzek gets more starts than usual, and finally comes back down to earth. The Honest: 1. Our defense is just as bad as last year, and gets exposed too often for comfort. 2. The kids continue to outperform expectations and very nearly drag us into the playoffs...again. 3. Our best players (Dats, Z, Franzen) continue to struggle through nagging injuries and underperform expectations. 4. Red Wings look pedestrian all season as one thing after another always seems to derail their momentum. 5. Mike Babcock and the Red Wings mutually agree to part ways.

Sooo he said the exact same thing Tatar said a week ago?

I'm going to laugh and laugh and laugh if Tatar signs a more "team friendly" deal than Dekeyser. Everybody is overly worried about Tatar, but the local guy isn't signed either. What if he's the one with the "ego problem" or whatever else is being suggested about Tatar? People act like Tatar is some kind of bad seed because he's trying to get the best deal he can. But clearly Dekeyser is doing the same thing and everyone is mum. Truth is, neither are currently signed because their value is really hard to determine. They've both played better than your average rookie but don't have a track record. As such, it's hard for both management, and their agents, to figure out what their proper value is. So it takes time.

f*** YEAH! Did you guys hear the Wings just acquired a Fierro! Ohhhhhh, a Ferraro. Was it Ray? No? Oh, then I don't care!

Who's suggesting he get a 6 million dollar deal?

Who's suggesting he should get a big payday now? I haven't seen a single person advocate that.

Bingo. Statisticians the world over will warn you not to put the cart before the horse as far as the relationships between variables go. It's often not clear which variable is affecting the other. For example: When we see that Brendan Smith has a high Corsi it's easy to assume he drives possession. However, given the fact that he starts in the offensive zone more often than the other top defensemen you'd expect him to be on the ice for more shots at the net. Not because he's advancing the offensive cause, but because teams typically don't get a lot of shots on net from the defensive zone. Must be careful about those pesky causal relationships.

Nobody has advocated a 5 year, 4 million dollar deal for Tatar...including Tatar himself who said he's likely sign a two or three year deal. Also, nobody said that Tatar is a better player than Datsyuk. The comparison was made because someone said Tatar "needed to prove himself", which is silly. He exceeded expectations in his rookie year (as did Nyquist). The only comment definitively made with regards to a Pavel/Tatar comparison, is that Tatar just had a better rookie season than Datsyuk...which is objectively true.

I've been saying the same thing all summer. Apparently, Tatar is lazy, arrogant, and one dimensional while Pavel Datsyuk came into the league already developed into a premier two-way forward whom Bowman leaned on heavily to shut down the opposition's best. He most definitely wasn't an undersized, exclusively offensive, third line forward. Not at all.

I'd agree about the hits, but I'd also say that it's hard to gauge his willingness to use the body because he's so light right now. Increase his weight (which will surely happen) and he may well develop that part of his game as he's got the skating ability necessary to be a hitter in the league. I'm convinced his relative inexperience and skinniness keep those hit numbers down (for now).

I think that Dekeyser will top out as around the same type of player as Dan Girardi. Which will be good for us.

I don't think it's a reflection on the organization (in a negative way) or anything. I wasn't suggesting that. It just seems like an awful lot of turnover. I'm just wondering if that's normal, and I've just never paid attention, or whether it's just coincidental.

I agree. And doesn't he just seem like a guy that Babcock would like? He's gritty, hardworking, defensively responsible AND can score goals now and again? I imagine Babs says those words to himself over and over in the mirror when trying to get aroused.

In the last two years, the organization has lost: Paek Anastas Renney Peters Nill McDonald Leach Do other organizations have this much turnover? It might be totally normal, I've just never thought to follow it until now. Seems like a lot of high profile personnel to lose in a short span.

I don't understand why Callahan doesn't just become the new Holmstrom? He's clearly tough as hell, has a scoring touch around the crease, and isn't afraid to stand in front of slap shots. Plus, he's actually good defensively and on special teams. In another dimension (one where the Wings don't have Andersson or Cleary or Glendening on the opening night roster) I'd pencil this kid in as my fourth line winger, penalty killer, and net front on my 2nd PP unit.

Whoa, don't say that name. Its like beetle juice, three times and he appears

I mostly just took that position because I wanted to call someone "soft in the head". I wouldn't care if the took a flier on Mueller if it was a two way.

I mean, I guess. I just don't see him panning out, so why bother? He's soft in the head.

Three or four years ago Mueller was promising. But no way do I take a flier on a 26 year old with concussions issues, who had exactly one good season.

It's hard for me to disagree with you guys. I mean, I don't hate that lineup. But I just can't help think that 3rd line spot would be perfect for Mantha. He'd get the chance to create a TON of offense with Sheahan and Tatar, AND his minutes (and zone starts) would be sheltered so there wouldn't be any chance of destroying his development by forcing him into a top six role too early.

I agree. But in addition to the whole dad dying thing, he also was a real good sport about starting the season on the bench after he had clearly played his way onto the team, as well as being a good sport about spending probably a year longer in the AHL than he needed to. Tatar, despite what some folks think, has had a really good attitude the entire time he's been in Detroit. I think fans just get worried because he'd the kind of guy who says he's disappointed when he is, or pissed off, or whatever. So they always think he's got an attitude. He doesn't. He's just up front about how he's feeling, which is unique for a Red Wing.

I agree with all of your points. It's just wishful thinking. For me, at this point, it comes down to a matter of priorities. We're in a bad position one way or another, and chances are we aren't going to be too competitive this coming season. Sure, we'll make the playoffs, but that'll be it. So since we aren't (likely) going to be competitive, I'd rather try a new dynamic and get these kids some valuable experience doing it. Not just watch all our little skill guys fizzle out in the playoffs again next season when they can't get to the inside. Bringing back vets like Alfie won't hurt us. But it doesn't really help much either. Alfie will be good in the regular season, but in the playoffs he'll play on the perimeter like the rest of our team, and we'll lose. Sure it won't be his fault and I won't blame him. But I'm tired of watching the same thing over and over. Especially now that we've got a couple of big young forwards who could help with the problem given the chance.

I just think we're miscommunicating. Initially it sounded like you were suggesting that if we didn't resign Alfie and Legwand, we'd have to replace the 100 points they combined for last season. But that's not accurate because Legwand only scored 11 points for us, so in reality we'd only need to replace about 60 pts. (49 for Alfie and 11 for Legwand) in order to have the same offensive output as last season (roughly). But that was just how it sounded. It's clear now that you weren't saying that, and instead are suggesting that Legwand and Alfie could potentially combine for around 100 pts. this coming season, and so if we don't resign them we'll need to replace that production. I agree, they have the potential for that. But it's a moot point because, as we both agree, Weiss will be counted on for about 50 points which would cover the loss of Legwand's 50 point potential so we'd only need to replace Alfie's points if he isn't resigned. I'm not being "misguided or critical" dude. Just trying to make sure we're speaking the same language or else being clear about where we disagree.

I don't know though. I mean, I hear what you're saying. But I guess my whole point is that I think we need a whole different look up front. Personally, I hate the idea of Alfie with Dats and Z. I don't think he can play that many minutes first of all. He faded fast down the stretch. But he's also a perimeter player and so are they. None of them are big or play great in the crease. They're also all getting a little old and injury prone. I definitely don't want my whole top line to come with that many question marks. Personally, I'd like to see Jurco with Dats and Z, and Mantha with Tatar and Sheahan. Will it happen? No. And IMO we'll be worse for it.

I agree, it's not his fault. But it would be stupid to bring back the EXACT same roster as a year ago, and since he doesn't have a contract, it seems like Alfie would be the reasonable one (at this point) to leave out. I, like everyone else, wish it would have been someone else (Cleary) but it's too late for that. But, like I said, I'm of the opinion that we'd be better without him. Not because he's a bad player...he isn't. He produced well. I just think that a young guy with size and drive scoring 35 points makes the team harder to play against than an old guy scoring 45 points. If hockey were only about points, then you'd just pencil your 12 highest producing forwards from the previous year into the lineup. But there's some reason to believe that sacrificing a little by way of points, might make you a better team overall. I've got faith that in a full season Jurco could put up 30-40 points and be WAY harder to play against than Alfie. That's all.