kipwinger

Same. I think Chychrun is a good player, and I'm not turning my nose up at him. But I think Hanifin is the better defender and I think we need to shore up our defense. Chychrun is a better generator of offense, so if you're one of those "the best defense is a good offense types" than I can see the argument for Chychrun. Edit: BTW Hanifin had a SICK goal against Boston last night in game Calgary dominated from post to post.

I'll give you an example of how Ras contributes in ways that don't end up on the scoresheet. Every time we go to overtime Ras starts the overtime period with Larkin and Seider. If Larkin wins the faceoff, Ras gets off the ice and a scorer comes on the ice. But if Larkin loses the faceoff Ras stays on and defends. Defending in overtime is basically the hardest thing you can do in the NHL. It's WAY harder than the PK. And the guys Lalonde trusts most to do that job are Larkin, Seider, and Ras.

We're probably not going to agree on this, which is fine. IMO if it takes Rasmussen to get Hanifin you should just promote Edvinsson instead and look to sign Hanifin in the offseason.

I really like John Bucigross and appreciate that for a long time he was the only dude at ESPN that cared about hockey. But maaaaaan he sucks at calling games.

I don't disagree. I guess I'm saying you need both. Trading one away for the other doesn't do you any good. So you trade Ras for Hanifin, and now you've got a better second pair and no matchup line. At best it's a wash. If you look around the league you'll notice top heavy lineups don't win any more playoff games than teams with great depth do.

I agree with this but I always hold out hope that the scouting staff has their eyes on another Walman type guy that's under the radar. I could still see Gibson being in play though.

Yeah, I wasn't being clear. Obviously we'd need to dump cap. Also, I presume anyone we traded for would have to be interested in signing an extension (like Debrincat did). It's worth noting that both the guys we've been rumored to have interest in (Chychrun and Vatrano) both have term left on their deals.

I think the big thing that would derail us is injuries. If either of Seider or Larkin were injured that would end our season. Outside of that I think we've got a few things going for us. First, we're about to get Kane, Husso, and Chiarot back and all of those additions should only help us. Second, every team below us in the standings is just as flawed as we are and it's extremely hard to make up points. Third, we have enough assets to make deadline additions that improve the team substantially. We (maybe) need a better backup goalie, a difference maker on defense, and maybe another winger. We've got enough assets to address two of the three. Given our lead in the standings and likelihood of improving the roster over the coming weeks I think we're in the driver's seat.

I presume you live a standard white, upper middle class, existence. Should be fairly easy to find more coke.

Coke bros 4 lyfe!!!!!! We bringing Vrana back too?

Hate to be the one to throw cold water on this BUT...Stamkos hasn't played center consistently in years and his game's been really awful (when he's not scoring) for quite a while now. Like, really bad. There's a reason Tampa isn't even bothering to negotiate with him. At the very least you'd need to switch him with Compher, but personally I wouldn't even touch that guy. Here's mine (if we're keeping Kane): DCAT-Larkin-Raymond Kane-Compher-Sprong Ras-Copp-Fischer Kostin-Veleno-Vatrano

I love David Perron. He's the prototypical "glue guy". He was once a very good hockey player, now he's still a decent hockey player, but he brings the right attitude every single day on and off the ice. He's basically Shoresy. He talks a ton of sh*t, is dirty as hell when necessary, will do basically anything for his teammates, and doesn't accept losing.

Maatta and Fabbri both seems primed for trades because they're having good seasons, make a lot of money, and they don't play big roles on the team. Add in that Perron and Gost are both likely gone and the cap going up and you're starting to have some real money to work with. I'd imagine Kane is gone as well. He's been good, and it's been super fun to watch him play, but we're winning games against good team without him so that 2million might be better spent elsewhere. The point is, we can clear a substantial amount of money this offseason and even more in the years to come. The big thing will be getting Raymond and Ras on bridge deals and hopefully Seider doesn't absolutely hold SY over the coals (which he'd certainly be entitled to do).

Well I suspect you and I might fundamentally disagree on a couple of things. First, the value of defensive play overall, as well as the value of Michael Rasmussen. For the most part I don't really give a crap how many points a guy scores (obviously there are limits to this). Why? Because it's not really an accurate way to determine everything a player is doing to contribute to winning games. Shayne Gostisbehere scores more than Jake Walman but one of those guys is doing a lot more than the other to help the team. So in general I look at what roles a guy plays on the team, and whether he's succeeding in those roles, before I look at points. Which brings me to Ras. Prior to about a month ago we had basically one line that played consistently good hockey (Larkin's line). Aside from that we were getting a lot of offense from our defense, a lot of powerplay goals, and a lot of great individual efforts (Sprong). But we didn't really have an even strength line (outside of Larkin's) that could win shifts against good players. The Ras-Copp-Fischer line is exactly that. Their shot share is absolutely ridiculous. They're really, really, valuable. And Ras has been driving the bus on that. Look at all the goals Copp's been scoring lately and you'll find that Ras made the play on almost all of them. He's a beast defensively, on the forecheck, PK, faceoffs AND ON TOP OF THAT he scores .5 ppg. Ras is a modern day Kris Draper in terms of his value to the team. There were a ton of players better than Draper, but very few of them were more valuable in terms of winning games. Besides, you guys are dramatically overstating the return for Hanifin. Look at what Chychrun got last year and Hanifin will get a little less because he's older and doesn't have term on his contract. I really think you're looking at a 1st, 2nd/Good Prospect, cap dump. The hard part with Hanifin is finding the cap space to extend him.

So who comes out of the lineup when Kane gets back? I know the knee jerk reaction is Kostin, but wasn't the whole point of trading for Kostin that we wanted to get bigger and tougher? What would be the point of getting bullied, responding by getting tougher, then sitting your tough guys for the softest player in the league? My vote is Fabbri. He's having a decent season and all, but it makes sense to replace a scorer with a better scorer. Perron is another solid choice but I like his on-ice leadership and he seems to really really help on the top powerplay unit.

Yep, agreed. Your valuation is correct, I'd just cross my fingers that they'd want an overpaying in futures and not roster players.

Nope, but I'd certainly do Veleno and a 1st. I think Ras is too valuable, particularly to a playoff team. Fortunately I don't think that's something that interests Calgary. They're loaded with bottom six two way forwards. I think in order to get it done with us they're going to be looking at futures and defense prospects.

Wanna get even more frustrated? The playoff projections are based on this dude's individual player rankings (i.e. the more "good" players you have - according to his model - the greater your likelihood of success). Trouble is, his player ranking model so seriously overvalues offense, and undervalues usage and quality of competition, that it rates Shayne Gostisbehere and Jeff Petry higher than Moritz Seider, and Olli Maatta higher than Lucas Raymond. But we're all dummies for not being smart enough to see how right he is.

These days I think packages are just too hard to predict because each team's cap and roster situation is so different. For instance, one of the reasons why Arizona got such a modest return for Chychrun (compared to expectations) is because they weren't willing to take a cap dump in return so they had to settle for less. I think it's more useful to think about it in terms of what's in play vs. what isn't. All of the assets you mentioned are all in play (plus a few others I'd imagine). And all the "untouchable" assets I listed above. I think you're in the ballpark but the actual perimeters of the trade are pretty hard to figure.

I REALLY don't like the idea of Chychrun. He's just Chiarot 2.0. We need somone that can defend at a high level for 18-20 minutes a night.

Walman's the biggest Chad, followed by Debrincat. Gostisbehere and Chiarot will turn you gray.

Nobody ever trades their top organizational prospects so you'd have to think Edvinsson, ASP, Cossa and Danielson/Kasper would be off the table. I'd imagine you're looking at some combination of Berggren, Johansson/Mazur, 1st, and (maybe) other picks. Edit: To make the cap work there might be cap dumps thrown in but I'm only listing the assets of value going back.

Here's what Seider needs...Noah Hanifin on the 2nd pair. I've made up my mind on this. F*ck Chychrun. Why do we need Hanifin? Because he's basically exactly like Seider. He plays REALLY tough minutes against top competition for 20+ minutes a night and doesn't get caved. If you have a guy like that on each of your top two pairs then both of them get a break and you've always got someone on the ice that can defend. Walman-Seider Hanifin-Chiarot Maatta-Petry Holl Trade Gostisbehere. Let Seider QB the top powerplay unit and Walman or Petry can QB the 2nd unit.

Agreed. There's a new article today by The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn predicting the Eastern Conference playoff odds. He's got Detroit at 35%, Toronto at 96%, and Tampa at 87%, and Pittsburgh (!!!!) at 75%. The Penguins are sitting below .500 while we're beating the top teams in the league on a nightly basis, but they're probably gonna make it because...reasons?

I'm genuinely not calling you out here, and I'm just using your post as a jumping off point for my comment. So with that said, here goes: I was listening to the Winged Wheel Pod on a road trip today and they kept referencing our playoff odds (as you've done here) and I recalled that just a few short weeks ago our odds were something like 13%. Now we're at >50% with exactly the same team in exactly the same division, conference, and league. My point is, at what point do these types of observations by the sports media cease to have any function? How helpful is a predictive tool that can change so wildly from week to week? This is my big issue with analytical modeling in general. How useful is a model that will tell you "Colorado will make the playoffs again" and not "Vancouver is better than you all think they are"? I'm starting to get the feeling that these folks have jumped the shark a bit.