kipwinger

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For almost as long as anyone can remember the mantra has always been that you need to have superstars to win Cups (in most cases they say you need to draft them too). We've all heard it. I still hear it on certain podcasts. But after watching Vegas (and to a lesser extent Florida) in the post season is it time to rethink this maxim? Is it better to have one or two superstars and then fill out the rest of the roster as you can, or is it better to have a handful of really good, but not elite, players and use the financial savings to ensure that you don't have any replacement level players on your lower lines? We probably all can agree on who the "superstar" players are, more or less, and with the exception of Tkachuk (who nobody would have called a superstar two years ago), all of those guys got beaten soundly by deeper teams. Is it just an anomaly or is there something to it?

At this point we don't, most likely. The ONLY chance we have is to pull a Tampa and luck out drafting guys like Point and Kucherov in later rounds and have them exceed expectations, which is a really long shot considering how good teams are at evaluating talent now. The good news is that Yzerman/Draper seems like a winning combination when it comes to drafting and developing so if anyone were going to do it then it's probably them.

Eichel was on another level in the playoffs for sure, but all season long Vegas fans were complaining about what a disappointment he was. Ended up having a very similar season to Larkin, despite being on a top team. I think he's a star player for sure, but when I think "superstar" I'm thinking the top 3 to 5 players at their position. I don't really see that on Vegas' team.

People always knock Osgood by saying "he played behind a dynasty team" but I think that's even more true of Smith and Fuhr and nobody seems to think they don't belong in the HoF

Does Vegas have "superstars" in your mind? Because I'd argue that they don't really have any truly elite talent.

That's code for "we're hedging our bets because the goalie market is thin". He'll bring one or the other back on a short term deal if he can't land one of the few marginally better options in FA. I'd be bummed to see either of them in net next season but we may not have many other options.

Good on Vernon. I think he deserves to be in. People forget that it's the Hall of FAME and not the Hall of Really Great Careers. As the starting goalie for two very memorable Cup runs, plus the Roy fight, and a really solid career on top of that, I think he fits the bill.

Whether it's Debrincat or Konecny we really shouldn't spend many assets on wingers right now IMO. The reality is that this team is going nowhere until we have a 2C that can carry a line against top competition. NOBODY is game planning for a 2nd line centered by Andrew Copp. It's a testament to just how good Dylan Larkin is that he still produces near a point per game despite the fact that whatever line he's centering is the only line that can score. He is keyed on as much as any player in the league and he's still very good. But without someone else he's sunk, with or without any Debrincat or Konecny types. This has been a glaring weakness with this team for a decade and continues to be. It's good that we drafted Kasper, and I'm hopeful, but the range of outcomes for him could be Phillip Danault to Pierre Luc Dubois to anywhere in between. It doesn't matter who we sign or draft if we don't have a quality 2C we're not taking the next step.

That's pretty histrionic my man. First, he's not making demands. He's simply said he won't re-sign in Ottawa, so it's in their best interest to trade him. He's not missing training cap because he's holding out. And he's not Eric Lindros. Second, he does play "goal line to goal line". His defensive metrics grade out quite well for a smallish scorer. Maybe not better than Konecny, but he's definitely not Jakub Vrana either. You pay WAY too much attention to plus/minus. Every single regular on Ottawa's team was a minus player this year. So what? That's more indicative of a bad team than a bad player. Two years ago Larkin was -18 and he's one of the better defensive centers in the league.

I'd rather have Konecny than Debrincat. He's a slightly less offensively talented winger, but only marginally. Conversely, he's marginally more "gritty" than Debrincat. But also he's under contract for two more years @ 5.5 million.

I spaced on Pittsburgh, that's a really solid choice. Boston is a really cool city too, but I hate the Bruins sooooo bad that I can't bring myself to consider it. If I were an actual player though I'd probably want to play there.

I hate the heat, so no place down south. And I wouldn't want to live on the West Coast. New York is out because it's a hellhole. Columbus is really boring. Minneapolis is a cool city, but their team sucks. Ditto to Buffalo, Ottawa, and Philly. I can't pick Detroit per the OP. I guess I'm going with Chicago. They have winter, it's not far from Michigan, the city is pretty cool, and the team (while bad) actually intends to be good again one day. So if I were a younger player I'd want Chicago, if were in the twilight of my career I'd just be looking to play for a contender.

Yes.

His qualifying offer is 9 million, which is a contractual stipulation. That's not the same as what he'd get in arbitration. The way restricted free agency works is, the team has a number of options. First, they can sign him to a long term deal at any AAV and term they both agree to. Second, they can qualify him at his qualifying number (in this case 9 million) and that's what he'll play at for a year if nothing changes. Third, they can take him to arbitration (which they're doing) if they think the qualifying offer is too high but they still want to keep him (and try to make the case that he's worth another number). In this scenario he can still be signed or traded before his arbitration date. Fourth, they can trade him and his rights and the new team has to sign, qualify, or take him to arbitration. Fifth, they do none of these things and he becomes a UFA in July. The overall take away is that in only one case does Debrincat play at 9 million per year, and that's a pretty unlikely outcome considering Ottawa has already filed for arbitration and any team he gets traded to will be looking to extend him.

I don't think they'd retain much on Karlsson. If they retained half they're still sitting on a 5.5 million cap hit for four years. That's not insignificant. Not to mention Karlsson, despite his deficiencies, is still a hugely popular player in the league. I think rather than eat a bunch of money for that long a period of time they'd simply choose to keep him till the end of the contact and sell a whole bunch of Erik Karlsson merch (like the Tigers have done with Cabrera).

Fun Fact: Last season Erik Karlsson was on the ice for the most 5 on 5 goals against IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE. Like, he's baaaaaaaaaad. You can't play him against top competition and win. But you also can't not-play him if you want his offense. Quite the dilemma. And then you remember you have to pay him 11 million bucks for the privilege of trying to figure out how to use him. He's a wreck.

Well yes, but that's not what I meant. He has a no-movement clause in his contract, so no team can just trade him whenever they want. But what I was really getting at is that he's under contract for 4 more seasons @ $11 million dollars AAV...and...he's...terrible. He can't defend. At all. So you'd have to hide him in the lineup. You'd be paying an oft injured, 33 year old, WAY too much money, then you'd have to shelter him, and then you'd have to keep sheltering him for 3 more years (assuming he's traded at next year's deadline as you indicated). The only way Karlsson is moving is if San Jose is willing to move the 4th overall pick. Otherwise I just don't see anyone touching that contract.

His contract?

Maybe, not sure I want 4 more years of a 33 year old defenseman at 11 million

You'd have to assume that San Jose would be swapping the 4th with the 9th pick in order for Detroit to have any interest in this trade. Otherwise it makes no sense from our perspective.

One of them was on a Stanley Cup championship caliber team and the other played for the Ottawa Senators. Also, who cares about plus/minus?

Debrincat and Jonathan Marchessault are basically the same player, so this bodes well.

Again, we are allowed to have more than one good player per position. The guy is a monster though, he’s playing the “power winger” role as good as anyone in the league right now. If we had him, Ras, and Copp/Kasper as power wingers on our top three lines it would go a long way toward the “harder to play against” goal SY is looking for.

As a 19 yo with a 19yo body he scored almost 60 pts. He’s clearly a good player. He just can’t be the only scoring winger we have.