krsmith17

Yes, Zadina was one of the older players in his draft class, but he was also one of the youngest in the league last year. Does that not account for something? There's nothing "magical" about the draft +1 season, any more than being 19 years of age. That's the point. I don't care how well a player does in one season, whether it's his draft year or draft +2 year, when he's 18 years old or 20 years old. What matters to me is how they project, and eventually how they play over many years. Zadina didn't have a spectacular rookie season, but considering he was one of the youngest players in the AHL, he had a solid season. I think he will be much improved this season, and great in the future.

You want to use the age 19 as a standard. I'll use draft +1 as my standard. By the way, Zadina will still be 19 to start next season... In Larkin's draft +1 season, he played 0 NHL games. Ditto for the 6th overall pick in 2014 (Jake Virtanen). The 6th overall pick in 2015 (Pavel Zacha) played one NHL game. The 6th overall pick in 2016 (Matthew Tkachuk) played a full season (76 games). The 6th overall pick in 2017 (Cody Glass) has yet to play an NHL game. Rasmussen didn't play a single game in his draft +1 season. Zadina (only) played 9 NHL games (to slide his ELC)...

I think the only way the Avs or Kings would want to trade back a spot or two is if they don't want Byram. And if that's the case, no need to trade up. I want Byram over any other player (outside the top two), but I don't think I'd trade up, unless the cost were minimal (it wouldn't be). I'm not sure many touted Zadina to be an NHL walk on. Some probably thought he had a chance, which he did, but most players drafted beyond the first couple picks in the draft, are at least one season away from the NHL. Zadina being outscored by two AHL vets as an 18/19 year old does not concern me in the least.

Yup, that's a pretty safe bet, considering Megan and Puempel will play 60+ games in the AHL, while Zadina will play <40...

I'll get behind that for sure, but again, that's unlikely in my opinion. I think he'll be a 60+ point winger. If for whatever reason, he does end up being a 40-50 point winger, Yzerman will trade him straight up for a 70+ point winger (Galchenyuk for Domi).

Yakupov = bust Galchenyuk = disappointment Zadina will develop into a top 6 winger. Whether he's a half a point per game winger or a point per game winger is yet to be determined.

Disappointment? Sure. Bust? No. In my opinion, Zadina's floor is a Tatar or Nyquist (40-50 points), his ceiling is a Kucherov or Patrnak (80+ points), but it's probably most likely that he ends up somewhere in between, like a Forsberg or Ehlers (60-70 points). Maybe not a player you build around, but a legit top line winger.

Does that constitute a bust though? How many wingers in the league can you legitimately say you can build a team around? I'd say Tatar is Zadina's floor, but his ceiling is MUCH higher than that in my opinion.

You had Zadina penciled in at 3, but yet you think he's going to be a bust? Most had Zadina penciled in at 3, but I said this time last year, when there was all that talk about trading up for Zadina, that we should stay put because there's a real possibility that he could slip to 6. This year, there's absolutely no way Byram slips out of the top 5. The last time a defenseman was not picked in the top 5, was 2003. That's not going to change this year. One of Chicago, Colorado or Los Angeles will pick him.

Unfortunately, there's no way he drops to us at 6...

Kind of odd, considering we signed Sulak to a two-year, two-way entry level contract, two years ago at the same age (23). He was also an undrafted defenseman coming from the Finnish Elite League (Liiga). Either way, one year, two years, makes no difference. He'll likely play in Grand Rapids regardless.

Thanks! First I've heard of that. Do you have a link / source?

I wouldn't say anyone necessarily "over values right shot defensemen". Some people just value balance more than others. With Green, Bowey and Hronek on the team, and Lindstrom on the way, I don't think right shot defensemen are as big of a need as it has been in the past. Kaski is a welcomed addition, but I don't care so much about handedness on the back end right now, as it's already fairly balanced. For me (and others), the bigger need is right shot forwards. Not having a single high end right shot forward on the team or in the entire system is a problem. Either way, good signing, when it eventually happens. Reportedly going to be a one year contract, which I was kind of surprised about. My expectations are low, but if he can become a player, great for us.

I agree with all of this.

I wouldn't bet against it (the way I did, dropping to 6), but I think there are others that could be an option in Cozens, Dach, Krebs, etc...

Yeah, I wouldn't not take a player at 6 for that reason. It should always be BPA, but I'm just not convinced he will be BPA when we pick. If he is, great, but I'm not quite sold. Hughes and Kakko obviously won't be available at 6. Neither will Byram. Cozens might be. Broberg definitely will be, but shouldn't be our pick. I'm all for adding some right-shot forwards, but not at the expense of passing up on better players. A lot of people seem to be low on Cozens. He's still at the top of my list though.

Ok, fair enough I guess. That's where we disagree though. I think going after Karlsson would be a big mistake. So I guess in a way, I see some of these big "unmovable" contracts that are hindering Yzerman from going after the big fish as a bit of a blessing in disguise...

Having a fantastic morning, thanks for asking. By the way, I quoted you, but my response wasn't aimed directly at you. I'm just sick of people repeating the same garbage without backing it up with anything substantial. You said "The reason we wont be competitive within the next 3 years is primarily these contracts." I'd just like to know why you think those contracts will have any bearing on us being competitive in the next three years and beyond, because I don't think they will.

I suspect that Yzerman would have to send a pick or prospect to Seattle if he wanted to get rid of those guys in the expansion draft. We all seen how those sorts of deals worked out in the Vegas expansion draft. Protect the players you want to protect, and let it play out. No side deals. The main thing is, we won't have to protect any players we wouldn't want to.

I've explained several times why I don't believe any of those contracts, besides maybe Abdelkader's, will hurt us long term. All I get back is, yes they will, without any explanation as to why... If you're going to say these contracts are going to hurt us long term, back it up with reasons why... None of the "bad" players / contracts will need to be protected in the expansion draft. Not one. Exactly. The only thing I'll add is that NTC's don't matter when it comes to protection in the expansion draft. It's only NMC's that must be protected, and we won't have a single one on the books by the time the expansion draft rolls around.

But those contracts will be burning out quick over the next few years, by the time we're in a position to compete. The only one that will be remaining that supposedly can't be traded is Abdelkader's. I just don't see how that one contract hurts us, even when we are good again. And like mentioned previously, it could always be bought out in the last year or two as well, if need be. Point is, Holland didn't leave us in a bad spot, like so many (not necessarily you) seem to believe, and Yzerman has a relatively good spot, coming in to (continue to) rebuild this team.

Maybe. Maybe not. My question then would be, do you think that one "bad contract" would really hurt us that badly in a few years?

I agree that some of those clauses should have never been included in those contracts. I've said as much in previous posts. However, where I disagree is that they effect us in any major way going forward. In my opinion they don't, but I've stated why several times already, so I'm not going over that again. All I'll say is that of those seven NTC/NMC's, only two of them (Nielsen and DeKeyser) are beyond next season. That's not a huge deal. If Yzerman can buy out all of Nielsen, Abdelkader and DeKeyser you'd feel a lot more confident? So you'd be okay with having a ridiculous amount of dead cap space for the next 8 years? 2019-20 - $3,506,945 2020-21 - $7,756,945 2021-22 - $9,256,945 2022-23 - $5,506,945 2023-24 - $3,756,945 2024-25 - $3,756,945 2025-26 - $1,145,833 2026-27 - $1,145,833 That would NOT make me feel very confident in Yzerman as the GM of the Red Wings going forward... Luckily he's not that dumb... The only contracts that look bad long term in my opinion are Nielsen's and Abdelkader's. The rest are either up in the next year or two, or in DeKeyser's case, still a valuable player going forward. With that said, you can retain up to 50% on any contract. I'm sure a cash strapped team, looking to reach the cap floor would be willing to take on Nielsen or Abdelkader in the remaining couple years of their contracts. Nielsen at $2.625M for 1-2 years as a 3rd line center or Abdelkader at $2.125M for 2-3 years as a 4th line winger isn't terrible value. It makes much more sense to eat salary for a couple seasons than buy-out the player.

I don't think there's any way the Rangers take Byram over Kakko, but there's also no way Byram drops to us at 6... unfortunately.

Yup, Montreal drafted for need. I think that will come back to bite them in the ass. Not because I don't think Kotkaniemi will be a good player, but because I think Zadina will be better. No, I don't expect coaches and management to s*** on Zadina, but they could have said a lot of generic positive things without saying that he plays a strong two-way game... You really think they would be thinking now, just a few short months later, that they should have drafted Bouchard (or any other player) over Zadina? Top prospect for a pending UFA... So happy you're not the GM of the Red Wings...