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Everything posted by krsmith17
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Official 2018 NHL Amateur Entry Draft Discussion Thread
krsmith17 replied to LeftWinger's topic in General
I'm not saying that would be a bad trade, because it wouldn't, but it would be a dumb (dick move) trade, that this organization would never make. The reason Andrei wants to be drafted by Detroit is because he wants to play with Evgeny. Imagine how much that would piss him off, to hear the Wings are drafting him, but his brother is being dealt to make it happen... -
Official 2018 NHL Amateur Entry Draft Discussion Thread
krsmith17 replied to LeftWinger's topic in General
We have a chance to bottom out or be bottom 3, without losing the rest of our games. We have a difficult stretch over the next couple weeks, but a relatively easy finish to the season. I think we'll be in pretty good shape going into the draft lottery. If we finish dead last, it improves our odds for the first round, but don't kid yourself into thinking there's any real difference in a 5 pick spread in rounds 2 through 7. Sure, I'd rather pick 32 over pick 36, but it's really not much of a difference, and even less beyond the 2nd round. There are so many teams going "off the board" with picks in the later rounds that it doesn't really make much of a difference. I've been on board the "tank" for a while now, because I want to improve our lottery odds, but in reality, I believe that a certain position in the standings is destined to win the lottery, not a certain team. A certain number of balls are going in for each position in the standings, and the same balls are going to be drawn in the same order, no matter where the teams finish in the standings, or what logo is on each ball. Let's say the number one pick goes to the 27th ranked team (which we are now), that ball is going to be drawn whether it has a Red Wings logo on it, or any other team. Just look at 50/50 draws at sporting events. Dylan and Anthony buy 5 tickets each. Dylan happens to buy tickets 123451-123455 and Anthony ends up with tickets 123456-123460. The winning ticket is 123459. Anthony wins the draw. Do you think he was destined to win that night, no matter when or where he bought his 5 tickets? Or do you think ticket number 123459 was destined to win, no matter who bought the ticket? I believe the latter. It's all about being a top the right place a top the right time. The same applies to the draft lottery. It's a complete crapshoot, as the Flyers proved last year. Maybe we're better off losing out, maybe we're better off playing .500 hockey, or maybe we're better off going on a huge run. No one will know until after the balls are drawn next month... Speaking of the Flyers, as everyone knows, they moved up to 2nd overall pick last year with the 12th best odds. They finished the season with 88 points. The Jets and Hurricanes finished the season one point behind with 87 points each, and the Kings finished with 86 points (held the tie breaker ROW). If the Flyers lost one more game that season, or if the Jets, Hurricanes or Kings won one more game, Nolan Patrick would have been wearing a different jersey this year. My point is, tanking isn't a great strategy (despite me wanting to lose games...), and it can bite you in the ass, so be careful what you wish for... -
Official 2018 NHL Amateur Entry Draft Discussion Thread
krsmith17 replied to LeftWinger's topic in General
I'm not sure if you're serious, but I'm going to assume you are and say no, not even close... There is literally no package we could put together that would get this deal done, nor would it be worth it. Okay, maybe we could package Larkin, Mantha, Rasmussen, Cholowski, Hronek, 2 of our 2018 1st's, 2019 1st and 2nd, and they might listen... Whoever wins the lottery is not even considering moving that pick under no circumstances. -
Uugh, I definitely wouldn't. F*** the Hawks. I will break things if they end up with Dahlin... Also, as we've seen, if Zadina is the top guy available, there's no guarantee Holland would even take him at 3... The more I think about it, the more nervous I get if Holland is still around to make that first pick...
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We could have had the real Swedish combo if we had taken Liljegren last year... Imagine a top pair of Dahlin - Liljegren...
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I'm talking about the actual lottery outcome, not the lottery odds.
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If the standings remained the same to end the season, and you had the choice between staying at 5, or moving up to 3, but it would mean that Chicago moves up to 1 (taking Dahlin) and Edmonton moves up to 2 (taking Svechnikov), what would you do? 1. Buffalo 2. Arizona 3. Vancouver 4. Ottawa 5. Detroit 6. Montreal 7. Edmonton 8. Chicago OR 1. Chicago 2. Edmonton 3. Detroit 4. Buffalo 5. Arizona 6. Vancouver 7. Ottawa 8. Montreal I'd personally rather stay at 5. I'd probably even go as far as to say I'd rather drop back to 6 or 7, as long as Chicago and Edmonton don't jump into the top 3... Now, if we could move up to 1, I don't give a s*** who moves up to 2 and 3. I'd gladly give 2 and 3 to Chicago and Edmonton, if it meant us getting Dahlin...
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We're now 2 points ahead of Ottawa, 4 points ahead of Vancouver, 6 points ahead of Arizona and 7 points ahead of last place Buffalo... With the next 5 games being on the road against LA, Anaheim (back-to-back), and Colorado, and then 2 at home against Philadelphia and Washington, we could easily see ourselves drop in to the bottom 3 in a weeks time... Then we're in Toronto, Montreal (who've had our number), and back home against Pittsburgh (another back-to-back)...
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Big 2 points for Ottawa and Montreal tonight.
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No. Right now Arizona has an 18% chance at #1 overall, we have a 7.6% chance, and St. Louis has a 1% chance... http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds
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Montreal are awful and they have very little in the pipeline. If Bergevin stays, I'm not too worried about our "rival" Montreal. I'm not sure even Dahlin can save that team right now. However, I'd much rather Dahlin be in our division, than see him go to Chicago... But that's just me. As of today, there's a 39.1% chance Dahlin ends up in the Atlantic division. So there's a real possibility one of Buffalo, Ottawa, Montreal or Detroit end up with him. Let's hope it's us... As for the trade, I was completely joking. I'd never expect the Canucks to make that trade. But as a Wings fan, yes please...
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Hawks is by far worst case scenario. Here's how the top 5 will go down... 1. Detroit - Dahlin 2. Vancouver - Svechnikov 3. Arizona - Zadina 4. Buffalo - Tkatchuk 5. Ottawa - Boqvist We trade Svechnikov and our 1st from Vegas to Vancouver for Boeser. Svech bros become the new Sedin twins...
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I look forward to seeing what you do when we get 1st overall...
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Yeah @toby91_ca, I'm not sure where you're getting this info from, but I think it's completely off base. Everything I've heard and read has indicated that this is going to be an extremely good draft. Very strong at the top, with a generational player going number one, a few other elite level talents in the top 3-5, and top end talent can be found throughout the first couple rounds. I've heard that it could even rival the 2003 draft for overall depth in the top two rounds...
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I hadn't read the article (until now), but I did read the quote from Johnston comparing Cholowski to Jones a couple days ago. I'd absolutely love if Cholo develops into half the player Jones is, but I don't see much of a comparison there to be honest. They may have slightly similar styles of play, but Jones is on a whole other level in my opinion. He was playing in the NHL at 18/19. Cholowski is now 20. He's dominating the W this year, but that's to be expected at his age. Regardless, exciting to hear such high praise on the kid. Hopefully he's a late bloomer and can develop into a top pair guy.
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Holland should have the upper hand in negotiations though. Green has made it very clear that he wants to stay in Detroit. If he really does, he should take a discount and take whatever years he's offered. If he says he wants 3+ years and a NTC, let him walk. He can do much better in free agency. The question Is, does he want to?
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No, Green isn't going to make this team a contender, and no one should expect him to. What he is, is a stop gap, transition for the kids. Hicketts is likely a 3rd pair defenseman at best. Cholowski, Hronek, Saarijarvi, etc, are all likely a year or two away. We need a veteran top 3 defenseman to fill out the roster for the next year or two. Why not Green? Who else is there? Carlson will re-sign in Washington. I'd take Green over Enstrom. Every other pending UFA sucks. Our defense is a disaster right now. Do we really want to make it significantly worse? You may, but I sure don't... Also, like kliq said, the trade chip doesn't need to be this year, it could be the following season. Although ideally, we'd sign him to a 1-2 year deal, and we can trade him one of the next two seasons. The bold / underlined, I completely agree with. I do think Larkin and Mantha are good enough, but we still need another future top line guy. Will that be Rasmussen? I hope so, but doubt it. We need to load up on high end defensemen / forwards (preferably some righties) over the next couple drafts.
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So we'll likely have between a 6.7-8.5% chance at Dahlin, and a 20.9-25.9% chance at a top three pick. I like those odds. Last year the Flyers had a 2.2% chance at landing that number two pick. They got it. I have a very good feeling about this draft lottery. We're definitely moving up.
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I agree, but those 4th line players on big contracts can be moved regardless of whether or not Puempel can hack it. Turgeon is more than capable. Then between Puempel, Tangradi, Street, Lorito, Ford, or free agent, you can fill out a 4th line. Long term, high salary contracts should never be given out to 4th line forwards in my opinion...
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This is what I want more of. F*** off with the safe picks. Take a chance on some kids with elite skill but holes in their game. I'd rather gamble on a kid with top line / pair talent that may boom or bust, rather than a kid with 2nd line / pair ceiling and 3rd line / pair floor.
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You do that in January / February, not September / October. As an NHL general manager, your goal is to assemble the best team as you possibly can, or you're not going to be employed very long. At the beginning of every season, you should give your team the best chance to win. Once you get around the trade deadline and it's clear you're a bottom 3rd team, then you start trading off pieces. So you don't re-sign Green, and hope your team is bad enough and lucky enough to win the draft lottery. I re-sign Green in hopes that we can remain somewhat competitive, and likely have about the same odds of winning the draft lottery. It also gives me the extra asset to dangle (and hopefully trade this time) around the deadline. You end up with a 5th overall pick, and I end up with an 8th overall pick, 30th, plus. Do you think you're much further ahead in your rebuild? I don't. Maybe even further behind... Also, look at what tanking has brought Edmonton, Arizona, Buffalo, etc...
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Official 2018 NHL Amateur Entry Draft Discussion Thread
krsmith17 replied to LeftWinger's topic in General
Imagine the outlash from fans if both Detroit and Chicago move up 6 spots in the draft. Red Wings are moving up, but I hope the Hawks don't... -
According to Blashill, Svech will stay beyong Nielsen's return, which is great news. Hopefully he's able to contribute offensively and stays up for the remainder of the season...
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Svechnikov switched from number 37 to 77 (the number he's been wearing in GR). Starting on the 3rd line with Abdelkader and Athanasiou. Also worth noting that the FML line is being reunited with Frk moving up to the 2nd line with Larkin and Mantha.