Richdg

Before anyone jumps off of a bridge, this has nothing to do with any team. It is a general set of thoughts. What would I do in terms of team make up and roster control/spending if I was running a NHL team. Keeping some things in mind: 23 man roster and a 70 million $ cap, here we go. 1. Player experience/roster management. Ok we have a 23 man roster. It is impossible to have all 23 players between 27 and 32, which is the prime of most players careers. Not to mention the cost of having a team like that. My ideal roster would have 2 rookies, 2 second year, 2 third year, 2 fourth year, 2 5th, 2 6th, 2 7th, 2 8th, 2 9th, 2 10th, 2 11th, and 1 guy with 12 or more. By doing this you are keeping young and cheap plays coming in and managing the costs. If the average rookie is 22 when he makes the roster, this still keeps the majority of the players between 26 and 32. The prime playing years. Some of course come earlier and some later. 2. managing the cap. If you divide 70 million by 23, you spend 3 million per player. if you actual payroll looked like that you would have a pretty poor team. Also most rookies and young players don't make nor do they need to make 3 million per year. So where and how much do i spend? The backup goalie, 7th Dman, and the 13th and 14th forwards are all at 1 million or less. That is 4 guys of the 23. leaving 66 million to spend on 19 players. The starting goalie is in a 5 million per slot. The 1-6 Dman make the oppisite amount. IE the 1 makes 6, the 2 makes 5, the 3 makes 4, the 4 makes 3, the 5 makes 2 and the 6 makes 1. At this point I have allocated 30 million of the 70 and covered 11 players. Leaving 40 million for the remaining 12 forwards. The 4th line guys make 2 million each. This leaves 9 players and 34 million left to spend. The 6 remaining RW and LW each get paid 3 million. This leaves 3 players and 16 million to spend. The 1 and 2 C get 6 million each, and the 3rd C makes 4 million. That allocates all 70 million allowed for the cap. 3. Now i have never been inside of RW HQ. But I am sure they have a plan along these lines somewhere. Every company does. You have to know where the money is going etc..... Now some may want to spend more accross the board on the top line. So be it, everyone has their own opinions. But in the end, you still have to have 23 players and can only spend 70. later I will take these thoughts and tie these with the wings and their roster. I am sure that will be fun! LOL!

Best prospects? Sorry but we just don't know if any will turn out. We have hope for Smith and Nyquist, but the rest are so far away you can't tell. Most have yet to play a single professional hockey game. We have 5 about to hit the prime of their careers, 3 of which will be UFA's next season. No! Not a new thread! The thread police will come out and attack you! Which btw makes zero sense. What is the purpose of a forum if you can't make new threads?????

Just a quick example. STL and Wash lost in the same round. Semin went and backes did not.

I wasn't talking about the RW yet. But since you brought it up, lets. Currently the RW have 21 returning players from last year returning. Here they are by age groups, with their age in 2012. 26 and under: Abby 25 Emmerton 24 Helm 25 Mursak 24 Nyquist 22 Kindl 25 Smith 23 27-32: Eaves 28 Filppula 28 Miller 28 Zetterberg 32 Ericsson 28 Kronwall 31 Quincey 27 White 28 Howard 28 MacDonald 32 Over 32: Bert 37 Cleary 34 Dat 34 Franzen 33 Then there are the old UFA's Lidstrom and Hommer. 42 and 38 respectively. On the surface the roster is balanced fairly well. Majority of the team in the 27-32 year old group. 4 of the 6 premuim positions covered in that group. But that is also were some of the questions arise for the team. Filppula and Howard are UFA's after this coming season, and Zetterberg moves out of it due to age. Now we are down to just 1 of the 6 premium postions covered by this group. White is solid as a #4 D, but can either Quincey or Ericsson become a #3 D? Both are going to be/are paid like one. eaves, Miller, and MacDonald are just backup role players and that is fine. The question is: where do our next group of stars come from? History says this is the make/break years for Ericsson and Quincey. Most of us feel good about Smith. The rest of or prospects are several years away. this is also why everyone is talking so much about signing(insert your fav. UFA here) free agents. We need a youthfull talent infusion. Now look at the roster via lines and budget amounts. yes this is just my opinions and everyone has their own versions of this. top line: LW(3m budget): open, C(6m budget) Datsyuk, RW(3m budget) Franzen, this line needs a new LW 2nd line: LW (3m budget) open, C(6m bidget) Zetterberg, RW(3m budget) open, this line needs a new RW and LW 3rd line: LW(3m budget) Nyquist, C(4m budget) Filppula, RW(3m budget) Cleary, this line is set for the year. 4th line: LW(2m budget) Abdelkader, C(2m budget) Helm, RW(2m budget) Bertuzzi, this line is set for the year. 13 and 14th forwards: Mursak and Emmerton. Both are under the 1m per year budget. Defense: top pair: 1D(6m budget) open, 2D(5m budget) Kronwall, we need a new #1, ideally a RH shot. 2nd pair: 3D(4m budget) Quincey?, 4D(3m budget) White, can Quincey be a number 3d? 3rd pair: 5D(2m budget) Ericsson-overpaid? or can he become the 3D?, 6D(1m budget) Smith 7D: Kindl, under the 1 million per year budget Goalies: starting G: Howard, budget is 5 million and he is under that backup G:MacDonald, budget is 1 million and he is at it Now looking at the roster this way, we have 2 guys that don't really fit: Miller and Eaves. Neither one is good enough to fill any of the 3 open forward positions. We also have a hole at the #1 D. That is 4 opens to be filled via trade or FA. With the current contracts and budgeting, our total payroll would be 65 million. Leaving 5 million (based on an estimated cap of 70 million) leftover to bank for next season. After this season we have the following UFA's: Howard (should resign for 5 m or less per year), White (should resing for about 3 m per year), Cleary-needs to be let go and free up his 2.8 million cap hit, and Filppula who maybe should be let go, freeing up his 3 million per year. With those 4 contracts expirering, and a modest cap increase to 72 million, we will have 18 million to spend. 5 goes to Howard, 3 to White, leaving 10 million left to fill the #3 C and the #3 RW position. If, and we can hope Bertuzzi retires, that adds another 1.5 million to spend, if Sheahan is ready to take his spot on the 4th line. By doing all of this, you can start to see something of a 2 year plan, to keep us moving forward, without a huge drop off. I am not going into the 100$ guessing game of naming FA's or trades, that horse has been beat to death already. But there are several UFA's this year that stay in budget and fill our 4 holes, while improving our team. Then we get to the loaded 2013 class of UFA's and can find a potentail super to help at C.

Way to show a complete lack of class. But you have to live with yourself, not me. To bad you can't engage your mind. Good to see the old commie trick of: "if you can't refute the message, attack the messager", is alive and well.

Correct. The US and canada could have multiple international teas if all their top players showed up-hell Canada could have 3 or 4. But most don't go play. Most are looking forward to the time off and take it. The Olympics are the main international comp., and the top player show for it. Which is why the US and Canada win the gold and silver.

I understand that points are just one item to look at. That is why i also talk about declining games played, and declining shots. Dat has gone from 264 shots in 08 to 164 shots in 2012. Alos keep in mind, that prior to this year, Z and Dat played the majority of the time on the same line. So that is even more troubling. Our top 2 players, playing on the same line, and both are dropping off. As for what is happening at the WC, I really don't care. It means nothing. Different ice-helpfull to Euro players, many of the top US and canadian players not there, and most of the euro teams are made up of guys not able to play in the NHL. Its akin to the RW beating the griffins.

5. I posted this on another thread as well, but needs to be repeated here. In general, men reach their physical peaks around 27. if you go look at players in every sport, they generally have their best years from age 27-32. yes you can have some freaks come along, but those are rare. Ideally, 1/3 to 1/2 of the team would be in this age group. it is hard to get to 1/2 now with the cap, because guys this age in their primes, get paid premium dollars. But a team should have 10+ guys between 27 and 32. With the balance split equally between those younger and older than this group. In a perfect world, you have 11 guys between 27-32, 6 guys 26 and younger, and 6 guys 33 and older. if things are really going well, your top 3 forwards, top 2 dmen, and starting goalie are in the group 27-32.

You can't compare teams from the pre-cap era to now. just doesn't work. In 97-02 we have basicly 3 top lines and the best checking line in the game. heck even our checking line was good for 60 goals many years. In todays game a team only has money for 3 maybe 4 premium offensive talents. Those guys then have to produce. Also, we started winning Cups when Bowman finally got Stevie and Sergi to play D. They couldn't spend all their time and energy strictly on scoring. But even they were in decline. every player goes through it at some point. Decline is not an overnight thing. For most players, they start dropping 5-7 points per year, and do so over many years. it is rare-unless injured, that a player goes for an 80 point per year guy to a 40 point per year guy in 1 season. datsyuk is a classic example. In 08 and 09 he scored 97 points each year. Now he is in the low 70's. That averages out to 5-7 points each season. It is also important to note the ages of players when talking about production. Most athletes have their best seasons between 27-32 years of age. This is true in all sports. Men reach their physical peaks around 27, hold at that level for a few years, then begin the long slow graduale decline. Going back to datsyuk. In 08 and 09 he put up 97 points each season. he was 29 and 30 those 2 years. Filppula had his best season this past year-he is now 28. Zetterberg had his best season in 08-he was 27 and his second best season in '11 when he was 31. Just staying with teams in detroit, why are many lions fans getting excited? They finally have talent, and that talent is just coming up on the prime years. the Pistons have some good young talent, but those players are still 2-3 years from their peaks, which is part of why they are struggling. Tigers fans are all pissed off, because they are playing poorly, with their stars all in their late 20's. But most also understand that by the end of the year JV-29, cabby-28, and prince-28 will all have MVP type numbers. You can't fall into the trap of looking at Lidstrom and expect that for everyone. he is one of those rare freaks of nature that can play forever at a high level. TBH, I would not be shocked to see Lidstrom in 2 more Olympic games. yes that would make him almsot 50 by that time. he could easily go home, play 20 games in the SEL, then be ready for a 12 game tourney.

I would doubt that he goes to the Pens. if by chance he does, it says a lot about Crosby's health. Crosby and Staal are both UFA next season, and they are going to have issues keeping both as it is.

Seems that Mr. Parise has something of a man crush on the rangers coach...... At least that is what he and his dad had to deny..........

Howard and Quick are very similier goalies. Not style wise, but numbers wise. Very close in their careers.

No need to be rude. I don't careif people agree with me or not. That is their right. Those that don't like what I post are always free to not read it. But they do and react. If my posts where not hitting a nerve, they wouldn't post.

Clearly you failed reading. dat has zero reds this year. His number were up from last year. A season where he was also hurt (notice a trend here) and only played 59 games. I didn't even list goals. There were 3 things for each player listed: Games played, total points, and shots. That is it. In every case, using linear regression (stats lingo for you) our slope is linear, strong, negative, with outliers. BTW I just got a B+ in Statistics from GVSU last semester! please try again, but you will fail.

What you are talking about is completely impossible. For example. Our #5 D is either ericsson or Quincy. Both are over 3 million per season. Your buddy Stoll is in the 2.5+ range as a 3rd or 4th liner. The cold hard trueth is, guys in the league for more than 3 years will make 2+ million as bench players.

4. Of course as time moves forward the cap will increase. As the cap goes from 70-72 million I would add that money to the 3rd center. that spot is now budgeted for 6 million. later as the cap adds the next 6 million, I would increase the budgeted amounts for the top 6 RW/LW. each of those 6 positions now make 4 million. After that, all additional cap increases would get divided equally amoung the top 3 C, top 2 D, and the starting goalie.

From what I gather, based on this forum, others and the various PM I get, there is very much a generational divide when it comes to the Wings. Those that are in the late 20's and younger, the ones who grew up during all of the success, seem to think everything is fine, and the good times will never end. Those 30 and older (closer in age to the veterans we talk about) seem to think it is time for some retooling. I for example, am 42. Same age as Nick. I think he should retire. Yet those 15+ years younger thing he should stay for another year or 2. Kinda interesting in some ways.

Several thoughts. 1. regular season scoring doesn't mean a whole lot. Look at the Kings. they were one of the worst all season long. Get better with some moves at the end, but it is their defense that is carrying them. Same for the rangers in the east. Just shutout the Devils today. 2. The 2012 FA class is very thin. But the 2013 class has a ton of potential big young scoring forwards in it, as of today. Some will get extended, others have to prove they are healthy. It might make some sense to bank some money for next year. We need to resing Howard and White-UFA's next year, extend Abby, Helm, and Quincy RFA's this year, and find 1 more good Dman. 3. In many ways I think Holland may be looking at next year as the big retooling year. Thus all the talk of wanting Nick and Hommer back for 1 more season. If they come back for say 6 million 1 more more time, plus the money freed up from Cleary and maybe Filppula-UFA's next season, hope for an increase in the CAP for 2013 and we could be sitting on 12-16 million to add a couple of big time young scoring forwards.

Actually, now that I understand what you where trying to say, it proves my point. If dat was at 125% scoring in 2008 and is at 95% scoring in 2012, that is a 30% DECLINE! Not to mention he is playing fewer and fewer games each year. In 08 and 09 Dat had 97 points. he played 82 games in 08 and 81 games in 09. Now he is down to the mid and lower 70's in games played. So thanks for making my point.

The problem with our "prospects" is, we really don't know if they are. As of today, most are just names. Pick any of the rating sites you want, most rate our prospects with a high of Smith on down. But everyone of those sites gives a strong cya on each guy. For example, Hockeysfuture.com gives Smith a 8.0 rating which is equl to a potentail #2 D. But at the same time they also give him a grade of C, which means "may make it, but could drop 2 points". At 6 points Smith goes from a future #2 to a journeyman #6 or 7 Dman. Everyone else on our list has already made it to the NHL: maursk and nyquist or has yet to play a professional game. Could all of them develop? Yes. Could they all flame out? Yes. Most are 3+ years away from any of us being able to tell, one way or the other. The problem is, we need the help now.

Just wondering the favorite flavor of kool aid? Cherry or strawberry? Either way, there is some massive consumption going on......

Filppula is on the rise. No doubt about it. But 1 can not over come the decline in 5. The other thing with Filppula is he is about our only trade piece. Also a UFA next season. So we need to either move or resign. Either way works for me.

Then don't read and post on it. Pretty simple. I provid proof with real actual numbers and you talk about some % that is tied to what exactly? Some fantasy league % doesn't win games. Goals do. Either by scoring them or preventing them. Thought you would know that.

Are you 12? no it isn't ok. It is against the rules. But does it happen? yes all the time. The HOF's in every sport are filled with guys who broke the rules.