Richdg

As I have mentioned in other threads when I look at our team 5 years down the road I see an organization that needs 3 more top 6 type F's, a true #1 Dman-what team doesn't? And 1 more high end G prospect. That is to just fill up the 23 man roster. To say nothing about prospects in the pipeline. I would love to see us find those players over the next 3 drafts. Overall this is a draft that lacks truely high end prospects. There isn't a true #1 Dman type in the draft at all and only 3 or 4 potential superstars at the F position. Hague is over valued atm because there are so few Dmen with 1st round grades. He is an average skater with very little to offer offensively. He is really good at knocking people over however. A classic crease clearing Dman. If he is there after the 20th pick he is a guy I would love to see us move up for. Trade our 2nd, 3rd, and a late round pick to do so.

Every year I do this and start with a organizational review. This year it is very easy: we need some of everything! That also makes the draft easy: pick the best available each time, positions be damned! Much of this years draft is going to be based on where we pick. If the season ended today we are the 7th worst team in the NHL. But that doesn't mean we pick 7th anymore. We could be 1st or 14th. So here are the names I like in the 1st round based on different draft spots: 1st overall: Nolan Patrick. C/RW 6-3/200 RHed shot. Best player in the draft. Should be a very good C or a great RW. He does it all. A clear top 6 F. 2nd through 6th: Tim Liljegren LD 6-1/190 LHed. Swedish Defender plays a well rounded game. His ceiling is a little higher than Kronwall in his prime, plays better D than Kronwall did, should be a 40+ point guy. Should be a very good 2/3 Dman in the NHL Michael Rasmussen C 6-5/215 LHed. Big fast physical 200ft player that is a great passer and good finisher. The 1 complaint coming into this year was he needed to shoot more. he is doing that with great success. Very good skater for a kid of his size. a clear top 6 F. Picking 7th through 14th: Cullan Foote RD 6-3/200 Rhed shot. he is a better skater than his father, much better offensively than his dad, has a cannon from the point. he is a very good defender but isn't close to being as nasty as his father was, which is a shame. Owen Tippett RW 6-2/205 RHed. Kid has blazing speed and maybe the best slap shot and wrist shots in the draft. He has good size as well and isn't afraid to go anywhere on the ice to get the puck. Needs to work on his targeting still-misses too much. Any of these 5 players will be a good pick for us. There is one difference between the F's and the D's, the F's are all at the point where they can and maybe should be in the NHL next season, but the 2 Dmen need 1-2 years yet to develop. That is the only thing that separates these guys as a group. We took Cholowski a long term D project last year in the first, do we do it again? or is F the way to go? He is running the draft this year is another good question? Does Holland stay?

We are talking 5 years from now. Howard will be long gone. We only have Mrazek.

LOL grabbed the wrong guy off of the list.... hey it was early for me..... Mistakes do happen.... Yes Dekeyser is carrying Green defensively. Green makes mistakes defensively and Dekeyser tries to cover up for those. Now both guys are out of position. Which is a big part of our defensive issues. Now if I am close to being correct on these guys and who knows, we have the following: Top 6 F's: larkin, Mantha, and Svechnikov, need 3 more.... Bottom 8 F's: Abby, maybe Helm, Lil Bert, Smith, Jurco, AA, Sheahan, Teurgen, etc.... All set here. Top 4 Dmen: Need a 1, Dekeyser, Sproul, Cholowski Bottom 3 Dmen: Oullett, Marchenko, and Saarijarvi-all set here. G: Mrazek and ???? Meaning we need to find 5 more players over the next few years. 3 Top 6 F's-prefer a couple of front of net guys and some RHed players, a true #1 Dman in the Weber/Dourghty mode, and a backup G that can play 30ish games per year.

Defense/Goalies.... Dekeyser-he is only 26 and most defensemen don't reach their full potential until their late 20's. He is still improving. He is a solid all around Dman, at worst a 3 maybe a 2. He would be better on the top pair if he didn't have to carry it. Or he can be a really good second pair guy. Either way we win. He is signed long term and has all the skills and measurables you can ask for. Sproul-A cannon for a RHed shot. He has the most offensive potential of all our BLers. If he can be just average defensively then he will get the minutes to be the 40+ point guy he is capable of. Oullett-He is never going to be a great offensive Dman. 20 points is about his max. But he is very good defensively. Currently leads the team at +8! Has a nice little mean streak to his game as well. Not the biggest guy about 6-1/210 but uses every pound and plays very smart. Marchenko-Has all the skills, I wish he was a little meaner. Needs to channel some Vladdy! Ceiling is a 2nd pair guy, floor is a 3rd pair guy. Cholowski-Has some skill but needs to grow. he is currently listed as 6-1/185 on St. Cloud State's website. several of the scouting reports projected him to grow to 6-3 over the next couple of years. After he finishes college and plays a year or 2 in the minors He could become our second best all around Dmen. For SCSU this season he has played in 16 games. He has 1 goal, 9 points and 11 blocks. As a true freshman those are decent numbers. he needs 3-5 more years to develop. He is only 18 atm, so 3-5 years from now puts him in the same develop area that Sproul and Oullett are currently in. Both are 23. Saarijarvi-very small but combative Dman. Good puck mover and skater. But is he good enough to cover for his lack of size? Is he Rafalski or Lebda? Jensen-a depth player. 3rd pair at best/7th Dman. The entire league just passed on him this summer when he was on waivers. Not big or fast enough, looks more like a career AHL guy. We do have good balance between RH/LH on D. Dekeyser, Oullett, and Cholowski are LHed, while Sproul, Marchenko, Saarijarvi, and Jensen are RHed. We need to find a super for the BL soon. Having that true #1 makes everyone else better. The 2017 draft is very weak on high end D prospects. Central Scouting only has 5 Dmen with 1st round grades. Even a guy like Foote-someone I love as a prospect is at best a 2/3, not a 1. Not sure how the 2018 draft looks yet. Keepers: we have Mrazek and everyone else. None of the others to date have really developed. Many still have time so we shall see. No I don't think Couroe (sure I spelled that wrong) is a NHL caliber G. Looks like a career AHLer at best.

A couple of more things about our F's. 1. They are all LHed. No RHed shots to be found. 2. Our current defensive first system is stunting their growth. 3. AA and Larkin need to play C to become good C's. 4. Of the other F's in the system the guys most likely to make it and become NHL players-as checkers are: Helm, Glendening, Lil Bert, Turgeon, and that is about it. I doubt the others ever even make it to the NHL. I hope some prove me wrong.

Green and Lashoff are also hurt. I think Jensen plays tonight.

Now as for the thoughts of this thread. Our young players. I am not going to go through every guy that the RW's own the rights too. Untill they play pro hockey in North America there is no way of even guessing what ones make it. But I will go through some of the names and what I see. Forwards: Mantha and Svechnikov-in many ways these guys are twins. Both have great size, good speed, and are natural goal scorers. In a good offensive system (not one that requires them to come back below the faceoff dot to play D) they are potential 30+ goal per year guys. Both are also good passers. Both should be in the 27-33 goal and 55-65 points per year range. Those are number 1 line type of numbers. Larkin-he is a number 2 C with a chance to be a number 1 C. Good size, great speed, great effort and will score 25-30 goals per year. But will he become a good setup guy/passer? That is the biggest question about him. if he is putting up 25-30 goal seasons with 55-65 points, those are #2 C numbers. Can he get to 25-30 goals and 75+ points per year? AA-He is just a step behind Larkin offensively, but has the same question: Can be become a play maker? 20-25 goals should be the norm. But can he get to 30 assists per year? 20-25 goals with 45-55 points are #3 type numbers. Can he get to 60+ points? Givani Smith-yes he is still in Junior. But he is a guy that if healthy will become a fan favorite over the next 3 years. he is somewhere between McCarty and Abby. Same type of size: 6-2/210, very good speed, and loves to throw his body around. This year (his 3rd in Junior) he is scoring. I think 15-20 goals per year with 40ish points and 120+ PIMs is a reasonable standard for him. Jurco-the mystery player. He has good size, very good speed, plays all 200ft of the ice and has shown the ability to score in the AHL. Watching him play I see a guy that should be a 18-22 goal per year guy. But to date he hasn't done it. Maybe he will, maybe he will not. He has about 1.5 more years to figure it out, otherwise he becomes a bust. There is talent there, now it needs to turn into production. Sheahan-He is and will remain a good 4th line C. Good size, good skater, plays good defense. Has very little offensive talent. if he is used 10-12 mins per game as a checking C he can be a very good player. using him more than that and in roles other than that makes him look bad. STOP DOING IT! Let him be what he is: Checking line C and be happy with it. All the other F's in our system are at best AHL players/checking line grinder types. I don't see any that can become top 6 players. Yes I am sure there will be a surprise development, just like I am sure of one the above guys fails. I will do the defenders/Goalies later.

Yes. 5 years from now is the 2021/2022 season. Neilsson, Abby, and dekeyser are all signed through that season. Neilsson will be 37 that year, Abby will be 34, and Dekeyser will be 31. In 2 years Nyquist's contract will be up for renewal. Will anyone be surprised if he gets resigned? I will not be. Nyquist will be 32 for the 2021/22 season. Tatar is a RFA this summer. Again, is anyone going to be surprised if he is resigned this summer? Nope. Tatar will be 31 in the 2021/22 season. Helm is the most questionable of these guys due to his long injury history. He will be 34 at that point. But his current deal runs through the 2020/21 season and if he is healthy I wouldn't bet against him resigning. If Holland is still the GM for most of the next/all of the next 5 seasons these guys being around is almost 100% guaranteed.

The younger players and their development is all that matter atm. How many make it? Of course we will still have some old vets on the payroll like Neilsson, Abby, and dekeyser. I wouldn't bet agianst Nyquist, Helm, and Tatar all being resigned by then as well......

Of course you do. Holland can do no wrong..... As for Schenn ya, why would we want a big physical Dmen that plays 20 mins per night, is only 27 and is break even in +/- on a bad team like the Yotes..... Instead we can play guys like Lashoff and Jensen, and bad knees Kornwall and bad hip/back Ericsson...... Heck we could have signed him for less than I thought it would take! Terrible idea......

This is where Holland has lost it. I don't care about other teams in the league. Nor should we EVER WANT TO BE JUST ANOTHER TEAM! We are the Red Wings! The Best American franchise in the NHL. Just because others are average or struggling that does not excuse us for doing so. This once again that winning the SC is not the goal. It is a shame what this franchise has been allowed to turn into........

Wrong question. TBH there is no one person to blame and many factors came together to put us here. There real question is: how do we get out of this mess? Maybe the first question is: Is Holland the guy to get us out of this mess? I believe the answer is no.

TB has several of their top 5 players out with injuries. We don't have any top 5 players. When healthy they will get better. We get healthy and we will stay the same or get worse because our coach plays the players in the wrong positions.

Some of us are old enough to remember this dark period of time in our great franchises history. Years where we were lucky to win 25 games per year. Well as much as it pains me to say this, those days have returned. Lots hope it isn't a 10 years long period of pain. I was looking at the standings earlier. The Wings have 9 Regulation/Overtime win this season. The only team with fewer is the Yotes. 1 other team was tied with us. We are now a bottom 3 team in the league. The Darkness has returned......

The player that has had the best career to date that the Red Wings drafted over the last 15 years is Howard. he is a top 10 NHL goalie even though many "fans" want to run him out of town. Before Howard it was Kronwall. Yes franzen was good for a few years but injuries limited him. We had a bumper crop of draftees 20 years ago when we found Datsyuk, Z, and Homer-legit NHL stars. The RW's and Hakeen Andersson have made careers off of picking those 3. Since then we have been poor drafting overall. It is still a bit early to judge Mantha, Larkin, Svechnikov, and Cholowski as draft picks. 2 have yet to play a NHL game and the other 2 look promising but are in no way stars. Our last group of 1st round picks prior to Mantha have been subpar. Kindl-3rd pair filler, Smith-3rd pair filler, Sheahan-4th line filler, McCollum-not even NHL quality. Our second round picks have been better overall. Howard, Nyquist-but his stock is falling fast, Jurco-gettting close to make or break time, Abby-had a solid career to date but not a star, etc....

I think most of us fans agree with this and understand it. Does Holland? That is the question. Based on his moves the last few years I don't think he does. He continues to make moves like we are a team trying to win a Cup when the talent level doesn't have that ability.

I have always considered the day that Mike and Marion bought the Wings the end of the Dead Wings era. Now that they are barley involved with the team that era has returned......

I will defend Blashill just a little. He isn't the one putting together the roster. He can only play the hand he has been dealt. Yes he needs to be better at that. But Blashill isn't teaching Nyquist to fall down everytime someone thinks about checking him, nor is he telling Tatar to shoot over the top of the net and hit the glass everytime, nor is he teaching Sheahan to hit the GK in the belly button each time he shoots. The cold hard trueth is the talent level isn't good enough on this team. The young guys with talent are not yet ready and the old vets are declining at a faster rate than the youth is improving. Blashill most likely gets a 3rd year unless Holland retires/gets fired. The the new GM will hire a new coach.

Since you brought up the 80's, here is the RW's new/old theme song.....

Waiting? Hell no. I have been warning of this since I joined this forum 4/5 years ago. My very first post was called: The Trueth about our Decline. Or something like that, man it has been a long time. its not like I am some hockey genius either. It is common since. You can't bleed off high end talent like we have been, fail to replace them with anything close to the same ability, and expect to remain on top.We have been trending down since 09 and it will be 2-3 more years before we finally bottom out.

Hi Kenny. Nice to see you on this forum. So are we fans really supposed to buy the "sometimes less can be more" position of the front office? We are supposed to be ok with driving away Datsyuk and very soon Z? mark my words by the summer of 2018 he will be gone, but his cap hit will live on! Are we fans supposed to be ok with soon having 12+ million tied up in 3 guys that can't combined score 40 goals: Nyquist, Helm, and Tatar? Are we fans supposed to be ok with the fact that over the last 15 years of drafting you haven't produced 1 bona fide star? (yes there is still hope for the last few picks: Mantha, Larkin, Svechnikov, and in 4 or 5 years Cholowski). The first step is fixing a problem is admitting you have one. There has been nothing coming from the front office that shows they think we have a serious problem. The talk is all about parity, less is more, injuries, effects of the cap, etc....

1/3 of the season and 5 points out. Which is the safer bet? We make that up or triple the points we are behind at the end of the year? I understand that people like to talk points which is how teams make the playoffs. But the points system is also masking how bad we have become. BTW we are not bottomed out yet. It will get worse before it gets better. Mid 80's and we finally were trending back up as a team. Great period of time though........

Watching the replay. First, what the hell is Osgood smoking? Please pass whatever it is. he stated "I expect this to be the RW's best game of the year"... then followed it up with "I expect a playoff atmosphere tonight".... Is he high? How do you have that type of atmosphere with a half empty arena? Everytime you see something that makes sense, like a Mantha-AA-Larkin line you see Sproul and Green on the PP together. Then you have PP untis with no Mantha on them... really? I could go on, but what is the point? OMG, the RW's have pushed me to that point!

I hope the links will work. If not I will try to snip and post the charts. A few years ago I read that 77% of all goals scored in the NHL are scored from within 15ft of the goal. I would think that is still true. The area of the ice we don't go to. Let me put up some heat charts of the RW's vs the NHL scoring leaders over the last 3 years. All the red dots are goals scored. 2015/16: https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/icetrack/?r1Id=4962&r1Year=2015.1&r1eventType='GOAL'&r1type=2&r1strength=EV&r2Id=4958&r2Year=2015.1&r2eventType='GOAL'&r2type=2&r2strength=EV That link should take you to the RW vs the Stars at even strength during the regular season. We had 73 goals the Stars had 101. We took 902 shots the Stars took 1048 (2 per game more). Some of the more interesting shot stats are we rely heavily on snap shots vs slap shots and wrist shots. we also have a really low number of tip-in shots. 2014/15: https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/icetrack/?r1Id=4973&r1Year=2014.1&r1eventType='GOAL'&r1type=2&r1strength=EV&r2Id=4958&r2Year=2014.1&r2eventType='GOAL'&r2type=2&r2strength=EV#2 That link should compare the RW's to the Lightening at even strength during the regular season. Again we were outscored and outshoot badly. We took a low amount of tip-in shots and had far more snap shots than the league leaders. 2013/14: https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/icetrack/?r1Id=4978&r1Year=2013.1&r1eventType='GOAL'&r1type=2&r1strength=EV&r2Id=4958&r2Year=2013.1&r2eventType='GOAL'&r2type=2&r2strength=EV#2 This year the Ducks were the top scoring team. Again we are outshot and out scored. Once again we have a much lower number of tip-in shots and too many snap shots. If these links work it shows pretty clearly we don't go to the slot/front of the net enough and score. That is were goals come from. We don't tip-in enough and we rely far to much on taking the much weaker snap shots over the more powerful slap/wrist shots. PS Of course it didn't work. Was to late last night to fix, so will do it later tonight. In the mean time, if you go to the link then find the other drop down box that says "compare to" scroll down to the Red Wings and it will pop up.