Richdg

TBH I would hold onto our money and not sign any of this years UFA's. As of today, the 2016 UFA class is loaded from top to bottom. Most of the top guys are 30 or under and play for teams with little/no cap room. Meaning many will not be resigned. This is where Kenny needs to focus. Find his 2-3 targets, make trades to get them, and then spend our money/cap space on resigning the guys he picks up.

Dmen tend to come in later rounds. I was reading a story on BR from before the season. They had ranked the top 50 Dmen in the NHL heading into the season. Of those 50, only 20 were 1st round picks. 11 were second rounders, 4 were UDUFA's. As talked about many times here and elsewhere, for whatever the reasons Dmen take longer to develop. Most F will have breakout seasons by 23, but for Dmen it looks more like 26. Look at our last few 1st round picks: Howard-turned out, McCollum-not so much, Kindl-not so much, Smith-not so much. Using Smith as an example, he was drafted 8 years ago. he wasn't a reach and most expected him to be good. he still hasn't reached his full potential yet. In this day and age where you only have 3 years before waivers there does seem to be increased risk in drafting a Dman. Per Smiths' point about needing D, yes we do. Every team does. But we need Dmen that are ready now. we also have 4 top D prospects that need to be in detroit by next septemeber or we run the risk of losing them. With Kronwall and ericsson signed long term, Dekeyser soon to be signed long term, and Smith maybe signed long term, there isn't room for a another Dman right now. Which is why I keep talking about taking a F. We still have holes in or top 14. Not much behind them in terms of numbers either. IMHO we take a F now, maybe next year, and then in 2017 look for a Dman in the first. By then we have contracts ending within the 3 year window.

Yes. Once marchenko went down, Sproul went to the bench. behind Oullett, Marchenko, and Jensen. All 4 only have 1 more year of being waiver exempt.

he is gone. when he starts asking other teams, it says a lot. he could also sit out a year, not like he needs the money. There have been Babs to U of M rumors for a couple of years as well.

Zacha is better than any Dman in this draft. Its not like we don't need #1 C's...... But you are correct in that moving up isn't going to happen.

Little info on Greenway and meloche: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB8QqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fbleacherreport.com%2Farticles%2F2465373-ranking-the-toughest-prospects-in-the-2015-nhl-draft&ei=QddZVcmJO8uisAW2rYHABQ&usg=AFQjCNH8VCEBqG_qjKdZlZTod-CaBYtEqw They are the 5th and 6th toughest prospects in this years draft. Yes please! If we are moving up that far, I would want Pavel Zacha the C. 6-3/210 with the complete package. Think Hanzel with offensive skills. Last year when I did the 2014 draft, he and Miko ratannen (spelling) were 2 guys i loved then. If either were to drop or we move up........

Now if we take the 22 guys I listed for the 2020 team, yes just names on a wall, let's add the 15 draft to it. If we stand pat we have our 1st and dallas's 3rd. Just some options: We could go Greenway 6-5/225 LH LW who would be 22, and then add a Dman like Jonas Siegenthaler 6-2/220 LH D with the 3rd round pick. OR Something like Meloche 6-2/200 RH D in the 1st and then a guy like Forsbacka-Karlsson 6-1/190 RH C in the 3rd-yes a Swedish C that is a strong 2 way player or a big wing like Ahl 6-4/215 LH LW. Either way works to add more talent and depth. agreed. But by 2020 he is 37ish and could very well be working on his golf game full time.

He played 34 out of 37 games. Had a couple of goals and an assist. Lead the team in PIM's with 82. Played LW and D for the Broncos. Helm and Abby are both UFA's next year. Will he be resigned? 3.5-4 million per year for a checking forward? If and it is a big if, we make a trade or 2 this summer he might very well be a guy on the move. Yes Ericsson will be 36,but will he still be around? All those young Dmen become waiver eligable next summer. they have to be on the roster or lost. Some may get moved. It will be interesting to see who stays and who goes. While I like Big E, I also think he is replaceable at a lower cost.

One of the ways I like to look at the draft is to go forward 5 years and look at what our team could be. We never know about trades, UFA's, and of course we hope everyone progresses. If that happens, what does our team look like come the summer of 2020? Here is what I see: LW: Mantha 6-4/225 25 years old Nyquist 5-11/185, 30 Jurco 6-1/205, 27 Bertuzzi 6-1/195, 25 McKee 6-5/255, 26 C: Larkin 6-2/205, 23 AA 6-2/205, 25 Sheahan 6-2/210, 28 Glendening 5-11/195, 31 RW: Tatar 5-10/185, 29 Nastasiak 6-2/205, 25 Pulk 5-11/190, 28 Abby 6-1/210, 33 LHD: Dekeyser 6-3/200, 30 Smith 6-2/210, 31 Oullett 6-1/200, 26 Lashoff 6-3/220, 30 RHD: Sproul 6-4/215, 27 Marchenko 6-3/215, 28 Jensen 6-0/200, 29 G: Mrasek 6-1/190, 28 Paterson 6-1/190, 26 That makes 13 forwards-1 short, 7 D, and 2 G. The only big money contractt hat will still be on the books is Z's. It expires in 2021. I have no idea if he is still playing 5 years from now. All the other big money contracts shoud be gone: Datsyuk, Weiss, Franzen, Kronwall, Ericsson, and Howard. Of course we are 1 f short at this point. McKee is also more a hope than anything and we will need a replacement for Abby at this point as well. Baring a major downturn in our performence were we end up with some top 10 picks, the 18, 19 and 20 drafts will be too close to 2020 to have much impact yet. Most will still be developing in the minors/college. Yes we currently have 9 other F's that have yet to show what they can do: Ehn, Holmstrom, Hudon, Kadiykin, Melen, Nosek, Pope, Turgeon, and Vaharalo. On D there are 5 guys: Hicketts, Marshall, McNulty, Wheaton, and DeHaas. At G there is one: Perry. There are several guys that are at or close to being waiver causlties: Callahan, Fererro, Frk, Tvrdon, Nedemolel, McCullom, and Coreau. Any of these guys could still turn into a player that impacts the 23 man roster posted above. This means the 15, 16, and 17 drafts are were we will find players to impact the above.

either we lose babs and get a 3rd or we lose blashill and should get a third. works either way.

Should. He is in the late 1st early second range. Most mock drafts have him between 24 and 38th.

Here is Greenway: http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=737898

Here is some info on Fischer and Kolesar: http://www.inlouwetrust.com/2015/5/11/8582005/christian-fischer-2015-nhl-draft-prospect-profile https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/jrhockey-buzzing-the-net/nhl-draft-tracker--keegan-kolesar--seattle-thunderbirds-015633257.html

a little on spencer: http://thehockeywriters.com/matt-spencer-the-next-ones-2015-draft-profile/

story on Blackwood: http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=751719

If trading is the plan, and it might be a good one this year, call the BJ's. They have 3 second round picks. Offer our 1st and 3rd for the 3 seconds. Then we could go something like: Blackwood G, Spencer D, and one of Fischer or Kolesar RW's. Blackwood is a tall athletic G. Spencer is a well rounded physical RHed Dman. Fischer and Kolesar are big physical RHed RW's that play good 2 way games.

True Sheahan is not a hitter. He is young and cheap. I still would not bring in Soderberg. Not the guy we need.

Larkin signing or not has nothing to do with babcock. Just because he signs doesn't mean he is in Detroit. The chance of him earning a top 4 C spot (Datsyuk, Z, Sheahan, Glendening, helm, AA, and Nosek are all already pros) is small. So he most likey is in GR for 1 or 2 years. Yes he should be good in a couple of years. A Future Kesler type C, which we need. But to think our HC is going/staying based on some prospect? That is very very thin......

Great! Might be crazy to cross though..... 3 options: You make it accross-the goal, you breakdown and get towed-an assit, or you get into an accident-the fight! Just to think some wouldn't want him on our team today...........

The past couple of years we have struggled in 5 on 5 hockey. We have had a pretty good power play and not bad on the PK. We have been in the desired 110+ when you combine the 2 %'s together. But in 5 on 5 we haven't been very good. Using the advanced metrics (I am not the biggest fan of such things, but they do help rank things) here are our forwards and how they rank amoung all F with 750 mins of 5 on 5 time: Cole 46-injured and UFA Datsyuk 54 Tatar 118 Abby 136 Z 163 Nyquist 166 Sheahan 175 http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=201415&sit=5v5&type=individual&teamid=0&pos=forwards&minutes=750&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC Now the question is why? Then the follow up is, how do we improve? The why of course is opinion. Mine is we don't have anyone with super skills. IE No one with the speed that scares and burns, or no one with the power and strength to scare. Both work. Now Cole is gone. That is why I added Sheahan as the 6th. One of the ways to improve is to not have him as a top 6 forward. Same with Helm. Both have played in the top 6 at times this year. Heck I still don't think Abby should be in our top 6. We also don't get enough out of our D. Using the same standards, here is how our Dmen rank for 1000 mins played of 5 on 5 time: Dekeyser 27 KFQ 67 Kronwall 70 Ericsson 107 Now in simple math there should be 180 top 6 forwards and 120 top 4 Dmen. Of course many teams don't really have 6 real top 6 forwards or 4 true top 4 Dmen. A few teams have more than 6 F's and/or 4 top 4 D's. Just using these numbers one could say we have no #1 Dman, a #2 in Dekeyser, a #3 in Kronwall, and a #4 in Ericsson. That isn't horrible. Of course finding a true #1 is very hard to do. The F group is in some ways worse. Only Datsyuk is a clear top line F, when healthy. Tatar is a second line guy. Nyquist, Z, and Abby are more borderline guys for a second line. Sheahan really is a 3rd line guy. The plus side is these guys are very good on the PP. Datsyuk was 2nd in the NHL on the PP. Z was 16, Nyquist 22, Tatar 35, Abby 88th, and Sheahan was 133. This tells me that at best we have 4 guys that are legit top 6 forwards on the team. Not a real surprise. many of us have wondered why Abby is playing in the top 6. This then means we need 2 top 6 forwards. Either prospects that step up or UFA/trades. This means we need 3 primetime players that are very costly to pick up. Yikes. The good news is, we don't have to do it all at once. We do have to do it by the time the 2017/18 season starts. That is the season after Datsyuk's contract expires. Of course by then Z and Kronwall will be about done as well. That makes 6 big time players needed over the next 3 off summers. 2 Dmen and 4 forwards. Had to edit for a math error. Need 4 F, not 3.

Yes, there are no static stats. Things change every year. Age, injuries, defense performance all impact things. But you also every year look at what worked and what didn't. Trying to keep the former and fix the later. This is what every team in every sport does every year. Now lets take the ranking and covert into some real numbers. Datsyuk. For the past five seasons, 2011-15, here are his average points per 60 minutes played: 2.49, 2.35, 2.07, 1.94, 2.01. Thats about a 20% drop off over that 5 year span. Z same years: 2.04, 2.52, 1.55, 2.45, 1.45. There is no real pattern with him. He is up and down and all over the place. Abby same years: 1.42, 1.53, 1.13, 1.53, 1.58. 2013 was an odd year for him, but his is pretty consitant showing some slight improvement. Tatar, only 3 seasons 13, 14, 15: 2.10, 2.14, 1.70. Still early in his career, but it seems like 2 points per 60 minutes is his norm. Nyquist, only 4 seasons 12-15: 2.28, 1.03, 2.96, 1.44. Inconsistant to date. But matches Z's up and downs. Going from 1.5 points per 60 to 2.5 points per 60 from year to year. Now if the past predicts the future, 2016 should be better 5 on 5. Z and Nyquist seem to have better years in the even number years. As for replacements and the timeline, I bet I am not far off. Datsyuk has 2 years left and will be 39 at that point. Does he return? I would bet no. Z and Kronwall will both be 36/37 in 2 years, how much will they have left? Ericsson not far behind that. Again that is just replacing guys currently on the roster. A roster that can barely make into the PO's and loses in the 1st round. We haven't done anything to ADD talent and become a better team at this point. We think that the group of Marchenko, Oullett, and Sproul should produce 1 or 2 guys that might be able to replace Kornwall and Ericsson. Same at F. We hope that Mantha, Larkin, and AA can produce 2 players to replace Datsyuk and Z's production. But there are no sure things. Maybe all of those prospects make it, maybe none do. That is the great unkown. What isn't an unknown is we need an injection of talent. We need guys that will keep our PP and PK solid and improve our 5 on 5 play.

There are 4 UFA Gmen of interest: Green, Franzon, Petry, and McQuaid. All 4 are under 30 (26-29), all are RHed, and all bring different things. Green is the best offensively a 45 point per season guy but the weakest defensively. Franzon is the next best offensively 30-35 points most years and plays physical. Petry is the youngest, is a 25-30 point guy on good teams and is the best skater. McQuaid is a stay at home guy and the most physical of the bunch. All could help us out depending on the money and term. A thought is, how about 2 of them? Right now we have 3 decent to good LHed veteran defensemen: Dekeyser, Kronwall, and Ericsson. we have several guys that could be the 7th guy: Lashoff, KFQ, and Kindl. It seems like Marchenko is going to be up next year. That leaves 2 spots open. if we brought in 2 of these UFA's-I know a rare thing, that would give us 3 pairs of D each balanced out R/L. We could have something like this: Dekeyser-Green Kronwall-Franzon Ericsson-marchenko Lashoff OR Dekeyser-Franzon Kronwall-McQuaid Ericsson-Marchenko Kindl OR You get the idea..... Options and balance is the point. That would also then free up assets like Smith, Kindl, KFQ, etc.... to be used to make moves to improve the forward group. Yes Phanuef is the hot name right now and was at the deadline. But TBH while I like him as a player, he really doesn't fit our needs. he is another LHed D. If Tor wasn't trying to dump his contract, he wouldn't even be on our radar as a target.

There is no perfect stat. But you do realize that this year Hoffman was 5th in the NHL in goals scored during 5 on 5 play right? That is pretty darn good. That is also the topic of this thread. Not who is the best player overall, or on the PP or on the PK. It is about improving our 5 on 5 play offensively. So yes Hoffman under those conditions was very good this year. Better than anyone on our team.

That is what I was thinking a couple of pages ago. Try to move back 10 spots or so and add a 2nd round pick. The difference in talent from the 15th through the 50th pick is very small.

Little long in the tooth, but for 1 or 2 years, sure.