Richdg

Of course for Helm to have trade value, he has to be healthy and playing. But he isn't. This is why trying to find ways to improve this team are tricky. bert, sammy, cola, and q just don't have much value via trades. But most/all sould be replaced.

Last thought for tonight. Let's say we can't move Franzen and we plug him back in on the top line at LW. Then the planets align correctly and we sign sanguinetti at 3 million per. That leaves us with 2 holes to fill: C and RW, and we have 13.7 million left under the cap. We now have 2 packages to use for trades. package 1 is Ericsson and tatar and package 2 is helm and Quincey. Others like Almquivst and McCollum can be included if need be. Those 2 packages should be able to find us a quality RW and C, while leaving some cap room left over for 2014 when datsyuk, eaves, Gus, and Cola also leave.

So, now let's fast forward to June 30th. Draft is done and UFA season is about to begin. We have resigned Howard, Brunner, Smith, Kindl, and Nyquist. We have bought out Sammy and put bert on LTIR. We are setting aside Ericsson, Quincey, Franzen, and helm for possible trades. if we do that we have 4 openings: 1 LW, 1 C, 1 RW, 1 Dman, and 20.6 million to spend, once trades are made. This would be our pre UFA/trade lineup: CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER My Custom Lineup FORWARDS trade UFA ($0.000m) / Pavel Datsyuk ($6.700m) / trade UFA ($0.000m) Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083m) / trade UFA ($0.000m) / Damien Brunner ($3.000m) Joakim Andersson ($1.000m) / Justin Abdelkader ($1.800m) / Gustav Nyquist ($1.000m) Riley Sheahan ($0.900m) / Cory Emmerton ($0.533m) / Jordin Tootoo ($1.900m) Drew Miller ($1.000m) / Patrick Eaves ($1.200m) DEFENSEMEN Niklas Kronwall ($4.750m) / Jakub Kindl ($1.500m) Brendan Smith ($1.500m) / trade UFA ($0.000m) Danny DeKeyser ($1.350m) / Brian Lashoff ($0.725m) Carlo Colaiacovo ($2.500m) / GOALTENDERS Jimmy Howard ($5.000m) Jonas Gustavsson ($1.500m) OTHER Buyout: Mikael Samuelsson ($0.000m) Buyout: Todd Bertuzzi ($0.625m) Buyout: Johan Franzen ($0.000m) RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (0.142% of upper limit) Darren Helm ($0.021m—1.0%) Kyle Quincey ($0.038m—1.0%) Jonathan Ericsson ($0.033m—1.0%) ------ CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter) (these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion) SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $44,658,171; BONUSES: $1,010,000 CAP SPACE (26-man roster): $20,651,829 Franze is listed under the buyouts due to capgeek. if we can't move him, then buy him out if need to, or keep him untill next summer. Now we have some pieces to move and improve the team. package 1 centered around Ericsson. Package 2 centered around Helm. Package 3 centered around Franzen/Quincey.

The last position of want is a RH shooting Dman. Signing one would allow a guy like Ericsson to be moved. Right now we have 8 Dmen signed for next season: Kronwall, Quincey, Ericsson, Colaviaco, Dekeyser, Kindl, Smith, and Lashoff. All are LHed. yes Quincey should be moved, but he is not a guy that is going to bring a big return. Ericsson however is. Between the 2, they make 7 million per year, and both are UFA's in another year or so. if both are moved we need another Dman. keep Cola as the 7th and use kronwall and the 4 kids in your top 6. After this season Cola leaves as a UFA and more kids are ready at GR: Nicastro and maybe Sproul. So the farm system is ready to replace departures. All that being said, there are 2 UFA Dman that are of interest. Anton babcuk (spelling) of Calgary. he is 28, 6-5/200 and a RH shooter. Bobby Sanguinetti of Car. is the other one. he is 25, 6-3/190 shoots RHed. Of the 2, I like Sanguinetti. He is averaging 1.5 hits per game this year and does have some offensive skill. I would think a 5 year 15 million contract would get him. if were able to land him,we would have a D that looks like this: Kronwall-Kindl Smith (offensive)-Dekeyser (defensive) Lashoff-sanguinetti Colavaico Then like I mentioned, next summer you let Cola walk and replace him with Nicastro. Summer of 2015 if Sproul is ready, then another player can be moved for more help somewhere else.

If bert i on the LTIR his salary doesn't count. Other than that all other ways do. Even if a guy retires. But bert's 2 million/1 year left isn't really a problem. Nor is sammy's 3 million/1 year left. The real problems are yet to be seen: the long term deals to franzen, Z, and kronwall. Their caps are here for 7/8 more years. A time when all will be 40+ years old. Between the 3 of them it is almost 15 million per year. So if all 3 retire after say 4 or 5 years, we will be wasting 15 million per year for a couple of years. but that is down the road a bit.

Just thinking out loud for a minute here, haven't heard or read anything. Holland joked for many years that once Nick retired, he was going to do so. His close friend and long time Assistant GM Nill is the choosen succesor. keeping those 2 things in mind and today, it isn't to much of a stretch to beleive Holland may be retiring as GM this year. The last thing Holland would want to do to his friend is set him up to fail. Moving pieces and not having it work, would fall on Nill's head not Holland's. Other than a couple of UFA's that could leave/should leave, what else will chnage between now and summer time? Nothing. This way Holland can walk away with the team in an ok place. Full set of draft picks, not to many big decisions to be made, cap space to spend money on, and a team still capable of going to the playoffs. Now the team is in a decent place for the next GM to come in and do things his way. Again, just my thought. But it would explain things if true.

Now, after all of that, there were/are 20 players in the NHL that are equal to or better than the 3 we need to replace, and are under 30. There were/are a few more that I didn't include. Guy like Perry and getzlaf-they just resigned and can't be moved. Of course not all 20 of the guys I listed are available, and in most cases would be expensive to get. But we need to find the way. Between Bert, Sammy, and Franzen, they average 6-2.75/223 in size, and for their careers they combine to produce 67 goals over every 82 games. They combine to average out to 4 hits per game as well.

Last guy to talk about today is Franzen. Who is the Mule? He is a 33 year old 6-3/225 LH shooting forward. Can play all 3 spots. he averages 26 goals every 82 games played for his career. He is a 1 hit per game guy. I am going to compare him to C's-position of need. Who are the under 30 C's in the league that put up equal or better numbers? UFA's: none. weak class. Others: David Backus STL. 28 years old 6-3/225. He averages 22 goals per 82 games and is a 3 hit per game guy. Jordan Staal Car. 24 years old. 6-4/220. He averages 23 goals per 82 games and is a 3 hits per game guy. Martin Hanzal Pho. 26 years old. 6-6/236. He averages 14 goals per 82 games, but that is starting to trend upwards. he is also a 2 hits per game guy. Anze Kopitar LAK. 25 years old. 6-3/225. He averages 28 goals per 82 games. he is a 1.5 hits per game player. Jamie Benn Dal. 23 years old. 6-2/205. He averages 25 goals per 82 games and is good for 1.5 hits per game. Patrick Berglund Stl. 24 years old 6-3/220. He averages 22 goals per 82 games played. he is good for 1 hit per game. That is once again getting close to the bottom of the pit. The others are over 30, don't score or don't hit.

so being average is ok? in fact you can be less than average and make the playoffs. That is a pretty bad measuring stick. 53% of all teams make it. Just to compare, in NCAA men's basketball only the top 20% make it. Making the PO's in the NHL and NBA isn't saying much. But it does make a lot on money. Kinda like going to a bowl game in college football. Everyone goes........

Now let's do the same thing with Bertuzzi. Who is Bert? He is a 38 year old 6-3/230 LH shooting LW. Over his career he has averaged 23 goals per 82 games. This number has of course been dropping over the last 5 or 6 years, the time he has played for us. In his prime Bert averaged 31 goals per 82 games. he has also been an active checker. About 1.5 hits per game for his career. So, once again, who are the under 30 LW's with the same abilities? UFA's: Viktor Stalberg CHI. 6-3/210 27 years old. He has averaged 18 goals per 82 games for his career, but is trending upward. Has a 1 hit per game average. Others: Evander Kane Win. 21 years old, 6-2/200. Averages 25 goals per 82 games. Good for 3 hits per game. Milan Lucic Bos. 24 years old. 6-4/220. Averages 20 goals per 82 games. Good for 3 hits per game. Nikolai Kulemin 26 6-1/225 Tor. Averages 18 goals per 82 games. Good for 2 hits per game. Alex Ovechkin Wash. 27 6-3/230. Averages 50 goals per 82 games and is good for 2 hits per game. Andrew Ladd Win. 27 6-3/205. Averages 21 goals per 82 games and is a 2 hit per game player. James Neal Pit. 25 years old. 6-2/210. Averages 31 goals per 82 games and is good for 1.5 hits per game. James van Riemsdyk Tor. 6-3/200. Averages 22 goals per 82 games. Is good for 1+ hit per game. That pretty much finishes the list. Most of the others are over 30, don't score, or don't hit.

Ok, let me focus on the who we need to replace side a bit. As I mentioned before we have 3 must improve spots and a 4th would like to improve spot. We have to replace/improve on Sammy, Bert, and Franzen-in that order. While Franzen has his worts, at least he still makes it to the ice most of the time. bert and Sammy haven't and are much older. The 4th spot that I would like to improve, is 1 good RH Dman. Finding one would also open up 1 of our other Dmen for trade. So who is Samuelsson? He is a 37 year old 6-2/215 RH shooting RW that averages 18 goals for every 82 games over his career. He also has averaged a little over 1 hit per game for his career. he makes 3 million per year. That is what we need to replace/improve on. Ideally we would be looking at guys that are under 30 years of age than can produce those results or better for roughly the same money. Now what guys in the league can do that? What would it cost to get them? Here are some options: UFA's: Nathan Horton RW Boston. 6-2/230, 28 in May, he averages 28 goals for every 82 games played for his career. He averages just under 1 hit per game for his career. I would think that to sign him we are talking 5 years or more and 30+ million. David Clarkson RW NJD. 6-1/200, just turned 29. He averages 19 goals per 82 games in his career, but has really improved the last 2 seasons. He is also a 2 hits per game guy over his career. I would expect him to get a contract of the same type of length and money as Horton. 5 years + 30 million +. Others: Chris Stewart RW STL. 6-2/230 and 25 years old. He averages 26 goals per 82 games for his career. He is also a hit per game + type of player. Dustin Brown RW LAK. 6-0/212 and is 28. He averages 23 goals per 82 games. He is a 3 hits per game player. Wayne Simmonds RW Philly and is 25 this summer. He averages 18 goals per 82 games for his career. he is a 1+ hits per game guy. Bobby Ryan RW Ana and is 26. He averages 32 goals per 82 games for his career. he is a 1.5 hit per game player. That about covers the list for RH shooting RWers, that score more than Sammy, hit more than Sammy, and are 28 or younger.

The hard part of course is finding the right pieces to trade. yes we all would love to take 2 or 3 minor leaguers and pick up an AS power forward. but that isn't the way things work. So where are we strong-long term and what or how many pieces can go. Right now we have great depth on D and at G. Look at the D: Kronwall, Ericsson, Smith, Kindl, Dekeyser, lashoff, Quincey, Colaviaco, Nicastro, Sproul, Oullett, deHaas, merchecnko. That is 13. We can only carry 7 and yes we need 2-3 in the minors for depth. The same thing at G. Howard, Gus, Marzek, the new kid from NMU, and peterson. That makes 5. Now some have good/great trade value. Some do not. So what pieces do we keep and which ones do we put into a package? Yes we all would like to move Quincey and free up his cap hit-3.75 million per year. But does Q alone get us a top notch forward? No. takes more than him. Do younger guys with Quincey become enough? maybe.

For the guy that said Filppula is good for 25 goals a year, no he isn't he has never scored 25 goals in a season, last year was his career high-23, the first and only time he has scored over 20 goals. Good 2 way player, yes. Good passer yes. but Filppula is not a goal scorer. Which after all is our problem. When we get right down to it, the issues with this team are our top 6 forwards. we have plenty of bottom 6 guys: Abdelkader, Andersson, Sheahan, Tootoo, Emmerton, Eaves, and helm. All signed for next year. That is 7 guys that have good speed, good defensively, and some grit. it is the top 6 that is full of questions. datsyuk, Z and brunner are fine. But they need some size and toughness to go with them, and that is where our down fall is. Bert, sammy, and Franzen are just not cutting it. replacing them with tatar and nyquist is a disaster waiting to happen. I can't want to see the legion of threads next year when players start taking liberties with dat and Z because there is no one on their lines to protect them. I can hear the whining, crying, and b1tching now......

O worked all day. How did Dekeyser and Sheahan loo in todays game? Just be reading the box score-shot pretty even and a 1-0 lose looks like it was a close tight game, playoff type of game. Did the kids do good? bad?

Now like I said, how to change becomes an issue. The UFA market is weak, which will become the norm. Everyone is going to resign their stars and the few that make it will be over priced. In fact there are only 3 UFA's in this years class that interest me: Stalberg of Chi, Clarkson of NJD, and Horton of the Bruins. But each has some issue with them. Clarkson just turned 29. yes he is a rough and tough RW that scores. But is he worth a 7 year contract? 4 or 5 years then yes I am interested. 7 years? Do we need another guy signed untill he is 36+? Horton has been very good. But he has also had 2 major concussions. yes he has stayed healthy this year. But paying 5-6 million for a guy with injury issues is risky. Stalberg has the fewest risks, but has also scored the fewest goals. he is a 20 goal per year guy, not a 30 goal per year guy like the other 2. Now the UFA market can and will grow. Several teams are cap tight and going to have to make some tough decisions this summer. Everyone has the buyouts and those expire soon. But, most of the guys that will get dumped are going to be over 30. It will be interesting tosee how this develops. Trades. Always a hot topic and so much fun. There are/were many guys that were rumored to be available this past deadline that didn't move. here is a list of guys that I remember and we should have some interest again: Stafford RW 27 Buf Couturier C 21 Philly McBain D 25 Car Kulemin LW 26 Tor Ryan RW 25 Ana Now many are expecting those guys to be moved this summer. The question becomes what can we puck together to get a couple of these guys? If tatar, nyquist, and Calle are in the minors or moved, we have 12.3 million to spend and 3 holes: 1 LW, 1 RW and 1 C. I added McBain to the list because he is a young RH shooting Dman that would fit the group of Smith, Kindl, Lashoff, and Dekeyser. If a guy like him was added plus we have Kronwall, maybe Ericsson could be moved. But like I said, this is where things get fun and some creativity is needed.

DD plaued a great game, and got better as the game moved along. He played on the PK late in the 3rd. By the end of the game he was even joining the rush a couple of times. yes he didn knock a couple of guys down in front of the net. But being the new kid he helped them back up after the whistle. Overall, great 1st game. Should be a long time star on the D.

Jurco is only 21, and isn't ready yet. 25 points in 67 games at GR is not NHL caliber. he needs at least 1 more year to grow and improve his game. Cleary had better not be back, unless it is as the 13th/14th forward because we make some moves with other players.

But Holland didn't buil the first 2 SC teams. Jimmy D did. 97 and 98 were all Jimmy D. 02 was the first ith Holland fully in chrge nd responsable for the team. Which was in fact lagely the 97/98 teams minus a couple of pieces. Now Holland gets full credit for the 08 team and 09 team. But he also gets full credit for the last3 seasons-2 second round loses and a first round loss, with what looks like anothershort PO run this year, if we in fact make it.

Now things are tougher. Do we risk not resigning Filppula? His production and rumored contract demands say no. But and this is soemthing none of us know right now, is 13/14 datsyuk's last year? Knowing the answer to that question ties to Filppula in my mind. All of our C's are small. I would like to see at least 1 big C. This team is also very very LHed. No right handed shoots on D at all, and only 2 RHed shooters in the forward group: Brunner and Tootoo. Also, like I mentioned, the top 2 lines are very very small. There should be at least 1 big body on each of those lines.

Ok now some thoughts and where and how to improve. Yes there are a few UFA's that could help, we have some guys in the minros that can help, so we need to clear out roster spots and cap. We have 2 amnesty buyouts, so use those. I would buy out Sammy-an easy choice and Franzen which is the smartest long term contract to buyout. His productions is dropping like a stone and has 7 more years on his contract. Get rid of both, which frees up 7 million per year. I also buyout/LTIR Bert. I don't think he will ever be able to play again, at least not for more than 2 or 3 games before another back issue comes up. That frees up another 1.4 million-if capGeek has the buyout rules right. I also trade Quincey, freeing up another 3.75 million. Then call up Tatar, Nyquist, Calle. This fills the roster out and leaves 9.9 million to spend, to either upgrade players/players are not ready. CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER My Custom Lineup FORWARDS Gustav Nyquist ($1.000m) / Pavel Datsyuk ($6.700m) / Tomas Tatar ($0.840m) Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083m) / Calle Jarnkrok ($0.900m) / Damien Brunner ($3.000m) Joakim Andersson ($1.000m) / Valtteri Filppula ($5.000m) / Justin Abdelkader ($1.800m) Riley Sheahan ($0.900m) / Darren Helm ($2.125m) / Jordin Tootoo ($1.900m) Cory Emmerton ($0.533m) / Patrick Eaves ($1.200m) DEFENSEMEN Niklas Kronwall ($4.750m) / Jonathan Ericsson ($3.250m) Jakub Kindl ($1.500m) / Brendan Smith ($1.500m) Danny DeKeyser ($1.350m) / Brian Lashoff ($0.725m) Carlo Colaiacovo ($2.500m) / GOALTENDERS Jimmy Howard ($5.000m) Jonas Gustavsson ($1.500m) OTHER Buyout: Mikael Samuelsson ($0.000m) Buyout: Johan Franzen ($0.000m) Buyout: Todd Bertuzzi ($0.625m) RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (0.059% of upper limit) Kyle Quincey ($0.038m—1.0%) ------ CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter) (these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion) SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $55,719,417; BONUSES: $1,330,000 CAP SPACE (24-man roster): $9,910,583 Now this all fits andthere is a bunch of money left over. But man are the top 2 lines tiny! Plus calle will not be ready yet.Now the hard part, getting better from here.

Kindl has been in many ways our best Dman all year. he has played well. Kronwall has played better offensively, but worse defensively. Ericsson better defensively, but not as good offensively. Those have been our top 3 all year. Smith has made a bunch oif mistakes, but you expect that from a rookie. lashoff has been very good defensively, but is not a threat with the puck. I am looking forward to dekeyser a lot.

Moving to the east will present issues to us long term. When we play a LAK or even the blues now, it is 1 tough physical game out of maybe 10. In the east it will be 6 or 7 out of ten. It will wear our smaller players down. I expect us to start out well next year, bringing more speed to the game than most teams in the east can handle. But once the pounding sets in and the nagging injuries came about-which those will, we will have issues. Big guys with nagging injuries are still big. Speed guys with nagging injuries are targets. That is where thigns will matter. No we are not going to get "beat up" by every team dropping the gloves on us 5 times a game. that isn't the issue. It is the long term wear and tear of playing in a more physical conference.

Mr. I isn't being cheap in any way shape or form. Last summer he was PERSONNALLY trying to land parise and Suter. Fle out to get them,wined and dined them, they choose to go home. Nothing wrong with that. This fall we will be within 2 million of the cap, if not closer just by resigning our own UFA/RFA players. Holland did try to get O'reilly, but he failed in his attempt-which will haunt us. Mr. I is not nor has he ever been the problem. Every time Holland and DD have gone to him and asked for money, they get it. he is the best type of owner. he stays out of the way untill the GM asks him to get involved.

The yotes traded away some vets, added picks, called up some kids, and got better. Hmmmmm.......

http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/2013/04/red_wings_gm_ken_holland_made.html Jagr, Pommy, Torres, jayBo, Kulikov. 2 LHed Dmen, 2 F over 30, and a RHed sniper. rebuilding? or going for it? Seems like both, which doesn't work.