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Everything posted by eva unit zero
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What rationalized it? Kopecky's TTOI is about half O'Sullivan's, as is his production. Go ahead, look up the numbers. What I was trying to to was include the separations between ES/PP/SH TOI because if a player scores 2 points in 20 minutes of PP time, how does that affect his overall numbers? And GST...you do realize that "top-six forward" O'Sullivan has yet to hit the 40 point mark despite playing more minutes than Datsyuk, in the role of an offensive forward, on the power play, and with linemates who were offensively capable? O'Sullivan played more than 3 minutes per game on the PP for LA, on average over 63 games. Yet he only has 8 PP points. That sounds like an huge failure on his part. For comparison? Jiri Hudler has played a comparable amount of PP time and scored 25 points. Edward Purcell has scored 4 points in only 56 minutes, a much quicker rate of PP scoring than O'Sullivan. O'Sullivan was seventh among the team's forwards in power play points despite being top six among forwards in PP ice time. So I picked a forward who, like Kopecky, played both center and wing who seemed to have similar numbers to Kopecky after accounting for the differences in total ice time. Kopecky is much better defensively and physically than O'Sullivan, and what I have done is projected each player's numbers out to a set total at ES/PP/SH. I could have just used O'Sullivan's numbers and that seems like it would have circumvented your argument by not taking away any ice time from O'Sullivan.
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Natural centers on the Detroit roster currently, if you include Helm: Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Hudler, Filppula, Draper, Kopecky, Helm. -Zetterberg we all know the story there. -Dats has played mostly center in his career. -Hudler played only center until after he was drafted, and was drafted as the center with the most pure skill in his draft year but was expected to drop out of the top ten due to size. In Grand Rapids at one point he played on a line with Kopecky where the team's coach would sometimes have Hudler centering it and sometimes have Kopecky centering it. He was converted mainly to wing after he was put on the roster full-time due primarily to his size. -Filppula has played mostly center, while playing some wing. -Draper has played some wing in the past in his prime to be placed on one of the top two lines, but moving him away from center is rarely justifiable due to the fact he is one of the top five faceoff men in the NHL. -Kopecky has played primarily wing since the AHL due to his chemistry there with Hudler, who played more center on that line, and his need to improve his faceoff abilities. Kopecky also possesses a big body and is willing to hit often, which will get him in the lineup as a checking winger as the Wings have a logjam at center. Kopecky is an offensively talented player who is still recovering from a severe knee injury, so that may also affect his ability to play center as easily as he can play wing. -Helm's willingess and ability to hit often and well will get him in the lineup, much like Kopecky. The logjam at center will get Helm moved to wing also, as it has in the past. As for Franzen, however, he is not a natural center. Franzen was converted to center in the Swedish league. After he joined the Red Wings, he converted back to wing due to Detroit's logjam at center. This despite his recently displayed skill at taking faceoffs. Now, whether you think a player has to be a natural center to play center, despite the fact Franzen is good on faceoffs and can play center, that is up to you. I personally think "natural" is not a requirement.
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Interesting comparison: Recently traded "top-six" forward Patrick O'Sullivan. ESTOI: 886:03 SHTOI: 140:28 PPTOI: 193:49 63GP, 14g-23a-37pt, +1, 16PIM, 201 Sht, 7.0%, 60 Hits, 29BkS, 100MsS, 60Gv, 31Tk, 18FoW, 22FoL, FO%45.0 ES: 11g-17a-28pt, PP: 2g-6a-8pt, SH: 1g-0a-1pt Kopecky's stats this season ESTOI: 584:10 SHTOI: 20:20 PPTOI: 19:44 62GP, 5g-12a-17pt, +3, 36PIM, 82 Sht, 6.1%, 91 Hits, 11BkS, 23MsS, 5Gv, 12Tk, 26FoW, 25FoL, FO%51.0 ES: 3g-11a-14pt, PP: 1g-1a-2pt, SH: 1g-0a-1pt Now, given those stats, let's project what each player might have done if both played the average of their two ice times with no difference in their production. O'Sullivan: ESTOI: 735:07 (11:40 per game) SHTOI: 80:24 (1:17 per game) PPTOI: 106:47 (1:42 per game) 63GP, 11g-17a-28pt, +1, 12PIM, 152 Sht, 7.0%, 45 Hits, 22BkS, 76MsS, 45Gv, 23Tk, 14FoW, 18FoL, FO%43.8 ES: 9g-14a-23pt, PP: 1g-3a-4pt, SH: 1g-0a-1pt Kopecky: ESTOI: 735:07 (11:51 per game) SHTOI: 80:24 (1:18 per game) PPTOI: 106:47 (1:43 per game) 62GP, 13g-19a-32pt, +4, 54PIM, 121 Sht, 10.7%, 134 Hits, 16BkS, 34MsS, 7Gv, 18Tk, 38FoW, 37FoL, FO%50.7 ES: 4g-14a-18pt, PP: 5g-5a-10pt, SH: 4g-0a-4pt After projecting their numbers, it showed that Kopecky's numbers would be considerably better in many areas. Does this mean that a team like LA or Edmonton would use Kopecky in their top six? Also of note is that the above projected numbers for Kopecky are better than both "big" Edmonton wingers Ales Kotalik and Dustin Penner's with comparable even-strength time, slightly more shorthanded time, and much less power play time. And this is based on time spent mainly with Kris Draper and Kirk Maltby. Imagine what the "projected" numbers might look like if he were playing on a line with two of capable scorers and/or playmakers in Hudler/Franzen/Cleary/Samuelsson/Filppula/Leino all year.
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The changes I made had more to do with having Hudler and Dats on the same line when the Wings have so many capable goal scorers. And more accurately, rather than "those are the lines I would go with" I should have said "those are the lines I would use based on your post." I'm more a fan of this lineup: Datsyuk-Zetterberg-Holmstrom Cleary-Hudler-Hossa Franzen-Filppula-Samuelsson Leino/Maltby/Helm-Draper-Kopecky I would go with one of the two following groups of defense pairings. The group of four who are competing for the same spot are listed in the order in which I would be willing to play them: Lidstrom-Rafalski Kronwall-Stuart Ericsson/Chelios/Meech/Lebda-Lilja Lidstrom-Stuart Ericsson/Chelios/Meech/Lebda-Rafalski Kronwall-Lilja If injuries occur, the only pairing I would not be willing to ice at the same time is Lebda/Meech; they're the two worst defensive defensemen on the team. As far as goaltending...Osgood/Conklin.
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If Kopecky keeps up his current pace from his past six games over the final 17 games, he'll finish the year with 9g-11a-20pt, +17, 18PIM, 60 shots, 15.0% over those 17 games and his stats over the entire year will be: 79GP, 14g-23a-37pt, +20, 56PIM, 142SHT, 9.9% That's better than Franzen's numbers the past two seasons, for those keeping track. And for those keeping track, Kopecky is over two years younger than Franzen. For those who have said that Kopecky is too old to be 'just coming on' as a power forward, btw...I present Johan Franzen. At Kopecky's age, he was considered by many to be less than Kopecky is now. So be patient with Kopecky, especially given what Kopecky has been able to do while still recovering from a severe injury.
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The two big changes I would make to your lineup are to: 1) Swap Hudler and Holmstrom. Datsyuk is the Wings' best playmaker, Hudler is the second best. Zetterberg and Hossa are the two best goal scorers on the team, Homer and Franzen are the two best net-front presences. Put Hudler on the second line with Z and Franzen as the playmaker for those two, and we have two lines with somewhat similar style and skill level, with the differences being Datsyuk's advantage in skill over Hudler and Franzen's advantage in defensive, physical, and zone play over Holmstrom, and Homer's advantage in net-front play over Franzen. 2) I don't know if Ericsson has earned himself a spot ahead of the other guys on the roster outright...he has played well for two games but within the past few weeks there have been at least two games where Meech was the team's best defenseman for a game. Other than those changes, I would go with that same lineup.
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Nice timing, uk. As possibly the only LGW member who has supported Kopecky since before he played a single NHL game, I can say that development into a second line power forward is something I was expecting. I wouldn't say he is there yet, but he is well on his way the way he has been playing. Kopecky has been consistently improving all areas of his game over the past few years when he has been healthy, which cannot necessarily be said of all team members. He is one of the few forwards who can play center or either wing, and can play both special teams effectively. He's not a star, but he's a useful utility part of the team and for the skills he brings you won't find anyone cheaper in the NHL. I just hope Holland can get him extended for the league minimum or close for several years before the playoffs, because Kopecky is better now than any UFA you'll find at that price, and Kop is improving.
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Apparently Moen involved himself with Ott because Giguere did. Link So Ott gave Niedermayer some normal, everyday crosschecks that you would expect in a rough game. Giguere comes out and gives Ott a hard whack in the knee and Ott turns to protect himself. Moen bum-rushes Ott and Ott can't defend himself because of his broken hand. I can't speak to the eye-gouge because of the camera angle, but the Ducks' own commentary is pretty reliable on their motivation. If Ott genuinely eye-gouged Moen, 5-10 games. But he shouldn't be the only one suspended. Giguere and Moen should each get a game or two at least for their involvement in the incident; I mean Giguere took a full whack directly at Ott's knee, which has just as much potential to end a career as a hand contacting an eye.
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I can speak from experience here. I choose to wear a full-face cage, and have worn this cage since before the injury I am going to describe. When I played in college, I took a high stick to the face that left a two-inch gash on my chin that required stitches. Had I not been wearing a cage, the stick would likely have continued up my face and into my eye. I have a reminder on my chin in the form of a scar. I wear the full cage because of an eerily similar experience I escaped from without injury when I was younger and wore a half-visor. At one point during a game I got a defenseman's stick caught under my visor. Fortunately, both of us realized what had happened and were able to get it out without any injury after some wrangling, but after that day I switched to a full cage.
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There once was a goaltender named Marty. He was better than Roy and Hasek. The End.
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The only deal yet proposed in this thread I would do is: Filppula/Kronwall for Horton/Bouwmeester Regardless of whether we are able to sign Bouw, that deal works out because Horton is signed at $4m through 2012-13, and he's a HUGE upgrade over Filppula. So if we don't keep Bouw, then we save $2m in cap space and have an elite power forward who we can pair with Hudler on the second line. Keeping Bouw might be difficult given cap constraints, but might be possible depending on the rest of the roster.
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How do you fix this team's defensive problems?
eva unit zero replied to Yzerman191's topic in General
Like, say, Chelios? Chelios has badly outplayed Lebda in the games I've seen. Hmm...anyone think McCrimmon is in good enough shape to put the pads on? Chelios can help out there. Solve two problems there. Dump Lebda for whatever pick or prospect he'll bring in, sign McCrimmon for the pro-rated league minimum to take his place. Put someone else in charge of the PK and Defense. Our defense can look like this: Lidstrom/Rafalski Kronwall/Stuart Lilja/Chelios Meech/McCrimmon How's that work out for everyone? -
Ty Conklin: at a Critical Junction in His Career
eva unit zero replied to gcom007's topic in General
It doesn't matter if he can't outplay Osgood because he's gone as a UFA in the summer anyway. -
I don't watch CBC that much. You know why? Because Don Cherry is a ******* douchebag who thinks that anyone who's not Canadian should be kicked out of the NHL. Ovechkin is the best goal scorer in the league, and he celebrates when he scores. Should he just put the puck in the net the skate away with his head down?
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Leino and Flip also looked really good...but ultimately there were two things that made me say Kopecky. The first is that a lot of times a Wings forward would just look great and I wouldn't get a look at who it was until after assessing their play, and it would keep being Kopecky. Like I said...he looked a lot like the all-around power forward he's supposed to be developing into.
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Yeah, the last sentence of the post you quoted was kind of important there. You know, where I said Marleau would win in a landslide if his end-of-season numbers were similar to what I had posted? Just so you know, reading comprehension is important on a message board.
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Who is the most improved Red Wing from last season?
eva unit zero replied to Yzerman191's topic in General
Hudler is a good defensive forward, you don't get a plus when your team scores a PP goal, and you don't get a minus when your team is scored against. Hudler would play the PK on some teams. -
If not for Stuart, and to a lesser degree Helm, screwing up on the LA goal, Ozzie gets a 30+ save shutout. I'd say the 10-day break had the intended effect. Ozzie played phenomenally and if he plays that way through the end of the season he's the playoff goalie with no objection. Disagree; It wasn't that Flip made a great play, rather that Quick screwed up by not firing the puck hard around the boards and instead just sort of pushed it a little bit because Flip was coming on that side of the net. Flip was the only player who actually went and got the puck (Quincey didn't really move despite Quick's error) and all Flip had to do to ensure he got the puck was go around the right side instead of the left, to catch the puck sooner. It was a good play, but hardly a great play. Honestly, I thought Kopecky was better than Leino against LA..if he played every game the way he looked tonight, he'd be a top-six power forward easily. He was creating chances, putting himself in the right position to capitalize on chances, he was a beast physically, and he was effective defensively. He was playing like everything that he was "projected" to be when he was a prospect.
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"OVIE" or "DATS":Best overall player...you pick
eva unit zero replied to Wingaling's topic in General
When they've been split up, such as the beginning of this season, Datsyuk was used in a primarily offensive role playing with offensive linemates. Zetterberg was used as the top shut-down center and the first priority with Zetterberg was to match him against the opponent's top offensive line. That's not Zetterberg losing offensive production from not playing with Datsyuk; it's Zetterberg losing production because he was playing as a shut-down center while Datsyuk was playing primarily as a setup man for Marian Hossa, who is an elite goal scorer on Zetterberg's level and therefore Datsyuk's production shouldn't have dropped off at all. Datsyuk's production is similar with similar talent. Zetterberg's production is still a point per game while playing a shut-down role on the second line all season; If Zetterberg stays in an offensive role while split apart from Datsyuk, his offensive production doesn't typically drop off. It's generally a result of his playing more conservatively than his being without Pavel. -
Brett Lebda and Valtteri Filppulla for Niclas Havelid and a 2009 1st round draft pick.
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"OVIE" or "DATS":Best overall player...you pick
eva unit zero replied to Wingaling's topic in General
Which is why I take Zetterberg as the best forward. Because although Dats is the one with the Selke win, even Datsyuk will tell you Zetterberg is the better defensive player. And then you look at leadership, well he's the future captain of the Wings and would be the captain now if not for the greatest defenseman in franchise history, who was recently voted the best captain of the decade. Zetterberg is considered a gritty player and a leader, but is also an elite offensive and defensive player who is known for clutch play. You say to-may-to, he says to-mah-to, I say pomegranate. -
Datsyuk should be a finalist... But Marleau should win it. Better than a point per game, has not missed a game, team captain, and averages 1 minor every 9.833 games. If that description holds out the remaining 23 games, then there's no way anyone should be voting for anyone but Marleau. Tonight's game is included in the 23, of course. Based on his current pace, Marleau is on pace for the following stats at the end of the season if he plays all 82: 82 GP, 46g-42a-88pt, +35, 16 PIM Marleau wins the Lady Byng in a landslide if he has numbers anything like that at the end of the season.
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Personally, I think the "Kopecky has yet to impress me" comes from the same attitude that brings out the "Draper, Maltby, and Holmstrom should have their numbers retired!" but I can't prove that. But IMHO, Kopecky has been the best of the three since Leino and Helm have been getting opportunities in the lineup, and he's the only one who was really working his but off like that before then. Kopecky might not be the best player on the team, but he has outplayed and outworked Drapes and Maltby all year and while I can understand putting Draper in the playoff lineup for his ability on draws, there's really nothing Maltby has been doing better than Kopecky on the fourth line at all.
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Osgood started his NHL career as a hybrid goalie like Martin Brodeur and a few others have been, and during the lockout he worked to fine-tune his style to improve the butterfly area of his game as well as his overall style to allow him to cover more of the net. Holland said last season that he felt Osgood's play since the lockout was better than his play with the Wings before it, even though he had been nominated for the Vezina pre-lockout. It's the same as how Hasek evolved his game by becoming a bit more of a classic stand-up goaltender than he used to be to account for his history of groin injuries. It allowed him to cover the same areas of the net in a different way that he wouldn't have previously used, and because of his groin history was now his only option.
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"OVIE" or "DATS":Best overall player...you pick
eva unit zero replied to Wingaling's topic in General
Nope. Crosby is one of the top playmakers, and one of the top centers...but when you start mixing other factors in like goalscoring and defense, and when you add in other positions....he moves down. Crosby isn't even the best CENTER on his team. That would be Evgeni Malkin. Datsyuk and Zetterberg have a much closer argument because they have been playing on the same line for years, sharing center duties, so calling one or the other "better" is such a subjective argument that it's not quite as comparable. If I had to build a 23-man roster based on performance this season, it would look like this. Forwards: Ovechkin, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Malkin, Thornton, Crosby, Getzlaf, Iginla, Savard, Marleau, Hossa, Parise, Krejci Defense: Lidstrom, Chara, Boyle, Rafalski, Wideman, Keith, Green, Weber Goaltenders: Thomas, Backstrom