calfan

An interesting article and an interesting analysis. It's easy to see who's ringing up the points, but who's scoring those key goals and assists when it really counts and who's just padding their totals. It would be better to see the details of the analysis because if I read this correctly, I believe a dominant team's players (Wings) will score lower because they never play a better team. That may partially explain why Zetterberg, Datsyuk and Lidstrom don't fair well in this analysis. I say only partially because there are many other measures and this one area may not count against them too much. Here's the link. The Clutch Factor

Junior, Junior, Junior - what are we going to do with u?

As a Flames fan, you can't help but respect Homer. He's everything they say about him in that article. He needs another stat and that would be one that measures the number of goals scored for which he doesn't get a point, but for which his ass was 6 inches from the goalie's face. Smyth may have better hands and more points, but Homer's better at distracting the goalie. There isn't a team in the NHL that wouldn't be better if he was playing for them.

I added some edits into your comments above, but let's take a look at the last two para's I left in your quote. First off, I'm not sure the Flames series last year is a good example. They were awful in 3 of the games. Yes, game 5 was very important and Zetterberg scored the second goal to take a 2-0 lead. Clutch goal, would factor well in this measure. But he also scored the 4th goal, not so clutch Dats was in on goals 4 and 5. Not so clutch. How about the series as a whole. Z&D scored points in the 3 blowouts in Detroit. The tight games in Calgary? 0fer. The players always say the hardest game to win is the last one. Z&D? 0fer. Not so clutch in the tougher games of the series. How about the Sharks series? Want to get that game 1 lead? Z&D - nadda. Needing to get the split at home, the boys were clutch with two points each. Want to take the series lead on the road in game 3? Oops, nadda again. Can't fall behind 3-1? Hello Z&D, are you playing? Game 5 is an important game. Z&D get 3 points each. Game 6, D comes up with a clutch point. How about the Ducks series? Each series gets more important. Games 1 and 2 in Detroit, both get clutch points in the games. Game 3 is a laugher from start to finish, but Z gets 2 clutch points. D's point is irrelevant. Game 4 to go up 3-1 in the series - no sign of life from the big guys. Game 5 (that all important game), no points again. Game 6 to stave off elimination and the boys get 2 points each, but they come when the Wings are losing 3-0, 4-1 and 4-2. Important goals in trying to get back in the game, certainly. But hardly clutch goals as the game was a bit of a laugher and while the Wings made it close in the end, they were never really in the game. So what do I see in all of this? With one notable exception, Zetterberg and Datsyuk only had multiple point games in laughers. No big deal, cuz a tight 2-1 game doesn't lend itself to multiple point games anyway. However, in 18 playoff games, they both got shut out in 8 games and Zetterberg was shut out in 11 games in total. Twelve of the games were close games where the total goals scored was 5 or less. Zetterberg only got points in two of those games. I think the clutch factor is relevant and Zetterberg's rating seems to be proved out by the fact that he doesn't seem to show up on the score sheet in the big games. Your right. let's see what happens when the games count. But so far in their playoff careers, neither Datsyuk nor Zetterberg have had much impact on the Wings' success.

The stat doesn't say they aren't important, it says they are less important. To me, the first and second goals would be important, the third less so than the second, etc.

That's exactly the point of the statistic. By this measure, scoring a late goal in a lost game (say 8 seconds left with the score 3-0 rather than 3-2) doesn't mean much by this statistic. I don't think this is the be all and end all of statistics, but I think it has some merit when trying to compare players. Let's say the Wings have to make a cap decision on signing Cleary or signing Homer today. There are a variety of different measures that mgmt and the fans going to consider in evaluating the decision. Cleary has more points in fewer games. Homer's maybe a bad example because his big ole ass creates a lot of goals in which he doesn't even get a point. But, what if Homer's clutch factor is 1.05 and Cleary's is .8, ie Homer gets points at more important times in a game or vice versa. As a fan, do you want the guy who consistently pots the 5th goal in a meaningless 5-0 game or the guy who consistently gets the second or 3rd goal in a crucial 3-2 come from behind win? Some guys disappear in the big games or in the critical parts of any game. Some guys step up in those situations. When you're trying to win the Cup, who do you want on your team? More importantly, what type of player do you want your best players to be?

Only in your mind

What other players? I rarely see it in the NHL. WHL more often, but even then, not always. Keep hating Iginla. He's only better than every forward on the Wings.

The jury is out with me on this too. I heard Chicago is looking for a dman. I would rather have packaged Phaneuf up for Toews and Duncan Keith. There's no doubt Dion doesn't deserve this salary yet. Question is when (if ever) will he. If the hype is true and if salaries keep moving, who knows, maybe in 3 years everyone is saying he was a fool to sign for so little. Remember the hoopla when DiPietro signed? Now he's one of the better goalies in the league but he's earning pretty average $$.

What makes you say he reluctantly had to follow? Jovo took his off, Iginla nodded at him and took his off too. At least with Jovo you know he's not going to use the opportunity to get the jump on you. And at least with Iginla, Jovo knew the invitation wouldn't result in Iginla skating away leaving him looking like an idiot, or worse, leaving him to take the lone unsportsmanlike penalty. I get a kick out of these comments about Iginla and his visor. Ever been in a hockey fight? More often than not the gloves are off and the fists are flying without much warning. How do you take your helmet off in that situation? And what about the supposed tough guys who wiggle the gloves and then back away as soon as the other guy drops his. You want the guy to drop his gloves and his helmet and then watch the ***** skate away - I don't think so.

This was my thought exactly. I would be surprised if the Flames were interested in Forsberg. We need a player we know is going to be around for an extended playoff run (should that happen). We already have some older players (Nolan) and don't need more. It will be interesting to see if the Flames have anything to say about this report.

I'm in the minority here who thinks fighting has its place in hockey. I was at the game and what TSN doesn't show is Iginla trying to drive through Jovo to the net and Jovo gives him two or three hard crosschecks and a shove in the face (no penalty call). Iginla gets right in his face and gives him a couple of shots back to show him he's not going to be pushed around. Jovo takes exception, down go the gloves, off come the helmets and away they go. Funny how Iggy's first fight in a long time comes in the game when he scores for the first time in 11 games. Best laugh of the night was when the guys in front of me got up and left with 15 to play and the guy behind me yells at them "You're going to miss the OT!". He was right! Don't understand the comment about Gretz ruining Mueller. He played on a team of young kids who was brought along by a very good coach. He probably learned a thing or two.

I disagree. The fifth goal in a 5-0 win is not as important as the second and third goal in a come from behind 3-2 win. I also disagree that this statistic rewards teams with unbalanced scoring. If you had the formulas, you could calculate the clutch factor for the Wings team as a whole and you might find that certain "top" players have a lower clutch factor than other players. It doesn't mean they aren't contributing, but you might find that someone else is scoring more of the important goals. Balanced scoring doesn't change who is scoring the big goals at the big times and who's padding their stats in a meaningless game. This statistic ties in somewhat with the usual rant that the Wings benefit from a weaker division. It also ties in with the fact that the Wings have been in the top 3 in the regular season since the last time they won the Cup and then comes the playoffs and they exit early to "inferior" teams. Look at the 2004 series against Calgary. With the series tied 2-2and the Wings in need of some clutch scoring, what happens? They lose two in a row, 1-0 and are done. I can't calculate the statistic for that team, but I have a strong suspicion that the most clutch player on the Wings that year was sitting on the sidelines with bad eyesite during those two games. Look at the game last night against the Wild. The words used to describe the Wings on nhl.com are outhustled, outworked and outplayed in a game against a pretty good team that is always frustrating to play. And the goal scorers are: Franzen, Cleary and Lebda. The stars of the team contributed one assist in an away game against a conference rival. Seems to me like the stat has some merit. Look at the Flames game last night. Losing 3-0 to a conference rival in a game which is the difference between 9th place in the conference and 6th place. If Phoenix wins last night, they're in 6th and the Flames are in ninth. Important game. Phaneuf scores two goals to get the Flames back in it. Iginla scores with 8 seconds left to tie and scores the only goal in the shootout. Without Iginla's goal, Phaneuf's effort only pads his totals, it does nothing for the team. Iginla scored the clutch goal. There's no doubt that there's a bit of chicken and egg in that analysis, but like I said, without the third goal, the first two mean nothing. In a tight game, Zetterberg failed to score. In an important game to stay in the playoff hunt, Iginla scores the tying and winning goals. At the end of the day, its just another stat, another way to break the game down, no more or less important than goals, assists, points, +/-.

Come on Winger - you're kidding right? I just saw JR with the Sharks - dead weight. What's the point in picking up a player who probably can't even keep up with Chelios on the rush? And that's without even considering the dressing room drag this prima donna would cause.

Some others not yet mentioned Edmonton trades Wayne Gretzky to the LA Kings Calgary trades Doug Gilmour to the Leafs Calgary trades Brett Hull to the Blues Toronto trades Lanny McDonald to Colorado

Are we talking favorites or are we talking longshots? You want an out on a limb pick - Devils win it all this year. I'll give you another guess, closer to the tree. SCF is not Ducks vs Sens and the Wings will lose yet again to a bottom 4 team in the second round. These days the gap's too small and parity (mediocrity?) means (almost) anyone can win.

Is there really such a thing as a favourite to win in today's NHL? One lesson Wings fans should have learned is that good in the regular season doesn't translate to the playoffs and that the game is played on ice, not on paper. Without putting much thought to it, I would say there are probably 10 teams with a decent chance to win and I wouldn't want to rank them (I'm sure the sports books in Vegas have). There are probably 5 others with an outside shot and there are 15 with no hope. The Wings and Ducks would be in my top 10.

Didn't do anything? Dats was on a line with Nash. I don't know if he got any points, but he was still part of creating the open ice, etc. As for Lidstrom - give me a break. Shift in, shift out he was the only Western dman on the ice given that Phaneuf was parked in front of the net the whole time. How many times did the East have 2 and 3 on 1's and got zilch. I thought he was pretty solid in a game where they could really just leave the dmen at home.

Was watching but not listening to TSN in a restaurant last night and they were clearly doing a segment on the Leafs and the hunt for their next GM. They showed the usual cast of suspects that Leafs fans think would be interested in their hallowed team (hello Brian Burke), but they also showed a clip of Yzerman in a suit and tie. Wouldn't that just make you wanna ?

I disagree. If it wasn't those two, it would have been two others who would be your favs leading the team and leading the conference. To say the scouting crew are world class doesn't do them justice. I just don't think there is even anyone else in their league. I wouldn't trade players for players with the Wings. I'd trade players for scouts!

Too bad the suits at the NHL offices can't realize what a great job Snoop could do in marketing the NHL. This guy was at all the games last year - he should be front and centre in their marketing plan telling everyone hockey's cool.

I think ultimately Stevie will want a GM position and I think in time he will prove to be a good GM. I thought he did a pretty good job with Team Canada last spring given the number of players who said no (most fans on this site thought no one could say no but they did). Despite not getting the best of the best, he put together a team that could win. I think he has a good sense for talent. I don't think he's the right fit for the Buds, but I think sooner or later he's going to take a position someplace and it might not be with the Wings. To a certain extent, the Wings is a no win situation. Holland has been great. The scouts are great. The Wings right now probably have the best hockey mgmt team ever. There's no place to go but down and even if nothing changed, it would be a long time before he would get any credit for the job he was doing.

I wanted to come back with a bang It's not completely out of the realm of possibilities, but I'd like to think he'd be smarter than that. TO is not a place to be a rookie GM, just ask Fergie. On the other hand if Stevie wants to be a GM, I don't think Holland's job is going to be available anytime soon. He might have to step out of the fold. Could be worse - could be Colorado

The idea of reducing the points awarded for a shootout is silly and would seem to be sponsored by those who think that the NHL is rewarding teams that clearly are just playing for the shootout a la Edmonton. First off, I'm not sure the Oilers are playing for a shootout. I'm pretty sure they would rather win in regulation so that their opponent doesn't get any points seeing as how they play 72 games against teams they need to beat to get into the playoffs. Secondly, even if you accept the argument that teams play for the shootout, you can't hold an argument that the team playing for the shootout will necessarily be the one that wins. If the Wings go all out for a win the whole game, but end up in the shootout, why should they be penalized with a 1 point win rather than a 2 point win?

I was thinking the same thing, worded differently. Networks want the games to end on time, losers shouldn't be rewarded and hockey games shouldn't be decided by a shootout. So, no OT, no shootout, winner gets 2 points, loser gets 0 points and if its tied there are 0 points. Playing for a tie is still a risk, but less often. For the most part, teams always need more points and will play for the win. If you feel the game needs a winner, then have a shootout to determine a winner, but don't award any points for the win. Shootout records would only be considered for tie breakers at the end of the year when determining who's in the playoffs and what position they are ranked. Two teams are tied for the final playoffs spot with 45 wins each, you look at their record against each other including shootout. One's in, one's out. I also like the 3 point system - 3 points for reg win, 2 points for OT/shootout win and 1 point for OT/shootout loss. One suggestion not seen here, indefinite OT, but start 4-4, drop to 3-3 after 2 minutes and then 2-2 after another 2 minutes and go until its decided. We do that for the playoffs in Calgary Minor Hockey. The games usually end pretty quick.