egroen

Since November, I see absolutely no downgrade to our defense from last year. We just notice the bad plays more (which have always happened) just because the puck ends up in the back of the net more often -- and Ken and Mickey then point out what went wrong. Noting new, but more goals against.

The Wings defense is currently 3rd in the NHL in shots allowed with 27.8 (first is 27.0). Yet the Wings are 18th in goals against per game. It's hard to argue the defense is at fault here at this point. This is not an "off" year for Osgood -- this is his worse year EVER, and by no small margin. Not directed at one person in particular, but goalies eventually lose it as they age, as do all players. Just like we could not pardon Hasek in the playoffs last year because of his history, we can not pardon Osgood. And Hasek was playing much better in the regular season than Osgood has all year. Hell, Hasek played better last year in the playoffs, when he was yanked, than Osgood has been playing all year! That is how bad Osgood has been this year.

Unfortunately the takeaway and giveaway stats are probably the most unreliable stats in the NHL - as has been noted, it is tallied by each home team, and can differ from arena to arena. For instane, I don't think there has been a single game where Datsyuk, in my eyes, does not have at least two clean takeaways, and sometimes I see him do it 3 or 4 times. Yet, according to his stats, he is averaging barely more than one a game. Last year he was given credit for twice as many - and I certainly have not seen a noticeable dropoff in his takeaways between this year and last - certainly not a 40% drop. Malkin, meanwhile, has received credit for 40% more takeaways than last year.

This is where you have to just eyeball it -- and while an assist is an assit on the stat sheet, I see a big difference between Hudler's and Filppula's assists of late. Filppula can just get the puck to Hossa, and Hossa can make something of nothing - but Hudler is actually able to set him up for an immediate opportunity. In the same way, Franzen often needs his goals served on a platter to him, and Hudler is better equipped to do so. I just think that line with Hudler would be an offensive powerhouse, and I hope we get to see it going into the playoffs here.

A drop of such a magnitude as what Maclean predicts (who is an eternal pessimist) handcuffs over 90% of NHL teams. In the case of a large percentage drop in salary cap like this it does no one any good, and there is a tool in the CBA to completely avoid it. The NHLPA and NHL can agree to inflate the prior years revenue by any percentage they want to determine the next year's cap. It's normally 5%, but can be changed by mutual consent. If they need to, they'll change it to 15% for cap purposes so that players don't get bought out/sent to minors in droves, and to keep the free agent market alive. The escrow will just go way up to account for it. It would be foolish by all sides to allow the cap to collapse. Will they let it drop a million or three? Sure. 5 or 10M? No way. With an average of 4% revenues growth over the next ten years, we will see the salary cap in the $80m range. This is conservative, for a league with no current lucrative TV contract.

Helm has effort and energy beyond that of Filppula - that does not mean he belongs on the second line - and I do not see anyone questioning Hudler's effort and energy this year. I would want to see Hudler on that 2nd line, because paired with Franzen and Hossa, he is going to create a lot more opportunities for them, plus he is better equiped to bury more passes than Filppula would. With two responsible two-way players on that line already (Hossa and Franzen), I do not put as high of a premium on Filppula's defensive play. IE. that line is already defensively responsible, but we want them to be as dangerous as possible offensively as well - Hudler gives you that in spades over Filppula.

Hudler has played all of 8 games this year with more than 16 minutes TOI - while Filppula is averaging more than that - so obviously your hudler sample size has a lot more room for error. The first three games Hudler played with over 16 minutes, he did not score. Since then, and it has been quite easy to visually see his improvement this year, he has had 2 goals and 4 assists (6 pts) in the 5 games he has seen more than 16 minutes, or 1.2 pts per game.

It's bad timing for Bouwmeester to be a free agent -- if only it was next year! Holland does not have to move a single roster player, unless he is going for someone with the salary of Khabibulin. He can afford to pick up almost $4m in salary at the trade deadline if he wants to. Anyone notice him not bringing up a goalie from GR even when Osgood was injured? Playing Meech as forward instead of bringing someone up? He has been hording cap space and his penny pinching has paid off. Don't trade a roster player -- I like having the depth for the playoffs.

I think Babcock just likes having a legitimate scoring threat on the bottom lines and it is as simple as that. More so than any forward outside of Datsyuk, Hudler makes the players around him better and will single-handidly make a line of Helm and McCarty a consistent scoring threat. It's all about putting the right pieces together -- and obviously Hudler needs to play with someone with wheels and can backcheck: Holmstrom Hudler Leino -- would get scored on every shift. But I am dieing to see a Franzen Hudler Hossa line. In fact, I am salivating over the potential of that line. Franzen needs a playmaker - and Filppula does not cut it. Hossa can create plays by himself, but is not a bad passer once he has drawn a couple defenders to himself. Again, Filppula is not the guy you want him passing to. But both Franzen and Hudler are more than capable of burying it. You have two quality backcheckers, three goal scorers, one net front presence, one elite playmaker and another good one, two fast skaters and two big bodies -- What a line! And it lets you keep the Euro Twins together, but still keeps a legitimate 1b line.

Yes, he is right... most people who make that idiotic statement point to "the beginning of the season" -- which in reality, was all of two games. Since then, whenever Hudler has been given even close to 2nd line minutes (over 16 minutes), he has produced at over a point per game.

It was true of Hudler in the very first two games this year, where he played 16 minutes on the second line and did not register a point. Based on that (and ignoring the pre-season where he was scoring a point per game on the second line), Babcock slammed him back down to the 4th line. Since then, and not until months later, he has played above 16 minutes about 4 times now, averaging over a point per game in them.

I'll resist the temptation to blow a Filppula-Yzerman comparison out of context, but Stevie was not being paid that while the Wings had a salary cap, and I think it is fair to say he brought a few more intangibles to the table than Filppula. It's all about the salary cap - and I have a feeling the Wings' braintrust have similar arguments like this on a daily basis (except maybe without the name calling... maybe.) To just keep the same roster year-in-and-year-out in a salary cap world, as long as every one is putting in an effort, is to get left behind. I swear, I think some here would not even consider trading Maltby if it meant we could keep Hossa. If Filppula, Franzen and Hudler all cost $3 million - who is more important to keep? What if Franzen is slightly more and Hudler slightly less? To not ask and weigh those questions is a huge mistake, and one I doubt the Wings management is making. Yes, we are just spinning our wheels here, but it is fun.

If Osgood continues his funk, I am pretty sure I will not crap my pants in suprise if Holland trades for a goalie at the deadline, despite this article.

I would rather keep Samuelsson than have Nolan around next year -- and I do not like giving up Filppula or Lebda for the playoffs. If Holland needs to get a goalie, I think he can do it without losing a roster player.

Filppula is a wreck offensively -- and offense just can not be taught -- while defense can. There is a better chance that Hudler becomes as good as Filppula defensively, than the chance Filppula becomes even remotely as talented offensively as Hudler. He completely misses the net half the time he shoots... so much so that I am actually kind of suprised his shot % is so low. Frankly, given his linemates and his minutes over the past two years, it is amazing his points are still low. He was consistently on the second line last year and received ample power play time. He was getting 17 minutes a game and 1:50 in PP time. Despite that, he was outscored by: Cleary (42 - 36) who played in 15 less games than Val, playing more of a checking role and w/ worse linemates. Hudler (42 - 36) who played 4 minutes less per game and with much worse linemates. Holmstrom (40 - 36) who played in 19 less games. Samuelsson (40 - 36) who played in 5 less games. Franzen (38 - 36) who played in 6 less games and also played more of a checking role than Val last year. Filppula is more of an upgraded Draper than he is a downgraded Datsyuk or Zetterberg. He looks lost in the offensive zone; his shot is poor and he is not much of a playmaker. And that has not improved since last year. From the moment players like Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Hudler and to a lesser degree, Leino, stepped onto the ice, you saw their offensive potential. I have never seen that with Filppula. He has improved defensively. Cleary and Franzen both received a lot more PK time than him last year and while Cleary still gets more PK time this year, Franzen has been used more on the PP. Amongst forwards on the team defensively, I rank him solidly in the second group (after Datsyuk and Zetterberg) which includes Cleary, Hossa, Filppula, Draper and Franzen -- the order of which fluctuates on a game-to-game basis. Point being, he is hardly unique among this team as far as responsible two-way play. I would be pretty disgusted if Holland lets Hudler go in favor of Filppula -- Jiri has done nothing but improve offensively, defensively as well as physically and proved every naysayer wrong every step of the way. I am not sure if there is a player on the team who plays with more heart and passion on a consistent basis... and his progression is showing no hiccups. He looked outstanding with Hossa on the second line the other day. Hudler is just that unique of a player, while a speedy, defensively responsible guy like Filppula is a lot easier to replace. I am now flip-flopping on Franzen or Filppula. I am just getting tired of Franzen's injuries, as he is no help to the team when he is sitting out. This year started out strong for him, and he was scoring goals at a similar pace to Hossa, as well as backchecking hard -- but that faded very quickly. Maybe he has been nursing an injury and this is an excuse to get him 100%, but for the last half of the season he has been underwhelming. At this point, if he is asking for more money than Filppula, I would probably be fine keeping Filppula. If Franzen comes back and we see the same lackluster play from him, I am more than fine if he walks at the end of the year -- as both Filppula and Hudler have been putting in a much better effort. Final point -- If Franzen and Hudler happened to have become free agents before Filppula, and were both signed -- I bet there would be very few posters here talking about trading Franzen and Hudler so Filppula could stay.

Numbers are actualy a poor way of comparing them - as we are talking completey different eras. Accomlishments relative to their peers of the time are a better way: Sawchuk Calder Memorial Trophy Winner (1951) NHL First All-Star Team (1951, 1952, & 1953) -- This is the equivalent of a modern day Vezina Trophy NHL Second All-Star Team (1954, 1955, 1959, & 1963) Vezina Trophy Winner (1952, 1953, 1955, & 1965) -- This is the equivalent of a modern day Jennings Trophy Stanley Cup Championships (1952, 1954, 1955, & 1967) -- Would probably have two Conn Smythe Trophies if they were around then. Osgood NHL Second All-Star Team (1996) Jennings Trophy (shared with Mike Vernon - 1996), (shared with Dominik Hasek - 2008) Stanley Cup Champinships - 1997, 1998, 2008 (starting goaltender in 1998 and 2008) So there is definitely a huge difference between these two goalies -- though they did both enjoy long careers with good teams.

I would not be disappointed by that... though you are also giving up on Howard in this case. Osgood can not be moved or sent down, so there is realy no room for Howard who is no longer waiver-exempt.

Well that was quick. But anyone could have seen this coming from a mile away.

The Wings can not afford to be 100% loyal in a cap world, or they will be left behind. I agree with everything you said, especially regarding Osgood -- but I still view Filppula as expendable. He did not take a discount and he held out for a long time. I would be shocked if Osgood was traded - and it makes sense to keep him, even if he never regains his old form. His salary is not at all bad for a backup. But the Wings can not just let players like Hossa, Franzen and Hudler wak away simply because Filppula became a free agent first.

Yes. The Wings could afford adding up to as much as $4m in salary at the trade deadline, without losing a roster player. Holland has been hording cap space all year long for this type of flexibility (playing Meech at forward; not bringing up any of the GR goalies, etc). He does not need to hold off talks with Franzen or Hossa - as long as he is (if) bringing in a UFA or RFA, so the tagging limits are not reached. This is not the year for the Wings to bring in a goalie long term -- one more year of Osgood and Howard/Larsson/Conklin or trade deadline rental is not going to kill this team. They need to figure out how much they save with Lidstrom's next contract, where the cap is going for the all important 2010-11 season and just how far along Howard and Larsson have come.

Yup - it's still the average cap hit.

Obviously Sawchuk did not.

Ok - I thought it might be handy to have a direct source for impending UFA and RFA goalies. If you want to talk about options, here is a great place to do so. If you do not, here is a great thread to ignore. UFAs Nikolai Khabibulin G CHI $6,750,000 Manny Fernandez G BOS $4,750,000 Martin Gerber G OTT $3,700,000 Martin Biron G PHI $3,500,000 Nicklas Backstrom G MIN $3,100,000 Dwayne Roloson G EDM $3,000,000 Manny Legace G STL $2,500,000 Olaf Kolzig G WSH $1,500,000 Antero Niittymaki G PHI $1,375,000 Tim Thomas G BOS $1,100,000 Mathieu Garon G PIT $1,000,000 Fredrik Norrena G CBJ $900,000 Jason Labarbera G VAN $850,000 Brent Johnson G WAS $825,000 Mikael Tellqvist G PHX $800,000 Ty Conklin G DET $750,000 Stephen Valiquette G NYR $725,000 Erik Ersberg G LA $700,000 Curtis Joseph G TOR $700,000 Kevin Weekes G NJ $700,000 Brian Boucher G SJ $650,000 Curtis Sanford G VAN $650,000 Nolan Schaefer G MIN $600,000 Craig Anderson G FLA $575,000 Jean-Sebastien Aubin G PHI $550,000 Yann Danis G NYI $550,000 Dany Sabourin G EDM $525,000 Scott Clemmensen G NJ $500,000 Brent Krahn G CGY $500,000 Joey MacDonald G NYI $500,000 Drew MacIntyre G NSH $500,000 RFAs Kari Lehtonen* G ATL $3,000,000 Devan Dubnyk G EDM $984,200 Marek Schwarz G STL $984,200 Antti Niemi* G CHI $875,000 Peter Budaj* G COL $800,000 Brian Elliott G OTT $757,720 Josh Harding* G MIN $750,000 Thomas Greiss G SJ $725,000 Karri Ramo G TB $725,000 Kevin Regan* G BOS $720,000 Jason Bacashihua* G COL $708,092 Justin Peters G CAR $675,000 Corey Crawford* G CHI $660,000 Matt Climie* G DAL $650,000 David Shantz G FLA $650,000 David Brown G PIT $610,000 David Leneveu* G ANA $600,000 Taylor Dakers G SJ $585,000 Peter Mannino* G NYI $550,000 Justin Pogge G TOR $550,000 Dan Turple G ATL $550,000 Julien Ellis-Plante G VAN $525,000 Daniel Lacosta G CBJ $525,000 Josh Tordjman G PHX $525,000 Jeff Glass* G OTT $522,500 Daniel Manzato* G CAR $522,500 Matt Zaba* G NYR $522,500 Adam Dennis G BUF $520,000 Daniel Taylor G LA $517,500 John Curry G PIT $500,000 Curtis McElhinney* G CGY $500,000 Darcy Machesney G WSH $490,000 Tobias Stephan* G DAL $485,000 Chris Holt* G STL $475,000 Loic Lacasse G MTL $475,000 Tyler Weiman* G COL $475,000 * Are arbitration elgible The Red Wings could literally pick up a salary of close to $4,000,000 on March 4th, without exceeding their cap allowance, and without trading a roster player. I am using the following site as a source: http://www.nhlscap.com/teamnumbers.htm

That's a steep price to pay for Schneider -- nice job by the Thrashers. If this is an indicator -- defensemen will be going for premiums at the deadline. So ultimately Atlanta trades Brad Larsen, Ken Klee, and Chad Painchaud for a 2nd and 3rd round pick. Not bad for a bunch of scrubs.

Ottawa will be selling at the trade deadline, not buying. But yes, I see Philly as the only real possible competition for a goaltender. I see defensemen as having the most value this trade deadline. Lupul is almost a salary dump for Philly -- Next year he is making $4.25m for the next four years, and has been pretty riddled with injuries the past couple years. I dunno if Minnesota wants that price tag, or if Philly will focus more on trying to get a Bouwmeester or Pronger type defender. I still think Filppula is WAY too much for a rental alone.