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Everything posted by Buppy
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Homer was headed toward another 25+ goal season before he got hurt last year (28.7 to be precise). No doubt if he's fairly healthy he can still be an important contributor to a scoring line. (And that's before factoring the intangibles mentioned earlier.) Also, now that we have a 13th forward, he (nor Maltby and Draper) need to be every day players. We have the freedom to rest him on back to backs or long road trips. He already played fewer minutes per game than the other top 6 players (8th in TOI/G among forwards). The 4th line isn't a garbage pile, nor is the first line necessarily your three best forwards. Lines are about combinations that work. The Wings will try to get all 4 lines to be effective. Homer could work with Flip/Mule, but not as well as with Pav and Hank. Putting him on the 3rd or 4th line would do more damage to that line than the benefit you'd get from Cleary/whoever moving to the top line.
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Personally, I think it would be a little bit of a relief if Chicago wins the Central, with the Wings as a 4th or even 5th seed. Start a playoff series on the road for the first time in around 10 years. Maybe not be favored for once, not have to listen to other team's fans talk s*** for a whole series then brag about how 'tough' they played us when they lose. I'd like to play the underdog for a while. Coast through the regular season, 40-45 wins, turn it on in the playoffs...It worked in 97.
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True Wings fan at least. Cleary is borderline. Helm is laughable. He isn't very good. He's fast, has shown a decent work ethic, and a willingness to hit (though rarely seems to do much damage). He's not very good defensively, and piss poor offensively. Maybe, hopefully even, his game will develop enough to be worthy of the next Olympics, but he's not even close right now. And Getz is only skipping the camp. He'll play in the Olympics for sure (unless he's hurt of course). The exclusion of Ozzie puzzled me a bit too. Maybe and age thing? I can see Broduer and Luongo being above him, but Ward, Fluery, Mason , etc certainly aren't so much better that Ozzie doesn't deserve an invite.
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Not really sold on Hiller just yet. Remember last year Ellis was the next big thing. And speaking of Ellis, he could be a solid pickup if he shows that last year was just a sophomore slump. Rinne is also set to be UFA next summer, and I doubt Nashville will pursue both of them. On Marleau, the Sharks have some serious cap issues this year. They're just squeeking under and they still need 2 or 3 forwards. Not sure when the buyout periods are, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him bought out if they can't trade away some salary.
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Mac was much more than just a fighter. He was very solid defensively (albeit, overshadowed by 4 Selke winners and a few more very good defensive forwards while he was here), skated well, could hit and agitate, and was good enough offensively to occasionally step into a scoring role. He pretty much did everything decently, but nothing, not even fighting, great.
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Kopy would be doing well if he becomes a poor man's Homer with a little better defense. Add 10-15 lbs of muscle and he could be a very good grinder, but top 6 is a bit of a stretch I think.
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Pav and Hank move around so much, there really isn't much of a distinction. That would make a nice 4th line, but we'd need someone other than Maltby for the 3rd. Pav - Hank - Homer Mule - Flip - Leino Cleary - Williams - Not Maltby Draper - Helm - Eaves or Mule - Hank - Cleary/Leino Homer - Pav - Leino/Cleary Not Maltby - Flip - Williams Draper - Helm - Eaves
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Pav-Hossa-Homer was our best line by far before Homer got hurt. Since Homer can't contribute anything but net presence (never has really) he'll start the year on a top line unless he's hurt. I doubt he'll ever play regularly with Draper and Maltby, no matter how bad he plays. The 4th line isn't a trash can where you throw your worst players. Babs will try to make it at least somewhat useful. I'd expect Eaves, someone new, or Helm on that line. Helm will never be on a scoring line unless we are totally decimated by injuries. Also, of the 9 forwards we have that can play center, Flip and Helm would make the worst wingers. I doubt very much they'll ever be on the same line.
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I think he's the best goalie in the league right now. Don't know if he's 'worth' 8 mil a year. I suppose I'd say any top tier goalie, or even any top player, is worth as much as a team can afford without hurting their ability to build a competitive team. But I'll add that any long term deal for a goalie (unless very cheap) is a bad idea. Goalies seem to have a tendency to flare out pretty quick. And Luongo is already 30.
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I nominate Sideswipe for 13th forward! He already has winged wheels! I = gimp photoshop skills
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I don't think anyone seriously thinks we will win the Cup every year. We expect to be a legitimate contender every year. We expect a team that can win the Cup. Once we have a team that can win, there's nothing wrong with being confident that they will. That's not really the same as expecting them to win every year. Teams do not rebuild with an expectation of winning the Cup. Teams rebuild to become contenders. To become what we have been for a decade and a half and counting. From that point it's drive, effort, and luck (and maybe some small tweaks) that makes a champion. Also, not expecting to lose.
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Like I said in my last post, 60ish points is far from elite. How 'bout you Flip detractors try refuting something without the retarded exaggerations? No one expects him to lead the league or score 100 points. A few of us think he'll do marginally better than what you predict and you're acting like we've already built him a wing in the HHOF. Babs and Holland both think he can be a 70+ point guy, Pav, Hank, Mule, Nick...all think he can be a very good offensive player. Teemu Selanne thinks he can be great. All of them certainly know a hell of a lot more than any of us. Also, Happy did not play either 'a ton less' or with significantly 'worse linemates'. Flip: 13:30 minutes ES, 0:45 minutes PP, 2 minutes SH. Happy: 11 minutes ES, 3 minutes PP Considering the advantages of the PP, and the disavantages of being SH, I'd say Hudler's +2:15 on the PP amounts to more offensive advantage than Flip's +2:30 ES and +2 SH time. As for linemates, both Flip and Happy spent time on the top lines, probably close to even. They played together on the 3rd line. Advantage to Flip there since Happy was a bit better last year. Then Hudler played on the PP with Hank & Mule, and often Nick & Rafi...and you can't build a much better PP unit. I'd say that is a larger offensive advantage than Flip gets from having Hudler on his wing. Hudler is far from a great offensive player himself. He has a very good shot and he works hard, that's about it. Hudler would often shoot when he should have passed and made many poor or ill advised passes. 'Awareness' is pretty close, with Flip having a bit better ice vision, and Happy a bit better shot/pass selection. Both move pretty well without the puck. Hudler more likely to go to the net. Flip a much better puck handler. Hudler too often tries centering passes that have no chance, Flip too often throws the puck back to the points. Both could be a lot better in the corners. All in all I'd say they are fairly equal, with Happy being more developed and more of a goal scorer, with Flip more of a passer. Both likely career mid-tier, 50-70 point players. Hudler not getting 60 points last year doesn't mean he can't, and certainly doesn't mean Flip can't.
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First, Flip did play a bit on the top lines, but the Wings top 3 lines split time pretty evenly. Hossa, as a full time top 6, had around the same ES time as Flip, and only about a minute more than Sammy. Remember, ES also includes 4 on 4, which guys like Homer, Happy, and Sammy didn't usually play. Homer was top 6 pretty much whenever he was playing, but still had less ES time/Game than Flip. Truth is, Cleary, Sammy, Happy, and Flip all spent time on the top lines, but none were 'regular' top 6 guys last year. Secondly, 60 points is a long way from 'elite' and only just above your projected peak. Every year almost there are breakout players. Mule went from 38 points 2 years ago to 59 last year. Happy went from 42 to 57. Flip had 19 goals two years ago, 40 points last year. A long playoff run, the offseason, training cap, and even the course of the season should all help him develop and improve. 60 points is probably a bit optimistic, but not nearly as far fetched as you're making it sound, assuming Flip does play a regular top 6 role and has no significant injuries.
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Most of our best call-up options have to clear waivers, so I don't see them moving up and down much. And if Lilly ends up on IR, you have just Meech backing up 18 skaters, 5 of them getting long in years. We're not as tight to the cap as last year, especially with Lilly on IR or moving Meech/Lebda, and we don't have as much talent available in GR. I don't know if it will be someone in the system already or someone new, but I fully expect a true 13th forward to be on the roster.
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In 17 seasons the Wings haven't finished lower than 6th overall, or 3rd in our conference. (We were a 4th seed once, but only because St.Louis won our division and the President's trophy that year...the Wings actually had the 2nd best record in the league.) We've retooled our lines many times over that span, including a transition in top forwards from Fedorov, Yzerman, Shannahan to Pav and Hank, and adjusted to the new salary cap era. 'Rebuilding year' for the Wings just means we're not the odds-on favorite, but still a legit contender. By that standard, yeah, this might be a rebuilding year.
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On this team, Lilly is a 3rd pair guy, expendable by definition. Not a knock on him, it would be truly awesome to have a 3rd pair as good as Lilly/Eric. But we don't really need them. For that matter, any of our defensemen aside from Lidstrom are expendable (or would be if Lilly was healthy).
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Put Homer with Draper and Maltby and you take away any chance of Homer being at all productive and any chance of the 4th line being at all valuable. Homer's game has always relied on his having play makers to feed him, even more so now. Draper and Maltby need someone solid to help them out. Personally, I'm hoping for one more grinder to get signed. There's no way that all three of those guys will play a full season...most likely none of them will, and we're certain to have other injuries. Meech obviously can't back up everyone and I think everyone besides JAbs who is even close to NHL caliber has to clear waivers both up and down. I don't think we'll want to expose anyone to recall waivers since we'd then have to eat half their cap hit. Don't know that we want to add another rookie like Oulahen or McGrath to a full time spot... We have cap space, epecially if Lilly goes on LTIR. Kyle Calder and Boyd Devereaux are both still available.
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I'd love those top 3 lines, but man, what a terrible 4th. Homer needs to be on a scoring line. His game is completely dependent on having talented playmakers to feed him. Otherwise he's just another old, slow, defensive liability that can't score. Leave Homer on a top line, move Eaves to the 4th, Cleary or Prospal to the 3rd. Hank-Pav-Homer Mule-Flip-Prospal/Cleary Leino-Helm-Prospal/Cleary Maltby-Draper-Eaves or if Babs insists on trying to split up Pav and Hank: Mule-Hank-Cleary Prospal-Pav-Homer Leino-Flip-Eaves Draper-Helm-Maltby
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League minimum is still $500,000 for the next 2 season, then 525,000 for the 11-12 season. Buyouts do not count toward that. Remember though, half of Happy's points came on the PP, so the burden of replacing his production is likely to be distributed to more than one player.
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Exactly the type of signing I was hoping for for one of the open spots. Young enough to have a chance to catch on with the team, solid potential, and a rock bottom price tag. Sounds like he could fill in on the top lines in an emergency as well. I won't expect much from him, but hope to be surprised. Now if we could get Prospal at a bargain price I'd be happy. Other than that I'd rather stay away from a top-6 guy. I'd like to see another cheap grinder (or two, really). Someone that can hit, annoy the other team's star players for a change. I think that would add more to the team than a scorer. And if we can save something for the trade deadline just in case, all the better. And yeah, I like to watch a good donnybrook now and then, so a fighter would be nice as long as they can play a little too. Of course is Tanguay or Sundin want to sign for <$2 mil I wouldn't complain...
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Downey was on last year's team and played the same number of minutes in the playoffs (0) as he did in the Cup win. Trade part-time McCarty for Kopy/Abdelkader/Leino and Lilja for Ericcson and Hossa for Drake....you're not looking at a significant difference in toughness. Toughness is not why we lost or won in either year. Suggesting the 07-08 team was tougher than last year's is silly. If you want to question the heart and toughness, then fine...but do it for the 07-08 team too because they were damn near identical. If you don't then it's just what I said...tough enough when they win, not tough enough when they don't = bandwagon. And for the record, in my first post on this thread I said we should get someone who can fight, since we're not going to get anyone very good anyway so why not. I just think it's pretty weak to question the character of a team that followed up a Cup win with over 50 wins in the regular season and then 15 in the playoffs, and with maybe one less injury or a few more bounces in their direction or a few less mistakes would have made it 16. Seems to me a real fan would appreciate the Wings giving us another great season, even though the end was disappointing.
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And to add one more thing... The primary reason for the Wing's emphasis on Europeans is because of their position in the draft. It's generally easier to find 'hidden gems' in Europe. North American kids have too many scouts watching them.
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What makes you 'bandwagon' is calling your team heartless because they had a few bad breaks/injuries and came up a game short when you would no doubt have both lips tight to the shaft if they'd have gotten a couple lucky bounces and won one of those last two games. And even in 97, after losing the first 3 games to the Avs, the toughness of that team was in question. Fans have been questioning and critisizing the toughness of the Wings every year for the past two decades almost. Just when we win the Cup no one cares. Win the Cup and the team was tough enough, lose and it wasn't...that's the very definition of bandwagon.
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And how many 'solid defense' guys are both available and affordable? I think we're looking at three groups: Prospects that haven't panned out trying to rekindle their careers and be the next Cleary; Untested kids trying to be the next Draper/Maltby; and Borderline over-the-hill vets trying not to be the current Draper/Maltby. 'Liability' is something I think we just have to accept given our cap situation.
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Just had to reply to this... Both before and after the 97 and 98 Cups, the major criticism from Wing's fans was the lack of team toughness, the same as it is today. And this team was one or two bounces from repeating. They had more injuries in the playoffs, and lacked the inspirational mascot of Vladdy. Blaming it on a lack of heart or toughness is retarded, and pretty much makes you a bandwagon fan yourself.