Buppy

Moot point. No one is going to give up a high end player in his prime for a prospect, unless the prospect is all but guaranteed to be much better. At best you might find a team with an excess of defensemen willing to move whichever they like least, or a team looking to rebuild willing to part with an aging player, or maybe a pending UFA. But for the most part you'll have to give up a lot more in potential than what you're getting back. The salary cap is another thing to consider. Cheap production is important. If you're trading for a high-end player, it's going to be someone who already has (or very soon will have) a high-end salary. So it's not just "what can we get from Mantha in the next 5-6 years?"...it's what can we get from Mantha plus the extra $2-5M in cap space?

I don't think many, if any, NHL GMs are going to base Nyquist's value on his hot streak. I doubt anyone really expects him to be a 40+ goal scorer, or 30+ even. I think if he scores 20+g, 50+p next year it would raise his value. And if he were to sign a new deal at a good hit, say 4 yrs @ <=$3M/yr, it would raise even further.

Well that's settled. Too bad, was hoping to see what he could do with the Griffs.

Wow. In a few weeks Mantha has gone from, "maybe he'll have a chance to make the team next year", to the next Ovechkin. At this rate he'll be in the Hall of Fame by June.

You need to read more internets... http://superdickery.com/index.php?Itemid=45&id=28&layout=blog&option=com_content&view=category&limitstart=2

Moving one of our best defensemen and another who may be one of our best, neither of whom is particularly tough, to forward, replacing one of our best scorers and a potentially good UFA, then filling the defensive holes with Q and 3 rookies is not, I think, what any sane person would consider the next best alternative. Not even in the top 50 best alternatives. In fact, I can't think of a whole lot of worse alternatives that don't involve acts of terrorism.

Typical. Stats don't say what you want, so you resort to something less quantifiable. Well, Franzen's advanced stats are also comparable to Hossa's. Giveaway numbers are similar (though Hossa does get far more takeaways), hits are similar. I won't dig through the numbers again (you could probably find something in my post history), but Franzen is not unusually streaky. No more prone to hot or cold streaks than other 25-35g scorers (including Hossa). As far as tight games, I strongly suspect you're just talking out of your ass there, and you have idea what the real tendencies are. I would assume you're wrong, and both players have a fairly even distribution of game situations they've scored in. NHL.com has all the game logs though, so you're welcome to try to prove that point.

Like I said, even if the offer was real the cap space wasn't there. He could have offered Hudler $300M. No matter what, keeping Hossa would have meant losing someone else on the team (and Hudler wasn't, the first year). Fact is, Hossa has produced 28g and 72p over Franzen in 5 years. 5-6g, 14-15p per year for an extra $1.3M in cap and two extra years of length. Franzen is far, far closer to Hossa than you or many others would like to believe.

Hindsight really has nothing to do with it, he's just making things up. Even if there was a real offer for Hudler, the cap space wasn't there.

Fischer only played a little in the AHL too. 25 games over two years. And also a Q product. But I'm fairly sure the last player to jump from junior with no AHL time at all was Yzerman.

It possibly fills a need, IF Myers can improve and start showing some of what won him the Calder, and IF Stewart can gain some consistency, start producing 25g+ each year. But it also creates an even larger hole at forward by giving up Franzen and Tatar. Then you add a prospect who may end up better than Myers and a pick that may end up better than Stewart. Drop the 1st, Tatar or Franzen, and Ouellet and I'd do it (though I'd be shocked if Buffalo would). As suggested it's an insane price to pay for a gamble. Sure, it has potential, depending on who fills the extra hole at forward. But I'd say it most likely just makes us worse.

$5.5M wouldn't be too horrible, and probably moveable unless he completely tanked. My concern is that he's shaping up to be one of those "Big prize" players that every team is going after, and looking at some past players in a similar situation: Campbell, Bouwmeester, Suter...$5.5M may be pretty optimistic. I don't want to get saddled with 6/7 yr, $6.5-7M deal and risk him being unmovable if he regresses or doesn't fit in well. And our cap space isn't unlimited, even at $5.5 it likely limits what we can do at forward. I think Zidlicky would be a much better option, if he's available. Very similar numbers (even though Zidlicky plays for a much worse team) in almost every way. Even their advanced metrics are similar. But Zid should be much cheaper and much shorter a commitment.

Actually, White's best year was 09-10. 38 points split between Toronto and Calgary. Rafalski did put up career numbers here though. But my point is that your statement was just not entirely accurate. Or at least misleading. Most players have been about the same here as they have elsewhere, considering the stage in their career. A few have gotten better when they've got a better opportunity elsewhere (Kopy, Quincey - who was 23 and barely played here before leaving, Leino for a year - again wasn't here long), some have disappeared (Lebda, Meech). Those coming in, who have stayed reasonably healthy, with the exception of Quincey, have again been similar to what they were doing at that point in their career. Sammy scored more goals (and almost as many points) his first season here than he had in his career at that point. Then he got an even better role with Vancouver and put up better numbers. There is nothing, systemically or personnel-wise, to suggest a player will do significantly worse here. That's what you made it sound like.

It's not actually true though. Bert's numbers have been in line with what he did prior to coming here, and about what you'd expect with an aging player. Same thing with Alfie. White's first season here was one of his best. Hossa had one of his better years. Modano was at the end of his career and got injured. JWilly and Sammy got injured and were never able to find a place after. Weiss got injured, and the verdict is still out. Tootoo's numbers were down a bit (a lot from his last year in Nashville), but numbers aren't really his game anyway. So I think the only real question is why Quincey can't seem to score in our system. Of the players who left, Leino (who wasn't even here long enough to establish himself) had one good year, Hossa has been about the same, Kopy improved a bit but no more than you'd expect given his limited role here, Hudler is about the same, Flip was good in his first year in TB but not better than his good year here, we'll see if he's any more consistent than he was his last three seasons here. Sammy improved briefly in a bigger role, but nothing major. Brunner was worse in his first year in NJ, though like Leino he wasn't here long enough. I think everyone else is out of the league now.

I wouldn't be so sure that Niskanen will be available. Pens have about $16M, and I'd assume they'd try to move Scuderi before letting Niskanen walk. Most of their important forwards are signed, so a lot of their holes can be filled cheaply. If he does make it to July 1st, there's a lot of teams with a lot of cap space, and every one would like to add a player like him. $5.5 is probably optimistic, even if you go 7 years. I'm more confortable trusting the future of our defense to the growth of Dekeyser, Smith, and the kids in GR than I am with hoping Niskanen will be worth some huge contract. And there are likely to be other UFAs available in the future if the kids aren't looking so good. Staal, Sekera, Yandle, Goligoski, Johnson... all could potentially be available in the next two years. And then you have the trade option. I was all in for Suter, but not for Niskanen. We have too much going for us, I don't like the risk. And for the record, he's 4th in TOI for the Pens, and isn't really used on the PK. Last on the team in PK time, playoffs and regular season.

Petry is just a RH Quincey. That's not a particularly bad thing, but it doesn't really improve us either. I don't see why Edm would move him either, their defense is already terrible.

I know it's not necessarily what you mean, but it comes off kind of like you're saying we shouldn't be interested in the likes of Doughty, Pietrangelo, Jones, Hamilton... But seriously, the first criteria (other than availability) needs to be offensive potential instead of age, height, and weight requirements. Hitting, shot-blocking, or even actual defensive ability, is much less important. The main reason for targetting a RHer is what they add to the offense; primarily the PP. Lefties can play the right side just fine from defensive perspective. Stuart and Ericsson for example. It's much harder though to get the quick, accurate passing and shooting you need for a good PP or cycle. It would be great to get a total package player, but that's just highly unlikely, especially that young. Those guys get moved so rarely. Maybe if you want someone who's just mediocre at everything (like half your short list), but, well...Quincey. Obviously, we wouldn't want someone who's a real liability on defense but we don't need to limit ourselves to just studs either. We also have the ability to target a more defensive player, assuming we get rid of Kindl (or trade another defenseman from the roster). With Sproul and Marchenko (and possibly Jensen) on the horizon, we don't need to be all that concerned about age either. One or two years may be all we need, and anything four and up gives us plenty of time to develop the kids and/or find other options. It's not too uncommon for defensemen to play (and play well) into their mid and even late 30s. I wouldn't pass on someone just because they're over 30.

Probably not. Lot of people still value Helm too highly. Helm is not that much younger, and has a much worse injury history. Their style isn't that much different either. If I had to pick between 4 years of Kesler and 6-7 years of Helm I'd go with Kesler every time. I'm indifferent on Smith. I think he'll be a good player, but with everyone else we have I don't think losing him would hurt all that much. The sticking point for me would be the 1st. If it had to be a first and this year I'd want to wait to see who's still available. There's a few kids I think would be more valuable that what Kesler offers over Helm. (Alternately, if we could do it with someone below Helm, I'd part with the first more easily.)

Normally I tend to agree with you, but in this case I think you're off the mark. Dirtydangles posted a list showing that even with the loss of Jarnkrok we have more kids than we're likely to have room for, particularly on defense. And that's without adding any UFAs. We're not going to trade our way to being the Blackhawks or Bruins...trying would almost certainly fail as well as wrecking what future we've collected so far. But we do have some pieces to make some small moves, and small moves can sometimes have a big impact. I don't necessarily think this summer will be the best time for it, but we do have options. I was going to say this same thing. Most of Sheahan's best work has been right around the net. We have some good options at center, so we can afford to give him a look in that role. I don't think those guys would have much, if any, trade value. Almost certainly not enough to really fill a need. Ferraro would probably clear waivers, and could easily end up a career AHL'er. Callahan could go the same route, but he did have a nice year, and looked a little better in Detroit. Almquist might get a look from someone, since scoring defensemen are so valuable, but if I had to place any bets I'd say he's bound for Sweden.

I think you're guilty of trying to construct an argument to fit a desired conclusion. First, variations in production happen to almost every player. Nyquist earlier this year had a stretch of 1g in 18 games. He got hot, first playing with Zetterberg, stayed that way for a while then cooled off. Normal streakiness is a far more likely explanation than yours. That said, Datsyuk's return in addition to the team being in pretty good shape playoff-wise probably allowed him to relax a little, and may have played a part. But I don't think that has anything to do with development. But that leads to my second point: The way Nyquist was handled this year was not planned, nor was it standard practice for the Wings. So your entire argument, even if it did explain his late-season slump, is moot. Normal procedure, judging by past prospects, would have put Nyquist on the roster to start the year. Likely in a 3rd or even 4th line role, like Tatar, but possibly in a supporting role in the top 6. Basically, the smaller, more suitable role you mention. That is what we normally do. But injuries happen. When they do you don't really have any choice. If you start bringing guys up earlier, then when you have an emergency situation your call-ups are going to be younger. It'd be the exact same situation, just happening earlier in their development. The only thing really unnatural about Nyquist's development is the number of injuries we had to scorers. The way we handle our youth is not all that dissimilar to what most people suggest when they say we need to change what we're doing. Nor is it particularly different from the way the rest of the league does it. The biggest difference between us and the rest of the league has been our lack of high picks.

The futility of the argument aside, it's a false dilema. Trying to win now and trying to build a contender are not mutually exclusive.

Actually the question was, "What is more important". My answer to that being, "Neither". As to your follow-up, the obvious answer is we try to fix both. But opportunities are limited, so you take what you can get. You try to avoid weakening one for the other, but we have solid depth at both forward and defense, so we can afford either if a good opportunity arises. Given our specific situation, I think we need more immediate help on defense, but in the not too distant future we'll need forwards. I think it's a little too soon to get aggressive. Keep most of the prospects and kids, though giving up a couple wouldn't kill us. Of the vets, only Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Kronwall have significant certain trade value, and none would bring enough immediate return to offset their loss. I doubt any would bring even enough future return to make it worth it either. Franzen, Weiss, and Helm might have value, depending on how their health and performance holds up next year. Either way, I don't think there's much chance at any major moves right now. Maybe at the deadline next year, or more likely at the 2015 draft. Of course by then, depending on how the kids are looking, we might not need any moves.

Ritchie is a top 10 on most boards I've seen, as is Perlini. Tuch is probably the most likely big guy to be available, but this draft seems to be on the small side so it wouldn't surprise me if he gets taken early as well. But there is a chance one of them, or Virtanen, McCann, or Kempe could be available. I think any of them would be a good pick. If all six are gone I'd look for a trade.

Star power is not a good way to judge. Guys like Mitchell, Seidenberg, Scuderi, Orpik, Boychuk, Hjalmarsson might not be stars, but they're effective. Of the past 8 Cup winners: Average ranking in playoff scoring: 3.625 Average ranking in playoff defense: 2.875 Average regular season scoring: 7.375 Average regular season defense: 7 All 8 finished 6th or higher in playoff scoring (1 1st, 4 of 8 in the top 3) All 8 finished 5th or higher in playoff defense (3 finished 1st, 2 more 3rd) 7 of 8 finished 8th or higher in regular season scoring (4 of 8 finished 2nd or 3rd) 6 of 8 finished 7th or higher in regular season defense (4 of 8 finished 1st or 2nd) Only twice has a team won the Cup while finishing in the bottom half of the league in regular season defense Only once has a team won the Cup while finishing in the bottom half of the league in regular season scoring The numbers for the last 8 Cup runners-up are not too far off from that. The conclusion is evident. Winning a Cup, or even making the Finals, is pretty highly unlikely unless you're above average at both ends.

Last year the Pens...Crosby, Malkin, Neal, Iginla, Kunitz...managed just 2 goals in 4 games against the same team.