Theophany

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Everything posted by Theophany

  1. Theophany

    Can The Wings Win This Series?

    Then you're an irrational idiot. It's perfectly justifiable to say "they're done" after being down 3-0 in the series. There's a 1.8% chance to come back when down 3-0 in a series, enough that you'd get quite a lot of money if you bet on those odds in Vegas and won. Edit: it's not giving up, it's a statement of belief. Do I want the Wings to come back? Of course I do. I still watch as much of every game as work will allow me to. Do I think they will? No; I strongly believe in statistics and probability in these cases. Could they pull it off? There's a slim chance that they could, and that's why I still watch.
  2. Theophany

    Some possible NEEDED changes in the Offseason

    I'm guessing it'll be more than he's worth purely because of the run he's had thus far in the playoffs.
  3. Theophany

    Some possible NEEDED changes in the Offseason

    Ward is a UFA, genius.
  4. Do you understand what the salary cap is? Bieksa made $3.75m this season, and is due for more going forward. Unless Lidstrom retires, there's no way we afford Bieksa or any legitimate top six players. You guys should be looking at depth defensemen and depth forwards, rather than looking at top-tier talent. If we're going after top-tier talent, someone needs to go, like Franzen, Hudler, or Filppula.
  5. Theophany

    Nashville vs. Vancouver

    They're making offensive plays, but they're not doing anything on defense. It's awful to watch (well, not really since I want Vancouver out).
  6. Theophany

    Some possible NEEDED changes in the Offseason

    He's an RFA. I don't think Holland will give up draft picks for him, especially because IIRC it'd be a first and a third.
  7. Theophany

    Nashville vs. Vancouver

    The really humbling thing is that when the Sharks (or if by some miracle we come back and win the series) play the Canucks, it's all but over. The Sedins are awful in their own zone right now, and both the Sharks and DRW will expose that because of the great transition game both teams have. And I agree with you, I'm actually preferring Versus coverage for the Canucks games I've been watching just because the bias is so incredibly blatant on CBC.
  8. Theophany

    Some possible NEEDED changes in the Offseason

    Ward is a $1.5m cap hit at the moment, and may go up as high as $2.25m, but I doubt if he'll go any higher due to his relatively average regular seasons the past three years (25-35 pt player). The only reason he'd get more than about $1.75m is because of the postseason that he's having, otherwise he's a pretty average player, though I think he could do pretty well in Detroit or with another team that has some decent playmakers. I'd make him an offer and see how badly Nashville wants him, frankly. If his offers are around $2m though, I don't think I'd bother. He's 30, so you're not going to see a whole lot more out of him than you're currently seeing. Keep in mind we get better point totals out of Helm for ~60% of the guy's current cap hit.
  9. Theophany

    Nashville vs. Vancouver

    Joel Ward is a beast.
  10. Theophany

    Tampa Bay vs. Boston

    You obviously haven't been watching their games.
  11. Theophany

    Tampa Bay vs. Boston

    TBL in 6. Boston's PP is awful and TB is just too good top to bottom; their bottom six guys have really stepped up. Oh yeah, and Roloson; dude's aging like someone we all know and love on the Wings.
  12. Theophany

    Changes for Game 5

    Filppula - Datsyuk - Franzen Cleary - Zetterberg - Bertuzzi Draper - Helm - Eaves Hudler - Abdelkader - Mursak I'd roll these lines, tbh. Give the fourth 10:00 of ice, ride the third hard. Double shift Abby on the third if you need to.
  13. Theophany

    Some possible NEEDED changes in the Offseason

    You won't be getting Ehrhoff at $3m a year.
  14. Theophany

    Wings in Seven

    Can I borrow a time machine for a minute? I need to go back in time to place some bets on Philly during their Boston series last year.
  15. Theophany

    Some possible NEEDED changes in the Offseason

    If Miller doesn't come back, no skin off my back. Abdelkader could likely slot into his spot easily. This is also assuming that Draper wants to retire, because if not, Miller is gone and Draper takes his spot.
  16. Theophany

    Some possible NEEDED changes in the Offseason

    So after working with some numbers briefly, here's what I'd do in the case that Lidstrom doesn't come back. This is assuming the cap goes up ~$3m (though it doesn't matter because I'd still be under the current cap). CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR FORWARDS Pavel Datsyuk ($6.700m) / Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083m) / Tomas Holmstrom ($1.875m) Jiri Hudler ($2.875m) / Brooks Laich ($4.250m) / Johan Franzen ($3.954m) Todd Bertuzzi ($1.937m) / Valtteri Filppula ($3.000m) / Daniel Cleary ($2.800m) Drew Miller ($0.800m) / Darren Helm ($0.912m) / Patrick Eaves ($0.900m) Justin Abdelkader ($0.787m) DEFENSEMEN Niklas Kronwall ($3.000m) / Brad Stuart ($3.750m) Brian Rafalski ($6.000m) / Shane O'Brien ($1.600m) Ruslan Salei ($1.100m) / Andreas Lilja ($0.950m) Jakub Kindl ($0.883m) GOALTENDERS Jimmy Howard ($2.250m) / Ty Conklin ($1.750m) CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter) (these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion) SALARY CAP: $62,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $58,158,711; BONUSES: $0 CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $4,241,289 Brooks Laich, Shane O'Brien, Lilja, and Conklin are my only real additions. I like Laich because he's a physical guy who's also got some touch around the net. Perhaps overpaying a bit, but he would be an excellent second line center, allowing Fil to be a third center and allowing Dats and Z to play on the same line (or move Laich to the third, Z to the second, and Fil to wing). This is basically setting us up to get Suter after next season (he's going to be looking at a large pay upgrade that I don't think the Preds will pay). No, that's in case Lidstrom retires. if Lidstrom doesn't retire, here's what I'd go with: CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR FORWARDS Pavel Datsyuk ($6.700m) / Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083m) / Tomas Holmstrom ($1.875m) Jiri Hudler ($2.875m) / Brooks Laich ($4.250m) / Johan Franzen ($3.954m) Todd Bertuzzi ($1.937m) / Valtteri Filppula ($3.000m) / Daniel Cleary ($2.800m) Drew Miller ($0.800m) / Darren Helm ($0.912m) / Patrick Eaves ($0.900m) Justin Abdelkader ($0.787m) DEFENSEMEN Nicklas Lidstrom ($6.200m) / Brad Stuart ($3.750m) Niklas Kronwall ($3.000m) / Brian Rafalski ($6.000m) Jakub Kindl ($0.883m) / Andreas Lilja ($0.950m) GOALTENDERS Jimmy Howard ($2.250m) / Ty Conklin ($1.750m) CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter) (these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion) SALARY CAP: $62,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $61,658,711; BONUSES: $0 CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $741,289
  17. Theophany

    No lineup changes for Game 4

    I'm praying this is sarcasm that just went over my head. Your avatar is ruining this series, buddy. Thornton isn't so much as choking as he is running the f**k over us.
  18. Theophany

    Some possible NEEDED changes in the Offseason

    This may sound crazy, but how about the Wings focus on depth dmen instead of star dmen? Suter is an option after next year; I'd bide my time and wait for him. Here's what I'd go with on defense next year: Kronwall - Stuart O'Brien - Rafalski Salei - Lilja Kindl And then look at Suter next year (and possibly another top dman with Rafalski's money). As far as forwards, I'd look at Richards, Arnott, Handzus, Laich, maybe even Wellwood and Eager. I'd bring back Draper, Eaves, and Miller on a year-by-year basis, and as long as you get one or two of the guys above and focus on team defense, you'll do fine.
  19. Theophany

    Nashville vs. Vancouver

    Whoever comes out of the Wings/Sharks series is going to give the Canucks a run for their money, especially if it's the Sharks. I can't imagine the Sedins matching up against Thornton.
  20. Theophany

    Can The Wings Win This Series?

    Sorry, the DRW fan you're describing isn't me. I'm a realist.
  21. Theophany

    Evaluating the Rafalski "Deal"

    How is he not a huge piece of the puzzle on a team that drives our offense from outlet passing? We have five defensemen (six if you count Kindl in the press box) that are defense-first, yet three of them (Ericsson, Stuart, and Kindl) can't make 50% of their outlet passes to allow our forwards to make a meaningful entry into our offensive zone. Rafalski is and has been a huge part of making the Red Wings the Red Wings since the lockout; without him and Lidstrom playing the point and making their outlet passes, the Wings don't score as much as they do. It'll be interesting to see what people think when we don't have a great passing defenseman like Rafalski and instead have someone like Kindl or Ericsson in his place; this is really a case of "you don't know what you have until it's gone".
  22. Theophany

    Evaluating the Rafalski "Deal"

    This just in: Apparently a defenseman that gets 48 points in 63 games is terrible. You guys realize that had he kept that pace and played in all 82 games, he would have had the same number of points as Lidstrom? Lots of smart people around here.
  23. Theophany

    Can The Wings Win This Series?

    Yeah, I meant game four. My bad. ...I've been drinking a bit to drown my sorrows.
  24. Theophany

    Can The Wings Win This Series?

    Some? More like "a lot".
  25. Theophany

    Official "We Believe" Thread

    *cough*