kipwinger

I'm starting this thread with the purpose of having someplace to discuss the team's season in overview. I want to leave the GDT (if we're still doing that) for game by game commentary. But this, I hope, will allow us to contextualize our season. We can compare what we are saying at game 45 to what we were saying at game 15 and see what's changing as the season plays out. And the main thing I want to start with is the play of the kids. Much has been made of Lalonde's coaching, and a lot of the criticism is deserved, but since early in the season he's been giving a lot of big, important, minutes to Edvinsson, Kasper, and Berggren. Less so for Johansson, but the Maatta trade should change that a bit. And from a fan standpoint it's hard to be mad at the results. These guys aren't playing like superstars (although I'd argue Edvinsson is close already), but they've been really really good. Kasper is still a long way off from turning 21 and he's out there taking faceoffs (and winning them) against Syndey Crosby. Berggren has been making things happen all over the ice, but particularly in the offensive zone where his stats don't really tell the story of how good he's been at creating scoring opportunities for the Wings. And then there's Edvinsson. This guy is unreal. Watch how many plays he kills in the defensive zone with a simple poke check (his reach is insane) or by simply pinning his weight into a forward along the boards. He's got two fewer points than Seider (without powerplay time) and he's shouldering the same defensive matchups at even strength. He's still got things to learn (like not taking late penalties) but it's beginning to look like we've got another of the top young defenders in the league. And importantly, he's a defender that should be able to hang with bigger, tougher, playoff-type teams. If Lalonde really is coaching for the future, then by mid-season I'd like to see: 1. Marco's line seeing their ice time start creeping up at even strength (they're currently our 2nd best forward line) 2. Berggren getting top powerplay looks when guys like Kane, Raymond, Dcat, deal with injuries. 3. Edvinsson taking over the 2nd powerplay unit (Seider to the 1st) 4. Johansson as an everyday 3rd pair defender.

It's not about "being content" with it. It's just obvious that's what's going on. When Larkin, Seider, Raymond, Dcat, Edvinsson, Kasper, etc. get us to the playoffs...then we'll go big game hunting in FA to add the elite talent. And it's not like that's a crazy idea. Elite offensive guys like Rantanen and Marner are available almost every year. My personal preference would be to go get Pettersson right now while the price is (presumably) low. I saw some hockey media guy said the other day that Pettersson isn't well thought of around the league. Good. Buy low. I think you'd have to do something around an unprotected 1st OR Danielson but not both. That would give us this to build around: ???-Larkin-Raymond Dcat-Pettersson-??? Sodorblom-Kasper-??? Compher-Copp-Ras ???-Seider Edvinsson-??? Chiarot-??? And before we even think about UFA we have Mazur, MBN, Plante, Lombardi, Buchelnikov, ASP, Wallinder, Buium, Finnie, Cossa, and Augustine (I might be missing some too) to plug some of those holes. THAT'S a pretty solid place to build from. Add Provorov/Gavrikov and Will Cuylle from outside and you've got a genuine contender IMO.

Seth Jones played 26 minutes last night (and had a goal) in a huge win for Florida. I'm totally baffled by this because all the analytics dorks (particularly at The Athletic) have been dunking on that guy for years now. Like, he's supposed to be absolutely terrible right? How are we supposed to make sense of it? I mean, I watched a guy last night who looked like a total stud. But then again, Dom Luczszdanasdkon of the Athletic said he totally blows. What gives?

Article just dropped this week that said Larkin had the 2nd hardest forward usage IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE. Dude does yeoman’s work, and was injured at the 4 nations, and still scored 30 goals and 70 points. Most years he scores 80+ with that usage. As we get more depth that usage will ease and he’ll score 90+ on a winning team. Where does the depth come from? Maybe the 20 year old 2C who just broke out this season under McClellan. Raymond will score the same, 80-90 pts. Cat will score 35+ goals. Ed and Seider will lock down the back end. All we need is for our goalies to pan out and our core looks good. Then we just need to flesh out the lineup with quality depth and thankfully we have a ton of pieces to make it happen. Every team would be better with a MacKinnon or McDavid for sure. But lots of teams are winning playoff games right now without those guys so I don’t think the lack of a premium piece is our issue.

I think Yzerman is still building this "particularly deep" lineup. Add Danielson and ASP and Cossa and Augustine and Mazur and and and... Since SY has taken over the plan was never to build around Larkin. Larkin (if he's still around) will be the old man on the Cup team. Just like Yzerman was. The actual core of the team started with Seider. I think @Jimmybigrigs69said the exact same thing years ago. The Red Wings didn't win diddly squat when Yzerman was their best player. They started winning when Lidstrom and Fedorov were their best players. Florida won a President's Trophy BEFORE they traded for Tkachuk. Yzerman is building a team of work horses and then he's (hoping) to go get a superstar or two to put them over the top. And it's not like his track record on this has been bad. His workhorses keep exceeding expectations. He's accomplishing the mission. I think you could argue that it's the periphery moves that are killing the momentum. For example, we drafted TWO absolute units on defense and they're were/are both playing out of their minds at an EXTREMELY early part of their careers. Things couldn't have gone better with Seider and Edvinsson and our defense still blows because we've surrounded them with puds. And it's not like we just couldn't land better talent. We ALREADY HAD IT. Swap Walman, Gostisbehere, and Maatta for Gustafsson, Petry, and Holl and your defense isn't a total nightmare. Keep one of Sprong or Fabbri instead of Motte and maybe our even strength scoring isn't absolutely abysmal. Swap Perron for Tarasenko and your team has a pulse... ...then add the Edvinsson, Kasper, Johansson, Sodorblom that we saw this season and you're looking at a much better team. Maybe not a contender, but a playoff team for sure. And you keep building from there. Nobody can blame this season on "too many kids, not enough experience". Our pro scouting has absolutely f*cked this team for two seasons in a row. Combined with the fact that Lalonde (and the organization as whole) has a default preference for milktoast puds who "defend well" over dynamic players who bring a number of other elements to the table. They justified Motte's roster spot because of his PK "prowess" and our PK is historically bad. Gustafson was supposed to be a cheaper, more defensively responsible, version of Ghost. In reality he's barely cheaper and no better defensively, but MUCH worse offensively. Tarasenko costs more, and scores less than any of Fabbri, Perron, or Sprong. There's no problem with Yzerman's plan (build around HIS draft picks). That's actually going really really well. The problem is that no team is built entirely of their own draft picks. And when SY and the gang flesh out the rest of the roster they routinely shoot themselves in the foot.

I don't agree with your conclusions. Recent history has shown that deep teams, with more top end talent throughout their lineup, are better than teams that have elite top end talent but not as much depth. I can't imagine too many GMs would rather be Edmonton than Florida despite the fact that the Oilers have the better "difference makers". Contrary to what most people think, I don't believe we need those pad the stats guys. We need guys that will allow Seider to go from 45 points to 65 (think Duncan Keith) points and still be a rock defensively. We need the guy who eats some defensive zone starts so Larkin can stay healthy and score 95 points. Same with Raymond. We haven't had those guys because we've've lacked qualtiy depth forever. So our top end guys get keyed on. Depth changes that. If Marco Kasper can eat those "Anthony Cirelli" type minutes, then Larkin gets to play "Brayden Point" type minutes. Same with Raymond and Seider. Those guys stand to gain a lot when they're not eating the best the opposition can throw at them for 20 mins a night.

I feel like this Pettersson situation is a lot like the Eichel one with respect to how the Wings should view it. I recall everyone in the league being afraid that Eichel's injuries would prevent him from living up to his lofty contract. Scared more than a view potential suitors away. But we're a team without an elite offensive center, and those players are REALLY hard to get ahold of. It was clearly a gamble for Vegas, but it was worth the risk in acquiring Eichel because they didn't have an elite center either. Nobody is going to hand you a top end 25 year old stud center for no good reason. Anyone available is going to have a question mark or two. With Pettersson the question mark has never been about his scoring. It's more than he doesn't really have that "killer instinct" that any decent 1C needs to thrive in the NHL. He's wilts when he's the top guy. But Larkin is the compliment to that. He's been getting nearly crippled (Jamie Benn? Mathieu Joseph?) for years because of all the hard minutes he plays and HE STILL scores 70-80 points. Give him the hard minutes and Pettersson the soft ones. It's the same deployment Edmonton uses with McDavid and Draisaitl. Watch them play, McDavid gets the soft minutes because he can score a zillion points if he doesn't also have to check top players (something he blows at). Meanwhile, Edmonton has a workhorse 2C that can eat the hard minutes AND provide offense. It's not a bad "direction" for the team IMO.

Look, I don't love Pettersson as a player. I think his game is too soft to be an effective 1C. And I think Larkin's offensive game isn't quite good enough to be a high-end 1C. AND we aren't getting a MacKinnon, Barkov, Matthews, etc. any time soon. So we are going to have to do things by committee to some extent. Pettersson has shown that if you have another center to log the heavy minutes (something Larkin has been doing for years) that he can deliver elite offensive outcomes...something we badly need. Trading one for the other would just be an exercise in "digging one hole to fill in another", but together they might add up to a winning recipe. I don't like the contract either, but I'd take solace in the fact that A) the cap is going way up, and B) we have Larkin, Raymond, and Seider on less-than-market-value deals already. If you can get them to take a bad contract (Tarasenko) in return to make the trade work then Pettersson's deal isn't really that big of a problem going forward.

Or we'd send someone on an expiring contract, like Tarasenko, to offset the cost. There's always somebody thrown into each trade just to make the money work.

Not to mention he's nowhere near as good as Larkin on a much worse contract. Hard pass. But... Given that Marco is looking really really good, I'd take Pettersson for something centered around Danielson tho. Larkin, Pettersson, Kasper down the middle would give McClellan a million options next fall. Let Larkin take the tough matchups, which he's used to (and that Pettersson can't handle). Give Pettersson the sheltered offensive minutes, which he's better at than Larkin anyway. And then absolutely cook teams with something like Sodorblom-Kasper-Berggren/Mazur on your third line. All for the cost of a really good prospect that we'd no longer need. Edit: Basically look at the trade that sent Sam Reinhart to Florida. A lottery protected 1st and a good but not great prospect (Devon Levi). I'd imagine any trade for Pettersson would look something like that.

Larkin is getting torched on Reddit for saying something that any Red Wings fan with eyes could see for themselves the last two seasons. The TDL is a time of extreme stress and uncertainty for players on bad teams. These guys genuinely have no idea whether they're going to lose friends, or have to uproot their families, or just "fold" on the season because your GM decided you were a "seller" again this year. So to put them through it year after year after year without committing to any particular direction is completely tone deaf. It drives ME nuts to see a flawed team that neither sells nor adds. I can't imagine how the players feel about it. What even is the point? It's clear going into the deadline that we're not good enough, everyone (including SY) can see it so obviously , and yet he decides to...bring in Craig Smith? Why even bother? Wouldn't the team have been better off just keeping Veleno...a guy they all loved?

Re-sign Kane. Sign Ehlers and Provorov. Trade for Cuylle (Tarasenko, Berggren, plus whatever else). If you can't trade Tarasenko then buy him out and waive Holl. Ehlers provides more pure skill to the lineup and is a really good producer of even strength offense. Cuylle also provides really good even strength offense and plays big and heavy. Provorov can handle 20 minutes a night, is a solid defender, has size, and provides complimentary offense from the back end. Cuylle-Larkin-Raymond Debrincat-Kasper-Ehlers Sodorblom-Compher-Kane Ras-Copp-Mazur Provorov-Seider Edvinsson-Johansson Chiarot-ASP Talbot Mrazek

Marner is a p*ssy. No thanks.

That said, I also think Debrincat counts. We technically did trade for him, but his contract was expiring and we had a new deal in place before the trade was completed.

Hossa

That guy's a f*cking disgrace! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Vl8yXfnSMw&pp=ygUSZGlzZ3JhY2Ugc2xhcCBzaG90 Edit: Seriously though, leave this kid in the NCAA for his full term and let him develop his game more. Give him ample time to learn to defend properly, but at the same time let him get some of those offensive minutes as he becomes an upper classman on the team. If we can get to the point where he can kill penalties, defense at even strength, and just break the puck out I'd let him be my 6D any day of the week. Basically be Erik Cernak 2.0. Because how on earth do you not like that aggressiveness?

I know you're being glib, so I'm not taking your post TOO seriously but Marco and Edvinsson were genuinely better options than roughly 90% of the veterans available on any given night. Scott was right about that. The point is that's ALL we should have done. Keep Walman, keep Ghost, keep Perron/Fabbri/Sprong...just ADD EDVINSSON AND KASPER! It makes me feel crazy but it's so simple right? Why on earth did we give away better players and then pay the same money for worse ones? In what universe is Petry/Holl/Gustafsson a more capable defensive unit than Walman/Maatta/Edvinsson? Or Walman/Gost/Edvinsson? And you can't say "well nobody would want Petry or Holl" because we had to PAY someone to take Walman! Why not waive Petry, pay someone to take Holl, and then never sign Gustafsson? You could have added Berggren and Kasper to last season's lineup simply by...wait for it...not signing Tarasenko and Motte. That's all you had to do. I think that's probably was always implied in Scott's argument right? Get rid of the losers and bring in the kids? Only this time we kept all the losers, signed more losers, traded away actual contributors, and then brought up the kids. Hardly the same thing. It really is that simple. SY just chose the wrong guys.

In any other market he would have gotten roasted for the Walman trade alone. Forget the parts where he let all his decent defenders go and then stunk defensively. Or how he traded lost Fabbri, Sprong, and Perron, didn't replace those goals, and then predictably didn't have any even strength scoring all season long.

At forward I'd target Ehlers and one of Will Cuylle or Lawson Crouse via trade. On defense I'd look at Mason Lohrei from the Bruins. He's a big lefty that is an RFA with arbitration rights. Could be Yzerman's Red Wings version of Sergachev.

The Griffins' talented play-by-play man, Bob Kaser, filled in for Ken Daniels last night because Ken was tasked with calling the Montreal game. During the broadcast Kaser mentioned that you could visibly see the Griffins' locker room get a boost when they got Auston Watson and Dominik Shine back from their NHL call ups in March. The Griffs were struggling through a huge slump and had lost a bunch of games before those guys came back. They couldn't score apparently. After getting Watson and Shine back they broke their slump and outscored their opponents by some crazy margin. Those guys aren't superstars, they were just badly needed reinforcements for a squad that was absolutely going through it. That's the kind of thing I mean when I say SY doesn't pay attention to the mental state of the team. The answer is always "tough it out" from management. But what happens when they've been toughing it out all season already? How do you tell Edvinsson, Marco, or Johansson to do more than they're already doing as a rookies? How do you tell Seider he's going to get even tougher matchups than he's already facing? How do you tell Larkin that it's open season on his head by every rat in the league because every team knows we've only got one decent center to match up with? For the 2nd year in a row we've watched management run these guys into the ground and then punt the second they have an opportunity to lighten the load a bit. In Larkin's case this has been going on his entire career. He's never had even a decent 2C to share tough minutes with. Seider only finally got Edvinsson to help him out, but A) nobody knew Edvinsson would be so good, and B) SY did everything he could to make the defense WORSE than it was a year ago prior to the season. In "Work Me Lord", Janis Joplin sang: You ain't gonna find anybody who can say that they tried like I tried. How do you keep telling that person to tough it out until next year...over and over and over? Janis goes on to say: Can I show you how hard it is Trying to live when you're all alone? Everyday I keep pushing Keep trying to move forward But something is driving me, oh, back And something's trying to hold on to me Maybe it was the depression, or the alcohol, or the drugs, or maybe...just maybe...Steve Yzerman was her General Manager.

The Four Nations tourney was a disaster for teams, despite how obviously successful it was for the league. The NHL asked these guys to play in playoff caliber games in the middle of the season. Guys get absolutely f*cked up in the playoffs every year, specifically because the games are so intense and the league thought it was a good idea to do that IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SEASON! Charlie McAvoy was injured for the rest of the year. Matthew Tkachuk was injured for the remainder of the regular season. Larkin and Raymond experienced obvious drop-offs afterward; maybe due to the intensity of the games, maybe due to injuries sustained, maybe due to the fact that they were asked to play in extremely high profile games right before making a playoff push. In any case, they weren't the same players after the tourney as they were during or before it. But what killed our season was the back-to-back against Columbus. We were sitting in a Wild Card spot with points in hand against Ottawa. If we'd won those games (or even one of them) we'd have been like six points up with a game in hand. Instead we walked away with nothing AND got absolutely spanked. It was deflating and we never recovered. I also think the lack of moves at the trade deadline killed us again. I seriously don't think SY pays enough attention to the mental/emotional state of his players. You can't ask guys like Seider and Larkin (or the goalies) to get absolutely mauled all season long and then do nothing to help them down the stretch. It kills them, year after year. Imagine busting your ass every night (and getting the hell beat out of you too!), all while laboring under the hope that maybe your GM will get you some help at the deadline. And then nothing happens...again...year after year. You absolutely CANNOT compete in the modern NHL with the defense we just iced for a whole season. SY says the team HAS to be better defensively and then moves on from Walman, Maatta, and Gostisbehere while icing a roster with Holl, Peter, and Gustafsson. HOW??? Like, HOW was that going to make us better defensively? There were many critical moments during the season when a variety of Red Wings, from management to the coach to the players, had opportunities to step up and make something happen. Instead we got a HUGE dropoff from our best players after the 4 Nations, back to back losses to Columbus, a humiliating final game against Montreal, Craig Smith at the trade deadline, and Holl/Petry/Motte playing big roles on a historically bad PK.

Here's where I'm at with the season: I understand that for good or ill, SY is putting all his chips behind the kids he drafted. We shouldn't expect outside help until THOSE kids put this team into the playoffs. THEN he'll make the kinds of deals we all wish he'd make. Until then he's not buying and he's not selling. So what does that mean? It means that Larkin should continue to see hard defensive matchups AND the best defensive forwards the opposition can throw at him. There may come a time when Kasper or Danielson will eat some of those tougher minutes and Larkin gets freed up to play offense...but we aren't there yet. Until then he HAS to perform better than he did in the second half of this season. I get that he's worn completely out (because he's the only quality center we have) but he can't disappear like this anymore. He's got at least one more year of getting worked night in and night out before he gets those easier minutes. He better text Mark Scheiffle and see what the secret is. Speaking of Kasper, it should be obvious to guys like him, Edvinsson, and Berggren that there are spots available for the taking on this team. Kane is probably gone, so we're going to need playmaking off the wing. Berggren better have the best offseason of his life because the ice time is there. Likewise, it should be obvious to Marco that neither Compher nor Copp are obviously higher in the depth chart than he is. That 2C spot is his if he can take it. Same for Edvinsson on the 2nd powerplay unit. His even strength scoring and defense are already good, here's a chance for him to go from a 40ish point defenseman to a 60ish point defenseman. Better step up. Speaking of stepping up: Seider and Raymond need to take over at their positions. They're still riding high of their rookie seasons and that is ancient history. If Lucas wants to be a top young winger in the NHL he needs to start taking games over with regularity AND he can't disappear when games matter (down the stretch this season AND last). Same with Seider. You wanna be talked about in the same breath as the Dahlins, Heiskanens, Hughes, and Makars? Make a difference every single night. Right now is when he determines whether he's a good defenseman or a great one, but he was pretty absent lately too. I get that he gets tough matchups. I get that he defends well. But to be elite he needs to be on the score sheet most nights, and he needs a good portion of those points to come at even strength. Let's see what kind of a player he is. Outside of that I won't waste too much breathe. We all know who's disposable, we all know who's coming, we all know what we're getting from the mid level guys. We also all know that we need help on defense from outside the organization (SY???). But none of that really matters if Lucas and Seider don't take another step and become elite. Or if Marco doesn't take over as a hard minutes 2C (think Kesler or O'Reilly). Or if Edvinsson doesn't become a two-way force in his own right. Or if Larkin doesn't embrace the suck for a while longer because he believes in the payoff. Thankfully I don't think those things are especially unrealistic given what we've seen from each of those players up to this point.

I didnt see his original post so take this with all appropriate caveats… I dont think there is any bias. The Red Wings were one of the leagues best and most profitable businesses for 25 years. The league also has profit sharing (in the form of “hockey related revenue”). Why would the league actively collude to undermine a profitable team with the full understanding that it would take money away from every other team too? Which owner or GM would hatch that plot? Instead they’ve undergone expansion (Vegas, Seattle) lately with the expressed goal of increasing hockey related revenue. The league wants a bigger pie to split up between the owners. Why would they then turn around and decrease the size of it by deliberately ruining a top earning team on purpose? It doesn’t make any sense. None of which is to say that the Wings haven’t had things to gripe about. They do. But there’s no conspiracy here because conspirators don’t typically hatch plots that ultimately only cost themselves millions of dollars in lost revenue.

Apparently he’s been really good in the playoffs in a limited role. I think he’s going to be a really solid power forward for us. A lot of fans don’t realize that underage players, even really great ones, don’t play a lot of minutes in the SHL. Sandin Pellikka gets 2nd pair minutes. MBN is on the fourth line. Neither Kasper nor Raymond were ever top line players in the SHL. Neither was Edvinsson. Euro leagues heavily favor veteran players because of the club system.

Id second this. Seems like Walman 2.0 in terms of the on-ice product. I love depth defensemen with really good even strength scoring. Those are guys who are winning the puck.