ChristopherReevesLegs

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Everything posted by ChristopherReevesLegs

  1. ChristopherReevesLegs

    WCF: San Jose Sharks vs. St Louis Blues

    It's called snapchatting 16 candles man
  2. ChristopherReevesLegs

    WCF: San Jose Sharks vs. St Louis Blues

    Oof fam, you got me shook. Why you low-key big mad? Burnsie's pony tail is straight drippin'. Deadass. Facts YEE YEE. Just take the L my boiiii
  3. ChristopherReevesLegs

    2019 Draft

    5% - Petr Sykora 10% - Martin Frk 25% - Jiri Hudler 35% - Tomas Tatar 20% - Martin Havlat 15% - Milan Hejduk 0% - Jaromir Jagr
  4. ChristopherReevesLegs

    News From Around the NHL

    RIP D-boss's D... he took one for America
  5. ChristopherReevesLegs

    2019 Draft

    Either Zadina becomes Marian Hossa by game one of 2019/20 season or I'm gonna freakout and break stuff
  6. ChristopherReevesLegs

    2019 Draft

    I forget who said it, but I remember hearing on some podcast that Huds would show up to almost every game with a new chick on his arm and they were always gorgeous. Coulda been hookers, but still, Huds was lowkey the man.
  7. ChristopherReevesLegs

    2019 Draft

    If I could pick a Red Wing to go out and have a beer with they'd be in this order: 1. Jiri Hudler 2. Sean Avery 3. Chris Chelios 4. Tomas Holmstrom 5. Todd Bertuzzi I get the feeling the Zetterberg's and Lidstrom's of the world would be incredibly boring after the initial star shock subsides
  8. ChristopherReevesLegs

    2019 Draft

    Sure, 57 games of North American hockey I guess is an excuse. "The Q is garbage" really isn't that much of a thing anymore though. I assume you're making that statement based on the old axiom that the Q is super high-scoring and doesn't play physical hockey. That may have still been true in the 90s and 00's, but it's not the same league where every team hits 200+ goals every season anymore though. Scoring among the OHL, WHL, and QMJHL has mostly equalized. I watch OHL and WHL games more than anything, but I'd say anecdotally, over the past 20-25 years, physicality in the OHL and WHL has greatly declined. I honestly don't notice a huge difference between CHL leagues anymore. Also, sure Zadina was a very dominant player in the Q, but it's not like he ran away with the league or anything. He wasn't even in top 5 in league wide scoring, and wasn't even the scoring leader on his team in his draft year. It's a nice narrative, but I'm not sure I buy it. That said, obviously I do think he'll get better with time. I said in November when Zadina was struggling that he needs to adjust to the faster timing in the AHL if he's gonna unload his shot. He still needs to work on that IMO. I don't think that's a product of the Q though, I think that's just a player who failed to adjust early on and struggled because of it.
  9. ChristopherReevesLegs

    2019 Draft

    Let me change my comparison from Tatar to Hudler. I mostly only used Tatar because he's a 50-60 pt player and he's fresh in our minds. I choose Hudler because that would be my worry of what Zadina would become. A player who is extremely offensively gifted, but off the puck is completely forgettable. A player who you pair with Nielsen and he gets you 40-50 pts, but when you pair him with Larkin he gets you 70+ pts. To be fair, I think Zadina is faster than Hudler, more engaged than Hudler, and has better hands than Hudler. So more like Hudler+. I just want to see him clean up his defense and grab the reigns to generate offense on his own unlike Hudler ever did. Tatar on the otherhand I think is actually a super well-rounded winger. He just tops out at like 60 pts a season, whereas a player like Huds could garner 70+ in the right position and with the right linemates.
  10. ChristopherReevesLegs

    2019 Draft

    I'm using numbers to quantify my POV. Unfortunately that's all we have some times. Defensive acumen is particularly difficult to quantify. I'd love to see some numbers to quantify the opposite POV, but they don't seem to exist. Of course you can give me your own personal qualitative scouting report, but I'll just have to take your word on that. Mine is, I like his commitment to defense and effort on the back check. I think he's good at stealing the puck with his stick. However he seems to get scored on an awful lot. I dunno if that's positioning or systems or what though. Just disagreed in general. I think he played with pretty decent AHLers who are consistently in the top of the AHL in scoring, that should've helped him if anything. I dunno much about his lack of production. He plays in the VHL and MHL, which from my understanding are pretty garbage leagues, so he probably should have been lighting them up if he's sucha great player. His highlight reel goals are pretty dope. Watch him be the next Jurco.
  11. ChristopherReevesLegs

    2019 Draft

    Also Pronman's ranking are out on the Athletic. This guy ranks his prospects purely on what he believes to be their absolute ceiling. 1. Hughes 2. Kakko 3. Turcotte 4. Byram 5. Caufield 6. Zegras 7. Cozens 8. Boldy 9. Broberg 10. Dach Is Podkolzin the most volatile prospect? One minute he's top 5 in the minds of the hockey world, the next he's approaching a high 2nd rounder.
  12. ChristopherReevesLegs

    2019 Draft

    To be clear, I had him, and others did as well, penciled in at #3 Then he dropped into our laps at #6 and much rejoicing was had... I still think of him as the #3 though. Same thing with Veleno. I don't really have #30 expectations for Veleno, I have 10-15 expectations of him. With Zadina I have Top3/Top5 expectations. So yeah I'm disappointed that the guy I had ranked above his classmates had a mediocre season in the AHL while his classmates are contributing in the NHL. I'm beginning to think we have more of a 5-10 prospect like Rasmussen on our hands with Zadina, and not so much a Top3/Top5 guy. But again, that's my reflection on his first season. I will certainly change my mind if he explodes next season, or in a few seasons. I don't like to buy too much into the hype and just assume guys will explode. Something nice about Zadina: I like how Zadina back checks. He's certainly not lazy, and he has the ability to pilfer pucks like Datsyuk when he wants to. Something not-nice about Zadina: "muh -17" seriously. The only counter I've heard to this is "he young" "+/- stupid". I agree he's young, but he's also a top3/top5 ranked pick who was advertised as having no defensive faults to his game. I have higher expectations of him than say a 19/20 3rd round pick. And I agree +/- is not often a very reliable stat, but it's not completely valueless either. The context of his -17 is what matters. This was a playoff team he was -17 on, that's not good. The next closest guy on the team was -7, that's not good. Most of his line-mates were positive, that's not good. During his small sample size in the NHL he was on pace to have a -45 NHL season, that's not good. Of 1257 AHL players he was top 35 in the league for worst +/-, that's not good. At some point my flags start going up, and I'm certainly not going to bury my head in the sand about it. It is my right as an LGW reboot account to trash any player I want and concern troll the board. I just will never buy this sort of excuse. He's good at creating offense... but he didn't create a lot of offense. His linemates weren't good enough... but many outscored him. Is it his linemates fault because they process the pro game differently? Or does Zadina need to better adapt to the pro game? The team put good AHLers around him. That should be a plus not a minus to Zadina's play.
  13. ChristopherReevesLegs

    2019 Draft

    No one asked who you'd take given the choice. Kotkaniemi amassed NHL points. Zadina amassed AHL points. Kotkaniemi was a higehr draft pick. Zadina was a lower one. One is literally higher than the other. Your personal opinion has no bearing. Kotkaniemi has way more value as a player at the current moment. Meh I think Zadina probably could've been taken at 9 just like Rasmussen He was 18 this season for all of less than two months. He's one of the oldest players in his draft class, which is the reason he's even in the AHL in the first place. His younger class mates drafted in the top 5 are already on their NHL teams contributing in middle six roles. Our boy is also in a middle six role... in the AHL, and is -17 on a playoff team. I agree he needs to work on some things, but I am not pleased by the amount he still needs to work on. He was advertised as a probable #3 pick who could step right on to a team and perform offensively and defensively. He was certainly not capable of either in his first year. I'm ok with this fact, but I'm certainly not thrilled by it. I think Zadina's offensive abilities are astute. But he was also on pace for -45 in his 9 game NHL debut. From what I've seen he's closer to Hudler than Hossa. I mean allow me to be frank and forthright, but I think this whole line of thinking is BS and counterproductive. Accusing people of trolling and calling folks dumb for having a dissenting opinion serves no one. I have been pretty forthright in this thread, and have presented a multitude of evidence and reasoning to back my opinion. Most of the counter argument still seems to boil down to "he young, you dumb troll". He is young, I'm not doubting he could be the next Kucherov at 21. But right now I believe I have legit concerns. Just like I had concerns about Mrazek and Smith. If ya'll wanna bury your heads and create an echo chamber where Zadina can do no wrong by all means go for it. Ill be in a separate thread critically analyzing the player on a real-time basis. My opinion of the player adapts with his performance. I think we should treat most players this way.
  14. ChristopherReevesLegs

    2019 Draft

    Yeah... that's exactly what I said: Kotkaniemi literally is better than Zadina right now. One scored 34 pts as a full time NHLer, the other scored 35 pts as a fulltime AHLer. Of course that can change in the future, I'm not denying that. Would you rather discuss Rasmussen? He projected to score only about 35 pts in the AHL this year. Granted he only averaged a very limited 16 shifts a game in the NHL this year. Kids a big ol busterooni
  15. ChristopherReevesLegs

    2019 Draft

    Well yeah duh. All the translation factor is is a rough way to compare production league to league. Unfortunately hockey abstract didn't publish the data set. Otherwise we'd have a nice bell curve distribution spread where we could find the standard deviations per each confidence interval. If we had that we could say something like: "With 90% certainty Zadina would have scored somewhere in the range of 12 and 22 points during a full 2018/19 NHL season". The translation factor is more or less a laymen's way of applying that bell curve. So instead of a range of 12-22 and a confidence interval, we get... "something around 17" Well of course, that's how statistics work. There are outliers at either end of the bell curve. Jan Mursak and Teemu Pulkkinen were both pretty dominant in the AHL, but that production translated almost zero into the NHL. They would be at the opposite end of the curve from Forsberg and Zibenajad. That's just two examples. I'm sure there are many others. The real bulk of players are hovering around that 0.47 number though. That's why hockey abstract arrived at that number. And with the amount of data points in that set it's more than likely a pretty reliable metric. Outliers will exist in any data set, but they only account for a very small number. Pulkkinen and Forsberg both aren't normal. You said maybe he could score 25, 35, or 45 pts in the NHL this year about a page back. I think 25 is fairly accurate, 35 is pushing it, and 45 is unrealistic. If we go off Zadina's 9 game NHL sample he was on pace for 27 pts this year. However, he was also on pace to be -45 on the season. Again, I'm not happy about his defensive acumen, especially after he was described as a 200 ft winger. I think it's one of the primary reasons he never got called up for a significant amount of time like his draft mates did.
  16. ChristopherReevesLegs

    Mantha Blossoming

    The whole hyphenated last name thing is dinkish in general "Taking only your fathers last name is misogyny REEEEEEEE" - Ryan's mom "Please just don't leave me like my first wife" - Ryan's dad Thus Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is born. One day, Ryan is playing hockey at the LCA when he meets the most beautiful woman in the world: Carley Johnston. They fall in love and have a beautiful baby boy. Now Ryan, being a progressive man from a progressive family, decides they better carry on the tradition and hyphenate those last names! Thus Michael Johnston-Nugent-Hopkins is born. The cycle continues until we produce a hockey player that has a name plate so wide that he can do shoulder shrugs until he takes flight and sores among the rafters raining lacrosse style shots on goal from above. Ekman-Larsson is a dink too
  17. ChristopherReevesLegs

    2019 Draft

    Paper?... I mean, the translation factor is a pretty reliable metric. Pretty much every player takes a production hit going from the AHL to NHL. Anthony Mantha 2016/17: GRR: 10 pts in 10 GP ------> DET: 36 pts in 60 GP ------> From 100% scoring rate to 60% Tyler Bertuzzi 2017/18: GRR: 14 pts in 16 GP ------> DET: 24 pts in 48 GP ------> From 88% scoring rate to 50% Andreas Athanasiou 2015/16: GRR: 16 pts in 26 GP ------> DET: 14 pts in 37 GP ------> From 62% scoring rate to 38% Christopher Ehn 2018/19: GRR: 7 pts in 17 GP --------> DET: 9 pts in 60 GP -------> From 42% scoring rate to 15% Filip Zadina 2018/19: GRR: 35 pts in 59 GP ------> DET: 3 pts in 9 GP ---------> From 60% scoring rate to 33% These 5 forwards would have an average translation factor of just north of 0.5, which is higher than the 2017 average, but that makes sense considering there's 4 very talented offensive players in that lot. As a general rule, take what a player produced in the AHL, half it, and that's about what a player's NHL production would be in the same year. Is Zadina the magical unicorn that can somehow score more in a higher league than he can in a lesser? I highly doubt it. No, I don't think Zadina will bust, but I'm going to be extremely disappointed if he tops out at Tatar/Hudler level Again, I agree +/- is inconsequential most of the time, but being -17 on a playoff team and having one of the worst +/- league wide is saying something. I don't know if there's a fire yet, but there's definitely smoke. And I'm not going to ignore how players perform just because they're rookies, just like I wouldn't ignore Kronwall's declining production because he's old, or Hicketts play because he's small.
  18. ChristopherReevesLegs

    2019 Draft

    This shouldn't have to be said, but a 35 pt AHL =/= a 35 pt NHL player The translation factor for the AHL to NHL was 0.47 as of 2017. That would put Zadina roughly at 17 pts in 59 NHL games, or about 23 pts in a full NHL season. I certainly think Cholowski's NHL +/- is a cause for concern. That roughly tells me he's a rookie Dman who's not ready for defense at the NHL level yet. I also think Zadina's AHL +/- is a cause for concern. That roughly tells me he's a rookie winger who was not ready for defense at the AHL level yet. The takeaway point being that Zadina is struggling to master the AHL, while his fellow classmates are already having successful NHL rookie seasons. Zadina was overhyped. Never shoulda been ranked 3, or even top 5. He's a 5-10 level prospect.
  19. ChristopherReevesLegs

    Mantha Blossoming

    Well the one guy who fleeced Holland is ours now lol To be fair with the Quincey trade... Holland had just lost Raffi to a surprise early retirement, and was preparing to lose Lidstrom and Stuart. That's your #1, #2, and #4 Dmen suddenly disappearing. The blue line was literally hemorrhaging and he was trying to supplement it anyway possible. Looking back, probably should have not done the Q trade and started rebuilding during the 2012/13 season. But we still had Datsyuk and Z and ownership was probably telling him to keep going for it.
  20. ChristopherReevesLegs

    Mantha Blossoming

    Mantha can't even outscore Michael Frolik at worlds lol kid sucks
  21. ChristopherReevesLegs

    2019 Draft

    Normally I'd agree, +/- is usually not very useful and I don't often put too much stock into it I think it's worth noting in this instance though, because Zadina's +/- jumps off the page He's -17 on team where the next worst is -7. His worst line-mate was Ford at -6. Many of his line-mates were positive. 1257 players played in the AHL last year. Zadina ranked 1224 in plus/minus. 1257 being the worst. That's a big yikes. This was an AHL playoff team too, it's not like we are looking at a god awful AHL team here.
  22. ChristopherReevesLegs

    2019 Draft

    So Zadina would have had a 35 pt NHL season this year had he played in MTL? Yet he could only muster 35 pts in the AHL with us.... Hmmmm Oh yeah, what's the fallacy?
  23. ChristopherReevesLegs

    2019 Draft

    Disagree No Disagree Agreed defense can be taught. I didn't call him a bust. Zadina was supposed to be right in the mix with Svechnikov, Tkachuk, and Kotkaniemi, and all three of those players have full seasons under their belt already with a good amount of points. Meanwhile in Detroit, Zadina couldn't make our awful roster... and could only muster 35 AHL pts, while being -17... we got duped I read through old draft day profiles and everyone describes Zadina as basically having no faults lol sound two way forward who can jump right in lol sure
  24. ChristopherReevesLegs

    Blashill Coaching Team USA Again

    Just a gut feeling. Unless Blash really turns things around I think he has about 2, maybe 3, seasons left here.
  25. ChristopherReevesLegs

    Mantha Blossoming

    AA is basically Larkin if you took out his brain stem. Breakaway specialist. If we can get a Dman for him you do it. Bertuzzi and Mantha way more valuable, way more complete players. AA is the type of player who scores 40 goals for you but is -10 and you wonder why till it's too late.