Dabura

Some people in Habs Land are seizing on things Danault said after the Habs were eliminated. They were basically nothing comments, but it's Montreal, so people are talking about Danault now. https://www.spectorshockey.net/2020/08/nhl-rumor-mill-august-31-2020/ I don't think he's unhappy in Montreal and I doubt Bergevin considers him expendable. But, like I said, their center depth chart is looking a little crowded. That could be a problem for Bergevin if Danault wants to be guaranteed top-six minutes and get paid like a Selke-caliber 2C instead of a Selke-caliber 3C. So, Danault is more expendable now than he was at the start of this season. Right, but we can't wait. I'm saying we need that player *now*. Count the number of 27-year-old borderline-Selke-caliber guys on this list: Nugent-Hopkins fits that profile. But 1) I doubt Holland lets him go, and 2) we'd probably have to pay out the ass to lure him to Detroit. Granlund is a good player, but not a centerman's centerman. The Preds have to part with either him or Craig Smith (who's a full-time winger, not a centerman) and it's probably going to be Smith. I think we should sign Smith, but with the understanding that he's a winger. Soderberg and Namestnikov are not guys I'd feel comfortable hard-matching against top talent. Haula's a big question mark; I don't know what he is at this point in his career. Not even sure he's a true centerman. Mmmmmmaybe Janmark?

True, I don't know that Bergevin has or will have any appetite for moving Danault. But the argument could be made that it's starting to get a little crowded at center on that team (Danault, Suzuki, Domi, Kotkaniemi). If Danault's being a bit of a malcontent, maybe Bergevin decides to trade him and sign a UFA replacement. For us, it'd make sense to look for a Danault type in UFAgency. I agree with that. ...Sort of. My hangup is that I really like Danault. I don't think of him as a bottom-sixer, I think of him as a borderline-Selke-caliber rock who can be hard-matched against top talent every night and still put up 45+ points. *shrug*

We need legit center help and we need it yesterday, even if the plan is to suck. Veleno's coming off a could've-been-better AHL rookie season. I don't know when he's going to be ready. I certainly don't know when or if he's going to be as good an NHL centerman as Danault. Danault's a low-key outstanding veteran shutdown centerman: https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/d/danauph01-advanced-ev.html Add Danault and Larkin's life immediately becomes much easier. Which, in theory, means we score more goals and allow fewer goals. Send the Habs Fabbri + pick/prospect for Danault. Sign Craig Smith and maybe also take a flier on Alex Galchenyuk, who actually performed pretty well in his short stint with the Wild. Bertuzzi -- Larkin -- Mantha Zadina -- Danault -- Smith x -- (Galchenyuk?) -- x x -- x -- x That's a respectable top six/seven for a team that's trying to pick itself up off the floor and claw its way back to respectability. AND it means we don't necessarily have to hope and pray that Veleno or Rasmussen becomes a legit middle-six centerman before Larkin dies of exhaustion. AND, on top of all that, we're likely drafting a forward at 4th overall. On the back end...I'd like to add T.J. Brodie, but I doubt he'd sign with us unless it's a huge overpayment. So sign Brenden Dillon, assuming he'd be cheaper. Dillon -- Hronek DeKeyser -- Seider Nemeth -- Bowey In net...flip a pick/prospect for Igor Shesterkin and see what he can do. There. I just constructed a (theoretically) competitive 2020-21 Wings roster that doesn't feature a single blockbuster addition. For my next, less impressive trick, I will turn water into wine...

We should be kicking the tires on Phillip Danault.

DobberProspects Preliminary 2021 NHL Draft Rankings

Well, Bob McKenzie hasn't said it. It's more like whispers + some mock drafts going that way. https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-top-15-mock-draft-lafreniere-lands-new-york/ ^^^ Cam Robinson (mostly of Dobber Prospects, though I think he's trying to branch out) seems to be more dialed-in than most amateur scout blogger types, and while I suspect he's a dirty commie, I vaguely remember him being impressively ahead of the cuve about a few things re: the 2019 draft. If memory serves, he said Seider and Broberg would both go in the top ten and that the former would go before the latter. It's one of the reasons why I wasn't jaw-on-the-floor shocked when we took Seider at 6. So, I'd say there's probably something to the Perfetti-to-Detroit talk. But at the same time, I don't think him playing in Saginaw and the Wings liking him a lot necessarily means a whole lot. Quinn Hughes was at UMich in his draft season and we didn't take him. Maybe Yzerman likes Perfetti more than Holland liked Hughes, but you get my point. I guess I see Perfetti at 4 as a high-risk, high-reward proposition. The risk, I feel, is higher than I'd ideally like it to be, mostly because I don't like his straight-line skating and I don't like that he's a 5'10 guy whose straight-line skating I don't like. And I'm not confident he's an NHL centerman. But you'd be taking him for the potential payoff, and I do like the idea that he's a sleeper Datsyuk/Zetterberg/Pettersson. A player who's always the smartest guy on the ice, has an uncanny knack for slowing the game down, has great hands, is a great puck-protector, is lethal as a goal-scorer, is a lethal setup guy, always finds a way to manufacture offense, and is overall just a natural-born puck-possession beast. I've been saying Yzerman needs to find a way to cheat and beat the rebuild prison system and score some massive victories, like getting a Pettersson outside the top 3. I've also said I hope there's a non-top-3 player in this draft that Yzerman and his people are over-the-moon about in the same way that the Canucks were over-the-moon about Pettersson — and that, ideally, this player has x factor qualities which are (secretly) so off-the-charts good that even if several aspects of his game are always going to be somewhat deficient, he's so overpowered in other areas that he's able to become a hugely and uniquely effective gamebreaker. Like Pettersson.

I've been reading up on the 2021 class. Way too early for that, I guess. But not for Wings fans. I guess. Anyway, all this talk about x draft being super-deep and y draft being thin blah blah blah — I'm over it. 2017 was billed as a relatively weak draft. Was it? I dunno. Here's what I *do* know: Miro Heiskanen went 3rd overall. I wasn't all that interested in him. Even half a year after the draft, I wasn't all that interested in him. Fast forward to now and he's an absolute beast: https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/h/heiskmi01-advanced.html Cale Makar went 4th overall. Absolute beast (albeit with a nearly 2:1 zone starts split at even strength): https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/m/makarca01-advanced-ev.html Elias Pettersson went 5th overall. Absolute beast (albeit with a nearly 2:1 zone starts split at even strength): https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/p/petteel01-advanced-ev.html There's a bunch of other 1st-round selections who are looking like great picks. (Rasmussen is not one of them.) So, yeah, some people are saying 2021 isn't looking so hot. But some are saying it's better than the last couple. I don't really care either way. I just want the Wings to knock their first pick (and, ideally, their other picks, but let's be realistic) out of the park. On that note...there are some really good defensemen here. Brandt Clarke could be Erik Karlsson 2.0: https://www.rawcharge.com/2020/4/10/21208317/21-days-of-2021-nhl-draft-prospects-11-brandt-clarke He probably goes in the top three, which means we're probably not getting him. I like Carson Lambos as a hypothetical steal at, like, 5th or 6th overall: https://www.rawcharge.com/2020/4/2/21192672/21-days-of-2021-nhl-draft-prospects-17-carson-lambos https://smahtscouting.com/2020/05/25/scouting-report-carson-lambos/ Luke Hughes is another Hughes kid, so we know we're not getting him. He's bigger than Quinn and Jack but still skates like his brothers. https://www.rawcharge.com/2020/3/30/21191535/21-days-of-2021-nhl-draft-prospects-20-luke-hughes Owen Power seems like a bigger, left-shooting Moritz Seider. The kind of defenseman Yzerman seems to prefer. https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/504240/owen-power * * * So, the way I see it, this year's draft and next year's draft could, together, wrap up our building-through-the-draft efforts at two positions. This year: probably center/wing. Next year: probably defense.

Here's a very good in-depth look at Marco Rossi: I think he's our guy. Or, at least, I think he *should* be our guy. But there are whispers about Perfetti being the guy we're eyeing. Which...ugh. I mean, like I've said, I'll back Yzerman's pick. But I'm really not feeling like Perfetti is the guy we need to be pulling out of this important draft. ...Which probably means he's the next Datsyuk. *shrug* I like to think Rossi doesn't have any friends and he just hangs out with bears and stuff while training for the Cell Games.

What I'm saying is the gap between them is arguably smaller than people are making it out to be. I'm not saying Rossi should go 10th and Lundell should go 11th. I'm saying Rossi's worth a top 3 pick and maybe Lundell's worth taking earlier than people are thinking (especially if a team's really, really hurting for a centerman) and maybe they actually end up being similar players at the NHL level. Lundell has two Liiga seasons under his belt. That's a men's league, and a pretty good one at that. Last season (2018-19), he put up 9 goals and 19 points through 38 Liiga games. That's pretty impressive. This season, playing center as a teenager in a no-joke men's league, he put up 10 goals and 28 points through 44 Liiga games. That's pretty impressive. I think if Lundell and Rossi trade places at the start of this past season, Lundell probably torches the OHL and Rossi probably puts up pretty impressive numbers in the Liiga. I've seen Lundell play a couple times. Seen Rossi play a couple times as well. I'd rate Rossi as the more dynamic, high-end talent. I'm on record saying I would('ve) be(en) ok with Yzerman taking him as high as 2nd overall. All that being said, I wouldn't necessarily take Rossi's 120 points at total face value and I wouldn't necessarily sleep on Lundell's scoring upside. I feel basically the same way about Drysdale-versus-Sanderson. If you had to take one of the two, Drysdale would seem like the no-brainer pick. And yet...2 of Bob McKenzie's 10 scout consultants have Sanderson ranked at No. 3 on their lists, ahead of Drysdale. Would I take Sanderson over Drysdale? Probably not. Do I think there's a case to be made for taking Sanderson over Drysdale and that I could conceivably talk myself into pulling that trigger? Sure. Kirk Maltby scored 50 goals in junior. I'm on record saying one of my exceedingly few concerns about Lafreniere is his age advantage and that I really would've liked to have seen him playing in a men's league this season. I'm of the same mind re: Rossi. I'm also on record saying Byfield being so young is a big deal and that it arguably gives him the highest ceiling of any player in this draft class. Playing on a good team definitely padded Jack Hughes's stats. I'm pretty sure I said so at least once. If not, oh well. I guess I could've been harder on Hughes. In any case, I pretty much stopped caring about him when the lotto balls didn't go our way, just as I've pretty much stopped caring about Lafreniere. I *do* prefer the guy. I love Rossi. I'm just spelunking for Cheez-Its in the giant couch that is Red Wings Fans' Shared Ennui, searching for some -- any -- mildly interesting wrinkles that can get us talking about stuff.

...And then I wake up in the morning and say to myself, "Wait! How are we not leaning towards Drysdale?!"

Y'know, I'm talking about how much I like two-way prowess, but there's definitely a part of me that feels like taking anyone other than Holtz at 4 would be overthinking it. Like, Holtz will be taken 8th overall or some such s*** and he'll be scoring 40 goals by 2023 and everyone will say, "Wow, I can't believe the guy who was scoring goals in the SHL in his draft season is scoring goals in the NHL. Crazy!" I like Mantha and I like Zadina, but I'd like them even more if they were our second and third scoring wingers behind a legit monster goal-scoring winger.

I mean, if you really want to take the position that every NHL amateur scout and Credible Analyst™ believes Rossi is a centerman at the NHL level, more power to you. I'm guessing those people are not all on the same page on the matter. Honestly tho, it doesn't really matter to me. I think Rossi has the potential to be our top centerman if he's a centerman and our top winger if he's a winger. I'm not sure there's enough there in his game to allow him to be a powerhouse NHL producer (keep in mind: he's one of the elder statesemen of this draft class and he played for a very good CHL team this season), but what I like about him is how rounded and mature his game is and how many positive intangibles he seems to bring to the table. Basically, I see Rossi as closer to Ryan O'Reilly (or maybe Brayden Point?) than to Nathan MacKinnon, and I'm totally good with that, and I'd be totally good with having potentially three O'Reilly-esque two-way workhorses in Rossi, Larkin, Veleno. If that's our center group, I wouldn't be too concerned that our center group might not be able to generate offense in enough different ways, as I think there's actually a pretty good variety of strengths and styles there. When I talk about "loading up on Larkins," I'm mostly talking two-way ability. I don't mean I want three of the same player. I'm saying having three guys who can eat brutal minutes would be pretty great, in theory. From what I've seen of Lundell, he's plenty dynamic. I feel that he, like Byfield, hasn't yet realized how good he can be, and that he consciously tried to play conservatively this season because he was a teenaged centerman playing in the Liiga. I wouldn't take Lundell at 4th overall. But it's entirely possible he'd end up being a better NHLer than the guy I'd pick. I'm not convinced there's a whole lot of separation within this 3ish-10ish range.

https://dobberprospects.com/robinson-final-2020-nhl-draft-rankings-june-2020/ https://www.tsn.ca/anton-lundell-centre-1.1470956 If I'm taking Rossi in the top 5, it'd mostly be for his playmaking and two-way prowess. He could be a monster producer at the NHL level, but I'd be banking on him being more of a heavy-lifting two-way matchup guy who doesn't put up a ton of points but more than makes up for it in other ways. In that sense, I'm not sure there's as big a gap between Rossi and Lundell as people might think. That's not a knock on Rossi, mind you. I'm just saying we shouldn't discount what adding another Larkin/Veleno could do for our offense. I know we're kind of down on Larkin after the disappointing season he just had, but he was literally our only legitimate top-six centerman this season -- and every team knew it and gameplanned accordingly. Add another Larkin or two to the mix and I figure you'll see Larkin's production go up and stay up, as he wouldn't be facing the other team's top talent on every shift. Having three excellent two-way pivots would free Larkin up and it'd have the same effect for the other two, at least in theory. Basically: Larkin as we currently know him isn't necessarily even the real Larkin. A center group of Larkin, Rossi, Veleno and/or Rasmussen could be an unholy matchup nightmare for the opposition simply because any of those three or four guys could (theoretically) be counted on to shut down top talent. If we're going to get back to being a puck-possession powerhouse that's able to relentlessly ram the puck down teams' throats because we're just that good in the D-zone and in the neutral zone and in transition, loading up on Larkin types at center might be how we get there. And if Rossi isn't a full-time centerman? Well, I figure being hard-matched against a line of Rossi-Larkin-Mantha/Bertuzzi/Zadina/Rasmussen/[marquee UFA] would be a pretty miserable experience, especially if Seider's jumping up into the play like a fourth forward at every opportunity and throwing his weight around in all three zones.

I don't think that author's Cholowski + EDM's 2nd proposal gets us anywhere close, even if we agree to take on Eriksson. Maybe Fabbri + sweetener? I'd love to get Boeser, and I'd be willing to pay a pretty steep price, but I'm guessing the Devils or Sens use a 1st to land him (if he does indeed get moved).

How confident are we that Rossi or Stutzle will be a full-time centerman tho? I love Rossi as a two-way playmaking centerman at the CHL level, but it's certainly possible he settles in as a winger at the pro level. I mean, I'm down with Rossi or Stutzle at 4 even if we fully believe they're full-time wingers. But if we want a guy who's guaranteed to be a solid top-six centerman, Anton Lundell might be our best bet. There are questions about his scoring upside, but people seem to agree that you'd be getting at least a 2C with legit Selke potential.

You'd have to be a fool to believe that Askarov is a guaranteed stud NHLer. But here's the thing: You'd have to be a fool to believe that *any* of our options at 4th overall is a guaranteed stud NHLer. Maybe an elite goalie prospect is more of a boom/bust proposition than an elite skater prospect. But I guess my thinking is that if Yzerman does take Askarov at 4th overall (or trades back a bit and takes him at around 10th overall), that means Yzerman is crazy about him, and I'd have to respect that and give Yzerman the benefit of the doubt for the time being. I highly doubt we're taking Askarov with our first pick, so this is all probably moot anyway. Fair. What I mean is that we're probably not going to emerge from this rebuild with a mouthwatering core of former top-three draft picks. The way this rebuild is trending, we're probably going to be more blue-collar than white-collar, more 2019 Blues than 2019 Lightning.

I absolutely did skip entire posts and very quickly skim some others. I'll take your word for it that I did you kind of dirty by quoting only that one part. Wasn't trying to beef with you or be disingenuous. I saw you said you don't get why anyone would have any interest in taking Askarov at 4 or even trading back a bit for him, and I offered an answer. I feel I hit on the relevant points. I didn't knock them out of the park, but that wasn't really my intention. I'm just playing devil's advocate. Askarov probably wouldn't be my pick at 4, if I'm Yzerman. I'm generally of the same mind. But what I think is worth considering here is the fact that Askarov is so much better than the typical top first-year draft-eligible goalie. He appears to be a special case. I think I'd probably take the top goalie in the league over the 10th best winger. A team is made up of lots of skaters and only two goalies; those goalies will have an enormous impact on your team's fortunes. Your goaltending can very easily make you and very easily break you. I'd say that's especially true for teams that aren't loaded with top-end talent. Realistically, that's the kind of team we're building. One that's going to need A LOT from its goaltender(s). I get where you're coming from and I don't strongly disagree with your logic...but, at the same time, I think you're slightly overselling the caliber of candidates available at 4th overall. And I say that as someone who feels this is an unusually deep draft class. Again tho, I'm playing devil's advocate. At most, I'm Askarov-curious.

If we're going to call all the skater options elite, why not also call the goaltender option elite? https://www.tsn.ca/yaroslav-askarov-goaltender-1.1470370 Admittedly, I'm not a goalie person; I don't know goalies, it's all Greek to me. (@chaps80 is probably the resident authority at the moment.) However, virtually everyone seems to agree that Askarov is arguably the best first-year draft-eligible goalie we've seen in a number of years. To me, that puts Askarov in the conversation re: who we ought to take with our first pick. I don't think it's unreasonable to say Askarov is as good a goalie prospect as each of the realistic skater options is a defenseman/centerman/winger prospect. Goalies are voodoo, so, yeah, choosing one of the skaters would be safer. But a wise man once said safe is death.

Don't be sorry about complaining about this. It's straight-up bulls*** and we should all be pissed off about it and we should never let the league forget what they did. That's fair. If Yzerman does want Askarov, I think the Rangers might be a good partner for a trade-down. As things stand right now, they own, what, 13OA and 23OA? I think? And they have a couple good goalie prospects too, right? Hmmm... Anything's possible. Personally, I'll be shocked if Byfield falls out of the top three. I don't think we can use Zadina as a precedent for him re: a possible slide. Byfield is a 6'4 playmaking goal-scoring two-way power-center with outstanding hands who skates like the wind and is very young for his draft class. He's also got two dominant CHL seasons under his belt, whereas 2018 Zadina's CHL sample size was only the one season. tl;dr Byfield is a ludicrously tantalizing package. Floor is a solid 1C. Ceiling is Fedorov. I think it's going to be Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle. I'm sticking with what I said in the lead-up to the lotto: I think our guy is going to be one of Byfield, Stutzle, Rossi, Drysdale, Raymond.

Agreed on all counts. I think I'd be ok with Askarov at 4. BPA-wise, you can make a case for him being the BPA at 4. Need-wise, well, we all know how badly we need a goalie. I doubt it happens, but who knows. Ultimately, it's all going to come down to what Yzerman thinks. He was all-in on Seider and we didn't learn that until after he'd made the pick. Could be that he's all-in on Askarov and we won't hear a thing about it until after the pick is made and Yzerman says, "He was always our guy. I can't believe you people thought we were going to take Raymond. lmao! Have you seen our goalie depth chart?!" I do hope we land a good UFA goalie at a good price. Lehner or Markstrom would be nice. But I don't know why any self-respecting goalie would want to play for this team. It'd probably have to be a massive overpay. Worth it? Maybe, maybe not.

I can't see LA taking Drysdale. Doughty's only 30. Byram is a stud. Bjornfot is a stud. I know their center prospect pool is insanely deep ("Meanwhile, in Detroit..."), but I don't think any of those prospects has legit Kopitar potential. Byfield is the exceedingly rare prospect who absolutely does have legit Kopitar potential. What's the ideal place for a prospect with legit Kopitar potential? Kopitar's team. Ah, but what are the odds that Byfield would end up on...oh, right. tl;dr Byfield to LA is just too Hollywood-perfect to not happen. It's almost like the lotto was rigged or something. Weird! I think Ottawa takes Stutzle. They desperately need an exciting straw-that-stirs-the-drink playmaking forward. Tkachuk + Stutzle = 2/3rds of a terror line. I don't know who we're going to pick. I'm trying to keep an open mind and not set any expectations. I could talk all day long about how, say, Raymond makes all the sense in the world and then Yzerman could take Holtz and I'd say, "Actually, yeah, I guess I should've seen that coming." And y'know what? I'd be more than ok with Holtz. Getting Stutzle would be great. But if a lot of people are thinking he's a winger...and if there are some questions about how much raw goal-scoring ability is there...and if we're all on the same page about the SHL being a significantly tougher league than the DEL...then I think it's worth questioning how wide the gap between Stutzle and SHLers Holtz & Raymond really is, or if it even exists. Holtz put up 9 goals and 16 points in 35 SHL games this season. He has a long, well-documented history of being a monster goal-scorer. He's a better prospect than 2018 Zadina. Gimme dat Pastrnak 2.0. No, you're correct. And that's my point. Getting knocked out of the top three sucks hardcore, but we're kidding ourselves if we think the first three guys off the board are definitely going to be the best NHLers this draft produces.

I would say the difference between Price and Fleury is that Fleury was fortunate enough to play behind Cup-worthy teams (led by Sidney Crosby). The Habs have lacked elite talent for pretty much all of Price's NHL career thus far. It's mind-boggling. I'm pretty sure they tried my grandmother as their 1C at one point.

Just sayin'. Somehow Makar slipped to 4th, Pettersson slipped to 5th, Quinn Hughes slipped to 7th, etc. I've seen prominent internet armchair analyst types who don't even have Stutzle in their top fives. Everyone is dumb, no one knows anything. We just have to hope our scouts are less dumb than other teams' scouts.

It's all a crapshoot. It really is.

For what it's worth, 2021 is being billed as a relatively weak draft class. While that doesn't exactly boost my HYPE! levels, I think back to the last "relatively weak" draft class... https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2017e.html