Dabura

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Dabura last won the day on September 7

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  1. Dabura

    2020 Offseason

    This is basically where I'm at. I don't have a strong opinion about what to do with Mantha; I'm not necessarily against keeping him and I'm not necessarily against moving him. Whatever we do, I want it to fit with whatever The Plan is. If Yzerman is thinking we're heading into year two of a five-year rebuild (having reset the clock when Holland left), trade Mantha. If Yzerman wants us back in the playoffs within the next two or three years, keep Mantha and do what you can to make sure we don't waste the back half of his 20s.
  2. Dabura

    2020 Offseason

    That's fair.
  3. Dabura

    2020 Offseason

    If it's a "We're getting Danault and he's not particularly happy about it and he's probably going to test the UFA waters next summer" situation, I'm not giving up much. I think a 2nd would be reasonable, yeah. If, on the other hand, it's a "We're getting Danault and we firmly believe he's open to doing an extension right away, because we feel we need a Danault for a few years and we believe he knows we feel that way" situation, I might go as high as Fabbri + Rasmussen.
  4. Dabura

    2020 Offseason

    I get it. I really do. Admittedly, I'm leaning into this a little harder than I normally would, because I'm just that bored with the rebuild. But I do firmly believe this rebuild effort would greatly benefit from the addition of at least one older player who can make life much easier for the younger talent. The focus should of course be sowing the seeds of future success. But a big part of that is making sure the soil is suitable and can allow those seeds to sprout and grow and become what we need them to become. I worry that if we continue to dick around with this 2C hole, we're only hurting the rebuild. So I'd really like to see us add a guy who can absord a big chunk of Larkin's workload and give us so depth and insulation and veteran leadership and all that good stuff. If Danault can be had and extended for a reasonable asking price and on a reasonable contract, I feel Yzerman should pull the trigger. A team that's as thin and beaten-down as ours needs some fixed-point rocks that can always be counted on to do some very heavy-lifting and give us some very good hockey and put up more points than Glendening. We're really missing Zetterberg and Kronwall.
  5. Dabura

    2020 Offseason

    I just feel like this is an overly passive way to approach things, given the season this team just had. I feel like it's setting up a self-fulfilling prophecy. "We're supposed to suck, so let's suck. If we don't want to hardcore suck, maybe Yzerman can sign some UFA 3C who sucks and we can tell ourselves Yzerman tried, c'est la vie. Gotta wait for Veleno. Can't get older. Can only get younger. Can't worry about the here and now. Eyes on the horizon." Like, I get it. But I also don't. Why not ice a really good top-six forward group right now? Why not see what this team can do with a borderline-Selke-caliber centerman slotted behind Larkin on the depth chart? Let's score some goals. Let's allow fewer goals against. Let's learn good habits. Let's get these players and the fans feeling better about themselves and the direction of the team. Let's get that dopamine and those endorphins going. Let's get some veteran leaders who don't suck and don't see this gig as a comfy retirement plan. Let's take some of that crushing weight off of our (unofficial) captain's shoulders so he can perform better and feel better about himself and not be breaking sticks behind the bench out of overwhelming frustration. Let's figure out what we really have in our winger group. (Possibly a little late for that now with Mantha and Bertuzzi set to get paid, but still). Let's get back to that whole winning culture thing. Let's get people buying in again. Let's get people believing again. I disagree! (Sort of!) (Meh!) 2019-20 Filppula CF% (EV) = 44.3 CF% Rel (EV) = -2.6 Zone Starts (EV) = O 49.3 / D 50.7 2019-20 Nielsen CF% (EV) = 45.1 CF% Rel (EV) = -1.7 Zone Starts (EV) = O 39.3 / D 60.7 (!!!) Nielsen was basically deployed like Glendening. Nielsen's clearly still a nice defensive player -- but, physically, his body isn't at all suited for a hardcore checking role. That's why he gets ragdolled every night. That's why he's been dealing with injury problems. I can't really fault Blashill for deploying Nielsen the way he did this season. Blashill was given a roster with one legitimate top-six centerman. Only one. Exactly one. One more than zero. One less than two. One. Only one. And that's the problem. With the luxury of hindsight, I can tell you that that's no way to construct a team, even one that's built to finish in last place. You've gotta give your troops a chance to win every night. You can't just hang them out to dry. You've gotta provide them with some genuine help, players who can lift them up and not just take up space. Lesson learned (I would hope). Get these players some real, genuine, bona fide help. I would say the dropoff is pretty drastic. Granlund's basically a winger. Haula's not necessarily a full-time centerman, and he's dealt with some serious injury problems. He was not good in his stint with the Panthers. There's a whole lot of meh on that UFA list. Danault is, functionally, pretty much Larkin; he can eat really tough matchups and keep his head above water. Tatar--Danault--Gallagher was an outstanding line for the Habs. If we put Danault between, say, Zadina and Craig Smith (we need some good veterans and we need some right-handed shots), we potentially have two monster lines, largely because each one would be centered by a two-way workhorse, which means the lines could trade tough matchup responsibilities as Blashill sees fit, which in turn means either line potentially could victimize other teams' lesser talent on a near-nightly basis. As Danault gets closer to 30, Veleno, Rasmussen, Rossi/Perfetti close in on becoming legit NHL centermen. I don't see the problem. If anything, it's problematic to expect Veleno to become a borderline-Selke-caliber centerman. It's a possibility, but I wouldn't count on it. And if we're adding, say, Rossi, we're adding someone who projects out as a better NHLer than Veleno anyway. Fabbri + Rasmussen.
  6. Dabura

    2020 Offseason

    Good call on Nugent-Hopkins. Shame on me for not catching it. But, yeah, point still stands: He's not a realistic option. I'm not prepared to die on this Danault hill. Or maybe I am. I don't know. I may be overselling Danault a bit, but I think you and @nyqvististhefuture are undervaluing him a bit. Dude's done yeoman's work as a 1C on some offense-starved Habs teams. He's a centerman's centerman. A possession beast. A playmaker who makes his linemates better. A guy who can handle tough matchups. It May Be Time for the Montreal Canadiens to Move Phillip Danault [Last Word On Hockey] Check out the CF% and the corresponding Zone Starts splits: That's beautiful. That's crack cocaine. I want that centering our second line. Imagine if Bertuzzi-Larkin-Mantha could be freed up *even just a little bit* more to spend *even just a little bit* more time beating up on other teams' secondary and tertiary players. Filppula sucks. He's a 4C, if that. Nielsen didn't score this season, but his usage was absolutely brutal, so he gets a bit of a pass from me -- but, even so, he's absolutely not a 2C. Glendening is not a 2C. I'm not expecting Veleno to become a really solid 2C within the next couple of years. Danault makes us better now, gives us a 1-2 punch at center for two or three years (if we can extend him), takes some of the pressure off of our prospect centermen (if we extend him). Maybe the ask for Danault is way too high. In which case, forget it. Maybe the ask is reasonable but he doesn't want to agree to an immediate extension, in which case he's possibly just a rental. In which case, forget it. All I'm really saying is that Yzerman should be kicking these tires.
  7. Dabura

    2020 Offseason

    Some people in Habs Land are seizing on things Danault said after the Habs were eliminated. They were basically nothing comments, but it's Montreal, so people are talking about Danault now. https://www.spectorshockey.net/2020/08/nhl-rumor-mill-august-31-2020/ I don't think he's unhappy in Montreal and I doubt Bergevin considers him expendable. But, like I said, their center depth chart is looking a little crowded. That could be a problem for Bergevin if Danault wants to be guaranteed top-six minutes and get paid like a Selke-caliber 2C instead of a Selke-caliber 3C. So, Danault is more expendable now than he was at the start of this season. Right, but we can't wait. I'm saying we need that player *now*. Count the number of 27-year-old borderline-Selke-caliber guys on this list: Nugent-Hopkins fits that profile. But 1) I doubt Holland lets him go, and 2) we'd probably have to pay out the ass to lure him to Detroit. Granlund is a good player, but not a centerman's centerman. The Preds have to part with either him or Craig Smith (who's a full-time winger, not a centerman) and it's probably going to be Smith. I think we should sign Smith, but with the understanding that he's a winger. Soderberg and Namestnikov are not guys I'd feel comfortable hard-matching against top talent. Haula's a big question mark; I don't know what he is at this point in his career. Not even sure he's a true centerman. Mmmmmmaybe Janmark?
  8. Dabura

    2020 Offseason

    True, I don't know that Bergevin has or will have any appetite for moving Danault. But the argument could be made that it's starting to get a little crowded at center on that team (Danault, Suzuki, Domi, Kotkaniemi). If Danault's being a bit of a malcontent, maybe Bergevin decides to trade him and sign a UFA replacement. For us, it'd make sense to look for a Danault type in UFAgency. I agree with that. ...Sort of. My hangup is that I really like Danault. I don't think of him as a bottom-sixer, I think of him as a borderline-Selke-caliber rock who can be hard-matched against top talent every night and still put up 45+ points. *shrug*
  9. Dabura

    2020 Offseason

    We need legit center help and we need it yesterday, even if the plan is to suck. Veleno's coming off a could've-been-better AHL rookie season. I don't know when he's going to be ready. I certainly don't know when or if he's going to be as good an NHL centerman as Danault. Danault's a low-key outstanding veteran shutdown centerman: https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/d/danauph01-advanced-ev.html Add Danault and Larkin's life immediately becomes much easier. Which, in theory, means we score more goals and allow fewer goals. Send the Habs Fabbri + pick/prospect for Danault. Sign Craig Smith and maybe also take a flier on Alex Galchenyuk, who actually performed pretty well in his short stint with the Wild. Bertuzzi -- Larkin -- Mantha Zadina -- Danault -- Smith x -- (Galchenyuk?) -- x x -- x -- x That's a respectable top six/seven for a team that's trying to pick itself up off the floor and claw its way back to respectability. AND it means we don't necessarily have to hope and pray that Veleno or Rasmussen becomes a legit middle-six centerman before Larkin dies of exhaustion. AND, on top of all that, we're likely drafting a forward at 4th overall. On the back end...I'd like to add T.J. Brodie, but I doubt he'd sign with us unless it's a huge overpayment. So sign Brenden Dillon, assuming he'd be cheaper. Dillon -- Hronek DeKeyser -- Seider Nemeth -- Bowey In net...flip a pick/prospect for Igor Shesterkin and see what he can do. There. I just constructed a (theoretically) competitive 2020-21 Wings roster that doesn't feature a single blockbuster addition. For my next, less impressive trick, I will turn water into wine...
  10. Dabura

    2020 Offseason

    We should be kicking the tires on Phillip Danault.
  11. Dabura

    2020 Draft Thread

    DobberProspects Preliminary 2021 NHL Draft Rankings
  12. Dabura

    2020 Draft Thread

    Well, Bob McKenzie hasn't said it. It's more like whispers + some mock drafts going that way. https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-top-15-mock-draft-lafreniere-lands-new-york/ ^^^ Cam Robinson (mostly of Dobber Prospects, though I think he's trying to branch out) seems to be more dialed-in than most amateur scout blogger types, and while I suspect he's a dirty commie, I vaguely remember him being impressively ahead of the cuve about a few things re: the 2019 draft. If memory serves, he said Seider and Broberg would both go in the top ten and that the former would go before the latter. It's one of the reasons why I wasn't jaw-on-the-floor shocked when we took Seider at 6. So, I'd say there's probably something to the Perfetti-to-Detroit talk. But at the same time, I don't think him playing in Saginaw and the Wings liking him a lot necessarily means a whole lot. Quinn Hughes was at UMich in his draft season and we didn't take him. Maybe Yzerman likes Perfetti more than Holland liked Hughes, but you get my point. I guess I see Perfetti at 4 as a high-risk, high-reward proposition. The risk, I feel, is higher than I'd ideally like it to be, mostly because I don't like his straight-line skating and I don't like that he's a 5'10 guy whose straight-line skating I don't like. And I'm not confident he's an NHL centerman. But you'd be taking him for the potential payoff, and I do like the idea that he's a sleeper Datsyuk/Zetterberg/Pettersson. A player who's always the smartest guy on the ice, has an uncanny knack for slowing the game down, has great hands, is a great puck-protector, is lethal as a goal-scorer, is a lethal setup guy, always finds a way to manufacture offense, and is overall just a natural-born puck-possession beast. I've been saying Yzerman needs to find a way to cheat and beat the rebuild prison system and score some massive victories, like getting a Pettersson outside the top 3. I've also said I hope there's a non-top-3 player in this draft that Yzerman and his people are over-the-moon about in the same way that the Canucks were over-the-moon about Pettersson — and that, ideally, this player has x factor qualities which are (secretly) so off-the-charts good that even if several aspects of his game are always going to be somewhat deficient, he's so overpowered in other areas that he's able to become a hugely and uniquely effective gamebreaker. Like Pettersson.
  13. Dabura

    2020 Draft Thread

    I've been reading up on the 2021 class. Way too early for that, I guess. But not for Wings fans. I guess. Anyway, all this talk about x draft being super-deep and y draft being thin blah blah blah — I'm over it. 2017 was billed as a relatively weak draft. Was it? I dunno. Here's what I *do* know: Miro Heiskanen went 3rd overall. I wasn't all that interested in him. Even half a year after the draft, I wasn't all that interested in him. Fast forward to now and he's an absolute beast: https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/h/heiskmi01-advanced.html Cale Makar went 4th overall. Absolute beast (albeit with a nearly 2:1 zone starts split at even strength): https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/m/makarca01-advanced-ev.html Elias Pettersson went 5th overall. Absolute beast (albeit with a nearly 2:1 zone starts split at even strength): https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/p/petteel01-advanced-ev.html There's a bunch of other 1st-round selections who are looking like great picks. (Rasmussen is not one of them.) So, yeah, some people are saying 2021 isn't looking so hot. But some are saying it's better than the last couple. I don't really care either way. I just want the Wings to knock their first pick (and, ideally, their other picks, but let's be realistic) out of the park. On that note...there are some really good defensemen here. Brandt Clarke could be Erik Karlsson 2.0: https://www.rawcharge.com/2020/4/10/21208317/21-days-of-2021-nhl-draft-prospects-11-brandt-clarke He probably goes in the top three, which means we're probably not getting him. I like Carson Lambos as a hypothetical steal at, like, 5th or 6th overall: https://www.rawcharge.com/2020/4/2/21192672/21-days-of-2021-nhl-draft-prospects-17-carson-lambos https://smahtscouting.com/2020/05/25/scouting-report-carson-lambos/ Luke Hughes is another Hughes kid, so we know we're not getting him. He's bigger than Quinn and Jack but still skates like his brothers. https://www.rawcharge.com/2020/3/30/21191535/21-days-of-2021-nhl-draft-prospects-20-luke-hughes Owen Power seems like a bigger, left-shooting Moritz Seider. The kind of defenseman Yzerman seems to prefer. https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/504240/owen-power * * * So, the way I see it, this year's draft and next year's draft could, together, wrap up our building-through-the-draft efforts at two positions. This year: probably center/wing. Next year: probably defense.
  14. Dabura

    2020 Draft Thread

    Here's a very good in-depth look at Marco Rossi: I think he's our guy. Or, at least, I think he *should* be our guy. But there are whispers about Perfetti being the guy we're eyeing. Which...ugh. I mean, like I've said, I'll back Yzerman's pick. But I'm really not feeling like Perfetti is the guy we need to be pulling out of this important draft. ...Which probably means he's the next Datsyuk. *shrug* I like to think Rossi doesn't have any friends and he just hangs out with bears and stuff while training for the Cell Games.
  15. Dabura

    2020 Draft Thread

    What I'm saying is the gap between them is arguably smaller than people are making it out to be. I'm not saying Rossi should go 10th and Lundell should go 11th. I'm saying Rossi's worth a top 3 pick and maybe Lundell's worth taking earlier than people are thinking (especially if a team's really, really hurting for a centerman) and maybe they actually end up being similar players at the NHL level. Lundell has two Liiga seasons under his belt. That's a men's league, and a pretty good one at that. Last season (2018-19), he put up 9 goals and 19 points through 38 Liiga games. That's pretty impressive. This season, playing center as a teenager in a no-joke men's league, he put up 10 goals and 28 points through 44 Liiga games. That's pretty impressive. I think if Lundell and Rossi trade places at the start of this past season, Lundell probably torches the OHL and Rossi probably puts up pretty impressive numbers in the Liiga. I've seen Lundell play a couple times. Seen Rossi play a couple times as well. I'd rate Rossi as the more dynamic, high-end talent. I'm on record saying I would('ve) be(en) ok with Yzerman taking him as high as 2nd overall. All that being said, I wouldn't necessarily take Rossi's 120 points at total face value and I wouldn't necessarily sleep on Lundell's scoring upside. I feel basically the same way about Drysdale-versus-Sanderson. If you had to take one of the two, Drysdale would seem like the no-brainer pick. And yet...2 of Bob McKenzie's 10 scout consultants have Sanderson ranked at No. 3 on their lists, ahead of Drysdale. Would I take Sanderson over Drysdale? Probably not. Do I think there's a case to be made for taking Sanderson over Drysdale and that I could conceivably talk myself into pulling that trigger? Sure. Kirk Maltby scored 50 goals in junior. I'm on record saying one of my exceedingly few concerns about Lafreniere is his age advantage and that I really would've liked to have seen him playing in a men's league this season. I'm of the same mind re: Rossi. I'm also on record saying Byfield being so young is a big deal and that it arguably gives him the highest ceiling of any player in this draft class. Playing on a good team definitely padded Jack Hughes's stats. I'm pretty sure I said so at least once. If not, oh well. I guess I could've been harder on Hughes. In any case, I pretty much stopped caring about him when the lotto balls didn't go our way, just as I've pretty much stopped caring about Lafreniere. I *do* prefer the guy. I love Rossi. I'm just spelunking for Cheez-Its in the giant couch that is Red Wings Fans' Shared Ennui, searching for some -- any -- mildly interesting wrinkles that can get us talking about stuff.