Dabura

I just hope Yzerman and his crew have done their homework. Gotta knock this pick out of the park.

Thanks, @Jedi!

Honestly, it wouldn't be a *huge* surprise to me. Getting Lafreniere would be a gamechanger for our rebuild. Assuming Green is gone, we need to add a veteran top-four puck-moving defenseman, preferably one who's a power play monster. That's with or without Lafreniere. In this regard, Krug is a fit. (In certain other regards...maybe not so much.) And there's also the Michigan connection, though I doubt that means much. If we add Hall on top of Lafreniere, we have a Cup-caliber top-nine winger group of Hall, Mantha, Bertuzzi, Lafreniere, Fabbri, Zadina. In theory, that would compensate for a lack of gamebreaking talent at center and a thin blue line. Also, we'd finally have a legit position of strength (in theory), so maybe we trade a winger for a defenseman. Am I expecting us to get Lafreniere? No. Even if we get Lafreniere, would I expect Yzerman to make some huge moves? No. But...at the same time..."31st overall team picks 1st and signs a couple of big UFAs" is maybe not as unrealistic as our pessimistic brains would have us believe.

TBH, I'm not 100% versed in exactly how this lotto is gonna work. All I really know is 1) the farthest we can slide is 4th and 2) some teams are going to get to participate in the playoffs (even if we're not calling the play-in round part of the playoffs, it basically is) while also being eligible for the draft lotto if they get knocked out in the play-in round. That second part is what pisses me and a lot of Wings fans off. The Wings are coming off a horrific season and the NHL's contorting itself to help bubble teams.

Pietrangelo ain't happening; I'm sure there are about 25 teams he'd rather play for, and at 30 years old (31 in January), he's probably not worth the kind of contract we'd have to give him to convince him to join our s***show. And Yzerman would probably have to sell him on a quick turnaround, which would mean making other big moves, which would mean replacing Holland with Yzerman was kind of pointless. In theory, though, I would overpay for a (slightly younger) Pietrangelo type. But when I talk about the possibility of Yzerman being aggressive this offseason, I'm not really thinking of the cream-of-the-crop UFAs. I'm thinking more along the lines of Robin Lehner, T. J. Brodie, Erik Haula, Craig Smith. These aren't gamechanging players, but, point is, they're better than the players that most people are expecting Yzerman to acquire this offseason (Filppula 2.0, Nemeth 2.0, AHL goalie 2.0). To be clear: This hypothetical aggressive offseason is predicated on us getting Lafreniere and next season being truncated. Mostly Lafreniere. No Lafreniere means we stick to The Plan 100%. Lafreniere means maybe we treat ourselves a little this offseason, within reason. Lafreniere + shortened 2020-21 season means maybe we shoot for the playoffs, within reason. So, like, I don't think we kick the Taylor Hall tires if we don't get Lafreniere. And I'm not sure we kick the Taylor Hall tires even if we do get Lafreniere. But I think getting Lafreniere makes Hall a more plausible target, because getting Lafreniere would immediately change the conversation from "We're a one-line team and there really isn't much we can do about that right now" to "We're now one stud winger away from having one of the deepest winger groups in the league." If you add a truncated 2020-21 season on top of Lafreniere, I think Yzerman would be tempted to ice a team that's genuinely capable of winning more games than it loses.

thanks i hate it

Oh, don't get me wrong -- I wouldn't want an all-in, playoffs-or-bust approach to this offseason. And I don't think there's any chance Yzerman will be swayed to think that way at this point in the rebuild, even if we get Lafreniere. Suter-Parise 2.0 is not in the cards for us this offseason; Yzerman won't be signing Hall and Pietrangelo. lol! But if we get Lafreniere and if it's looking like next season will be truncated, I think we might see Yzerman take a slightly more ambitious, aggressive approach to this offseason than he otherwise would. Maybe we do need to be solidly in the mix for the 1st overall pick next season, even if we get Lafreniere. I'm willing to accept that a bad 2020-21 season is what's best for this franchise's long-term health. At the same time, I do think meaningful regular season hockey and a surprise playoff berth would be a good thing. This season was rough for everyone in Red Wings world. It was rough for the franchise. It was rough for the brand. It was rough for the players. It was rough for the fans. Just look at the state of this forum. So true, man. So true.

BUMP SAT ALONE IN A BOGGY MARSH So I was talking hockey with an old friend. He brought up an interesting angle that I somehow hadn't even considered: If 2020-21 is a significantly shortened season, a la 2012-13, then maybe Yzerman actually does make an honest push for the playoffs next season. Because why not. We probably don't make the 2013 playoffs if 2012-13 is a full season. Instead of burning out over a full 82-game schedule and missing the playoffs, we made the playoffs and very nearly made it to the conference finals. All of this largely because Howard didn't have to deal with the workload of a full season and, consequently, was able to get into a groove and play arguably the best hockey of his career. Granted, that 2013 team still had Datsyuk and Zetterberg and Kronwall, and Howard was in his prime, and Babcock had a rare talent for getting thoroughly mediocre teams to overachieve. And, granted, I don't know whether a January start to next season (a la 2013) is realistic or unrealistic, as I honestly haven't been paying much attention to NHL rumors and news outside of draft lotto stuff. But it's something to think about. We know Yzerman is going to have cap space to work with. We know that, at the very least, he's going to be looking for an upgrade in net, e.g. Lehner. We know what hot goaltending can do for a team. We know we could be walking away from the draft with Lafreniere. ... If the season is set to start in the fall, none of this makes me think playoffs. If, on the other hand, the season is set to start in the winter...then maybe the stars are aligning for the Wings. We're all concerned that two or three more years of futility would wreck our young players and establish a losing culture. Wouldn't it be nice to break up the hopelessness with a surprise playoff appearance? "No. We need to suck next season. We need another top-four pick." I mean, sure. But I'd say we also need some meaningful hockey games.

Fans of every team complain about their coaches changing up the lines too often. They also complain about their coaches ruining their young talent. Granted, at this point in time, Blashill's body of work is practically begging for a thrashing. I'm just saying that these things that a lot of people seem to think are unique to the Wings are not at all unique to the Wings. If we replace Blashill right now, the new coach likely changes up the lines too often for our liking and doesn't get much more out of our players than Blashill did. I've said it before and I'll say it again: One day we're going to learn that there were a lot of problems in the 2019-20 Wings' locker room. Remember when AA was traded and some reporter quoted an unnamed veteran Wing who said something to the effect of "The kid just doesn't get it. We all tried to help him. He wouldn't listen"? That was a glimpse behind the curtain. I'm guessing it was just the tip of the iceberg. Not about AA specifically. Just general behind-the-scenes drama. Fair point. But I agree with those who are saying the real problem is likely a lack of interest from potential Blashill replacements/upgrades.

Yep, sounds about right. Lafreniere and Byfield are the consensus 1 and 2, respectively. No clear consensus beyond that. Like I said, I'm not interested in Perfetti. My reasoning is lazy: He's a smallish guy and I've heard his skating isn't great and I don't want a smallish guy whose skating isn't great. So he's pretty much guaranteed to become the best NHLer this draft produces, because f*** my life. I'm torn on Holtz. On the one hand, he's a natural born goal-scorer and I can easily imagine him becoming the next Kucherov. On the other hand, I think his overall game is lacking. Maybe Raymond isn't quite the goal-scorer Holtz is, but Raymond's all-around game is way more dynamic, way more robust. Stutzle at 7 on Wheeler's list is surprising to me...but I guess it also kind of isn't, as there are some things Stutzle needs to work on and/or may never be able to claim as strengths. Matt Larkin: [shrug]

I suppose it's worth keeping in mind, like Wcs said. But I think what it comes down to -- and this is always a thing with any amateur or pro league -- is what kind of numbers the league's top scorers put up. So, like, Rossi's 120 points is probably inflated; he's got a clear age advantage (late September birthday) and that's going to help him even if poor OHL goaltending isn't a thing. So let's subtract, say, 30 points. Even with 90 points, he'd still be in pretty good company: https://www.quanthockey.com/ohl/en/seasons/2019-20-ohl-players-stats.html TBH, I'm not interested in Perfetti. I'm very high on Rossi tho. He's an Yzerman type, i.e. a smallish, high-skill, high-IQ, hard-working, well-rounded playmaking centerman who plays in the guts of the game across all three zones. He's always impacting the game, making things happen. This is a good profile that goes over Rossi's numbers (and more) in detail: https://www.silversevensens.com/2020/6/1/21276461/2020-nhl-draft-profile-marco-rossi-ottawa-senators-nhl-ohl

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/89968/mathias-brome Nice add. I'd figured he'd pick Vancouver.

Honestly, I feel kinda dirty bringing up Hughes and Makar. Those two were phenomenal this season, so of course everyone's gonna be looking for "the next one"...and so of course when you look at Drysdale -- a smallish offense-driver who can skate you into the ground -- there's a temptation to say, "Wow! It's Hughes/Makar 2.0! Imagine our luck!" And I think there's also a temptation to overcorrect in the opposite direction and scream, "HE'S NOT HUGHES/MAKAR 2.0! STOP BEING A POO BRAIN!" Because, I mean, it's not like we should now expect every draft to produce a Hughes/Makar-caliber defenseman. Realistically, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle; I don't expect Drysdale to be quite as lethal and electrifying as Hughes and Makar, but I think his all-around game is better than Hughes' and Makar's, which arguably makes his ceiling a higher than theirs. He's an all-situations guy. My biggest source of HYPE! regarding this draft is the fact that we're likely going to be able to say, "OK, we've taken care of [insert position]. One down, three to go." I'm a sucker for center depth, so I do kinda hope it's a centerman (assuming we're not picking 1st). I'd hope the centerman ends up being a full-time centerman, but the thought of Byfield/Stutzle/Rossi splitting time between center and (Larkin's) wing gives me a boner, so it's all good. I do think they all look like full-time centermen tho. Even Rossi. Some people say Rossi's skating is questionable, but I don't really see it. A lot of people are on record saying his skating is a strength. I agree with these people. Overall, Rossi's a remarkably well-rounded player. The Brayden Point comparisons are very appropriate. Because he's relatively old and plays a mature two-way game, I think he's arguably the most NHL-ready guy in this draft class not named Lafreniere.

COWARD!

I'd been thinking all season long that Minny's gonna get one of the first three picks. Still think that. Just a gut feeling. Fair enough. Personally, I dunno what's not to like about him. He filled in for Byram at the WJC and performed admirably, becoming the youngest defenseman to represent Canada since Jay Bouwmeester. He has the elite skating and elite offensive instincts of guys like Hughes and Makar but he's also surprisingly good on the defensive side of the puck. Like Seider, he projects as a guy who eats minutes across all situations, a guy you can hard match against top talent. A guy you can really lean on. His bread and butter will likely be the power play, but I definitely don't see him as a one-dimensional power play specialist, if that's the concern. A top three of Drysdale, Seider, Hronek could be delicious. On the other hand, if we take Byfield/Stutzle/Rossi then we likely will have addressed our center depth problem, possibly for the next ten years.

I'll be pretty surprised if Askarov goes in the top three. Less surprised if Drysdale does, as I think he looks like a future 1D. I'd be ok with Yzerman taking Drysdale or Rossi as high as 2nd overall, so I really mean it when I say we'd be getting a stud with all the makings of a cornerstone player at 4th overall.

Gotta love that Parity™. Whatever. F*** tha police. I'm over it. As I've said, the front end of this draft class is crazy deep, so even at 4th overall we'd be getting a total stud who has all the makings of a cornerstone player.

I was thinking it could be Glendening, but, realistically, I don't think Yzerman or Blashill wants an interim C. Wearing the C for the Wings is a big deal; the person who officially takes over for Zetterberg is going to be someone who's going to be a cornerstone player for at least five years. That's why it's going to be Alex Pietrangelo.

So the lotto format was announced and I hate it and the NHL is dumb. So much for my galaxy brain "They might try to help the Wings out, because the Wings being bad helps absolutely no one" take.

I agree with Ryan: Like I've said, I generally don't have particularly strong opinions about lotto formatting. But if they go ahead with a 24-team postseason and they don't mirror the hugely boosted Cup chances they're gifting eight teams with hugely boosted odds for the two or three worst teams in the league, they can eat a bag pucks. And, yeah, if you can pull new rules out of your ass for the Crosby draft (because of unusual circumstances), you can do it for the Lafreniere draft (because of unusual circumstances). "You're only upset because you're a Wings fan." I mean, yeah, kinda. This draft was hugely important for us before the season was halted and it's just as hugely important for us here in late May. Given that, I'd interpret a 24-team postseason + no huge boost for us re: lotto odds as a spiritual mini-sequel to the implementation of the salary cap (and the bulls*** retroactive cap recapture penalty). "We can't sign off on a plan that helps out the Wings (and Sens), but let's add eight teams to the playoffs. Oh, also, you'd best believe we want some playoff teams to be eligible for the lotto. We're gonna have our cake and eat it. The Wings, well, maybe they shouldn't have sucked so bad." (Flashback to salary cap negotations: "It's simply not fair that this league has a few haves and a whole lot of have-nots. Detroit shouldn't have been able to buy a Cup, but that's exactly what they did in 2002. We're laboring under a system that favors some franchises and penalizes others. We need to erase that gap. We need parity.") This didn't bother me a week ago, as I honestly believed that the playoffs weren't even going to happen -- and that even if they did, it probably wouldn't be 24 teams. While everything is still up in the air, I can now see that there is a very clear path to the Wings getting shafted if The Majority is so inclined.

Indeed. Top-4 pick + Lots of picks + Yzerman's decent track record of finding good players outside of the prime 1st round territory = HYPE! We have to crush this draft; this rebuild needs a serious shot in the arm.

I don't read The Athletic, but I know a number of you do, so here's a piece: How much the NHL Draft lottery could affect the Red Wings' rebuild timeline [The Athletic]

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities [Dobber Prospects]

I've officially lost my patience. Governors need to get their s*** straight. I'm in agreement with those saying organizations have to choose playoffs or lotto. I'm not 100% convinced that's the real holdup...but, yeah, it probably is. Or is at least a big part of it.

OMG. How have I never tried this??